Amateur Radio In 2050
Charles (KC8VWM)
on
February 16, 2005
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Hams have historically been tinkers. We have developed many of the communication technologies seen in use today.
While many think of amateur radio as a hobby that involves people who tinker with tubes, oscillator coils and transformers; I am left wondering what will happen in the next 40 - 50 years for Amateur Radio.
Will it be "radio" as we know it today or will we evolve into a new communications evolution?
So what may be in the future for ham radio?
For example, will tomorrow's hams communicate long distances by bouncing modulated light waves from the sun using large dish reflectors into the deep fringes of space?
Will we find a way to learn to harness the light and gigawatt power of the sun to achieve this powerful communication network in the future if it should even exist?
Perhaps we may use a form of earth vibration modulation technology using Mother Nature as a new communication medium.
Or, we might find a way to communicate using atoms as the vehicle for communications in the future.
Will we be able to use atoms to send signals by compressing packets somehow into these atoms and then sending them over long distances along a narrow beam of light?
Who knows?
As we evolve into the future of Amateur Radio what do you think we will invent? Will the ARRL have new interplanetary DX entities? How do you envision the typical Radio Amateur in 2050?
73
Charles -- KC8VWM
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VE3HBB on February 16, 2005
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Well, I'd love to have a sub-space communicator device.
73 VE3HBB
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KT0DD on February 16, 2005
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The Amateur Spectrum will be auctioned off to Wireless internet services & BPL. Echolink & IRLP etc. will be all that is left, and the only radio involved will be MAYBE 20 fixed channel frequencies on 2 meters for repeater use with Echolink / IRLP. 73.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W9PMZ on February 16, 2005
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"How do you envision the typical Radio Amateur in 2050? "
Still fighting over "code - nocode"......... (sorry I couldn't resist)
73,
Carl - W9PMZ
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by W9PMZ on February 16, 2005
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"How do you envision the typical Radio Amateur in 2050? "
Still fighting over "code - nocode"......... (sorry I couldn't resist)
73,
Carl - W9PMZ
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KQ6XA on February 16, 2005
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Frequency hopping and spread spectrum will be commonplace. Time sharing of spectrum will necessary. 3-dimensional interactive interfaces will replace computer screens and keyboards. Hams will still use microphones for the nostalgia effect. A few morse-historians will be called upon to demonstrate the ancient art during "virtual hamfests".
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KU4UV on February 16, 2005
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I'm not sure I want to think about the condition that the U.S. will be in in another 40 to 50 years, let alone amateur radio. Lord willing I'm not worm food in another 40-50 years, I will be 70 years old in 40 years. I would guess that the median age of ham operators today is probably somewhere around 50, and we aren't getting any younger. If we don't get more young people interested in the hobby, we won't have a future at all! I honestly don't think the amateur radio hobby as we know it will even exist in 40 or 50 years. Perhaps you have should said 15-20 years. We have to face the fact that technology is constantly changing and evolving in our lives, and I'm not sure ham radio will be a viable means of communication in the future like it was say, 45-50 years ago. In the past, say 60 or 70 years ago, it wasn't as easy or as practical to even make a long dustance telephone call in some parts of the country like it is today. If you wanted to relay a message from coast to coast or between continents with relative speed, amateur radio might have been your only option, short of the telegraph wire service, if it was available in your area. Technology has changed all of that. Today we have satellites orbiting overhead that can relay thousands of telephone calls almost instantly. I'm not sure most legislaotrs today feel that ham radio is anything more than a hobby. With the exception of major disasters like the Asian tsunami that wipes out communications in remote regions of the world, I don't know that amateur radio is as viable a means of communication as it once was. Even the most remote aras of the world today, like the Artic, you can still get a telephone call via a satellite, provided you have the means and access to a satellite phone. I'm not saying amateur radio still isn't a viable way to relay messages from remote regions, just that it probably isn't as viable as it once was. I love this hobby, I just hope that it still has a future.
73,
KU4UV
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W1BAK on February 16, 2005
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There will be only one difference. That will be the total and thankfull absence of any and all "you have to do it because we did it" folks. Arguments will be redirected to "my mode is the better mode" posts.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WPE9JRL on February 16, 2005
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It will still be "radio" as we know it today.
We'll all be riding around with electric scooters at hamfests.
Drake Tr-4CW/RIT transceivers will be selling for $500,000 on eBay.
Baby-boomers will still be alive and in their 90's to 120's in age...hanging on to life. Most of the boomers' radios will be sold to pay for medication mail-ordered from Iraq.
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by K0EWS on February 16, 2005
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Hard to tell, really. I remember vividly being a gradeschooler in the early 70s as the moon program ended. Had you told me that by the year 2000 we would have never been back, and no real clear vision for the space program, I would have dismissed it.
Just because the technology has advanced doesn't mean that it will get used the way we envision. Also remember that a lot of places in the world don't have near the technology we do.
My vison for Amateur Radio in the future? I haven't the slightest clue; I just hope that at it's heart it still involves people talking to other people with a radio.
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by W5ESE on February 16, 2005
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Well, look backward 40 years; 1964. I think that
in many respects, an Amateur Radio operator from
1964 would find much of the hobby today very
recognizable. Phone and CW are still the two
most popular modes, though AM use has declined
(though it still has a small but enthusiastic
and, perhaps, growing following).
So I suspect there will be much of Amateur Radio
in 2045 that will be very recognizable.
It's possible I'll still be around in 40 years,
(I'd be in my 80's), so there may be at least
one curmudgeon still pushing around a Vibroplex
Bug and giving anti-code people heck.
73
Scott W5ESE
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K7FD on February 16, 2005
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Still going strong...about six feet through the dirt and above me!
73 John K7FD
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K0RFD on February 16, 2005
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KC8VWM Wrote:
>How do you envision the typical Radio Amateur in 2050?
Dead.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KG4YJR on February 16, 2005
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You'll see stacks of dirty, filthy, scratched up, non-working IC-7800's in the fea-market a.k.a. tailgate areas of hamfests going for about $10,400 or around $50 less than what a new one under warranty would cost.
73
Dave
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N3JBH on February 16, 2005
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In the year 2050 it will be understood that the testing of Morse code proficiency is a relic and outdated. It be realized that code testing is merely a test of a single mode of operation such as rtty ssb psk31 sstv fm am or many of the other modes that are present. It will be understood that while cw was a mode of operation there are far more complex modes that hams use that proficiency test are not required at all and at that time will be dropped
As a requirement.
See folks knowing the code is not any more relevant in today’s world of communications then the knowledge of proper spoke making of wooden wheel’s.
Wow I am not here to blast cw or the cw op’s. I am here to state that the testing and singling out of hams do to a single mode is very outdated for the times. The article talks about advancement’s of radio yet we don’t test for that do we? We test for outdated but yet useful modes and simple rules and regulations.
I find it to be interesting the person with a PhD in engineering can’t have a radio license because he wont or can’t learn Morse code. Yet the technical relevance that this person could bring is astounding today in ham radio.
So maybe just maybe the testing for ham radio will finally catch up the times and we will finally get a grip on the fact that we are using an outdated mode merely as a filtering tool not proficiency standard to which the likes of many great folks can join and prosper in the hobby.
Now please folks feel free to flame your hearts out at me for my poor use of the English language and horrible spelling.
Thanks jeff/n3jbh
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KI4CRA on February 16, 2005
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I don't really know the answer to that one. Hopefully it will be similar to what we have today, although we may still use the mike and the paddles, (keys if you want). I think the computer will have more of an impact on amateur radio. Not necessarily voip or irlp or even echolink. I think there will be more digital modes available than there are now. Who knows? I will be in my late 80's god willing I'll still be operating. Hope to catch you on the air.
Mark
AI4HO
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K1CJS on February 16, 2005
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There will be no communication on the spectrum we use today--there will be new methods and equipment because the radio spectrum will be polluted with power and data transmissions that BPL is only the start of.
There again, there will probably be point to point travel in the blink of an eye and if we want to talk to someone the accepted and polite way of doing so will be to go talk to them in person. Drop a dollar into a travel booth and poof! You're there.
Huh! What?! Oh, excuse me, I just woke up! :-)
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AC0H on February 16, 2005
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Ham Radio in 2050 will more than likely be a namby-pamby, panty-waisted, whiny, internet linked, barely recognizable ghost of its former fabulous self.....or.....a roger beep, "10-4 good buddy what's yer 20", over-run by CBers and the great unwashed hoard, sewer.
Anybody else for making the tests easier?
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by N3JBH on February 16, 2005
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((by AC0H on February 16, 2005 Ham Radio in 2050 will more than likely be a namby-pamby, panty-waisted, whiny, internet linked, barely recognizable ghost of its former fabulous self.....or.....a roger beep, "10-4 good buddy what's yer 20", over-run by CBers and the great unwashed hoard, sewer.
Anybody else for making the tests easier?))
I personally don’t believe we need to make any test easier. But merely test to standards that are relevant to today’s standards. Circuit logic ‘ design’ Rf principles’ and standard engineering principles of electronic and radio wave propagation would be better standards to be testing to.
How many extra class operators today even know how to build a phasing harness?
Design a proper tank circuit’ or even properly load an amp or neutralize tubes.
I don’t believe we need to make any test simpler at all. I believe we need to move testing to a more relevant standard that is inline with the standard’s and practices that the state of the art of the technology has evolved. And I bet that scares the living hell out of some them ole farts that say learn code become a real ham. My response there is learn the logic the rules and the standard’s them become a ham. Thank you this is jeff/n3jbh
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by KX8N on February 16, 2005
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With the bitterness that I've seen coming from older hams towards newer ones, I see the numbers dwindling to less than 100,000 hams in the U.S. 45 years from now.
I'm not being sarcastic, nor am I trying to start an argument, but I honestly think that the bottom is going to drop out over that period of time.
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by WB2WIK on February 16, 2005
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Beats me, I'm sure I'll be dead.
But I'll bet CW is still actively used in 2050, and many hams will still smell bad at hamfests.
And we still won't be able to control propagation, the weather, or religious zealots.
WB2WIK/6
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by SWANMAN on February 16, 2005
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There will be Echolink version 98.1.1 and folks will STILL argue that it's not real ham radio!
There will be folks arguing that the 'new' digital modes are better than the 'old' digital modes.
The 'fan dipole' guy will be the latest installment in the "Dead Electrical Dudes" series.
My Icom can STILL beat-up your Kenwood!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W1BAK on February 16, 2005
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To AC0H...: What makes you better than someone who has chosen to use citizen band as a hobby? Or bone collecting...or any other past-time that is a pleasant escape from work pressures. Why must you belittle someone who doesn't share your choice of hobbies? Were you born better than them? Are you smarter? Please list for all of us the reasons that gives you the right to speak ill of someone you don't even know. All of us present and former cbr's would like to see your list.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W2NSF on February 16, 2005
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I'll just address the equipment I'm SURE will be available then.
Modular will be the thing.
You'll have one rig.
It will be a basic chassis and there will be competing "UNIVERSAL" modules available.
You want 100W? Buy the basic xmtr module from Alinco.
200W? Buy a Yaesu module.
400W? Try out the ICOM module.
KW? The TenTec module, of course.
You want IF DSP? Buy the module from Kenwood.
HF + 6m + 2m + 70cm + etc. Buy the modules, from???, etc.
Need more power to run all this stuff? Buy the module from Astron.
You'll be able to mix and match the modules, so no matter what your budget is, your hybrid rig will be the best your wallet can afford at the time.
eBay will be full of these modules, as folks abandon them when upgrading.
Oh, yes, that little fuel cell under your desk will be all you need to keep it on the air, no matter what emergency hits you.
Antennas?
Nothing different.
Hard to do believe anything will be more creative than we already have today, unless someone discovers how to suspend the laws of physics.
(Although maybe a 6-bander that glows a different color on each band when transmitting would be cool. It'd keep your neighbors entertained.)
OK, it was just a thought...
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by W4FSK on February 16, 2005
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Ham radio is evolving into two separate camps: the good ol' boy ragchew network, and the uber-emergency commandos.
The ragchew network bunch is dying out. The uber-emergency commandos only want one thing: to be in some sort of governmental position. To them ham radio is a means to an end...and a temporary one at that, until they get their uber-emergency commando wings. After that, they're gone.
So what will be left?
I see the decline in numbers happening over the next twenty years, followed by a no-testing initiative. Ten years after that, there will be a no-license initiative--similar to the automatic authorization CB enjoys today. As the ranks continue to dwindle, spectrum will be sold off, and ham radio will become more akin to pirate radio than anything else. Conventional voice will be all but abandoned in favor of digital modes.
And surprisingly, CW will once again find favor as a "lost" language that few know how to speak. CW operators will find themselves in much the same position as the Navaho "code talkers" in WWII--in posession of thier own little private code.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W7AIT on February 16, 2005
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* Since very few people are getting licenses, the number of hams will continue to drop.
* The bands will become emptier.
* Some bands will be taken away by the government. I see 160, 80/75, 60, 30, 12 meters going away completely. 10 and 6 meters will be reduced in size. 2 meters might stay the same. 220 MHZ will be eliminated. 440 will be reduced. 1.2 GHZ and above will either shink in size or be eliminated and given to commercial.
* There will be a small niche groups of specialized users.
* There will be a niche group of homebrewers.
* SSB and FM will be the dominat modes.
* AM & CW will have its niche die hard users.
* Digital modes will increase slightly but not become a dominate mode.
* The ARRL will be the dominate organization but continue to lose effectiveness, have no political clut, and the FCC will consider Ham Radio just a HOBBY not a Service (they already see it this way -you guys who say it's still a "service" are living in the dark ages). The FCC will dictate how the the HOBBY will be run.
* The FCC won't have hams in its ranks and will become ham radio unfriendly or at least non supportive.
* Those individuals in the general public who are really fascinated by radio will still seek out Ham Radio as a hobby.
* The general public will continue to see local neighborhood ham operators as a nucience and protet ham antennas.
* Hams wanting antennas of any size will have to (continue to) live in less desirable neighborhoods (we are already there on that one) because the general public doesn't want antennas and towers in their neighborhoods.
* I'll personally still be on the air with some kind of station, even if it's just a HT from the nursing home (I'll be 104 years old then - if I make it that far). WHY, because I am and always will be facinated by radio and the hobby give me a way to enjoy.
W7AIT
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by KX8N on February 16, 2005
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"Beats me, I'm sure I'll be dead."
See, Steve, alot of hams have that attitude, and that's part of the problem.
Alot of older hams today couldn't care less about the future of ham radio. They don't care if they welcome in newcomers, or turn them away. If Jimmy down the street gets his license, some guy calls him a lid because he made a mistake on the air (when nobody bothered to give him a little guidance), who cares if Jimmy sells his radio and never uses his license again?
Who cares, right?
I used to care. 50 years from now, I'll be in my early 80's (God willing). People my age are the future of ham radio. But I've become so jaded by the politics, cliques, and hatred towards anyone licensed in the past 15 years that I haven't even turned the radio on in months. People don't care what's going to happen after they aren't around, and it makes it tough on those of us who will be.
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by KY1V on February 16, 2005
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I will turn on my brand new $49,739.68 Icomsuwood holographic communications device and tune the band. As I tune in a distant signal, a hologram representing an image of the person I am receiving will suddenly appear above my radio.
I call the distant station, identifying my radio by my call sign. A hologram will appear above his radio representing my physical image. As we speak to one another, the holograms will convey the digitized voices decoded from each transmission.
It will be as if the person magically appears in front of you and speaks to you directly.
The radio can decode in any mode, including CW. The no codes will love it because they won't have to copy CW, just listen to the hologram decoding it for them via the image of the sender.
The hologram data could either be digitally encoded in the signal, or more practically looked up in a central registration database as all radios will be connected to the Internet.
Isn't it a fascinating world upon which we live?
David ~ KY1V
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by N9LYA on February 16, 2005
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By 2050 we HAMS will have went from the
1900 100% wireless
2000 50% Wireless 50% Wireline
2050 100% Wireline
Talk about a backwards step for Ham Radio..
The Telephone has in just over 100 years has started going wireless(Moble and cellular phones).. At least they knew what direction to head...
In 2050 it will be Echolink, IRLP, WINLINK, all via BPL..
Good By to WIRELESS..
What a mixed up bunch we are..
73 Jerry N9LYA
ARRL Net Manager Indiana Section.
http://www.n9lya.com
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by AB8TM on February 16, 2005
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NEWINGTON, CT, Feb 16, 2050--Code Requirement lifted for hams living under the surface of Mars...US hams now only have to know 2wpm, which Senator Chelsea Clinton calls unconstituional.
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by K3AN on February 16, 2005
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At that time, Chelsea Clinton will be one of the younger U.S. senators!
To answer the original question, I think the licensed amateur service will be gone before 2050, but freebanding will be alive and well.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WB2WIK on February 16, 2005
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KX8N, I hear you, but I don't agree with you.
I do nothing but encourage youngsters to become hams, if they have a flicker of interest. I've taught code classes every year since 1988, and some years before that when I had time. I provide rigs for free loan to new hams who are kids and need something to start out with. I don't know how I could be more "up" on youth in ham radio.
But still, in 2050 I'll probably be dead, or close to it!
That you've become so discouraged that you haven't turned on your radio equipment in a long time is too bad, but it's no one else's fault. If one doesn't have the initiative to do something, no outside influence will alter that.
When I was a new ham of 13, and a student in 8th grade, I didn't receive any particular encouragement from anybody. It's just something I wanted to do. And I convinced one friend and classmate to do it with me, so I wouldn't be alone in the endeavor. There wasn't any internet to propagate crappy attitudes, but there were other resources which offered the same crappy attitudes at the time -- including lots of old-time hams who were my first contacts and weren't very interested in working a 13 year-old kid. When I made my first "phone" contacts, most of the hams I worked thought I was a girl and that they shouldn't waste their time talking with me, since I was too young to have anything to talk about.
That was 40 years ago.
Not much has changed, except that now we have the internet where mean people can spread their ill words faster and farther without needing transmitters or antennas.
He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches...
WB2WIK/6
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by W9OY on February 16, 2005
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We will have moved to probability modulation. We will know we are talking but we won't be quite sure what we are saying, when we are saying it, or who we are saying it to. It will be a great boon to communications because we can probably time our transmission to co-incide with periods of no qrn and no qrm.
Instead of designing radios, people will be designing algorythms as to when the DX will probably be there for a contact. The guys who design the best algorythms will be on the honor roll. The rest of us will probably not be on the roll.
I'll probably be dead. You probably will be also.
For us dead guys, the probability of our getting on the honor roll in 2050 will be close to zero.
73 W9OY
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KG4YJR on February 16, 2005
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It will be up to us, all of us, young and old, pro-code or no-code to make sure our grandkids and great grandkids have "fan dipole" in their vocabulary.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KY1V on February 16, 2005
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WB2WIK/6 wrote:
"...but there were other resources which offered the same crappy attitudes at the time -- including lots of old-time hams who were my first contacts and weren't very interested in working a 13 year-old kid."
A very good reason to operate CW. When I was a novice, I worked DXCC, WAC, WAS and WPX in less than three months. I made thousands of contacts with people whom had no idea I was 14 years old.
Don't get me wrong, I prefer phone even though I still operate CW, but there is a time and place for everything.
On another note, after I made my 2050 prediction for ham radio, I went back and read all the posts...am I the only one with any vision here? Why all the doom and gloom?
Shed the negative attitudes. It holds one back from achieving greatness!
David ~ KY1V
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by K0RGR on February 16, 2005
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Maybe it will look something like this, and maybe it won't:
You get into your hydrogen-powered personal transportation device in February of 2045, ready for a half-hour trip.
As the electric heater begins to warm the tiny cockpit of your motorcycle-sized vehicle, you decide to check out the local ham radio nets for activity. Your intelligent transceiver, which you have personally programmed to function as you like, scans the local radio-WAN for activity. You've added some of the nodes to this WAN yourself, and you're proud of its coverage.
It finds a digital voice QSO in progress, and displays the callsigns and locations of the stations involved. You press a button to listen in on the conversation, as you pull out of the driveway and onto the automated motorway. After listening a while, you decide to join the conversation, so you press the 'break in' button, which will send a polite indicator to the other two ops asking if you can join them. They both reply affirmatively, and your mike becomes active.
The roundtable works well, until you reach a nearby canyon, where your microwave signals will be blocked. At this point, your intelligent radio kicks into high gear. First, it makes note of the QSO-identifier for the roundtable you were in. Then, it automatically fires up on HF, and searches for an open frequency with a net gateway on it. Once a connection is established on HF, it uses digital voice on HF to reconnect you to your roundtable via the Internet.
You sign off from your roundtable after you arrive at your destination. You think that maybe for the return trip, you'll manually select HF, and try calling 'CQ' just like they did back in 'the old days'. Maybe you can exchange some videos or some useful radio programs with other hams while you're driving home. Or, you could try surfing the worldwide ham digital network, too. At least, the car will do all the driving so you are free to play with the radios.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by EXWA2SWA on February 16, 2005
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In 2050, I'll only be 105 and still working CW, still trying to gain respectable speed.
I will most likely have had to replace the spring on my Bug.
Finding 6146's for the TS830S will finally have become too expensive, so the IC730 will have to be the main HF rig. Radios that glow in the dark will be anachronistic.
CheapQSL's will have holographic images, and FISTS members will think number 100,000 is an old-timer.
Wire antennas will be suspended by a miracle-substance that will not stretch, bend, become brittle, conduct, couple or detune.
New hams will discover that copying code with a hand-held writing instrument can be more fun than they thought.
And the hams who operate several new & as-yet-undreamed-of modes will still be asking, "Why didn't I learn code when I was younger?"
Rigs built after 2025 will have a lid-zapper button to direct a 1 Megawatt pulse directly into the miscreant's receiver, smoking it and leaving a hologram asking, "Ain't you ever heard of asking 'QRL?' "
And the fan dipole will be perfected.
Hope to see you there ...
73,
Jim KE5CXX
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WR8D on February 16, 2005
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I hope to be in heaven by then. The rest of you will have the responsibility of keeping the torch aflame. Some of you paint a very bleak picture. One thing is for certain. If we keep letting fools change the rules for profit it will look and sound more like the filth on the cb band now than our hambands and they are getting bad enough as it is. 73, RF forever! WR8Dawg:
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KG6UZB on February 16, 2005
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Within the next half century the era of the smart antenna will come of age. Antenna wire will be routinely constructed with a coating of millions of picoprocessor chips that will act in concert to shape an antenna’s RF pattern for maximal effect. Gains of 60–80 decibels will be commonplace and “automatic antenna tuners” will be devices that automatically target your signal to a desired QTH. As a result, we will all become QRP operators, and multi-kilowatt amplifiers will become relics of the past. Naturally, this will be a very welcome development, since after 5 long decades of recourse depletion and energy industry deregulation the cost of operating QRO will go through the roof.
My apologies to the first law of thermodynamics, which I have undoubtedly violated :)
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VE3HBB on February 16, 2005
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I still want a sub-space communicator. Think about it: instant real-time communications with anyone equally equipped anywhere within the galaxy! All we have to do to make the dream a reality is to find some way to re-write the laws of physics.
:)
Charles VE3HBB
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N4ZOU on February 16, 2005
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Cold Fission will become a reality and will become the power source for Turbine Dipole Antenna systems leaving Fan Dipole technology as a relic of the past.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N7UQA on February 16, 2005
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Amateur radio will still be around, the grumpy old farts will be dead and young blood will take their place. All new radios will be software defined, but there will still be legacy radios and modes still being used on the bands. Things like IRLP, winlink and Microsoft will be long dead. Field Day will still continue and the ARRL will still be around. The Internet will be vastly different and sites like e-Ham will be extinct. I for one will be 92 by the year 2050, I just hope I'll still be active then.
Craig - N7UQA
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NI0C on February 16, 2005
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N3JBH said: "I find it to be interesting the person with a PhD in engineering can’t have a radio license because he wont or can’t learn Morse code."
Fascinating indeed! What you mean, of course, is have a radio license with HF privileges. The operative word in your statement is "wont."
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2055
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by K4JSR on February 16, 2005
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I am with Mr. Katz. In 50 years I will either be so
SK or a very creaky 114. If it be the latter, I will be at the virtual hamfests looking for T-17 microphones or J-38 keys. If it be the former, you will hear my sepulchral pleas across the ether,
"CQ ectoplasm". Of course I'll have at least three sheets to the wind, as would any good operator involved in a "ghost to ghost net"!!!
I just hope that my AGC will have a slow decay!!!
Ta-ta for now. I have to run home to Mummy!
73 Cal, K4JSR
PS. Just remember what Beethoven is doing now.
DECOMPOSING!!! :-P
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 16, 2005
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Oh, Ham Radio will sadly be long dead by then. If it does somehow survive, there will probably still be traffic nets passing on greetings in the slowest method avalible.
K6BBC
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JSR on February 16, 2005
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The avuncular Mr. Katz sed, "But still, in 2050 I'll probably be dead, or close to it!"
Steve, not to worry. We will still QRS for you! :-P
73, Cal K4JSR
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N9LYA on February 16, 2005
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Charles, Why limit your SubSpace Communications just to this one Galaxy... why be so narrow minded...
Spread out man... The universe is limitless..
73 Jerry n9lya
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N6PEH on February 16, 2005
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The kids will all be into ham radio. It will be a big "Retro" movement. Yea, why not.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VE3UFI on February 16, 2005
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In an effort to eliminate stupid people the government will make it mandatory to have a super chip surgically implanted in our brains. It will be a powerful computer with wireless capability and contain all your personal info. We’ll all be communicating with each other in 1’s and 0’s at 200Gbps …… No test required.
With any luck, I’ll be dead by then.
Imagine how scary 2005 would look to someone from 1950.
(Damn I was born in 1950)
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N0TONE on February 16, 2005
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Hams will still wear onions under their arms
Hams will still confuse "service" with "technology"
Hams will still inexplicably be poorer at actual communications than non-hams
Hams will still have worse spelling than non-hams
US hams will still behave completely ignorantly when it comes to understanding that it's an international hobby
I sure won't be around. To the best of my knowledge, if I am still alive in 2050, I'll have set a new record for human longevity, Methuselah notwithstanding.
AM
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KT8K on February 16, 2005
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Nice starter thoughts, Charles.
Almost all of the rest of you who commented have turned this fun and interesting topic into ONE BIG TROLL SESSION (disappointing!) ... I can see that the decline of amateur radio is in most of your minds (in different forms, granted). That doesn't convince me that any of it is a reality, or necessarily likely.
In 50 years a lot of the concerns expressed above will still be around, or will have parallels, and will be no more valid than they are now, but that doesn't interest me, and isn't in the spirit of this article.
So ... what about ham radio in 50 years?
I imagine the first Worked All Planets award, with asteroid hunters a possibility.
I imagine gravity wave transceivers, as well as holograph projecters as an enhancement to ATV.
I imagine the commercial abandonment of HF as "too unreliable and variable", leaving us even more room for HF operations (not less).
I imagine amateur radio contests and record-pursuits being tracked in the news just like sailing events are today.
I imagine homebrewing to be little-reduced from today, and software tinkering (with single chip software-defined radios a reality) playing a much bigger part in the hobby.
I imagine the transeiver-on-a-chip, similar to when Curtis came out with the keyer-on-a-chip (this may be only a decade or so away, actually). Wiring the I/O and tweaking the open-source programming will be the homebrew effort. Something like a cellphone may be an implant at birth, but people will still get great enjoyment out of CW, QRP, moonbounce and meteor scatter, dxpeditioning and backpacking, HF nets and contesting.
I don't think the future will be as much a reflection of the concerns of the writers above as they apparently think. I believe hams will still be inventing at every level, and making the theoretical into the practical in ways that commercial interests never could, and never will. Elmering and clubs will still be two of the mainstays of the hobby, as they are today.
I expect much to change, except for aspects of the human animal, which change much more slowly. (I guess that means the grumblers, doom-sayers, nay-sayers, zealots, trolls, and, fortunately, the kind and helpful sorts of people here on eham will still be around in one form or another. Such is life, but it's all good.)
73 to all de kt8k - Tim
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by ALEX_NS6Y on February 16, 2005
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Feh.
If "Peak Oil" is a reality, we may end up being the backbone of communication again - or some of the ones capable of building what comms systems we'll be able to have.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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HMMMMMM!!!!!!!!
Now if we can convince the ARRL to give us DXCC credits for working rare DX over either IRLP or ECHO-LINK then HEY!!! technology is great!!!
:-)))
Jim/ee
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K0IZ on February 16, 2005
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Our HF bands will be expanded greatly since HF freq's will be considered obsolete by most everyone else. Fan dipoles will be popular.
Conversely, we will be fighting to hang onto remaining slivers of microwave bands.
Morse code will be illegal since computers will not be able to decipher such slow data streams, thus making code subversive.
However code vs no-code will still be an active Forum topic.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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K0IZ,
OBSOLETE???? HMMMMMM!!!
Was'nt that the reason the the U.S Federal Government gave us the HF spectrum in the first place back in 1921??? It WAS CONSIDERED USELESS???
Somethings just never change!!!
Jim/ee
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by ALEX_NS6Y on February 16, 2005
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"HAMS WILL STILL WEAR ONIONS UNDER THEIR ARMS"
LOLLOLOLOLOOLLOLOLOLOL!!!!!! MUA-AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! GOOD ONE!
But you get it wrong, you mean maybe onions soaked in ammonia?
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 16, 2005
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K2WH,
Why so miserable? Would you care to talk it out with the group?
K6BBC
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by ALEX_NS6Y on February 16, 2005
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Hot dang I'll be 87, I might just live to see it.
Quit beer 2 weeks ago and not looking back. Buzz lasts 2 hours, laziness lasts the whole 24! After a while that routine gets OLD. Now I'm up earlier in the AM, and getting kits built yee-haa! A nice change like this, lots of veggies and excercise, and I might be able to still work a key or a subspace mic or something.
Let's take up a challenge to, for those of us for whom it's actuarily possible, to live to see it so we can all laugh at how wrong we were.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by G3SEA on February 16, 2005
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I think UHF/SHF will have gone totally commercial.
As far as Space comms is concerned it looks like we'll still be limited by the speed of Light but you never know.
I think there will still be folk dabbling in the hobby.
EchoLink will probably develop into a very high speed audio / video / data mode still incorporating RF/ Internet.
I for one look forward to the technologies of the future both commercial and hobby.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AD7DB on February 16, 2005
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What's it going to be like in 50 years?
Look back on what it was like 50 years ago, 1955.
They were using CW, AM, this newfangled SSB mode, RTTY, lots of fun stuff.
Much has changed in 50 years: new modes, new bands, even space communications. But we still use CW, AM, SSB, and RTTY.
I think ham radio will be alive and even more exciting in 50 years. I wish I could stick around to see it, but I'd be 96 by then and I'm not sure, even with the strides that medicine has done in 50 years, that I'll still be alive.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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DB,
What alotta guys presently are missing out on here are those who are on RTTY with COMPUTERS instead of the "OLD MACHINES" like the Model 12/15/19/26/32/Keilnschmitt teleprinters where the "SOUND" was so awesome, it really made you sit up and take notice, but alas with the advent of "Computer-technology" that special mechanical sound is GONE forever!!!
OH WELL!!!
Jim/ee
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KI9A on February 16, 2005
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"The Amateur Spectrum will be auctioned off to Wireless internet services & BPL. Echolink & IRLP etc. will be all that is left, and the only radio involved will be MAYBE 20 fixed channel frequencies on 2 meters for repeater use with Echolink / IRLP. 73. "
gee, it only took two replies to have one of these answers? heck, in 1978 as a new novice, the old timers told me there would be no ham radio in 10 years...
73-Chuck KI9A
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Not many left after the bomb
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by WB4M on February 16, 2005
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The nuclear exchange between China and the US of 20 years ago eliminated ham radio from existance. Now the maimed survivors of the great war are only interested in finding something to eat in order to stay alive perhaps one more day. Even the Europeans, who capitulated and surrendered to the advancing Chinese hordes are not allow ham radio, or any other type of method of transmitting a signal. Ham Radio is dead.. and will never be resurrected. The masses have been subdued. The New World Order is in place.. obey the One World Government or be exterminated.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KI9A on February 16, 2005
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"Stupid post and who cares.
K2WH "
then why did you waste your time to post?
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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K2WH,
Everybody else is RIGHT!!! Why frigg'n post anything out here if YOU don't like it??? I'm negative???
HOLY-POOPSHOSKI BATMAN!!!
Get a life!!!
Jim/ee
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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WB4M,
Any "Black-Helicopter" I see in the sky is "FAIR-GAME"!!!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NL7W on February 16, 2005
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Your battleship TS-520S will look a little worse for the wear, but continue to work just fine. Hopefully, my darned body will be in the same shape... will be 79 years. 73 from Anchorage, Alaska.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KQ6XA on February 16, 2005
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Amateur Radio In The Year 2050
First, The GOOD NEWS:
SUPERCONDUCTORS in your DC-to-Light transceiver wristwatch make it capable of near-solar-system-wide direct communications without repeaters, using a fusion battery the size of a peanut. The words "Watt" and "Ohm" are relegated to historic holographic essays.
The SUPERCONDUCTING wideband antenna in your wristwatch for the "LF/HF/VHF/UHF/microwave/terahertz" band is more than 100% efficient... with a gain of 40dB over the entire band.
Now, The BAD NEWS:
A group of teenage hams experimenting with sub-space communications are kidnapped by religious terrorists of the Creationist Islamic Christian Jihad. The cult's leader, a mini-mullah robot minister named Dr. Eugene Robertson-Kohmeni uses them to communicate holographically with the revered television prophets of the 1980s. The teenagers escape by reprogramming one of their own RFID tattoos to send a secret message in an old mode called PactorIII. The terrorists are taken into custody by the Internet Police Robotic SWAT Team. The Earth Government Corporation's CEO uses the incident as a pretext to abolish all non-Corporate use of the radio spectrum.
99% of the RF spectrum from DC-to-light has been leased out to The Corporation anyway, mostly used for RFID tag-nodes which are now being imbedded in the DNA of all newly-manufactured humans, manufactured goods (made by prison labor in the Antarctic factories), and soy nutrient units (food grown and processed in... you guessed it... the same Antarctic factories).
More GOOD NEWS:
Fortunately for hams, the ARRL, fueled by the recent sale of its Newington City headquarters W1AW station property for 10 billion credits, has made a bulk-buy in the latest Earth Government Corporation spectrum auction; they are renting out 3kHz vacation time-shares on the only remaining RF spectrum that nobody else wants... 27 MHz. A few hams in an Alaska Beach nursing home trade in their ARRL life membership credits to rent a 30 minute share-channel on 27.185MHz at midnite, which they use to send contest exchanges in slow morse CW between rooms.
Bonnie KQ6XA
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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Bonnie ! Bonnie!
You need a "MAN" because you have some issues that can't be resolved here!!!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N6AJR on February 16, 2005
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Look back at qst 50 years ago and they are lamenting how ham radio will never be the same etc, ( going from am to ssb) so I think we will still be arguing over the fact that ham radio will never be the same..thank goodness.
a minimum station will be true dc to dalight and a variation of the steppir antennas will be the norm in verts and beams, with probably a slider on the boom to adjust the span of the boom. and every one will have computer controll, auto tune on the rigs and amps, and cw will still be a good mode.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N6AJR on February 16, 2005
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btw I will be aprox 106 in 50 years, so if you think I'm grumpy now... just wait......
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by ZL3NB on February 16, 2005
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WB2WIK/6 Wrote:
"Beats me, I'm sure I'll be dead.
But I'll bet CW is still actively used in 2050, and many hams will still smell bad at hamfests.
And we still won't be able to control propagation, the weather, or religious zealots."
Steve...that has to be the best summary I have ever read on these forums on any subject...You hit it directly on the nail with your thoughts! You got a talent for humor my friend...Hi Hi
As for this op....echoing the same comments as those above... will be long cold dead with a cw key tangled amongst my finger bones.
But honestly looking at how technology has left the more common newer cracker Jack Box licensed Ham behind especially since the early 1980's Im not too sure what to think of where radio will be in 40 to 50 years.
The number of hams on the Internet is distrubing...Yes its another avenue to use for communications but what about HF/VHF/UHF and SHF...and apart from the normal SSB/CW there's the digital modes...plus the Satellites.
Just the evolution of the Digimodes in the past 10 years leads me to believe "we aint see nothing yet" to what will become common mode communication...but sitting chatting away on the internet Im afraid will kill this hobby off and thats the truth...For me this has been a wonderful hobby since 1966 with being able to have a fiddle in building odds and sods and seeing them either work and blow up too...plus just enjoying the many modes and bands we as hams are privileged to have..but then again in 40 years Ill just be NZOTC member #1030 SK by then.
73's
Bill ZL3NB
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 16, 2005
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Bill,
No matter what the IPSO-FACTO "USA_HAMS" expouse INTL Morse ain't never gonna dissapear!!! How many don't want to spend the TIME to learn??? You know it's not OUR loss but their's!!!
Come on "Boys & Girls" it's ONLY 5WPM now, how DUMB can you really be or lazy for that matter???
Jim/ee
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The more things change....
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by W8KQE on February 16, 2005
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I don't purport to know with any certainty what Amateur Radio will be like 50 years from now, but i'm sure by then Icom will have released their 'IC-756PRO 49' and we'll still have a BUSH in office!
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RE: The more things change....
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by KX8N on February 16, 2005
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If the same "who cares" attitude was taken by those who elemered you guys, what would ham radio be like today?
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by RADIOBOB on February 16, 2005
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Ham radio will long be gone, and over. There will be a very small group of bands, and they will not be the same ones as today. There will be a few die-hards, that will still get on the air. SSB will be what AM is today, and Digital Voice will rule the day, along with newer digital modes. Yes CW will still be used, because it is a challenge to learn, and the real people who are interested in ham radio will enjoy the challenge.
Kenwood will be out of ham radio all together.
Ten Tec will be ancient history, as will Elecraft.
Icom and Yaesu ( who is really Vertex / Standard ), will basically be selling commercial rigs to hams, that have been “altered” to meet the FCC rules. The FCC will make it much harder to modify what ever rigs are out there.
Two new ham radio companies will be started.
AES will be folded and a fond ?? memory, the same for HRO. Texas towers will not last even 15 more years. Most major and minor ham radio stores as we know them today will be gone within 20 years. Why. All the owners are getting older. They will retire, or pass on. Who will want to absorb the debt, and purchase a business based on a “hobby”, that is failing. The stores will fold as the owners ……..
There will be no more radios with face plates, except for HT’s and mobile stuff ( maybe ). Home based radios will all be interfaced with a computer. The processing power will allow for radios that we can only dream of today.
The FCC will be renamed to ???
You will still be able to find parts to fix up that old Drake, Collins, Hellicrafters, etc…. Not easy to find, But you won’t be able to fix any of the rigs made from 1985 on, unless you find a basket case that has working parts you need.
Underground radio will be BIG deal.
There will be no way to put up any kind of antennas in populated areas. (1) There will be no trees, since homes will be built on 1/3 ac plots, or people will be living in glorified apartments, call town homes. (2) CC&R’s will be everywhere, and be even stricter.
Towers will be forbidden in all but the most ( very most ) remote places of the country. After all by then all other forms of communications will be via satellite. Cell phone towers will be a thing of the past.
The ARRL will be long out of existence, because it refused to really represent its members, refused to really explain how they spend the members dues, and they refused to TAKE OFF THOSE DAMM SUITS, AND TIES. ( people can’t related to the primary officers even now ).
There will be more Cb’ers in the world than hams, and they will all be active.
Yes there is good news.
AMSAT will really have several birds in orbit that are working 110%, providing around the world coverage 24/7/365
And oh yes, since a Drake TR4-CW-RIT did sell for over 3000 dollars this past weekend, I'm sure they may very well sell for $ 500,000 in 2050.
For folks that don't thinks it's so, check out the link below.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=4674&item=5750057681
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K5VR on February 16, 2005
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>>How do you envision the typical Radio Amateur in 2050?
In my case, I'd be turning 93 and probably still saving for the latest version of a Begali paddle !
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 16, 2005
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"AMSAT will really have several birds in orbit that are working 110%, providing around the world coverage 24/7/365"
Here in lies the problem – and perhaps it is a generational issue. I don’t want Ham Radio to be easy. The volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of propagation is what makes radio wonderful. I tried an Internet VOIP program a few years ago. The first guy I talked to was in St. Petersburg Russia. The “copy” if one wants to call it that, was perfect. Big deal. The software was deleted. I love the challenge of radio. The thrill of working a station on the other side of the world cannot be described unless one has the radio magic love in the heart. Unfortunately, fewer and fewer are exposed because the world of shortwave listening is dieing. How many of us long time hams were first introduced to the hobby by listening to shortwave? I loved listening, but to talk – to actually be ON shortwave! Sadly, that world has left us.
K6BBC
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W5HTW on February 16, 2005
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Mostly it will be transfer of porno photos, directions for making narcotics, and how to avoid whatever US government may be left.
All "hams" will be gone and forgotten, and only "HAMS" will remain.
Ed
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AD5GX on February 16, 2005
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It will still definitely be around because there was a reference to Ham Radio on Futurama and that is in the year 3000!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W5HTW on February 16, 2005
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There will be no point in having ham radio - or HAM radio either - as no American will be able to speak, read or write, the language of any other American. We will be back to grunts, groans and motions to try to communicate, since the art of written/spoken language will have died. In fact, if you read some of these ham radio forums, you will find that event is already well on its way to fruition. There will, of course, be no internet, since no-one will be able to write, so why bother. I guess if there is email, we can forward pictures, or very old jokes, but no one will be able to understand the jokes, so again, why bother. A Bachelor's degree will be automatically awarded at age six, and a Doctorate at age 12. Babel will be in full force, as human communication skills head for the basement. No, arrive in the basement; they are already headed there, and at a rapid rate. The only HAM or ham radio that will be at all useful will be ATV.
If there are captions under the photos they, too, will be written in American Babel. That is a combination of leftover English, ancient Spanish, modified Vietnamese, mixed with generous helpings of several flavors of Chinese. If there are any government documents being published at all, the smallest one-page notice will be the size of the book Centennial, for it will have to be in 700 languages.
The IRS will still exist, of course, and will, once a year, parcel out six percent of our gross income for the year to return to us. The rest will go toward massive printing costs.
By 2100 AD, the Mexican border will be at Toronto. Ham radio will be a vaguely-remembered experiment that went awry in the late 1980s, and self-destructed. Except for QRN (if anyone has a receiver to hear it - if a tree falls .... ) there will be no sound at all between 10 kilohertz and 300 megahertz. (Except for a weird CW signal, and no-one knows what CW is, on 6.6 mhz, that sends the same letter over and over, in a random pattern. In 2108 someone will actually find it, and discover it is a spoon falling against a rusty old key, in a remote area of Australia, triggering a solar-powered transmitter that is nearly 90 years old. I will be placed in a museum, with a gravestone over it.)
Social Security will still be trying to decide if it's in good shape or bad, and the new rush of Baby Boomers of the 2050s will have nearly bankrupted it for the 16 billion Americans who are approaching SS age. The burden will fall upon the shoulders of the other 16 billion Americans to work harder to fill the coffers.
Cars will be forbidden in every city in America. Public transportation, in the form of magnetic rail coaches, or moving sidewalks, will the the only form of urban transporation. Personal cars will be permitted only on narrow, rural roads, but few people will be able to drive them as a quart of oil will cost 80 dollars, and a gallon of canned hydrogen will cost 120 Dollars, and there will be cries of price gorging among the hydrogen companies.
The only food will be a pill, taken twice a day, since the huge population explosion has taken up all available farm land, and other resources as well.
Since no-one can communicate, though, all the above will be pointless. Therefore we will retreat to our caves, slaughter a nearby animal, cook it over a fire, and draw pictures of it on the cave walls.
"Ugh. Ham? Ugh. Had ham dinner. Dead Pig. Ugh. Grunt. "
Ed
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K0RFD on February 16, 2005
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KQ6XA wrote:
>A few hams in an Alaska Beach nursing home trade in
>their ARRL life membership credits to rent a 30 minute
>share-channel on 27.185MHz at midnite, which they use to
>send contest exchanges in slow morse CW between rooms.
You sure it would be on 27.185 sending contest exchanges? I am pretty sure they'll still be on 40 meters sending the temperature.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VK5CC on February 16, 2005
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Well if Drakes are worth 500,000 in 50 years time one thing's for sure:COLLINS will be worth at least twice that and still going strong!
73 DE Chris.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K2JX on February 16, 2005
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In 2050 there will be an ARRL contest everyday of the week on all bands, not just weekends ! In the NYC area I will have completed my "WAES" for worked all exit signs, and "WARRCW" for my worked all road rage "CW" award.
A fan dipole will be the antenna of choice for mobile use. CW will still be used, especially since now that terrorists are using old fashioned "morse" instead of personal communicators. No one used CW for 30 or 40 years except the insurgents. That had to change, now you must copy at least 35wpm for the Novice exam.
A D-104 will cost $25,000 on e-Bay, a prehistoric Collins 75A4 in "mint" condition $1.6m, no reserve.
Hams will be allowed to "broadcast" like the ARRL without fear of violating part 97.
The entire 75 meter band will be wholly owned by E-ham.
QRZ.com will hold 75% of 20 meters, the other %25 of 20 meters owned by KenyeasIco LTD.
73, K2JX cu thr
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K2ROK on February 16, 2005
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Pretty cool topic. I think you have to look back 50 years and see where we are today -- and then you are able to project more accurately -- or seriously in some cases...anyway...
In 50 years I definately think we will still bounce RF off the various layers of the atmosphere, but it will be high-quality, compressed digital voice and/or video. Embedded in the signal will be your call-sign and any other data you wish the other amateur to access, such as your location or typical QRZ.com-type data. SSB will be as popular as AM is today on HF -- hardly any use except for a small number of dedicated enthusiasts. Full duplex will be the norm also -- no more one-at-a-time QSO's. This new digital mode will render analog obsolete, but we will still have that option. Our digital modes will not be affected by analog SSB or AM for that matter...we won't even notice it there. Like I said, true quality live video (no more slow scan) will be possible and gaining popularity (probably in 20 years actually).
Our radios will be always connected on-line and all logging will automatic, if we wish. QSL-ing will be instant and eQSLs will be the norm, as paper will be out. Our rigs will always be able to exchange data and update each other's QSO logs.
Speaking of HF radios -- the Yaesu 817 is a peek into the way of the future. Smaller yet still versitile. Most of us will use 100 watts or much less -- probably 20 watts will be the norm because of the effeciency of our new digital modes. Batteries will be more efficient and appearing in more and more "817-like" rigs.
Rigs will get smaller and we'll easily work HF digital from HTs -- and also work the VHF bands.
Speaking of VHF -- FM will be out. Again, digital will come on-board and the spectrum will be reduced. Repeaters will still be around, but not like we have today -- no more analog. HTs will be about the size of a Yaesu VX-2 -- about the smallest manageable size. Again, they will connect on-line and be able to transmit callsign and GPS-type data routinely.
The ARRL will be there -- but may undergo a name change.
Testing will be one test for all access -- no CW requirement. It will be all technical and the license will be good for life...but expensive. The test itself will be probably done on-line through some sort of verification and secure program. Your license will be active immediately, once the credit card data is uploaded.
Remote listening and operating will be routine and considered the norm.
Kenwood will drop out of the ham market completely, Yaesu will only offer commercial rigs that will be adaptable to ham use and Icom will remain a strong ham radio company and be the largest. Ten Tec may concentrate on more government contracts but will still be around...if not stronger as digital modes take over.
Bands? We will get more...not less...similar to 60 meters. In fact, most of our operation will be channelized as the bands themselves shrink in size...but we will enjoy channelized frequencies across the HF spectrum and hopefully below 550 Khz.
Well -- that's my take. Nobody knows for sure...
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WA4DOU on February 16, 2005
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I'm sure the we're dated by the time period in which we're born and live. I see nothing attractive or appealing about that futuristic world some of you envision. I'm glad I won't be here to see it.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JSR on February 16, 2005
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OH BOY! Death, doom, gloom, despair, failure of the
Alliance For Progress!! The living will envy the dead!
"It will all be made of ticky-tacky and it will all look the same"!!
Okay folks, let's go Elmer in a bunch of newbies so
they may enjoy this wonderful future!
And I don't care what K2WH said. HE IS STILL A DUDE!
Sigh! Anybody got any extra funeral shrouds they want to sell?
We are all going to die -- If we live long enough!
All of this jabber and we still haven't saved any $$
on our car insurance! :-(
I am outa here before I go stark raving normal!
73, Cal K4JSR
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by RADIOBOB on February 16, 2005
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"OH BOY! Death, doom, gloom, despair, failure of the
Alliance For Progress!! The living will envy the dead!"
That's what you get when you voted for Bush
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by LUIS on February 16, 2005
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I wanna be a licensed ham radio. I'm 13 :D but I can't get it because I haven't received response from the radio club of here, i emailed them.. and also, some equipment is a little expensive for little guys. Also some old hams when you say for example... XE2LCC is listening (That's my wanted callsign. :) ) they ignore you...
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 16, 2005
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Forty-five years from now? Hmmmm....
CW will still be around, of course. Fewer users, though and not a license requirement.
The "digital" fad will be over, by many years. Audio will be analog, to match our analog ears; video will be digital, to match out digital eyes. Computer-to-computer will be something WAY past digital. And only the older hams and white-haired computer people will even know the word "digital".
Rigs will be smaller, but antennas will not, of course. Even 45 years can't erase the laws of physics.
SSB, AM, SSTV will all still be popular, but with much computerization of the equipment. And a lot of it via satellite.
There will be 5 types of license. An entry level, 3 for various interests, and Extra will still be around, covering all types of operation.
BPL will be long dead, of course. Even today, satellite broadband will reach just about everywhere, so there is no real need to put computer signals on wires.
And restoring, maintaining and using old equipment will still be around - just much more sophisticated, due to the difficulty of working on the equipment.
And, hopefully, our "use it once and throw it away" mentality will be long buried, and we will be more responsible stewards of our planet.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 16, 2005
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Error above - that should have been "our" eyes. There will still be typos, too!! :o)
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AB2KT on February 16, 2005
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OK, here's a speculation. It's based on the empirical notion that the best predictor of what tomorrow will be like is what yesterday and today are like already.
What hams do in 2050 will be pretty much what they do now and what they've always done. How they do it will be somewhat different, though, and, in a lot of ways, quite a bit more interesting.
Operating will be a lot less shack-centric, in a couple of respects. This will be both by choice (more fun) and by necessity (increasing restrictions on residences).
For one thing, there will be a lot more portable and offsite operation. It's one trend you can see growing strongly even now. But what will give it a big boost will be different portable power sources like inexpensive fuel cells. Having light, long-lasting power sources means it will be possible to do satisfactory operating from almost anywhere. Among other things, it will be possible to use compromise antennas more effectively since the portable rigs themselves can run at significantly higher power. The impact on HF and VHF operating will be very much like the effect that the Walkman and, now, the iPod have had on listening to music. Take your rig anywhere, operate anytime. It will fit the future lifestyles better, you can only suspect.
For another thing, the tight leash between the operating position and the rig will be severed. Software Defined Radios can be located directly and remotely at their antennas, and linked to the operating position by high-speed network, wired or wireless. No more feedline. Your physical station can be miles away with essentially no loss of signal quality.
For yet another, contesting will become increasingly interesting as technology increases the efficiency of a single operator. Already you can run digital mode programs that handle multiple QSOs. With SDR you will be able to handle multiple QSOs on many bands in several modes at the same time. SO2R? Imagine SONR, where N is as many as you can keep up with at once. Put that together with high-quality high-speed remote access, and you have Radio Sport as an activity as demanding as world-class chess.
What piques my curiosity about this is whether the changes will be spearheaded in the US, or in the rest of the world, which seems to be a lot less hidebound and more willing to try new things, than the ordinary run of US hams.
73
Frank
AB2KT
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by DROLLTROLL on February 16, 2005
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Ultra Wide Band Time Domain Transmissions will be the the common "radio" mode. Anything that generates a carrier, however narrow, will be illegal as it ties up to much valuable spectrum. -Through the earth- and -ends of the galaxy- communications will be accomplished by modulating Gravity Waves. The magnetic poles have shifted.
Ozone created by electric cars now killing millions in the seventh largest country in the world, California.
White minorities still trying to have English recognized as California's third language.
Spotted Owl plague threatens northwestern United States crops and livestock.
Baby conceived naturally...scientists stumped.
Couple petitions court to reinstate heterosexual marriage.
Last remaining Fundamentalist Muslim dies in the American Territory of the Middle East (formerly known as Iran, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon).
Iraq still closed off, physicists estimate it will take at least ten more years before radioactivity decreases to safe levels.
France pleads for global help after being overtaken by Jamaica.
Castro finally dies at age 112; Cuban cigars can now be imported legally, but President Chelsea Clinton has banned all smoking.
George Z. Bush says he will run for President in 2056.
Postal Service raises price of first class stamp to $17.89 and reduces mail delivery to Wednesdays only.
85-year study: Diet and Exercise is the key to weight loss.
Average weight of Americans drops to 250 lbs.
Japanese scientists have created a camera with such a fast shutter speed, they now can photograph a woman with her mouth shut.
Massachusetts executes last remaining conservative.
Supreme Court rules punishment of criminals violates their civil rights.
Average height of NBA players now nine feet, seven inches.
New federal law requires that all nail clippers, screwdrivers, fly swatters and rolled-up newspapers must be registered by January 2036.
Congress authorizes direct deposit of illegal political contributions to campaign accounts.
IRS sets lowest tax rate at 75%.
Florida Democrats still don't know how to use a voting machine
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KL7IPV on February 16, 2005
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I don't believe ham radio will be ham radio. It may be something else but wont resemble anything like we have now. But I beleive that when someone says, "Beam me up", it will happen.
Frank
KL7IPV
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Amateur Radio In 2050--Back to the Future
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by TG9AKH on February 16, 2005
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I suspect that HF and today's modes (CW, SSB, AM and various digital modes) will remain as popular as ever. Amateur Radio will continue to attract those looking for a DX challenge. How about VHF and above? Sure, lots of innovation and experimentation will still be taking place in 2050, although digi modes will likely be commonplace, while analog modes turned into something of a curiosity.
Clearly, people looking for convenience will acquire super sophisticated cell phones (or their descendants) capable of ultra reliable and private communications, possibly with Hypernet capabilities so they can download the entire Library of Congress in 10ms.
But some of these people, users of the hyperconvenient Hypernet will still look for a challenge, for a chance to learn and experiment by themselves about radio and electronics, and all the stuff that makes this hobby fun. In fact, amateur radio may have something of a "vintage" flavour--this in itself might attract newcomers, some of them tired of living in the hypertech world of the Hypernet.
So... there will be amateur radio. Will there be more, or less hams? I don't know... and frankly... we should not care. This is a hobby and a service, not a political party. We draw strength from quality, not quantity only. Quantity helps, for sure, but only if tied to high technical standards, motivation and a bit of good humour.
So amateur radio in 2050... it's back to the future... again.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NB3O on February 16, 2005
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"Japanese scientists have created a camera with such a fast shutter speed, they now can photograph a woman with her mouth shut. "
I'd do anything to live long enough to see this invention!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by RADIO123US on February 17, 2005
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In 2050, the ARRL proposes eliminating ALL testing for Amateur Radio licenses so that they can increase their membership.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NI0C on February 17, 2005
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K6BBC said something worth repeating: "The volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of propagation is what makes radio wonderful."
In one sentence you've captured the essence of the appeal of our hobby. If we want to attract new folks to our hobby we've got to emphasize that we can communicate around the world with no infrastructure in place to facilitate that communication. Look at the emphasis on QRP these days. The magic is still here, and I suspect will be into 2050 and beyond.
73 de Chuck NI0C
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W2DUG on February 17, 2005
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By 2050, the interest in this faintly embarassing hobby will have all but disappeared, and it will become a much more esoteric interest, like building ships in bottles or restoring revolutionary-era firearms.
The HF bands would remain mostly as they are now (possibly with more weight given to digital modes), but at least some of the VHF and UHF bands will shrink or disappear due to commercial demands. The SHF bands will be more commonly used as transceivers for those bands become more accessible.
Licensing will no longer be required, because there simply wouldn't be enough people doing it to cause a problem, and commercial communications technology will have progressed to the point that sloppy ham operations wouldn't interfere anyway.
The more hard-core hams will still use CW and phone because that will keep the hobby interesting in a kind of archaic way. The bulk of hobby radio, though, will be software-driven, and it will become the industry standard to fully integrate digital modes into the radios, analogous to the way that features like CTCSS are found in radios today. Perhaps home/portable computer-based radio plug-in hardware would become the standard platform for hobby radio. Satellite and high altitude repeaters and repeater networks will be commonplace for those who prefer not to use the (2050 equivalent of) the Internet for point-to-point communications.
And hams will still be geeky, socially inept, borderline mentally ill know-it-alls.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K3ESE on February 17, 2005
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ham radio will long have been forbidden by the minister of homeland security. distant memories of ham radio will commingle with distant memories of the two-party system, separation of church and state, and freedom of the press. people will be too busy, anyway, attending mandatory prayer/work sessions, and standing on line to receive their family's ration of breathable air canisters.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 17, 2005
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<people will be too busy, anyway, attending mandatory prayer/work sessions,>
Only if Al Qaida wins. The current trend HERE will eventually outlaw prayer anywhere except your bedroom (or maybe a specially set-aside room in your house, for which you will need a government permit). Even your own living room will be off-limits, because a neighbor might hear and be offended!!
And for hams, no religious-themed items will be allowed in the room in which you have a federally-licensed radio.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WA1RNE on February 17, 2005
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Ham Radio in the year 2055:
*A new mode with its own dedicated spectrum will be in use, known as BAMN or Broadband Amateur Microwave Networking;
*Manual CW as we know it will be mothballed - but replaced by iPOD-like devices to communicate using the all new digital mode: "Virtual CW". An optional digi-reader will convert Virtual CW to text on a holographic display. An optional digi-coder will translate voice to Virtual CW.
*SSB and AM phone will take advantage of new digital compression algorithms to conserve bandwidth while increasing audio fidelity;
*Nanotube technology will begin to take over where silicon based semiconductors fall short, allowing 500-fold increases in circuit efficiency and miniaturization;
*A new class of RF amplifiers will be introduced, essentially a D/R converter, or Digital to RF Converter;
*New alloys will be introduced allowing strong but lightweight construction of very large HF yagi and log periodic antennas;
*The fan dipole will finally be retired – after >100 years of over-use;
*All amateur bands will be opened for all mode use anywhere in the band. The decision will finally be made considering the technological advances in transmission methods and receiver technology - along with 50 years of exhaustive archiving of millions of terabytes of correspondence from the amateur community.
73, WA1RNE
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC9DTA on February 17, 2005
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remember you can take a rig manufactured in 1955 "50 yrs ago" and operate it
so maybe our present rigs will still be allowed to transmit in 2055??
question group ; do you think am broadcast band radio will still be operating in this country in 2055 or what about commercial am shortwave broadcasting??
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KD4AC on February 17, 2005
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"*New alloys will be introduced allowing strong but lightweight construction of very large HF yagi and log periodic antennas;"
With no place to put them, as more and more deed restricted neighborhoods sprout up across the U.S., amateur radio becomes a useless hobby since very few people will actually be able to put up an antenna and get on the air. The FCC, in its ignorance, will mistake the inactivity to a lack of interest and give the bands to other users in a continued effort to fill their greedy pockets.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VA7MGK on February 17, 2005
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Ham radio will be a thing of the past. Why, because it's become boring. We no longer need to build an amplifier, we can buy one. We no longer need to use "phone" for long distance communication, we can use the telephone or internet. The only things the vast majority of us use ham for these days is emmergency communication (waiting for the next disaster), "rag chewing" and signal reports. When I was out cruising on a sailboat for three years, ham radio had a purpose. It was a means of communication, email, finding out information and telephone patches. Now I'm land based. I turn the radio on each evening and tune up and down the bands searching for something interesting. Nothing!!! One can only build so many antennas before that becomes boring. In the past, ham radio was a tool. It has evolved into a hobby. The world is full of many interesting hobbies these days. We need to find something to make ham radio interesting again.....VE0MGK
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KE1MB on February 17, 2005
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I think about this. So now is the time to stock up on a 40 year supply of vacume tubes for my r390a and drake TR4. I also think that for most of us, that mobile work will be the only way to get away from noise generated by new devices. Unless of course you live out in the wild blue wonder.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 17, 2005
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Thanks for the comments Chuck.
The nature of radio is the appeal of the hobby. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is going to work as a selling point any longer. There is a sickness that has overcome much of the hobby. Exactly what that sickness is is open to speculation, however, the symptoms are obvious: rudeness, crankiness, ignorant manner of speech, racial bigotry, religious bigotry, obsessive concern with ones medical conditions, obsessive chatter about the weather, nonsensical talk about Japanese radios, inflated perception of ones self-worth, inflated perception of Amateur Radio’s importance, unhealthy weight gain, sedentary lifestyle, bad fashions choices, greasy hair and poor grooming, diet rich in fat, a belief a fine meal comes from The Cracker Barrel, etc. etc. etc.
K6BBC
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC0KBH on February 17, 2005
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I think there will be digital voice, and a lot of digital modes. I know I will have a heck of a computer- it could be like 100 GHz.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by G0GQK on February 17, 2005
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When I read Charles letter, I though, this could be quite interesting. But the responses so far have not been of much interest, hardly the kind of deep thought which produces graduates in electronics in universities
like Cambridge.
If one thinks back to what was happening in 1950, and compare it with what is happening today the great leap forward has been the computer. In 1950 amateurs were communicating using Morse code, they still do. They were talking to each other through microphones, radio transmitters, a radio receiver and a dipole. They still do.
In 50 years time radio hams will still operate as they do today, but there will be fewer of them. Why would people want to communicate the same way as they did in 1905 ? Only if they are radio enthrusiasts like the fellas who drive Bugatti's and wear leather helmets.
Using ancient Morse keys and listening to dits and dahs, drives most people nuts !
In the last 20 years the electronic advancement has been in miniaturisation of everything, notably telephones which we know as mobiles. Every day there are billions of contacts all over the world by people using a mobile phone. If you get stranded on a mountain in Europe you get help using a phone. If you're in a boat five miles from land and the engine wont start, you phone the coastguard. Stuck at the side of the road, use your mobile, ring the local garage.
We are now in the 21st century and radio hams will follow the trend set by international companies, the developments of the telephone and the computer.
Charles writes of bouncing modulated lightwaves from the sun, or earth vibration modulation technology, whatever that could be. Or using atoms to send packets on a narrow beam of light. Maybe, but it wont be your average gum chewin',bearded fella wearing a cap with his call sign on the front, tinkerin' in his shack at midnight. This science will be discovered by an advanced research unit at a university, and most probably in Japan. Why Japan ? Because they are light years ahead of everybody else, including the USA.
There are people in the hobby who say that hams invented this and that, and they did, but that is history. The ideas that will be developed in the future will be by the thinking of highly developed minds, people who graduated from the best universities in the world, who perhaps may have ham radio as a relaxing hobby.
In the years to come computers will be smaller, communication will be by satellite, all over the world.
The thinking will be, I want to talk, I want to speak to my friend in Australia now, not have to wait until 20 metres is open. It may be days. I'll get him on the phone or the digi system in seconds ,not days !
If you want to see him, there he is on the small screen.
Instead of a vertical antenna for 160- 2 metres on the back of the car, you may have a portable dish in the trunk of the car. Stop the car, unfold the dish made of a metalized plastic put it on a small mast, point it towards the "local" satellite 22,000 miles away and say G'day to ya mucker in Adelaide.
How about a bit of serious thought, it could get interesting.!
73, Mel
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W3DCG on February 17, 2005
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You could at present call Ham Radio o b s o l e t e .
Everyone knows, for example, that in daily practice, CW, is- well, obsolete (save for Wilderness type radio operation).
People do CW not because it's state-of-the-art, they do it, because THEY CAN. IT'S FUN.
Realistically- come on, before cell phones, and IRLP, VoIP, wireless LAN- 2 meter auto-patch was all the rage! Even now, IRLP pin-drop clarity HT to HT communication from here to Australia is pretty darn cool, you have to admit that.
As far as HF, do we really collect cards, do DX petitions, line up like rabid-animals on a frequency like Traders on Wall Street because we want to communicate most effectively? Of course not, if we did, we'd simply use our telephones.
Do hams really spend all that money on killer, super duper antenna farms, search out the most premium elevated places to live, because of cutting edge? I don't think so. It's a hobby.
The allure, of bouncing signals, off a meteor trail or temperature inversion/duct, or the Ionosphere will be as captivating to some 50 years from now, as it did 50 years ago. We do it because it's fun, as challenging as you wish, (QRP/QRPp unity gain antennas- VHF/UHF/Satellite/meteor burst/EME, etc), or DX pedition with generators, towers, beams, whole 9 yards, or piece of cake- legal limit some do more plus huge directional arrays.
Contesting strikes me as funny- I've worked in, around, with, and for a Call Center for many years, and it struck me that here we have all these people, wanting to essentially do "clerical" work- operating a station looking at stats- just like how we measure the performance of a Call Center Operator! But there's a big challenge in preparation, and training, making sure your data systems work seamlessly, maximizing efficiency and accuracy and record keeping. Technical challenges, putting it all together, developmental challenges in assembling a Contest Station. It is all about challenges.
Why do humans climb mountains, a helicopter works better!
We take helicopters to the top of mountains just so we can ski down them.
Why do we ride trains, how obsolete is that?
How completely cool is it though, to get there by train, to have the luxury of time to do so.
Well, I think Ham Radio will still be around. I think people will still be doing CW, 50 years from now, as even now, it is practiced not because of it's technological value. If anything, we may gravitate towards it precisely because of it's lack of technological value. We can do it and be freed from predisposed ideas regarding our sex. It's just a signal, male/female/black/white/purple/young/old, it simply does not matter. But it is still two or more minds coming together, brought together by the equipment they assembled, created, or maybe simply only acquired- often connected to nothing more than some wire hanging from somewhere.
The allure of ham radio is absolutely, much more- than simply using the most efficient and effective means of communicating across vast distances. "Vast distance" is a relative term, too.
As far as how I see the future of say, HF-
I see it as something along the lines of
SDR-1000, in concept.
The physics of RF won't be changing.
The implementation of it has been, and is still, changing.
My two sense.
73.
72.
Later.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WB4QNG on February 17, 2005
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Don't know about the year 2050. I do know about the year 3050. Someone will be expermenting in his bedroom and find out that a signal can be transmitted in air. CW will be the only way you can communicate until someone figures out AM. You see around the year 2050 the human race will enter another dark ages and everyone will have forgotten every thing they knew.
Terry
WB4QNG
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC8VWM on February 17, 2005
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Here are some additions to my article for consideration:
Recent Headline:
Breakthrough in modulating light with silicon could enable new teleproduction techniques -
Feb 13, 2004 12:00 PM
"Scientists from Intel reported in the Feb. 12 edition of the journal "Nature" about the development of a silicon manufacturing process to create a fast photonic modulator –a transistor-like device that can encode data onto a light beam."
http://broadcastengineering.com/news/broadcasting_breakthrough_modulating_light/
Ironically, it was Alexander Bell himself who invented one of the earliest light-wave communications devices in 1880. Bell's "photophone" used a flexible diaphragm to modulate a beam of sunlight and a selenium photodetector as a receiver. Current fluctuations generated in the photoconductive selenium by the modulated light beam were fed through a transducer to recreate the original sound.
Over the next 50 years scientists or perhaps radio amateurs like us will discover FAR better methods of communication that we cannot even imagine now. Such extremely advanced communication methods are thought by SETI to be currently is use by advanced life forms in the far reaches of the Universe. They would seem rather foolish indeed if they choose to use primitive methods of communication like ours.
We, on earth, only discovered the existence of radio waves about one hundred years ago. For all the thousands of years of previous human societies, we were completely ignorant of the existence of the many forms of electromagnetic radiation that always surround us.
Less than one hundred years ago, we discovered how to create radio waves and CW. Soon afterward, we discovered how to "modulate" those waves with lower frequency electrical signals that carried the information of sounds, and later pictures.
The infancy of our currentt radio communication technology we have today is validated in the fact that it only came into existence during the lives of some people who are still living today! In other words, our knowledge and experience in creating and detecting such waves are still extremely primitive!
Using modulated radio waves is a very crude method of transmitting information signals. For example, a modulated light signal can carry over ten billion times as much information as an FM radio signal, and our technology already has learned most of that technology, and only in our first hundred years of being capable of creating modulated signals.
I am going to predict that we will have long range light modulation communication devices or "light wave repeaters" of a sorts located on the moon in the near future. This will enable us to pass a great deal of communication data into the deep regions of space far beyond the eyes of even the most powerful optical telescopes in existance today.
Lastly, this new form of communication will of course occur at 186,282.4 miles per second.
This would make my high speed internet connection seem like a 300bps modem connection in comparison.
Amateur Radio isn't dead, we are only just getting started!
73
Charles - KC8VWM
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050--W3DCG
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by TG9AKH on February 17, 2005
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W3DCG--I fully agree with you. In fact, if I may push the "challenge" argument a little bit further, "challenges" are necessary because they often fill our lives with meaning. Without them, everything seems empty and pointless... in other words, the challenges that we discover through amateur radio can even keep us mentally healthy!
Meditation and plenty of relaxation techniques are still practised today by millions of people worldwide. There's plenty of advanced drugs out there (the legal type, of course...) that could provide users with "tranquility" or a better sense of self... yet many people prefer and use ancient techniques like meditation. If anything, these "ancient" techniques have become more popular over time!
In the barren hi-tech jungle cities of 2050 one will surely be able to find friendship and meaning in some HF band, however worthy of an archaeological find that HF band may be!
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W0PEA on February 17, 2005
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I wrote this article in 1997, and sent it to the ARRL.
They so much as laughed at me and told me that I was totally wrong. I will let you decide............
Don Thomas
WØPEA
W0PEA@cox.net
_____________________________________________________
“Ham Radio” Ends
April 1, 2017
One hundred years after its inception, amateur radio has come to an end. The hobby once considered by many to be on the cutting edge of technology began to deteriorate in the last decade of the century. Technology advances in computers, cellular telephone, wireless data communication and total global communication via satellite and spread spectrum technology overshadowed amateur radio technology.
United Global Technology LTD, successor to American Telephone and Telegraph, the successful bidder for global High Frequency spectrum, announced today that it will utilize hyper-compressed spread spectrum technology on the frequencies from 3 MHz to 30 MHz to provide data, voice, and video communication globally. The new technology will provide the capability of 100 million simultaneous data, voice and video communication channels on frequencies once used by only a handful of amateur radio operators.
The U.S. President and leaders of the world community met in Helsinki to sign and formalize the world agreement with United Global Technology.
Many believe that the amateurs resistance to change was a major factor in the Federal Communications Commission and similar organizations in other countries in the global community to decide that the frequencies once used by amateurs could be put to better use for the citizens of the world, not just a select few.
Amateurs originally used the Morse Code to communicate over the globe. The amateur radio operators kept pace with the new technologies as they emerged until late in the century, when the Internet first became popular. Morse Code use by the Military, Government and Maritime Services was discontinued during the last five years of the previous century. Internet technology quickly overshadowed amateur radio and the interest in becoming a “Ham” radio operator became passe. This was further amplified by complacency among the amateurs, and their resolve to cling tenaciously to the Morse Code as a requirement to obtain a license.
The American Radio Relay League, once the representative of the amateurs, did not recognize in the last decade of the century that the amateurs holding license privileges that required Morse Code were diminishing due to death and attrition at a rate faster than new licensees. As the turn of the century approached, the average age of the HF license holder exceeded 65 years of age. At the World Radio Conference in 1999, the ARRL staunchly voted to retain the Morse Code as a license requirement after polling the ARRL members that only represented a small minority of the licensed amateurs. When it was finally recognized that the hobby was literally dying of old age, it was too late to make any significant changes to prevent its unfortunate demise.
By the turn of the century the growth that the hobby enjoyed by the initiation of a No Code license was thwarted by competition from global satellite interests with their need for frequency spectrum. The reallocation and sale of frequency spectrum started during the administration of the late President Clinton quickly consumed the VHF, and UHF spectrum that the amateurs had used. The global HF spectrum has now been taken since the total number of amateurs no longer justifies their claim to the frequencies.
An era has come to an untimely end.
Don Thomas, once known as W0PEA, 73 to all and SK……………………….
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W5AU on February 18, 2005
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In 2050 we will have solved many mysteries. One of particular interest could be LDE (Long Delayed Echos).
Hams in 2050 could be using LDE to communicate with other Hams in the past or the future. Just think a bit about
the awards that could be created. The verification and record keeping could be a little involved!
Best 73,
Troy, W5AU
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N3HGB on February 18, 2005
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In 2050 ham radio will be a type of historical reenactment. I will be utterly amazed if universal worldwide handheld broadband devices haven't been relatively common for years at that point. Ham radio will be 95% AM and CW with vacuum tube rigs. Some hams may even blow their own glass for the tubes. I suspect that there will be no ham bands above 10 meters at that point and that the worldwide ham population will be down about 90% or more.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N3HGB on February 18, 2005
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"I still want a sub-space communicator. Think about it: instant real-time communications with anyone equally equipped anywhere within the galaxy! All we have to do to make the dream a reality is to find some way to re-write the laws of physics. "
I believe this is possible now.
http://www.primidi.com/2003/07/06.html
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by N3HGB on February 18, 2005
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"I still want a sub-space communicator. Think about it: instant real-time communications with anyone equally equipped anywhere within the galaxy! All we have to do to make the dream a reality is to find some way to re-write the laws of physics. "
I believe this is possible now.
http://www.primidi.com/2003/07/06.html
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W5ESE on February 18, 2005
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W3DCG hit the nail on the head.
Amateur Radio is somewhat akin to Amateur Astronomy.
The backyard astronomer has no chance of "competing"
against the large, university research operated
scopes on tall mountains, with multiple mirrors,
or the space-based scopes. At one time, Amateur
Astronomers (like William Herschel) were primary
drivers of Astronomical discovery, but now most
discoveries are made by the professionals.
It does frequently happen, though, that an Amateur
Astronomer will be the first to spot a new comet or
nova.
Curiously, like Amateur Radio, interest and
participation in Amateur Astronomy has waned
somewhat. Perhaps there's been a decline
generally in "participative" leisure pursuits;
driven by the huge number of cable channels
served up nightly by cable and satellite
television.
Like Amateur Astronomy, Radio Amateurs enjoy
experiencing the vagaries of HF/VHF/UHF propagation.
E-skip, F layer, tropo, meteor scatter; it's all
interesting and fun to experience, in much the
same way that it's fun to see a comet or planet
through your own telescope or binoculars. Even
when conditions are bad, even horrible, it's still
interesting. To experience a near-blackout caused
by CME's. When we receive new MF, LF, and VLF
allocations (as I predict we will), there will
be new things to experience all over again.
The fascination with this will not be obsolete 50
or more years from now.
73
Scott W5ESE
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W3DCG on February 18, 2005
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TG9AKH-
Yes, the Hi Tech Hi Touch Syndrome.
Someone wrote a book about that seems like in the 80s, think it was someone named Nesbitt, but I could be misremembering.
I've said it before also on similar topics-
There's something about catching a band opening, about two people being at two distant places at the same time, when- Mother Nature and the Universe are cooperating with those two people and their radios. For the duration of the QSO, Extraterrestrial and Terrestrial forces cooperated, and by the measured application of science, signals- and thoughts were exchanged. We're doing this here, but here it's simply well- too e a s y.
There is also something to be said about building wireless systems that are not dependent upon propagation. And cutting Mother Nature out of the deal, is always a great challenge. For me, as a hobby- I prefer to work with Her as much as possible. I might win several battles going against her, but in the end, She always wins.
73!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 18, 2005
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W0PEA, I agree with ARRL. Well, not totally wrong, but over 90%!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KJ7XJ on February 18, 2005
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I was waiting for K4KOE to add something to this roast...
Amen RadioBob!! Except I would go back further than Bush and say deregulation, Regan, etc....
Yeah I know...Another Liberal Democrat in the NW...what else is new...lol
Ill be pushing 90 in 50 years so if I can still talk, use a key,mic, or type Ill be happy!!
Eric
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WA1RNE on February 18, 2005
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K4JF.....and everyone else;
When it comes to the future of this hobby, I wouldn't necessarily confide in the ARRL as the all knowing body of "Infinite Wisdom".
I remain optimistic about Amateur Radio's future, but I will not become complacent. There is, in my opinion a real risk for losing amateur spectrum to other services.
W0PEA's letter should not be looked upon as just some sort of sour pessimism.
In previous posts, I have also expressed similar concerns about the risk of losing spectrum to commercial services.
It's already happened; You may recall the reductions we incurred at 220 Mhz?
There are genuine concerns about BPL. But there are other more immediate threats, like proposals to use RFID devices at 425 and 435 Mhz.
The point is, if usage doesn’t increase and/or we are unable to justify our use of certain spectrum allocations, we could lose them.
Cell phones and less reliance on amateurs for Public Service can cause some to question or "justify" our existence.
I’m not saying I have a solution, but I do question the importance of the certain ARRL initiatives in the large scheme of things and what they are doing to create interest among amateurs - as well as instilling real value to the public.
73, WA1RNE
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 18, 2005
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W0PEA – I’ve been screaming the same thing for years. For a hobby that professes a keen technical requirement, I’m surprised how many members of the fraternity cannot do simple math. Yes, Gracey, the ham population is old and getting older. I’m 48 and I rarely work anyone younger than myself. I was licensed at age 12 and at the time, there were lots of youngsters on the bands – LOTS OF THEM – especially after school hours. Today, they are all but gone. We need the youngsters back or this hobby will be dead before 2050. Frankly, I would advise all young hams to ignore and shun all the old geezers who want to keep the hobby the way it was. Their day has passed and they are irrelevant. The CW requirement must be dropped and a new hobby must b e formed – one that emphasizes what radio does that The Internet does not – point-to-point communication without servers and wires. CW is the past – forget it, it’s DEAD.
As the hobby is today, I could not in good conscious recommend this activity to my children – and I have four, ages 8-14 – prime ages for the hobby. Why would I want to expose my kids to a bunch of old men bickering and complaining about their medical problems let alone to the drunks that inhabit 75 meters at night. When I was licensed back in 68, hams spoke with intelligence, not like a bunch of back-woods crackers. Over the next 20 years, this crowd will thin out due to extinction. I is time to create the next generation of the hobby – a generation built from the fabric of the future, not the past.
K6BBC
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KA0SOG on February 18, 2005
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Well I'll probably be dead. My Grandson will be 51 years old going to hamfests telling them about when he was a kid he used to watch his grandad use morse code and a straight key. He will likely have my key in a glass case on display in his parlor. If he's really lucky my Grandson will still have my Grandad's 1926 Grebe Receiver and be telling people at the hamfest how one day I passed great great grandads radio down to him. Then he sadly enough will start complaining about the CCR's and his neighborhood association and not being able to erect a tower...just like grandad.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AA4PB on February 18, 2005
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Lastly, this new form of communication will of course occur at 186,282.4 miles per second.
This would make my high speed internet connection seem like a 300bps modem connection in comparison.
----------------------------------------------------
The speed of 5WPM CW via radio waves is also 186,000 miles per second. The speed at which you can transfer data is not directly related to the speed of the transmission medium.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KB3FHN on February 18, 2005
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2 meters and 440 are already D.O.A. !!
HF is not far behind as soon as BPL take's over
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 18, 2005
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<K4JF.....and everyone else;
When it comes to the future of this hobby, I wouldn't necessarily confide in the ARRL as the all knowing body of "Infinite Wisdom". >
Nor does anyone else. But since he was talking about "turn of the century" and that is 4 years, i month in the past, and very little of the prediction is true, then I think I'm safe to say that, in this instance, ARRL was right.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 18, 2005
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<KB3FHN 2 meters and 440 are already D.O.A. !!
HF is not far behind as soon as BPL take's over.>
You're speaking only of your own little corner. 2m and 440 are very active around here. Friendly folk (and no PL). It's fun to talk around the world on an HT.
IF (and that's a big if) BPL wins out, it will only be for a little while, as satellite broadband is up and running and far superior to BPL. I'll keep my HF gear, thanks, and if BPL comes here, I'll be sure to aim the beam and KW at the lines, just to hasten the inevitable.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 18, 2005
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<CW is the past – forget it, it’s DEAD.>
Obviously someone hasn't turned on an HF rig lately!!! :o) With the current low in the cycle, that's ALL you hear some days.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K6BBC on February 18, 2005
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In my little corner of the world (Los Angeles area) 2 meters and 440 are almost dead.
RE: CW - ask those folks on CW how old they are.
K6BBC
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W3DCG on February 18, 2005
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Thanks, Scott.
Indeed, Astronomy. It sure does relate.
Charles, instigator of this great spring-board to discussion- I know you're onto something with the
light-modulation thing.
Doppler shifts and all that likely can be filtered,
especially with computing power rising exponentially.
But then, actually- will the physics of light and it's nature be changing? I believe it could happen, might be best for say, hyper-space, inter-Galactic communication, but not really, as radio waves sort of go about the same speed.
From a practical standpoint, the beauty of radio is in the Ionosphere, because radio waves reflect and refract, we don't have to put up satellites to take advantage. Or mirrors, which might be obstructed.
Really simplistic my thinking here, I admit.
Presently, ancient 450 MHz 512 baud POCSAG beeper technology does a decent job penetrating even the buildings that are encased in metallic based, mirror-like window tinting. It goes through all manner of obstructions that stops all sorts of light, short of a super high-powered LASER. hi.
And let us not forget- hams routinely communicate without wires (not counting wire antennas!), thousands of miles, using a quarter the power it takes to power a typical "night-lite" to full luminosity.
Due to practicality, I don't see RF ever becoming obsolete, except by means of telepathy, hi hi.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K1CJS on February 18, 2005
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Washington, DC--April, 2055
In a move long expected but still hoped far in the future, the FCC today outlawed phone communications on any of the amateur bands. All communications will now be by means of digital signals only. The only exception to this will be the old mode of morse code signaling which, although testing for which has not been required for obtaining any ham license since the early part of this century, has seen a stunning resurgence in the past twenty years. Hams who preferred CW ever since before the testing requirement was dropped must now be laughing out loud at the outcome of the recent changes in the rules, and those who decried morse code as "old and outmoded" have been proven wrong once and for all.
The current president of the ARRL, Michael Powell III, has applauded the move as a step in the right direction and says he will now turn his attention to promotion of POML (Power over microwave link). "My grandfather endorsed BPL which was proven to be flawed technology, but I think this power transmission technology could well be the wave of the future--or should I say the microwave of the future!"
Some hams have commented that "Mr. Powell should volunteer for the first test of whether the POML transmissions will penetrate solid substances--such as his head!"
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 18, 2005
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<Washington, DC--April, 2055
In a move long expected but still hoped far in the future, the FCC today outlawed phone communications on any of the amateur bands. All communications will now be by means of digital signals only.>
Funny, but I doubt if that will ever happen. People will always want to speak and be heard.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WA1RNE on February 18, 2005
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Jim, how true. The article was written 3 whole years before the Millenium and 8 years ago, and guess what? Besides time flies, we're still dealing with the problem just like we were in 1997 and before that in 1987.
I see a trend here, don't you??
As I write, a bunch of banner ads are flashing away, trying to get my attention to buy the latest DSP rig with built in PSK and digital modes and automatic antenna tuners. (god forbid if I had to build my own tuner and adjust the freaking thing myself)
All courtesy of the Infinitely Wise at the ARRL, who while they chant the accolades of Digital modes and special bandplans to support this enabler of the new HF Internet, the spectrum we're suppose to use for direct radio communications may become the home for the new and improved Digital Shortwave Broadcast Band.
Before too long, we might not be able to justify being on 70cm either because the last BIG idea amateur radio had for this band was the repeater and a bunch of now defunct satellites. We have NO viable way to demonstrate that our continued oocupation of 70cm will have any measurable positive affect on public service.
....it might take just 8 more years, or maybe 12, but what the heck, who's counting??
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC8VWM on February 18, 2005
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"radio waves sort of go about the same speed. "
"The speed of 5WPM CW via radio waves is also 186,000 miles per second. The speed at which you can transfer data is not directly related to the speed of the transmission medium."
The point is not the speed.
It is in the amount of data that is carried by the signal. Light wave communication signals can carry more data than any wave travelling and transmitting a 5 wpm CW signal. Fibre optics vs. stranded wire would be another example of this.
Being successful at catching fish in a stream isn't always determined by how thin and fast the stream is travelling, it is rather determined by how wide and deep the water is.
73
Charles - KC8VWM
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NE0P on February 19, 2005
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N3JBH wrote "I find it to be interesting the person with a PhD in engineering can’t have a radio license because he wont or can’t learn Morse code."
Sure he can. It is called a Technician class license. That is the one error is most of the no-code arguments. The code requirement isn't keeping anyone out of ham radio, because the technician class license hasn't required a code test for almost 14 years now.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NE0P on February 19, 2005
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We'll finally get permission to operate from KP1/KP5, and the DXpedition team will be taking along several Icom 756PROXXXIIV transceivers.
And we will still be arguing in product reviews whether the A-99 is a good 10 meter vertical or not for the price.
And I will have the last surviving Icom 756 without blue lines in the display. And maybe I will finally work RI on 6 meters to complete my WAS on that band (already have 49 confirmed).
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by ARRLBOOSTER on February 19, 2005
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I think the Dept. Of Homeland Security will have, long before, outlawed the use of ham radio, due to National Security concerns. Neighborhood "radio watchdogs" report to the local security office, and warrantless searches and seizures are implemented, to remove, the HF, VHF, UHF, and other rigs from the house or car.
The FCC, finally expanding it's powers to include the use of the voice, would enact a fine on the ham, even if he was just uttering a cuss word, about the removal.
All healthy offenders would be immediately drafted into the on-going, but "still winnable" war against a "few thugs" in Iraq.
Other than that, Ham radio is doin' pretty well.
Orwell Ashcroft
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC0LTV on February 19, 2005
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We will still have dominion over a good part of our current spectrum. New, ultra-spectrum efficient technologies will have obsoleted much of the worries over "spectrum shortage" present today.
Software-defined like nothing we have seen yet will dominate the airwaves, but old rigs, including some from today and as early as the 1930's will share the air. The SDR radios will generate a mind-numbing variety of modulation formats, digital, analog, and perhaps even something digital, if that is possible. CW will still exist and enjoy a good amount of popularity within a certain niche of radio, that will include a number of younger people as well. A combination of extremely sensitive receivers, low-noise, 99.9% efficient antennas, and new modulation formats will facilitate sending otherwise high-bandwidth information in small spaces...imagine a digital video stream in 5 kHz of space on HF. Beyond-imagination DSP recovery and propagation-predictive auto-adjustment will allow for such, even when conditions are awful. Hams will discover new methods in the millimeter, micrometer, and nanometer regions of the EM spectrum. Small satellites may become cheaper and permit a worldwide AMSAT network. Etc., etc., etc.
The total ham population in the United States will lie somewhere in the range from 300,000 to 500,000. The world ham population will be somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 19, 2005
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I will make one real prediction. If the pattern of the last 50 years is any clue, we will absolutely not be able to imagine the changes of the next 50 years. But human nature will still be the same.
In 1955, no one could have imagined DSP, internet linked repeaters (heck, even the repeaters of the last couple of decades), home computers, software defined radios, the sophisticated handhelds of today, radios and computers communicating with each other in the shack. We really don't have a clue, but I do predict it will be a fun ride!!
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K1CJS on February 19, 2005
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K4JF--Hey Jim, doncha recognize satire? Besides, voice converted to digital is still digital, isn't it?
Anyway, with the April deadline, I didn't think anyone would take this too seriously!! 73!
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC0QEV on February 19, 2005
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Right now I am 18, and loving ham radio, it is 0500z feb 19 2005, i see myself at this same moment in 2055 doing just about the same thing except i hope to have a grandson sitting on my knee wanting to say hi to the astronauts bouncing away on mars. I see our knowledge about propagation on all bands from 1 khz to 10,000 ghz increase, repeaters linked by laser and microwave. a true 160m-70cm mobile antenna. we will still use all the current modes plus more digital modes. 5khz deviation on FM will be outlawed i am sure as we all move to narrow band 1khz deviation fm radios, digital voice on hf using only 1khz of spectrum, insted of homebrewing on the hardware side i see more work on software and the controllers of modern transcievers. working hams on other planets. astroid bounce. who knows for sure but if i am the last ham then i won't stop haming without a fight.
73. Matthew A. Chambers kcØqev
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KP4TR on February 19, 2005
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In 2050 the Chinese will be the dominant force in ham radio, followed by most of what are currently 3rd world countries today. Transceivers will also be designed and manufactured by Chinese companies and not allowed to be sold in the U.S. (by the Chinese). The japanese dominance of transceivers will fall to China.
The U.S will mostly have forgotten what amateur radio is because of a polluted radio spectrum and unfriendly FCC rules and home associations.
Most personal communications will be in the form of a paid commercial service provided over many mediums, primarily over power lines or satellite. The devices consumers will use will be built by the Chinese, and so will the satellites used to carry these services.
Americans who would like to experiment with radio waves will not be able to do so. BPL will pollute the HF spectrum. They will not be allowed to install antennas at home by their home associations and county or city commissioners. Use of radios in cars will be prohibited due to lawyers bringing on class action lawsuits brought on by use of cell phones in cars.
And last, the FCC will declare BPL a "national resource" that needs to be protected from interference from "ordinary" citizens.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by DW1SCO on February 20, 2005
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Air pollution in 2050 will have a significant effect in the propagation of HF bands. maybe there will be another layer in the atmosphere that will DX the 2m FM. hihi. I hope this will not happen.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by RADIO123US on February 20, 2005
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KP4TR said "And last, the FCC will declare BPL a "national resource" that needs to be protected from interference from "ordinary" citizens. "
BPL will be DEAD in just a few years. It is NOT a commercially viable medium to transmit data...Cable, Satellite, and DSL are MUCH more cost effective, and are not as susceptible to interference from outside sources.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 20, 2005
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<K4JF--Hey Jim, doncha recognize satire? Besides, voice converted to digital is still digital, isn't it?>
Of course.... but "fone" covers all voice modes: FM, AM, SSB, DSB, and would certainly include digital. (Actually, isn't most digital FM?) Voice converted to digital is still voice, or "fone" and you said it was outlawed!!! ;o)
So if "phone" or "fone" (both valid spellings in hamdom) is outlawed, then the only digital would be onscreen or something of the sort.
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by K4JF on February 20, 2005
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<I think the Dept. Of Homeland Security will have, long before, outlawed the use of ham radio, due to National Security concerns.>
I'm guessing that by that time, we will have elected some conservatives and gotten RID of the "Patriot Act" and the DHS.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by OBSERVER on February 20, 2005
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What I think will transpire over the next 50 years.
1) Used Icom IC-7800PRO-VI's sold on QTH.com for about $500.00.
2) Yeasu, Kenwood and Icom form joint venture to support the Amateur market. New Company is called Yeakencom.
3) Yeakencom releases the TS-756PRO-XXI-MkVIII-Field-Z. Ham radio operator's around the world are shocked at the $50K list price for the new radio. Yeakencom indicates that all of the first five production runs are already sold out.
4) Ten-Tec continues to battle patent infringements involving its Orion-VIII radio technology. Ten-Tek's Orien, and Tin-Tec's Orian continue to place pressure on Ten-Tec's Orion-VIII dominant position in the Amateur Market.
5) "Fan" Dipole enters Smithsonian as the most used and misunderstood antenna design in Amateur radio history.
6) FCC no longer requires an examination to acquire an Amateur Radio license. Simply fill out a form and send in your check for $5.00.
7) Amateurs lose HF spectrum after FCC auctions off exclusive use of spectrum to BPL interests.
8) eHam becomes eBPL.
9) Ham Free-Banders create problems for BPL, FCC issues major fines to violators.
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by KC8VWM on February 20, 2005
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"6) FCC no longer requires an examination to acquire an Amateur Radio license. Simply fill out a form and send in your check for $5.00."
Shouldn't that be:
6) The Federal Ministry of Communications (FMC) no longer requires an examination to acquire an Experimental Communications license. Simply send in a copy of your digital identity encyption chip and 10,000 quatlooms.
:)
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by WD9EZK on February 20, 2005
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I would have to agree with KU4UV, amateur radio as we know it will be history. As for getting younger kids interested, I have a 10 year old with a general class license (got his technician when he was 7) who can't find many people to talk with on his level. He is not talking about radios all the time like most hams so he has little interest after all the hard work to get a license.
WD9EZK - John
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AE6IP on February 20, 2005
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> Being successful at catching fish in a stream isn't
> always determined by how thin and fast the stream is
> travelling, it is rather determined by how wide and
> deep the water is.
And here me (slow deep) and the bears (fast thin) thought it was whether or not there were fish where you were fishin.
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by AE6IP on February 20, 2005
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> In 1955, no one could have imagined DSP, internet
> linked repeaters (heck, even the repeaters of the
> last couple of decades), home computers, software
> defined radios, the sophisticated handhelds of
> today, radios and computers communicating with each
> other in the shack. We really don't have a clue, but
> I do predict it will be a fun ride!!
and yet, vannavar bush wrote a paper describing many of those things before 1955.
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by AE6IP on February 20, 2005
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> In 1955, no one could have imagined DSP, internet
> linked repeaters (heck, even the repeaters of the
> last couple of decades), home computers, software
> defined radios, the sophisticated handhelds of
> today, radios and computers communicating with each
> other in the shack. We really don't have a clue, but
> I do predict it will be a fun ride!!
and yet, vannavar bush wrote a paper describing many of those things before 1955.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by W8EZE on February 21, 2005
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due to the current political world climate,ham radio as we know it will be clandistine, and the only communication of FREE MEN world wide...
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC0TJW on February 21, 2005
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Hopefully we'll be over the code debate and wondering why it was ever the holy grail of ham radio. I suppose tho we'll still have the "If it was good enough for me, it's good enough for you" debate on something else. Which is really a "I'm more of a ham then you".
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 21, 2005
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<vannavar bush wrote a paper describing many of those things before 1955>
Really? Where can I read it?
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by W1PMC on February 21, 2005
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What amateur radio is like in 2050 will depend on what the world situation is between now and then. If things spiral downward because of wars, depressions, etc, then amateur radio could be alive and well in 2050 because it would be a fairly reliable means of communication in an uncertain world. On the even darker side, maybe nobody will be on the ham bands because we'll have become extinct.
On a slightly more positive note, if things remain relatively peaceful and stable in the world, then I think the number of hams will slowly decline until there is a small but stable number of people who operate. As some have already posted, it will be more of an historic thing. All of today's problems and debates within the ham world will be irrelevant in 2050.Possibly there will be rises in interest in the hobby as people's nostagia waxes and wanes. Also, by 2050, as technology plays a bigger and bigger role in our lives, there may be a certain segment of society that shuns technology and embraces things like amateur radio.
In the cosmic scheme of things, 50 years is nothing, but to us humans 50 years is a long time. Think of the changes that took place between 1905 and 1950. What will happen between now and 2050?
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by NN6EE on February 21, 2005
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I'm SUPRISED that a FEW out here have MISSED the entire point for what actually separates US from CBers/Free-Banders!!!
The "Morse-code" requirement is the only separator, plain and simple!!! Anybody can spend a bit of their VALUABLE time to "MEMORIZE" the Qs & As, but only a few seem to want to get into the WHOLE experience of Amateur Radio which entails learning Intl. Morse!!!
In today's world of deregulation ALOT of people like to make up EXCUSES for NOT learning it at all!!!
OH WELL!!!
Jim/ee
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by NF6V on February 21, 2005
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After World War IV most technology manufacturing is destroyed and the remaining survivors will be back to communicating with smoke signals and CW radio with the simplest on/off transmitter rigs. Those of us hams still around that remember CW will be celebrities!
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by K6LO on February 21, 2005
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This is a thought provoking thread. I've been doing some calculations, reviewing averages, and have come to a comforting conclusion. By 2050 I will only be 86 years old and still lively enough to spend my free time chasing and conquering wild women, rather than wasting time on ham radio. Given the exponential growth of technology, it is likely to be the only fun thing left to do that won't require a computer.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AE6IP on February 21, 2005
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>> vannavar bush wrote a paper describing many of
>> those things before 1955
> Really? Where can I read it?
The Atlantic Monthly Magazine, July 1945, "As We May Think", Vannevar Bush
If you're a subscriber, Atlantic has the article on line.
http://www.csi.uottawa.ca/~dduchier/misc/vbush/awmt.html
has a copy reproduced with permission of the Atlantic
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 21, 2005
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Interesting article - but none of the specific items I mentioned were covered, he seems to have completely ignored radio, and did not forsee magnetic imaging or digital cameras. And of course, the idea of home computers wasn't even in science fiction at the time.
As visionary as he was, he missed some, and we will have a hard time imagining the technology of 50 years from now.
From the above, it seems some of us have a robust imagination about the political future of 50 years from now.
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by AE6IP on February 21, 2005
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Well, I said he forsaw many, not all. Others from the period who made fascinating predictions include Norbert Weiner and John Von Neumann. A fascinating sci-fi look at the future, written not in 45 but in 65 is John Brunner's "Stand on Zanzibar". Also amusing was GM's various 'World of Tomorrow' attempts over the years.
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by K4JF on February 22, 2005
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<A fascinating sci-fi look at the future, written not in 45 but in 65 is John Brunner's "Stand on Zanzibar". Also amusing was GM's various 'World of Tomorrow' attempts over the years. >
Yes, those were remarkable. And, as a SciFi fan of many years standing, I have had fun watching some things come true - and finding others missing the mark!! A favorite is an oft-repeated remark of my mother when she thought something was impossible: "They can no more do that than send a man to the moon!!!" :o)
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC8VWM on February 22, 2005
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Jim, that kinda reminds of how they now have cellphones developed from the conceptual Star Trek communicators, and PDA's developed from those Electronic Computer Pads they used to carry around on the early episodes.
Did you know that modern day car seats were developed by car manufacturers based on the capatin's chair of the earlier Star Trek series? These early designs included almost identical electonic "pushbutton consoles" on the armrest and extendible headrests.
I think sliding doors with sensors at supermarkets were also conceptualized from the early Star Trek series.
Seems as though if we conceptualize it, then it eventually becomes a reality.
73
Charles - KC8VWM
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by K4JF on February 23, 2005
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<I think sliding doors with sensors at supermarkets were also conceptualized from the early Star Trek series.>
Yep, and the interesting thing is that the doors on the Star Trek set were all pulled open by a person behind the wall - manually. That "sneark" was strictly a sound effect!
Fiction does sometime predict reality - I'm still waiting for the transporters!! :o)
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by WA2DYA on February 23, 2005
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The post about rigs coming from China is probably not the way it's going to be because World War IV will be a nuclear one with China.
--- CHAS
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by K4JF on February 23, 2005
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<The post about rigs coming from China is probably not the way it's going to be because World War IV will be a nuclear one with China.>
Uh, what about III?? IF we have a III, it will probably be with China and there may not be enough left to make a IV. IMHO.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AE6IP on February 23, 2005
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> Uh, what about III?? IF we have a III, it will
> probably be with China and there may not be enough
> left to make a IV. IMHO.
As far as I can tell, WW-III started a few months after WW-II ended, and has been ongoing ever since.
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by K4JF on February 23, 2005
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<As far as I can tell, WW-III started a few months after WW-II ended, and has been ongoing ever since.>
Ridiculous!!! Our parents, and their siblings, would be outraged at such a statement. We haven't seen anything since 1946 that was even a tiny fraction of the level of horror and sacrifice by the people as seen during WW II. And remember, it took nuclear power to end it.
I wonder if the American people of this era would stand up to the tyrants like they did. I have my doubts.....
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by KT4XF on February 23, 2005
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In 2050 I'll be 95yrs old, like W4AUP & W4BFI today!
I'll be collecting my 80yr certificate from the QCWA.
The aluminum Spartan trailercoach Ham shack I live in non CC&R territory will be 94yrs old. I will still drive hopped-up, stripped down air-cooled VW beetle engines in homebrewed vehicles. Overweight & smoking Hams in the US & EU will all be dead from prescription Drugs; their sedan utility vehicles all upside down! Their decline will correspond to a rise in operators from the developing universe creating unprecedented proportions of DX! The Republocratic single party dominance of 125yrs will continue; along with their short-hair-parted-to-one-side; suit,wide/narrow tie; no facial fur personna. The meek shall inherit the earth...but for now it"s OURS.
Ultimatly, the meek are here, they ain"t goin nowhere, they're moving right next door to you; there goes the neighborhood.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 24, 2005
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<Amateur radio expired 20 years ago.>
Don't think so. I had some nice, friendly QSOs on 15m today: Africa and Europe. And I likely won't be around in another 45 years, but if I am, I'll be on the air. Give me a call. (And if I'm not around, give me a call anyway - who knows? we may have found a way to break THAT barrier by then.......)
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC5CQD on February 24, 2005
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****<Amateur radio expired 20 years ago.>
Don't think so. I had some nice, friendly QSOs on 15m today: Africa and Europe. And I likely won't be around in another 45 years, but if I am, I'll be on the air. Give me a call. (And if I'm not around, give me a call anyway - who knows? we may have found a way to break THAT barrier by then.......)*****
I have to agree with K4JF on this one.
Amateur Radio is COOL!! Anyone that chooses to knock what we boys do is more than welcome to come and pay ole KC5CQD a visit and I'm more than sure you'll walk away with a different attitude.
KC5CQD
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KI4IHX on February 25, 2005
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>>By 2050 we HAMS will have went from the
>>1900 100% wireless
>>2000 50% Wireless 50% Wireline
>>2050 100% Wireline
sure doesn't look like it.. I see at best 10% Wireline and 90% broadband wireless...
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by S5M on February 26, 2005
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Ionosphere would still envelope our Mother Earth and some curious people would enjoy testing it between 6 - 160 m wavelengths. Ofcourse using PC :-)
73 de Mario, S56A, N1YU
P.S. Fall of Berlin Wall was spoiled with the fall of Twin Towers. It might have been a better world.
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by N9LYA on February 26, 2005
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Ok I should have said 100% telephone (Wireline or WIRELESS) but notRF..
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by N9LYA on February 26, 2005
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>>By 2050 we HAMS will have went from the
>>1900 100% wireless
>>2000 50% Wireless 50% Wireline
>>2050 100% Wireline
>>sure doesn't look like it.. I see at best 10% >>Wireline and 90% broadband wireless...
OK I should have said 100% telephone (WIRELINE OR WIRELESS)(MA-BELL)
With 0% RF. (WIRELESS VIA the AIR WAVES)
My mistake for not clearifying...
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by K4JF on February 26, 2005
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<Ok I should have said 100% telephone (Wireline or WIRELESS) but notRF.. >
Wireless IS RF.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on February 26, 2005
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Telephone has been around longer than ham radio. Hasn't affected it yet. I don't see why it would in the future. Phones are utilities - ham radio is not.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC5CQD on February 26, 2005
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*****C-Q-D ... I like that call.. *****
Yep.....calling with distress.....that's me!!
Although I'm an easy going guy, I know I can be one irritating motherf&@%er in forums where we're SUPPOSED to be able to speak our minds. So far, Eham has been "the sh!t". Gotta respect them for that.
KC5CQD
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by LA6DP on February 26, 2005
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We buy our amateur radio permissions for $2000 (2050).
We use extreme low power equipment and almost no antenna.
We will pay $100 for a 1n4148 (bargain) on a ha ham-fest.
Some hams and groups have their own satellites and deliver us nice fotos from above.
Internet (as we know it)is dead..... what did we use it for anyway.
My grandson like to start up an 100GHz PC from 2010 , but I still cant remember the password.(I have some logs on it still, but on an ancient data format)
I own a soldering iron but all my beautiful components has been taken away because I did not store them properly and had no certifification of origin and content of rare metals as to an 2030 Pollution Act.
I watch Amateur Radio Channel on my IPTV every day and have great fun from stories from the year 2005 when radio amateurs used big!! equipment . I still remember my big ICQ-7.......
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC0RCQ on February 28, 2005
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There may some new modes and some minor changes in band allocation, but otherwise not much will change. According to some of the doomsday predictions I have read here, it sounds like the US will be a rare country in a few years.
I am okay with that idea...
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by N6FB on March 1, 2005
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I am very much afraid it will be gone completely. The next 50 years are going to bring so many advances in communication techniques, that all aspects of ham radio---rag chewing, dx'ing, etc will be more than adequately handled by technologies we can not envision today.
You notice I left "experimentation" out of the list of today's ham activities, because we buried that aspect of the hobby 20 years ago!!
Besides, every youngster will have to take so many diversity and political correctnesses classes, he/she will have no time to take even a simplified ham exam.
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by N6FB on March 1, 2005
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There is no such thing as "cold Fission", Do you mean "cold fusion"???
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by K4JF on March 1, 2005
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<You notice I left "experimentation" out of the list of today's ham activities, because we buried that aspect of the hobby 20 years ago!! >
Maybe YOU buried that aspect, but there is a heckuvva lot going on in other places. So don't use "we". PSK31 is much newer than that, for example. Software defined radios were also unheard of 20 years ago. The list can go on and on and on and on and......
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by K4JF on March 1, 2005
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<Besides, every youngster will have to take so many diversity and political correctnesses classes, he/she will have no time to take even a simplified ham exam. >
Nah, that idiocy will fizzle out in a few years.....
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by VK3HAG on March 1, 2005
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Hopefully it will still be around..I'll be doing my best to get new hams on the air....(I'm 26 now so I should be an old timer, not sk, by 2050)
Correct about the SWL dying. In our local paper last week, someone got a whole page devoted to this "new invention" to let them hear local radio whilst overseas!
One made Collingwood (an Australian Rules team) fan's desperate desire to keep up with his team while he was overseas led to an award-winning invention.
George Parthimos came up with the concept for a portable wireless internet radio in 1999 while in Europe. (Our SW b'caster, Radio Australia broadcast Aussie Rules around the world every Saturday on Grandstand, so who really needs another expensive invention..what about DAB?)
The device lets people listen to radio stations from all over the world without the aid of a computer.
"I was overseas and wanted to keep up with what was happening back home-I wanted to know the footy scores"
This is not just about sport, it will allow people to tune in to ceremonies, news etc.
The device, which Mr Parthimos calls the Infusion, was a finalist in the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show on January 7th, 2005.
He hopes to have his invention on the market by September.
(Diamond Valley News, February 23, 2005, Melbourne, Australia)
Ahh!! Hello, just take your shortwave and tune to Radio Australia, or don't they and these companies about to invest in it know what Shortwave is!!
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by AC3P on March 2, 2005
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If it hasn't already faded away with the buggy whip and the model T, I am sure I will get one of those friendly reminder NTS messages to renew my licence even though my QTH will have been subterranean for quite a few years.
Seeing the current trends I don't hold much hope for amateur radio to be around in 2050.
If I'm wrong, just attach that renewal reminder message to the marker at my QTH and I will get to it as soon as I can.
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by K6BBC on March 2, 2005
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The NTS is the dumbest thing going in Ham Radio today. Good point AC3P.
K6BBC
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AE6IP on March 2, 2005
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> Software defined radios were also unheard of 20
> years ago.
The phrase "software defined radio" is fairly recent.
The conceptual work of using a computer to decode the signal being received via a wideband RF detector dates back at least to the early 1970s, when I first investigated the field. It is probable that parts of the US government were working on such systems as early as the 1950s, but I am unaware of any references in the declassified literature, so I can only speculate.
Actual commercial devices that would be recognized as an SDR date back at least to the mid 80s, although only the vendors had access to the microcode.
My favorite "SDR" consisted of a VAX 11/782 coupled with some fairly esoteric dsp hardware that processed the output of a 10mhz wide RF detector to determine the presence and nature of any signals in that band.
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RE: Amateur Radio In 2050
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by AE6IP on March 2, 2005
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> Ridiculous!!! Our parents, and their siblings, would
> be outraged at such a statement. We haven't seen
> anything since 1946 that was even a tiny fraction of
> the level of horror and sacrifice by the people as
> seen during WW II. And remember, it took nuclear
> power to end it.
"We" may not have seen it, but that doesn't mean it isn't ongoing. Africa, the middle east, the far east, and often, South America, have been continuous homes to significant warfare, up to, and including, genocide during that entire period. The only thing that makes the period seem like it's not a "world war" is that it involves the two thirds of the planet that weren't, in the main, involved in the mostly first-world "world war II".
But even that changed, when the terrorists started figuring out how to bring the war to the first world, back in the 70s.
Are first worlder's sacrificing on a par with those who were involved in ww-ii? No, of course not. We took our wars to the third world with all the proxy wars of the cold war. Funny thing, though, the 'cold war' ended, but the proxy wars won't go away.
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Amateur Radio In 2050
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by KC6MYO on October 17, 2005
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2050: 99% of the US population is urban. Served by terabit fiber-to-the-home and CellSat. CellSat uses the SHF band 3-10 GHz, and as it is UltraWideBand DigitalSpreadSpectrum, it co-exists with terrestrial and satellite frequency-centered communications. CellSat devices are free with a one-year contract (voice, worldwide long distance & gigabit broadband, all unlimited, for $50/mo inflation adjusted, $10/mo for addition CellSats on a family plan). (Additionally, some cities have established a free broadband cellular/WiMax system at taxpayer expense.) CellSats are powered by ElectroMagnetic induction, kind of like RFID, and back up power is a 30 day fuel cell.
Small cell repeaters are all over the place in the cities, while outside the cities, and in disasters when the cell repeaters are unavailable, a cluster of LowEarthOrbiting satellites take over seemlessly, and without "roaming" fees. To ease congestion on the satellites, COWs (CellularOnWings), unmanned solar powered aircraft carrying CellSat and public service digitally trunked repeaters, are dispatched to the afflicted area, flying at 60-100,000 feet. (20-30 Km), they are far above any hurricane or earthly damage.
Amatuer radio's emergency communication service is history.
As most every school-aged kid has a CellSat, capable of communicating with anyone else world-wide, very few people are interested in propigation, antennas, CW or kilobit speed packet. Ham radio has become nearly useless, by comparison. Most hams still listed in the FCC lifetime license database, have no radios, haven't touched their radios in over a year or are SilentKey.
Most of the largely unused amateur bands have been taken away under a "homeland security" claim. But unneeded, the frequencies have been quickly auctioned to telecom companies.
Amateur radio is nearly gone, only retro types and history buffs are interested in it.
Robust and redundant cellular, satellite and internet based communications have eaten amateur radio's lunch.
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