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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
from
KF4HR
on
February 24, 2007
View comments about this article!
As technology continues to improve, and with an amateur license becoming easier and easier to obtain - what do you think the future holds for our hobby in the next 50 years? Some claim amateur radio will eventually disappear. I disagree. Below are a few of my predictions.
With the onset of no-code licensing in the US, the amateur population will increase at a rate never seen in the history of the hobby. It will be more commonplace for an entire family to become licensed, and future FCC testing questions will be more geared toward actual communication operation, with less importance put on electronic theory.
CW, although no longer a requirement for licensing, will continue to be learned and used by approximately 30% of the amateur population. And for those that master the mode, those individuals will be considered (by some) to be the “elite” or even, “real” amateurs. Another 10% of the amateur population will claim they will “someday learn the code,” but will never get around to it. And the last 60% of the amateur population won't care a thing about CW. Eventually the newest of the amateur population won't even know what CW means, as the mode will begin to eventually disappear off the mode switches of some modern equipment.
As our numbers increase, manufactures will see the potential for larger sales, which will in turn generate new and improved radio equipment at a fast rate than currently seen. New radio equipment will have the ability to download “updates” to the firmware via the internet. Kenwood and ICOM will merge to create one amateur equipment manufacturer to compete for sales against Yaesu.
The internet will become more and more interlinked to amateur communications. VHF/UHF cross-country linked communications will become as commonplace as cell phone communications. HF band conditions will be better monitored via DX spotting and beacons, which will provide near real-time band conditions.
Digital communications will evolve from current formats such as D-Star, to better sounding compression algorithms, and after-market software companies will take full advantage of what the digital mode(s) can offer. Digital Voice “store and forward” will help provide linking between digital repeaters as well as have the ability to carry on multiple digital qso's on the same frequency with the repeaters controlling the digital voice traffic flow. Also digital voice mailboxes on repeaters will become common.
Radio gear will continue to evolve to provide more options, although multi-kilobuck radio's in the $7K to $20K range will become common. Beginner radios (under $1,000) will be considered a rare find, and used amateur gear will enjoy a great market share.
Older tube style communications equipment (Harvey-Wells, Drake, Collins, Hallicrafters, etc) will become much more sought-after items by collectors. And as more and more hams pore into the hobby and the collector craze increases, so will the prices for this older equipment. As more and more digital gear comes onto the market, owning tube equipment will become “cool.”
After-market companies will eventually begin selling “re-makes” of the more older popular amateur equipment. Of course at modern day prices!
That Amateur Satellite groups around the world (AMSAT, etc) will eventually have three long range satellites in orbit so that amateurs will have the ability to work though one of the long range birds anytime of the day or night. Satellite communications will become commonplace and new satellite transceivers will have Doppler correction and satellite tracking software built in; even mobile units. Eventually low-profile “phased-array” dishes will be available for mobile amateur satellite use, with auto-tracking mobile capability.
As the amateur population continues to increase, the ARRL will have a stronger and stronger voice on Capital Hill which will eventually allow the ARRL to provide better support for the hobby.
That's my predictions. What's yours?
This article has expired. No more comments may be added.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by ONAIR on February 24, 2007
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Reflectors and repeaters will be set up on the moon, and it will become a favorite for DX on many frequencies. Miniaturization will produce all band, all mode HTs the size of a wrist watch, that can also transmit and receive HAM video. Synchronos satellites that remain fixed in position in the sky will also carry HAM repeaters and reflectors.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KG4RUL on February 24, 2007
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I know! Let's blame it all on Global Warming!
Dennis KG4RUL
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AC9TS on February 24, 2007
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I'd like to but I can't get to Gore's meeting........too much snow!
Tom - AC9TS
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by SSB on February 24, 2007
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There will be no ham radio in 30 years.
1. People keep getting more nasty to each other as time goes on. This site is proof of that. Who will want to talk to eachother.
2. As more electronics illiterate people get licenses, more will get electrocuted in their power supplies and amplifiers.
3. The government will sell off spectrum to pay for the national debt which will be in the million trillion range.
4. Data networks carrying voice or anything else will become even more prevelent.
5. Other technologies yet to be invented will capture minds of young people. Radio will become as interesting as an abacus is to a computer scientist.
Alex.....
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KD4AC on February 24, 2007
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"With the onset of no-code licensing in the US, the amateur population will increase at a rate never seen in the history of the hobby. It will be more commonplace for an entire family to become licensed, and future FCC testing questions will be more geared toward actual communication operation, with less importance put on electronic theory."
Actually, I disagree. I think there will be an initial large influx of new licenses and then it will drop back down. It's happened every time the rules were changed in an effort to attract people to the hobby. And, while you're probably right about the test questions, it's something I would not like to see happen. While I'm not against the elimination of CW, I feel that with as easy as it is to get a license now by just taking a multiple choice test, the tests should remain technical and the answers should NOT be available. I think some actual reading and studying should be required.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN4RH on February 24, 2007
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>>> "With the onset of no-code licensing in the US, the amateur population will increase at a rate never seen in the history of the hobby. It will be more commonplace for an entire family to become licensed, and future FCC testing questions will be more geared toward actual communication operation, with less importance put on electronic theory."
>> Actually, I disagree. I think there will be an initial large influx of new licenses and then it will drop back down
I disagree even more that. I think that no-code licensing will merely result in a shift in the relative proportion of Technicians to Generals, ie that there will be an initial "surge" in the number of upgrades within existing licensed ranks. BUT will NOT result in significant increase in the rates of NEW hams being licensed.
The whole premise of the article that amateur population is destined to dramatically increase is an unsupported assertion. I'd like to know what this assumption is based on. Is there any reason to believe that there are vast numbers of people and "families" out there itching to become hams but were held back by the Morse code test? I don't see it.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3KQX on February 24, 2007
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I agree. The main shift will be to general/extra from tech, but the overall numbers of hams won't increase much. It is just too much of a niche hobby, and getting harder to play with big antennas (at least in the US).
However, there will be more interesting stuff to buy over the next few years, as we get used to SDRs and better battery systems (both borrowed from the cell phone industry). Personally, I'm still waiting for my all mode HT and repeater system.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by RX1 on February 24, 2007
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"The whole premise of the article that amateur population is destined to dramatically increase is an unsupported assertion. I'd like to know what this assumption is based on. Is there any reason to believe that there are vast numbers of people and "families" out there itching to become hams but were held back by the Morse code test? I don't see it."
I totally agree. When groups of people such as families consider it, it's typically with the intent of using it as an alternative to a cell phone. With the current healthy competition in the cell phone market, there's little incentive for those types. In addition, families had access to Amateur Radio LONG before the recent ruling. Most would've never found their way into the HF spectrum anyway.
The primary incentive will be with current Technician license holders, or "upgrades." I would expect very little change from the standpoint of new applicants for initial licensure.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KA3TGV on February 24, 2007
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Where will ham radio be in 50 years?
I don't know KF4HR... what you postulate sounds nice but my gut is telling me something different. Let me explain:
Ham radio isn't the center of the universe and our regulating authority, the FCC, isn't the top dog of regulatory agencies. In the scheme of things, ham radio doesn't count for much. Never did.
We have grave problems facing this nation, possibly the greatest challenges this nation has ever had to deal with. 50 years is a long time, and a lot can happen in 50 years.
Whimsy is nice, don't get me wrong. But 50 years, that's a long time, no on can tell what things will be like in 50 years.
In 50 years, the US might not be a sovereign nation. We could have been overrun by Mexico already, or defeated in a war with Red China. Who is to say?
Our regulatory authority for amateur radio could be far different, or not exist at all. Amateur radio might be an underground activity, like the Free French in WWII.
Or perhaps the US will still exist, the FCC will have thrown in the towel, and ham radio will be something akin to the 'freeband' silliness of these past few decades.
73
Doug
KA3TGV
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB2DLF on February 24, 2007
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In a "round about way", is it being implied that Ham Radio bands are the C.B. bands of the future???? The difference is the channels are wider. I agree that the technical skills will go by the wayside and with-out having to read to learn the answers (not meaning the answer books) so goes the knowledge of the operators. 73 to all.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0RZT on February 24, 2007
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Thanks for the article. I do, however, disagree with a couple of points...
I think there will still be a market for low-end new radios (<$750 (street price, constant dollars)). My first thought was "I'm no economist, but this seems to fit into the 'the first one may not be free, but it will be inexpensive' category". On further reflection -- the manufacturers make no profit from used radio sales. If they can produce an "entry-level" radio that's still profitable after parts, labor, and distribution, then they're offering folks who are looking for a sub-$1K station the choice between a used radio and one that "may not have filters as tight as the higher-end used radio, and it doesn't have the built-in spectroscope, but it has a warrantee, it's shiny, and it only costs one or two hundred dollars more than the used radio you were considering".
There'll certainly be a feedback loop between CW usage and CW availablity on new radios. If fewer people use CW, there'll be less demand for CW availability; if there's less demand for CW availability, CW usage will decrease. But I don't think CW will go away. Even if built-in capability completely goes away, CW ops can still add the capability. If the radio is software-defined, then there wouldn't even need to be any external circuitry - just create a cable to run from the microphone jack to the key or paddle. Even if the radio isn't software-defined, it can still be done - when I was looking to buy a used Radio Shack AM/SSB/FM 10-meter radio, I designed a circuit to inject a 600Hz tone to an SSB signal to send CW, and an AF bandpass filter centered on 600Hz to hear CW (and then I found a slightly better design on the internet, in that it drew power from the microphone jack and didn't need a separate battery). If I can do it, so can others.
Take care,
Chris
N0RZT/8
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K3AN on February 24, 2007
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There will be no Amateur Service in 50 years. The few hobbyists who actually wish to communicate over the air (instead of using one of the far more popular QSOnet-type services) will do so as freebanders. That's if they can find a quiet enough frequency amid the coming proliferation of unlicensed devices that use HF for short-range communication.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KY6R on February 24, 2007
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Internet access and telephone service will go wireless and on satellite.
The FCC will sell spectrum to any large corporation who want it - but I expect large corporations won't want much of the HF spectrum - but will want some of the UHF spectrum that we have. Microwave spectrum will be in hot competition between data carriers and large corporations. The "private network" will (again) become more popular as the internet as we know it today gets bogged down and so filled with viruses and hacking that it will no longer be secure enough for serious business transactions.
There will be a new influx of "micro broadcasters" and there will be more "hobbyist" broadcast stations in HF - as large corporate shortwave and government shortwave stations switch over to sattellite. The pirate radio crowd will be a bit bummed because they will be able to freely broadcast - but most will have switched to wireless internet. A few of these "home spun" stations will become bigger than YouTube. They will have DJ's and play great music with no commercials.
There will be lots more bandwidth available as everything goes digital.
There will be serious problems due to governments fighting over spectrum. There will be satellite jamming.
The ARRL will continue trying to get the FCC's attention, and while its always good to do the good fight, the FCC will follow its own agenda regardless. Spectrum protection will be more a global thing than a local thing. ARRL membership will stay about the same as far as percentage of hams goes.
The FCC might be subsumed into some new monolithic data based agency. It will go through years of its own turmoil as things get very political in the wireless data arena. Ham radio will have its heyday during this period, but there will also be more pirates and hackers on radio - at least for a short while.
Hams will still exist - but be in an even more "niche" as a hobby. But those who remain will be very passionate about ham radio - and it will be considered a cool part of "living history".
Some of the people who get into satellite wireless will think anything wireless is the coolest and become hams. But the number of hams will be about half what it is today.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AA4PB on February 24, 2007
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Had the CW requirement been dropped 20 years ago you would have seen a surge in the amateur population. Today everyone who wants communications has a cell phone and they have no need for amateur radio. I think amateur radio will continue about like it is with hams rag chewing, working DX, and contesting. The difference will be that fewer and fewer of them will have any interest in the electronics part of it.
The one area you will see a surge in is "WinLink type" operations, both for emergency communications and for those who do not have inexpensive access to other communications.
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Begging the question.
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by AI2IA on February 24, 2007
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KF4HR says, "...and with an amateur license becoming easier and easier to obtain...."
Where is the proof that an amateur license is becoming easier and easier to obtain?
With the progress in technology there will also come changes in the test questions to keep pace with important innovations in radio communications. This is not dilution of the license testing.
The FCC continues to keep the radio rules and regulations such that skill is needed to avoid harmful interference. They will continue to keep a high standard in the license testing to uphold that purpose.
This article for the most part is just a tool to be used by all the same old reactionaries to vent and wail and babble their same old gloom and doom and negativity about the future. As all previous predictions about the future prove, such predictions always turn out to be far from the mark. If you self-defeating hams get your jollies out of this opportunity, then have at it, but no one cares except your own kind.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB2MH on February 24, 2007
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In 50 years, people will still be complaining that "the hobby is dying" and that "we need to do something" about "the numbers" even though there are more hams than ever before.
There will only be one license class - an Amateur Radio License.
Tests will be dumbed down to a single test on regulations and safety only.
Homebrewing will be much rarer than it is today. Most "homebrewing" will be antennas or software.
No morse (today) will bring an initial surge in Generals and Extras. Nothing more. The rate of newcomers coming in will be slow.
The focus will be more on emergency communications and citizen disaster preparedness.
VHF/UHF allocations will be cut or degraded as follows:
2.4GHz will be mostly unusable because of consumer devices. 902MHz too. Our use of those bands will be severely limited.
70cm will be gone or cut in half.
222-225 MHz will be gone too.
2m will be chopped in half like it has been done in some other countries.
6m will stay.
Our microwave spectrum will slowly go away as more commercial interests find more useful purposes for them.
HF bands will be expanded as other services are decommissioned. Pactor/WinLink type of services will increase in number.
Class D CB will still be there, along with 11 meter pirating/freebanding.
HOA's will severely limit and effectively outlaw ham radio in all areas except out in the boondocks. Yes, even worse than today.
Due to rapid population expansion, there will be no space to put up decent antennas.
Consumer electronics like plasma TV's will pollute the HF spectrum making it much less usable. The noise floor will be very high.
Yaecomwood will undergo some sort of merger or cooperation. New radios won't change much. We'll still be using antiquated analog modes such as AM, FM and SSB. DSP will go all the way to the RF stage instead of just at the IF as it is now.
No mobile operation will be allowed by law.
All of these are based on current trends. Feel free to add or subtract as you wish.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0IU on February 24, 2007
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According to QRZ, David Sumner K1ZZ was born in 1949 which means he will be, if he not already is, 58 years old. In 50 years he will be 108 and I am sure he will still be the CEO of the ARRL!
Scott N0IU
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9NRW on February 24, 2007
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eHam will not longer exist....the readers will have shot themselfs.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W6TH on February 24, 2007
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.
Like all government decisions ham radio will turn out to be a government blunder.
Or put it another way; A usually serious mistake typically caused by ignorance or confusion.
.:Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? Only the shadow knows:.
.:
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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According to the ham radio psyshics: Smaller smaller smaller! DIGITAL DIGITAL DIGITAL! Ham radio is expanding and better than ever!
Think back to predictions that may have been made about fifty years ago concerning today (1957)??? Back then, everything was analog, most did not even use the word digital. A small radio was a mobile. Most hams used AM-rock-bound-boat-anchors. Few had TV, perhaps they'd predict ATV or something like slow scan. The thought of a home computer seemed impossible, they filled huge buildings at places like govy or bank installations. People were very skeptical about >the coming of robots and computers ala the digital age<. So I suppose they would have predicted a wrist radio like Dick Tracey used (this has happened). Maybe they predicted that tubes would be replaced by transistors, IC's were unknown. Jap rigs were considered as JUNK, I doubt they'd predicted YaeKenCom would dominate the ARS market. Everyone would use CW in the future! Robots were like Robby, the Robot at the '39 World's Fair, and like in the movie, "THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL". So perhaps they would have predicted a robot that would do your code for you, or remote controlled radios (that has come to pass). Perhaps they would have predicted repeaters, but they were on the verge of losing 11 meters to CB. I bet some predicted the demise of CB and that may have come true for many.
Maybe some hams felt that they'd make contact with UFO's and ET's! Or talk to hams on the moon or on space stations (that has happened)! Perhaps some old timers will chine in and tell of some predictions made long ago that did or did not happen.
As for prophecy of ham radio in our future, please remember that there is still a cold war so to speak, with even more enemies than the "commies", and ham radio may have its hayday with the military (civil defense) if our power sources and satellites are sabataged. Tube rigs, code, and adding machines may still be useful!
Great topic! 73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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<<<WB2DLF on February 24, 2007 Mail this to a friend!
In a "round about way", is it being implied that Ham Radio bands are the C.B. bands of the future???? The difference is the channels are wider. I agree that the technical skills will go by the wayside and with-out having to read to learn the answers (not meaning the answer books) so goes the knowledge of the operators. 73 to all.>>>
History tends to repeat itself (one reason the Bible facinates me). The ARS going down the toilet as CB did was because of the lax FCC not enforcing its rules over telecommunications. CB was corrupted bacuse of anarchy, likewaise the internet. Will the ARS go there too? We can police the bands, in that we can snitch to the FCC, but what will they do about reported illegal activity? Will policing the bands end up as vigilantism? Pinned coax, pulling down antennaes, jamming, misinformation intended to damage equiptment, internet bashing and bitching of lids? I mainly blame the FCC and Radio Shack for the demise of CB, and all that vigilantism did not stop it. If bozo's take over the bands and it becomes anarchy and maHAM, I think the decent people will simply quit the hobby rather than fight it. To me it looks like the future of ham radio is going down the same road that CB has gone.
Dooms day prophet! Have fun whilst you still can!
Heck, if the bombs start going off, there may not even be radio, it will become radio-active!
73, Don
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9DG on February 24, 2007
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Here's mine:
No Code licensing will be just a temporary blip in upgrades and a relatively few new licensees. After a year or two the overall licensing trends will continue.
CW use will be some less than it is today, with a majority of the operating with it being during contests.
HF band activity will be about the same as today with the majority of the band business being during contests.
A new digital DX/contest mode will emerge that will combine the extreme weak signal traits of WSJT (JT65) with the extreme fast signaling traits of WSJT (FSK441). This mode will automatically adapt the communications speed to match the conditions of the path between the two stations. This mode will also out-perform CW for both weak signal capability and speed for DX/Contest style contacts.
A 50/50 chance that Kenwood, Icom, and Yaesu will no longer be in the ham radio equipment market because one or more (or all) of them will determine that the sales volume within ham radio isn't worth the cost. They will have also misread the emerging world of SDR thus further eroding their sales volume. They will be replaced a few new companies that have more cost efficient engineering and product distribution structures.
The Internet will not be dramatically more interconnected into ham radio systems. This will be for the same reasons that the phone patching technology didn't become that highly used either.
The bands above 902 will increasingly be coming under attack and lost to commercial interests. The HF bands will be expanded some because the commercial interests there will continue to decline.
The older tube type gear that is being collected today will become largely forgotten. It will only be collected by those who are deeply interested in history; not those who are trying to recapture their youth (they will all be SK's). The current generation of gear will become the new hot "collectibles", because today's hams who can't afford much of it now will be trying recapture their younger years too. But given the increasingly higher average age of newcomers into ham radio this effect will not be nearly as dramatic as it is today.
Increasingly new hams will be coming from the ranks of computer hobbyists and the number coming in from the CB/FRS angle will be declining.
And this won't even be 50 years out but just 25-30.
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Yes, but you won't recognize it in 50 Years.
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by KQ6XA on February 24, 2007
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Here are a few of my predictions for ham radio in the year 2057.
To begin with, there will still be ham radio operators and experimenters in Year 2057, but...
1. Hams will need to salvage parts from old and existing products to make radios. There will no longer be widely available electronic components such as discrete transistors, resistors, and capacitors as we now know them. All IC chips will be proprietary, tightly controlled, and obsoleted at the end of their first production run.
2. All radios that use the RF spectrum will be software defined, almost zero cost, and operating as a small part of a computer that will be considered a mundane but configurable commonplace multi-purpose microprocessor.
3. Amazingly efficient RF power amplifiers combined with software pulse shaping will provide highly efficient communication modes at high power, without the need for heatsinking as we now know it.
4. Hams will be experimenting with another "electronic" type of communication method... beyond antennas, beyond radio, and beyond photons through the ether.
5. Ham radio will continue to see use as emergency backup communications. Virus attacks on communications systems, vast spambot nets that take nearly , and electronic terrorists will bring down mainstream public communications systems on a regular basis. Natural disasters from global extreme climatic change will displace coastal civilizations.
6. Since oil and the all the byproducts of it, such as gasoline and plastic will be gone, and other types of cheap energy will not be as portable as gasoline yet in 2057, there will be much less air travel and long distance vehicular travel. So there will be an increased need for communications to span long distances. Millions of people will die due to lack of food transportation. These problems will start to be solved in year 2058 when a new type of transportable energy source becomes available, but tightly controlled by the Microsoft China Corporate World Government.
73---Bonnie Crystal KQ6XA
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K8MHZ on February 24, 2007
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In 50 years the OTs will long for the old days.
In 100 years, that time WILL be the old days.
In 50 years the rigs will be smaller and a shack in a box will be a small HT.
We will have our HF frequencies, it is the UHF and up we will be fighting for.
And typing on forums like this will be ancient history, replaced by something we can't even fathom right now.
I will be 99 years old then. I hope I am still breathing and teaching new hams the ropes.
See you then!
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 24, 2007
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It will be more commonplace for an entire family to become licensed, and future FCC testing questions will be more geared toward actual communication operation, .........with less importance put on electronic theory."
>> Let's hope this prediction doesn't pan out, and I don't think it will.
Amateurs need to push in the opposite direction and use available resources to help new operators become more involved technically instead of the current tendency towards today's typical "Plug'n Play" HF station: a $3000 tranceiver w/auto tuner and a G5RV.
Our famous non-profit sponsor, the ARRL needs to direct more funding toward this goal. One way to do this is to spark more interest in homebrew projects via QST. Back in the early 80's, I stopped renewing my ARRL membership and subscription to QST in part because good technical articles were fading away. Instead, I subscribed to Ham Radio Magazine. The other day, I pulled out a stack of old issues and was impressed with some of the projects and technical articles, many of which could still be used today.
One predictions:
> In about 2-3 years, major improvement will be made to the currently exam process when the new Demonstrated Skills Element becomes the replacement for the old CW Element 1. Hams will be encouraged to learn practical skills and ease into more technically complex projects. as they use these skills regularly to enhance their capabilities.
...WA1RNE
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KJ5KX on February 24, 2007
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AI2IA... okay, I'll bite. Proof that getting a ham license is easier: no code. That, and the fact that everyone has both the questions AND the answers to all the tests! How difficult is THAT?! Used to be, you had to actually learn the THEORY (what a horrible concept - yet another hazing ritual)! Anyone remember Dick Bash?
Besides, the no-code Technician license was supposed to have saved the hobby years ago? Beyond an initial surge in applicants, it petered out. This alone was evidence that the code wasn't as much of a "barrier" as advertised.
So will this latest debacle prove it wasn't the code that was "holding everyone back".
My prediction... we've yet to see the push for a NO-TEST license!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1XZ on February 24, 2007
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Ham radio in 50 years? Maybe still around; maybe not. The world will have changed so drastically in that time there will be little resembling the way we live today. In that time fossil fuels will make up only a small fraction of the worlds energy usage, and geopolitical events will have reshaped the makeup of the world. There will be fewer poor countries, but the population of all countries will show much difference between the haves and the have nots. The internet and computers as we have them today will be a faint memory. Possibly your home will be your "computer" allowing entertainment and communications we can only dream about. Why would anyone talk on ham radio when the world is just a voice command away? Our VHF and higher frequencies may have been gobbled up by other yet to be imagined services, but probably the only hope for amateur radio will be that no one cares about plain old HF. So we might be still clinging to our boxes microphones and keys clutched in our aging hands, but I kind of doubt it. It is more possible that we will have blown ourselves to kingdom come and the world is ruled by field mice after the great water wars of 2030.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN4RH on February 24, 2007
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>>> Smaller smaller smaller!
In 50 years, my great-grandkids will become hams by using their i-Everything device to scan the bar-code number that was tatoed on their foreheads at birth, and selecting "Ham License" from the Universal Menu via routine mental telepathy link.
The System will instantaneous register them as a Ham and deduct the $14,000 fee from their net worth chip. No test will be necessary, since there will be no rules any more.
They'll place an order with YaeComWood for the latest transceiver, the FTICTS-666, which is the size of a grain of sand is implanted directly into the cerebral cortex by the i-Bot accessory.
They will select from the Universal Menu HamRadio>DX>100 to initiate the program that will automatically make 100 DX contacts by the Zofrin-778 mode. This will take about 3 minutes.
Then they'll have to wait 6 years for the ARRL bureau to forward all the printed QSL cards, because they still will not have recognized eQSL for awards credit, and Logbook of the World will have become SO secure that only the President and certain key members of the Above Top Secret MJ-13 will authorized to upload QSLs to it.
But suddenly - before they get their awards ... the aliens will invade Earth and they'll have to dig around in great-grandpa's attic to find his old Morse keys and QRP transmitters so that they can send signals around the world to coordinate the counter-attack.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1YW on February 24, 2007
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Wow!
That is the most Pollyanna view I have ever seen!
In fifty years there will be no ham radio--as we know it. Most 'amateur' comms will occur over in far less generous band allocations, almost all at UHF or higher. The Part 97 'amateur radio service' will become the 'public wireless service'. Almost all comms will be digital in some path of the link.
The expected onrush of new licensees will be a blip that will not be sustained: there are plenty of folks who can already get on ham radio with NO CODE, and the ones who think that dropping the the code will put them on 'shortwave' will be sorely disappointed to realize that their Tech licenses do little on on 'voice' save on the dead 10M band--note that almost all the 'new' no code allocations for techs are on CW!
Do you guys really think that we will suddenly have 100,000 new EXTRAS because of dropping the code?
Get real...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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And IF we are not called to duty do to acts of WAR, there are plenty of cotastrophies to keep us busy. Storms (tornadoes, hurricanes, ice, hail, lightening, etc.) can take out power systems and knock out communications. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamies, wild fires, global warming and the depleting of the ionisphere, asteroids heading towards earth, heck, MARS ATTACKS (YACK YACK)! ALL THAT CAN KNOCK OUT POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS FOR A LONG TIME. Govy backup comm will be for policing, disaster control (EBS), and FAA ATC, they will not bother with the needs of civilians that are freakin' because their celery phone don't work and their landline is out. What if our gasoline supply is cut off? What if the grid fails like it did here because of a glitch in an old antiquated power system, or if a nuclear reactor goes into China syndrome? It sems that there are plenty accidents waiting to happen and long overdo. Are we hams prepairred to provide backup and civilian communications as well as survival technics. I think it is a good idea for hams to be prepairred. Some joke abut homeland security, but this shit really happens! And we can help out when it does. Let's think about the future of ham radio with this in mind.
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KY1V on February 24, 2007
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I don't think we will have more hams entering the hobby, just more idiots from the current ranks yelling "BREAK" into their microphones to interrupt a conversation for which they can hear only one party.
Quite frankly, I completely ignore these fools!
I was calling CQ DX ASIA froim 6Y last week and a guy repeatedly called me with a NON ASSIGNED call, then had the nerve to tell me he wouldn't give me ANY points in the next contest because I wouldn't answer him.
And this is the future of our hobby?
David ~ KY1V
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AG4RQ on February 24, 2007
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With the passing of time, our technological advances keep progressing geometrically. Technological advancement is so rapid that in 50 years, what was state of the art today will be obsolete by the time we wake up tomorrow.
In 50 years, there won't be any ham radio. There won't be any TV, broadcast radio, cell phones or computers. These will all be replaced by a high-powered computer chip the size of a poppy seed embedded in the brain. All of society will be connected to a wireless Internet. There will be no need for speaking or keyboarding. All you have to do is think something and it will be communicated over the wireless Internet.
By 2057 we will have licked the problem of global warming and the planet should be returned to a pre-global warming status by 2077.
These things will come to pass unless some nut head of state in some rogue nation triggers World War III with a nuclear attack.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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I think it could go two ways in let's say thrity years...
To be a HAM, you'll have to be a mooslum, communist, or something else (no mo USA as we know it, - no mo FCC - no mo ARS).
-OR-
The Messiah will return and ham radio will be heavenly!
In the meantime, we might learn something from the Amish, how to operate when the electric goes off and we ain't gettin gas.
In denial, it ain't gonna happen? WWII almost was a whole different outcome, Yavoh? Sianara! Don
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by VE3ENG on February 24, 2007
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
Here are my predictions, whacky as they may seem...
1- "CW" mode will re-evolve again after WW4 (yes, WW4 not WW3). After fighting with sticks and stones; radio operators will be pounding brass in the dark.
2- Once the power grids are up and running again, "digital modes" will be the mode of choice. The amateur radio hobby will blossom again becoming more important than ever. "Super rigs" will become "Mega rigs". There will be 10 or 12 major radio companies to choose from not just three!
3- "eham.net" will re-surface again to give operators a chance to beat the (short lived) CW horse again. Even women and children will have a chance to log on and participate in this morbid ritual. Beat that horse good...Beat it "really" good.
4- WW5... :(
Cheers, 73
James, Ve3eng
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KY1V on February 24, 2007
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Let me clarify...
"I was calling CQ DX ASIA froim 6Y last week and a US station repeatedly called me with an UNASSIGNED US call, then had the nerve to tell me he wouldn't give me ANY points in the next contest because I wouldn't answer him."
David
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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Another reality that needs fixen for the future...
We have all this fantastic technology, and the future generations will be clueless as to how to develope it, repair it, and keep it working because we keep lowering the bar and dumbing down the school's standards where they go to have sex, do drugs and play games. Our technology is going to India and Asia, and they will be glad to use it against us someday. Will Asians rule the world? Heck, we can barely handle little Iraq with all the political nonsense, maybe a great militia, but dumbasses unable to use it! Our teachers come from colleges that teach bullshit, but they had a great time in college with all the parties and learning BS, garbage in garbage out! Am I just cinical pesamist, or realistic? Naaaaah, smaller smaller snaller, digital digital digital and much easier too!
Beware of false prophets aka psychics or fortune tellers. They look into their crystal ball and see a nice future for ham radio! Fifty bucks please to the no-code gypsies!
I might add the part that ham's have had diring the cold war, I knew a couple (SK's now) that worked for the CIA! Many hams work for the govy. Hey that's another thread here, predicting what govy surplus will filter its way to ham radio??? Not much! It seems that it is sold to foreign countries instead these days.
Doom's day here we come! Maranatha! Don
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K2ANE on February 24, 2007
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In 50 years we will be living in a total Police State and any kind of personal communications, such as Amateur Radio, will be illegal. The only communications possible for the average non-police citizen will be of a nature that can be scrutinized 100%, namely digital. So enjoy those 3885kc AM QSO's while you still can.
de K2ANE/2
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KD4AL on February 24, 2007
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I hope I'm wrong. But I suspect that in fifty years CW operators (like myself) will be looked on with the same gentle bemusement that some people now look upon Civil War reenactors.
If I'm around at that time (age 99) I'll still be proudly pounding the brass.
KD4AL
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KW1R on February 24, 2007
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Hmm let me see " Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? "....
50 years from now makes me 113 years old and ya know what I doubt I'll care!
Yep just another Old Fart...
de KW1R dit-dit
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W5AH on February 24, 2007
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To complete the dumbing down cycle of amateur radio the next step will be no-test licensing followed by no licensing. At that time the name "amateur radio" will be added to 47CFR part 95 and part 97 deleted.
Under the new rules the only thing a ham can do with his station is adjust the antenna to the radio (part 95.4).
This in itself can be a dangerous thing as it is not uncommon to see recent extra class licensees on the internet asking for help building a dipole antenna.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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If we're going to make wild-@%% predictions, here's mine.
Cycle 24 will be amazing. We'll all be working F2 DX on 6m ... Cycle 25, however, will hail the beginning of a fifty year sunspot minimum like the Maunder minimum. HF will be useless except for 160m and occasionally 80m. Only the very serious low band DXers will survive the boredom. HF equipment sales will drop dramatically until a Japanese billionaire whose granddad was a ham purchases all of the amateur radio capability of Icom, Kenwood, and Yaesu and petitions the ITU for permission to use unlimited power on the ham bands worldwide (we will have fusion power at that point, so no one will think it particulary wasteful).
The new Yaecomwood TFI-10^6s will all be GPS phase-synchronized and have 10kW output so that a large group of amateurs who want to open an HF band can program 5000 10kW transmitters to form an intense beam to ionize a patch of ionosphere for communications use.
Openings-on-demand will be a huge success until a peaceful mission from a planet of highly advanced short-tempered extraterrestrials is caught in the propagation-initiaton beam of a morning DX net on 20m.
The earth will then be swiftly destroyed.
73,
Dan
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N4SL on February 24, 2007
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There will be a tiny rush of wannabees joining ham radio and then an inevitable decline.
Absolutely nobody I know who isn't a ham knows the slightest thing about it and could care even less.
The "dude, ever hear of the internet?" line is the 99% response.
I'll be dead before ham radio dies, so I really truly don't care.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W5GNB on February 24, 2007
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-----------------------
"The new Yaecomwood TFI-10^6s will all be GPS phase-synchronized and have 10kW output so that a large group of amateurs who want to open an HF band can program 5000 10kW transmitters to form an intense beam to ionize a patch of ionosphere for communications use."
-----------------------
I think the FREEBANDERS or CB'ers may already have this equipment in operation. I could SWEAR I have heard openings up there when All of the Ham bands are esecentially DEAD!
I think Ham radio will simply decay into CB type operation until there is no one left that wants to listen to the crap that is already starting to migrate into the ham bands.
The "GOOD OLD DAYS" have come and gone. I am just glad that I got to enjoy the "Good Old Days" before it all went to the crapper!!
73's
Gary - W5GNB
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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I'm gettin' a little scared! Let's go back to the pretty Polyana future of ham radio.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W8KQE on February 24, 2007
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50 years from now, GM, Ford, Icom, Yaesu, and Kenwood will have merged, and all cars and rigs will be made in China. But at least vehicles will come standard with HF/VHF/UHF rigs, in additon to 'OnStar'! LOL!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W6TH on February 24, 2007
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.
Read the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, this should be a very good read to determine the length of time ham radio will survive in the next 50 years.
This country needs the advice of Hillary Rodham Clinton to set the world on -----. Notice the ham in the middle name. Its been around for generations.
Feel free to vote. Hillary can do a mans job.
.:
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W4KVW on February 24, 2007
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"HITLERY",can NOT even do BILL much less a MANS job! hehehehahaha When HELL freezes over will she EVER win!
In 50 years the FCC will answer the questions for you & pay you $12 to take the test!
W4KVW
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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KF4HR, I appreciate your optimism, but I think things like:
"VHF/UHF cross-country linked communications will become as commonplace as cell phone communications. "
are pretty silly.
There's no way that hams are going to build a network that even touches the cell phone network in ubiquity. I'm not even going to touch the issue of usage. Commercial wireless communication is going to continue to become higher in bandwidth and cheaper... ham radio is NOT useful as an alternative to commercial communications pathways, especially if it uses them.
I think the only thing that the VHF/UHF/SHF bands are going to be good for in fifty years (if they still exist for hobbyists) is experimentation with weak signal.
Maybe if we make good use of the spectrum by making a concerted shift to digital.
Someone should go into business making plug-and-play fast radio modems on 70cm and above. An ad-hoc digital UHF network would be cool... you'd still need nodes on big towers to span a whole city, but the hardware requirements wouldn't include things like expensive duplexers.
Dan
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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"Ham radio died yesterday."
Is that why I'm not hearing anything on 10m?
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0XMZ on February 24, 2007
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Didn't we just have this thread?
Wasn't it called "famous ham myths"?
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KX8N on February 24, 2007
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"Ham radio died yesterday."
Wow, judging from the fact that the bands today sound exactly as they did 7 days ago, it doesn't sound like anything significant has happened to them.
Who would have guessed...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W7AIT on February 24, 2007
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We keep beating this topic to death, over and over and over again.
Repeat after me:
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
Rhetorical topics such as this one, religion, politics, CB hoards over running the bands, and CW are controversial and are a waste of time; we keep beating the same dead horse and it just lies there, its dead, it’ll never get up…….
Again, repeat after me.....
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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In 50 years, man will go beyond the speed of light! Warp Ten Capeeton!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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In fifty years... ham radio will become "just a hobby".
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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W7AIT says: "we keep beating the same dead horse and it just lies there, its dead, it’ll never get up……. "
I don't think you understand that us here on the internets really enjoy horse smoothies.
Dan
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6AJR on February 24, 2007
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I remember in the 1960's and 70's the thought of the future was flying cars and hotels on the moon and so on.
who would have thought we would have all the disasters we have today.
and no one predicted our biggest hassel would be identity theft and SPAM on the computer.
never saw that comming.
in 50 years, I will probably still be using my FT 101 ZD...:)
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KG4RRN on February 24, 2007
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I imagine the following;
Ham Radio will survive another war, or two, and come out shining...2050 U.S. may not be under stars and bars, or a country.
New young hams will have a great time entering in freq. information to their "software defined appliances".(enter I-SU-COM)especially from Japan...
Anyone will be able to order a robot (personal amateur applicance) to scan "all bands" for signs of life from other parts of the world which have been recently destoyed...and find a ham who has gone through hell and back..with megawatts at his disposal to QRP with.
Hackers/hams will be able to hack into a power grid to carry on illegal conversations(NWO) with the underground ham network (Vortex of Chaos), who regularly disrupt government communications for the fun of it...
Wireless internet will take to the skies as anyone with a laptop and GPS reciever and a portable satellite dish will be able to tap into the internet...
Civilization in some land areas will not be as civilized due to several civil wars, and world wars,
so amateur radio will not be availble to those areas.
The meteorite of 2036 will cause mass destruction and tidal waves and actually reshape part of the USA continent...as will a rise in temperature and hurricanes...keeping population under control.
We discover that the Earth is actually controlled by aliens living underground, and who come out every so often to clean up overpopulations, and environmental toxic waste...so that is the way it will be....
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K8MHZ on February 24, 2007
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Hobby?
The word 'hobby' appears nowhere in Part 97. NOWHERE.
The word 'service' or 'services' appears 172 times.
97.1 is very specific about the intents and purposes of amateur radio. There is nothing there that addresses amateur radio as a pastime or a leisure activity.
Based upon a preponderance of evidence I feel, quite strongly, that amateur radio is a service.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB2MH on February 24, 2007
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KC8QFP wrote:
>In fifty years... ham radio will become "just a hobby"
In 0 years it will become "just a hobby" because it is "just a hobby."
Ham radio used to be the breeding ground for great ideas and new inventions. Now it's simply a place for people to spend their spare time using their store bought appliances.
The homebrewers and inventors have moved on to other things - free software, wi-fi and the internet, or simply to places where they can make money instead of wasting it on ham radio.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1YW on February 24, 2007
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"KC8QFP wrote:
>In fifty years... ham radio will become "just a hobby"
In 0 years it will become "just a hobby" because it is "just a hobby."
Ham radio used to be the breeding ground for great ideas and new inventions. Now it's simply a place for people to spend their spare time using their store bought appliances.
The homebrewers and inventors have moved on to other things - free software, wi-fi and the internet, or simply to places where they can make money instead of wasting it on ham radio. "
-------------------------------------
To a large extent, IMO this is quite true.
It doesn't have to be that way...
The irony here is that the wireless revolution happened, in no small part, from the expertise and efforts of HAMS.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by BHARDIMON on February 24, 2007
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The Old Fat White Weidos will die off and Ham Radio will become filled with enegetic FORWARD thinking youth. Never again will we have to see "HI HI" in print or on the air. Never again will we have to listen to OLD MEN attempting to verify their importance. Never again will we have to watch OLD MEN make themselves look like fools and not even be vaguely aware of it. Never again will the public have to be embarrassed by STRANGE KOOKS filled with self importance using ancient technology and thinking they are the Savior.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1YW on February 24, 2007
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Hmmm... that would 'be hard, man', to imagine...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9XCR on February 24, 2007
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"Internet access and telephone service will go wireless and on satellite."
It's already on both, but satellite internet SUCKS. I used to have Starband, and the latency sucked for more than just games. For the record...I'm not a gamer. Starband's practice of having customers sign a contract at one bandwidth, then significantly cutting down on allocated bandwidth also turned me off to satellite internet altogether.
Chris
N9XCR
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N7YA on February 24, 2007
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All this doom and gloom...and i bet in 50 years hams that DONT live in the US will still be enjoying their hobby like before, maybe more updated technology than now, but they just dont act like we do on a large scale. When did we get so self important?
The original post asked where ham radio will be in 50 years, but i dont recall him saying only in the states. So if it all goes to hell and the world is collapsing around your comfortable ham radio bubble and the hounds are at the door ready to rip your "rights and freedoms" out of your patriotic clutches...then simply move to Belgium or Japan where they will likely still be enjoying their ham radio like before...or hey, try a country where life ISNT so peachy as it is here...try to get on the air at all from some countries without getting arrested or shot, that should effectively put things into perspective nicely.
I know, i know...lets all try to relax and get along...blah blah blah. most of you will be dead in 50 years anyway, im fairly young and in 50 years i will be 91, I will be happy with a long jouney in the books and a job well done if i can make it that far, hell, i will just be happy to have a good BM at that age. If im still around at 91, i will be happy to have SOME hobby i enjoy. get the pattern? i will try like hell to be HAPPY with something...anything. and if i make it that far and am happy, its because i dont get worked up and stressed out over what MIGHT happen in 50 years. I just try to make 'right now' a more habitable place for me and those close to me, and PLAN for future contingencies instead of fearing them. i want the future to be an easier ride due to being proactive about it.
Seriously guys, ham radio will be fine, the country may not be, but ham radio will be fine in whatever capacity it ends up. even if it isnt, Ham radio is not worth bringing your blood pressure up to unacceptable levels over.
Heres a short and simple guideline, when certain subjects start firing you up, just remember, its ham radio and not someone telling you that you have to move out of your house or your family is being taken away never to be heard from again...this happens in other countries right now, so what are YOU stressing out over? if you find yourself getting stressed, get out of the house and take a drive to the mountains or a lake, just hit the reset button. If ham radio stresses you out more than a couple of times a month, maybe its no longer the hobby for you.
I have read your words and i agree with many of you, i also respect your opinions, but i will actually accept a point of view more readily when its calmly thought out and not emotionally spewed. weve survived certain doom before, we can do it again.
73...Adam, N7YA
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RE: Begging the question.
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by KF4HR on February 24, 2007
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AI2IA writes: "Where is the proof that an amateur license is becoming easier and easier to obtain?"
1. Shift from:
* 20, 13, and 5wpm code tests, to
* A no-code licenses, to
* 5wpm code tests for TP, Gen, and Extra, to
* No code requirement.
It would be interesting to take a look at the total number US licensed amateurs both before, and a few years after the no-code license was instituted. Seems to me our numbers were somewhat stagnate prior to the no-code license, somewhere around the 450,000 mark, and I believe I remember seeing a number somewhere around 700,000 mark now. Reasons are obvious. Anyone ever hear (or say!) a statement similiar to this, "The Code was holding me back from getting my license (or upgrading)." I expect to see another smart increase in our total numbers over the next few years, which will eventually level off.
2. The shift from "FCC 3-piece suit types" giving amateur tests, to VEC testing. No doubt the VEC method is a honest and upstanding testing procedure, but the intimidation factor is much less. Ask any amateur that has taken tests under both procedures.
3. The shift from failing a code or written test at the FCC and being sent away for 30 days; to being allowed to immediately re-take the test you just failed, a few mintues later. (I'm not sure if this is true at all VEC sessions or not).
4. More and more educational and computerized training material available. And the internet access brings a wealth of knowledge and testing procedures for anyone wishing to hunt for it.
5. One less written test to pass (Advanced).
Before the hot-head's starts throwing stones, I'm not saying anything is wrong with any of this; only that these changes took place.
AB2MH: Excellent predictions! Good point about the "one license class." I think you're right. It used to be that way prior to mid-60's, and it sure seems like we're heading in that direction again.
I expected a few would take this thread out of context. (And those types never fail to disappoint! :^) For the rest, thank you for adding your predictions. Interesting!
KF4HR
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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<<<<< The Old Fat White Weidos will die off and Ham Radio will become filled with enegetic FORWARD thinking youth. Never again will we have to see "HI HI" in print or on the air. Never again will we have to listen to OLD MEN attempting to verify their importance. Never again will we have to watch OLD MEN make themselves look like fools and not even be vaguely aware of it. Never again will the public have to be embarrassed by STRANGE KOOKS filled with self importance using ancient technology and thinking they are the Savior. >>>>>
I'm 52, I guess I'm gettin old, I'm a wierd old fart and I am self important! Respect your elders, something youngsters are not learning these days! We are the wise old men of amateur radio ready to elmer those wet behind the ears punks who do not appreciate us! This fat old kook likes to teach the ignorant fools of tomarrow something useful and good, so they don't end up a panty waste. Kids these days! HI HI!
I predict that through the modern miracles of medicine, we will go well beyond the life expectancy of 90, and live to be 400 yours old! Sory kid, but us old farts will still be there to embarress you and guess what...
I predict that you will be an old fart that is a fat ass, that is embarrassing, and self important (whereas no one will listen to your folly)! Yes young man, you'll be an old fart too someday! And you have a headstart at being a kook, after all you are a ham! HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W6TH on February 24, 2007
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.
Did Hillary Rodham Clinton have a face lift? She "sure" looks 50 years younger.
I wonder what she, Hillary, will look like in 50 years from now?
Will slick willie still be tailgating her?; To bamboozle Hillary out of her money?
.:
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by G0GQK on February 24, 2007
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I read, read, and read www.dieoff.org but the pages had nothing at all to do with amateur radio, just another collection of doom.
I believe the hobby will not really advance in the next 50 years, and the technical advances will be focused on computer technology. Families will not use the radio frequencies of amateur radio as a method of communication, but this will be made possible via satellite to all parts of the world.
Morse Code will be looked upon as we look at the use of Latin as a language today, an old unused form of communication. Only hobbyists will use the method. Perhaps some of the radio frequencies will be taken by the military but most to prevent their use by international terrorists but most of the of activity both for commercial and military will be on VHF and UHF via satellite.
There will be more use made of solar, wind, and wave power, and the traditional fossil fuels will be regarded as a highly important source of power and not to be wasted, but most power will be generated by nuclear power stations.
The nations of the Far East will be the leaders of the latest technologies, Japan, which is light years ahead of America and Europe, China, Taiwan, and Korea. The countries of the Old World will gradually recede in importance and be less influential in world events. the members of the EU will provide very little in new technology, as will Russia, but Britain and America together will produce what little advancement is made in the western hemisphere.
Countries will become overcrowded as people move from parts of the world affected by either excessive heating or flooding as the higher temperatures will affect farming, feeding the populations, and in some areas excessive water, in other areas, a dire shortage of water.
In many countries martial law will have to be enforced, this will happen in America, its happening now, in Britain as well. This is because of the vast number of people moving around the world to survive.
It is quite possible that because of the government controls on people, the free use of radio frequencies will not be permitted because of the possibility of anarchy. Only those with special government permits will be allowed to use a shortwave radio, just like wartime. However, there will be those with deep pockets and a willing generosity who will grease the palms of important government figures, as they have always done, in order to be able to continue having amateur radio as their exclusive hobby.
My crystal ball has now become cloudy, and a thick mist has covered my gaze.
G0GQK
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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dr. Vito,
Happy "Dumbing-Down Day (Feb.23, 2007) and may all of the up & coming Gen/Extras (NO-CODE'ers) be as wise & pragmatic as yourself!!!
Now "Elitism" will be taken to a HIGHER LEVEL!!!
OH WELL!!!
Our warmest Regards OT!!!
Jim/ee
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"The Old Fat White Weidos will die off and Ham Radio will become filled with enegetic FORWARD thinking youth. Never again will we have to see "HI HI" in print or on the air. Never again will we have to listen to OLD MEN attempting to verify their importance. Never again will we have to watch OLD MEN make themselves look like fools and not even be vaguely aware of it. Never again will the public have to be embarrassed by STRANGE KOOKS filled with self importance using ancient technology and thinking they are the Savior. "
Weird! What world does that doofus live in? Just curious!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"Again, repeat after me.....
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…
It's just a hobby…"
Nope. I would prefer NOT to repeat lies. If I want lies, I will make up my own.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"No doubt the VEC method is a honest and upstanding testing procedure, but the intimidation factor is much less. Ask any amateur that has taken tests under both procedures."
Absolutely correct - from one who has done both.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on February 24, 2007
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As I have said for years, CB and Ham Radio will be one some day.I feel this way because of what I have seen through my over 30 years of being in Ham Radio and what I have seen the ARRL doing to Ham Radio to get more members. The ARRL has sold Ham Radio`s sole for members. It`s a sad thing to see. There will be a day where we just sign our name on a piece of paper saying we understand the rules and regs. and we will be licensed. Thats where it is heading, I believe. If you want Ham Radio to become just like CB keep supporting the ARRL. If you don`t, Let the ARRL know. They might listen. Just remember they have a business to run so the Money will come first for them. Ham Radio will be second. A conflict of interest maybe? You decide. I know I sound negative. I love Ham Radio. I continue to learn and build equipment. I just hate to see the day when the roger beeps and echo junk end up here. I thought we deserved better than what is happening and will happen more as time goes by. We have a band for people to operate on who don`t care to learn much about electronics and who like talking to others. Thats CB. We were always one step or more above that in Ham Radio. Ham Radio was for people who were serious about communications and learning more about electronics and people all over the world. Now all that is going away. You decide who to thank for that. I know who I thank, or who sold us out. We Hams deserve better than this.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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AH Mr. K4JF!!!
You do not have a clue about "Human-nature!!!"
Is it only a "HOBBY?" Yes of course but it's much more than that as well AS YOU SHOULD KNOW!!! But you cannot legislate "Human-Behavior!!!" So your "Glass-House" is being destroyed!!!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"2050 U.S. may not be under stars and bars..."
Interesting comment. Of course, as a Southerner, I wish we were under the Stars and Bars now, but I really don't think it will happen! :o) (For the uneducated, the "Stars and Bars" was the first national flag of the Confederate States of America. Rarely seen nowadays, but check out the new Georgia state flag, which is the Stars and Bars with the state seal added.)
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RE: Begging the question.
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"Anyone ever hear (or say!) a statement similiar to this, "The Code was holding me back from getting my license (or upgrading)."
Yep. Amd in EVERY case, without exception, when the code was removed, not one of those people went on to get a license. Not the first one! It was just an excuse and the only thing that happened with the code removal is that they had to hunt for another excuse.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"Gen/Extras (NO-CODE'ers) "
There is no such thing. There is General and there is Extra. No other words apply.
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RE: Begging the question.
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"One less written test to pass (Advanced)."
Nope, two. Novice was eliminated at the same time. (but should be brought back, IMO.)
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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THERE WAS SUCH A THING PRIOR TO FEB 23RD!!!
My!!! How quickly does the supposed HUMAN-MIND forget!!!
Enjoy 75m/ with all of your new brethren!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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It's sorta like the recent EXTRA-entrants only having to DO 5wpm & NOW ZERO wpm!!!
So much for the supposed "TOP-LICENSE!!!"
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W6TH on February 24, 2007
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.
NN6EE
In the future not far off, the U.S. military, including the U.S. Marines will kill many of their own American citizens by order of the high command, due to rejection of government control. ( Same as when Lincoln was president )
..A member of an irregular, usually indigenous military or paramilitary unit operating in small bands in occupied territory to harass and undermine the American government, as by surprise raids. Guerrila warfare.
Same as in Iraq, only here in America. Arms will be smuggled into America and bought from Russia and other haters of America.
The United States is in trouble and the worst is yet to come. Too many lawyers with their greed, but the meek shall prevail.
England will turn against America and will remain again an enemy as of the past. (Year 1812).
America needs a smaller government, not the 444 plus of today, but much less.
The rest later as my glass is getting cloudy again.
.:
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W7ETA on February 24, 2007
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Huuuuum. Lets see.
11 year sunspot cycles; about 4.5 cycles from now, puts us around a peak--pretty good for ham radio.
73
Bob
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W3LK on February 24, 2007
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In as much as I doubt I'll live to be 113, I take the view of Rhett Butler ...
Frankly Gentlemen, I don't give a damn!
73,
Lon - W3LK
Baltimore, Maryland
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No Ham Radio in 50 years.
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by WB4M on February 24, 2007
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Doug, we've ALREADY been over-run by Mexicans!
"We could have been overrun by Mexico already, or defeated in a war with Red China. Who is to say?"
When this subject comes up, I have always thought that advances in technology will be the end of ham radio. Not CW, blah blah blah.
Just look at how cell phones have affected ham radio.. many (like myself) replaced their 2 meter rigs with the autopatch feature with a cell phone. Look at all the electronic gizmos that young people are so fascinated with. Who knows, in 50 years there will no need for a hobby such as ham radio..
Look at how digital cameras have affected photograhy. I bet you can't give an enlarger away anymore, along with other darkroom supplies. It only took a few years too.
I just hope our great country is still here in 50 years, but I really have bad vibes....
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RE: No Ham Radio in 50 years.
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by KV6O on February 24, 2007
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It's threads like this where folks feel compelled to vent there spleen about whatever they don’t like about the hobby that turn me off. I refuse to partake in discussions like… woops!
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RE: No Ham Radio in 50 years.
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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The BRITs are still pissed-off about losing the 13 colonies plus half of the world then held in BONDAGE by them!!!
GAWD save the illustrious "British-Empire!!!"
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on February 24, 2007
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G0GQK
Very interesting stuff. I only hope my kids will have a good life when I`m gone.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WX4O on February 24, 2007
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It may be gone, just like the rest of us, due to nuclear
exchanges, EMP, etc. Terrorists will, in the meantime,
make ham radio dangerous as 'beacons', and it will be shut down as in WWII in the U.S. Pessimistic? Yes.
Realistic, good chance, although I won't be around in 50 years, I very much hope my predictions are untrue.
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Ham Radio Will Be in 50 Years!
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by AI2IA on February 24, 2007
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Fifty years from now amateur radio will still be functioning. However, most of the doomsayers, naysayers, self-hating hams, ham scoffers, BPL supporters, and ARRL bashers will have long since bitten the dust. eHam.net will be written up in the psychopathology textbooks.
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RE: Yes, but you won't recognize it in 50 Years.
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by WB6MMJ on February 24, 2007
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Re: KQ6XA
I liked reading what you had to say. I don`t agree with all of it but it was still interesting. You must have done allot of thinking about how Ham Radio would be in 50 years, or less.
Randy/WB6MMJ
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KD4LLA on February 24, 2007
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I have enjoyed many of the comments, mostly doom and gloom. Did the American Photography League shutdown when picture taking went digital? Are Polaroid and Kodak out of business? Fifty years from now there will still be radio, er, wireless.
At one time Amateurs used to be on the cutting edge, we failed to evolve. We will be the only ones using boat-anchor technology in fifty years, "you will have to pry my dead fingers from the key" will be the slogan!
Maybe global warming is not so bad, by 2057, I will be long gone anyway...
Mike
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RE: Ham Radio Will Be in 50 Years!
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by WB6MMJ on February 24, 2007
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AI2IA
And just maybe the ARRL will be no longer because of their actions of today. Bashers? No just people who care more about Ham Radio than business.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W5HTW on February 24, 2007
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ANSWER A: At first I agreed. But then I disagreed. I voted to vote for it, then I voted to vote against it. I voted, then I did not vote. I agreed to vote to disagree, then I disagreed on whether to not vote to agree or to vote to disagree, or perhaps to disagree to not vote to agree.
ANSWER B: What the hell is ham radio, anyway? A stepping stone to Freeband?
ANSWER C: Mexico?
ANSWER D: No hablo Americano.
ANSWER E: There ain't no ham radio now. How are we going to have some in 50 years?
Ed
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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WX4O says "Terrorists will, in the meantime,
make ham radio dangerous as 'beacons', and it will be shut down as in WWII in the U.S."
I think the terrorists know where their targets are.
KD4LLA says "At one time Amateurs used to be on the cutting edge, we failed to evolve."
We couldn't have evolved to stay on the cutting edge as a service. Radio communications, like every other technology, eventually got to the point where you absolutely had to be a specialist to really push the technology forward.
You don't see a lot of amateur lithographers pushing the envelope of putting more transistors on a computer chip.
You don't see a lot of amateur biologists sequencing genomes in their basements.
You don't see a lot of amateur aircraft builders inventing new aluminum alloys.
To be on the cutting edge of a mature technology, you have to have lots of money and lots of training in everything that came before. You need more man hours than any individual can put in, so you need a bunch of specialists. To be on the cutting edge of an infant technology, you just have to be bright and creative and experiment a lot with what you have on hand. That was early radio. That was early aeronautics.
That said, there are still hams making advances in communications technology. The desire to make contact in marginal conditions has given rise to new digital modes and signal processing techniques even recently.
Not all of us are advancing the radio art directly, but we're often testing new advances. People are downloading and using WSJT to make moonbounce contacts, for example.
- - - - - -
Still, I don't think we're to blame for our failure to continue being on the cutting edge. There are too many of us to expect all of us to be brilliant specialists.
Ham radio will survive if interest stays high enough, but we're not capable of advancing the radio art at a staggering rate. I guarantee you, though, that a vibrant ham radio hobby will spawn new specialists who will make significant advances in radio communications... think of ham radio's role in advancing radio technology as inspirational now rather than technical.
Dan
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AA4PB on February 24, 2007
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At one time Amateurs used to be on the cutting edge, we failed to evolve
----------------------------------------------------
*Part* of the reason for this is that technology has evolved beyond the point where one person can develop it in his home shop.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NN6EE on February 24, 2007
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Is'nt amazing BOYZ that there's alotta descent about what ought to transpire out here, but yet NOBODY is actually going to put forth any solution that will get ALL OF US out of this MORASS!!!
It's sorta of like what we AMERICANS are experiencing in IRAQ up until now, our LEADERS DON'T HAVE A FRIGG'N "IDEA!!!"
Even CHENEY is "dummying down BUSH!!!"
Sweet dreams!!!
Jim/ee
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by BHARDIMON on February 24, 2007
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The Democrats have a solution...The "Slow Bleed". Which wars do these little Democrats fight ? Only the easy ones ?
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0AH on February 24, 2007
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KY1V writes:
"was calling CQ DX ASIA froim 6Y last week and a guy repeatedly called me with a NON ASSIGNED call, then had the nerve to tell me he wouldn't give me ANY points in the next contest because I wouldn't answer him."
Is this our future? I think if we are going to survive the next 50 years as a hobby, we need to get a back bone. This rubbish won't teach the youth of tomorrow what we need as men today to help the hobby survive-
Strength and Honor- ARRL
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0AH on February 24, 2007
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Huummmmm....where are all the soon to be no code general and extra's at today? I think they must feel like they are sitting in a movie theatre where they snuck into feeling bad about watching the show- Suttle group..............................Our future
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 24, 2007
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One aspect of ham radio that surely isn't going to improve our public service and technical capabilities over the next 50 years;
"Professional Contesting"
We have to come up with things that are just a tad more significant that show value and have a positive impact on the public.
>>>> WA1RNE
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K0PD on February 24, 2007
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Heck i don't have a idea where ham radio will be 30 or 100 year's from now but here is what i do know.That is the FCC tinkered with CB licensing and that ended up a pretty much a dead hobby at least where i'm at and all those big number's and renewed interest in cb just did not happen. As to the great influx of new general's i suspect the same group that gave all the reason's they could not learn code will be the same one's who will make excuses for not upgrading. In fact i personally know one Ham that is already doing that.I guess most Liberal ideology is beyond common sense as like at my job we start work now about 2 hr's later than we used to and the same one's who were late then are late now. ....
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K0PD on February 24, 2007
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Heck i don't have a idea where ham radio will be 30 or 100 year's from now but here is what i do know.That is the FCC tinkered with CB licensing and that ended up a pretty much a dead hobby at least where i'm at and all those big number's and renewed interest in cb just did not happen. As to the great influx of new general's i suspect the same group that gave all the reason's they could not learn code will be the same one's who will make excuses for not upgrading. In fact i personally know one Ham that is already doing that.I guess most Liberal ideology is beyond common sense as like at my job we start work now about 2 hr's later than we used to and the same one's who were late then are late now. ....
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6KYS on February 24, 2007
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This hobby will still be filled with the biggest bunch of geeks, losers and dorks on the planet. Forget issues of morse code, no code, digital modes, old guys versus young guys. The biggest downside to this hobby is, and has always been, a large element of social losers and misfits....void of any concept of hygiene, a healthy body mass, or even the slightest amount of social grace that would make this a much more civilized and enjoyable pursuit.
Just take notice at any hamfest. 50 years won't change this very much, I'm afraid.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB2WIK on February 24, 2007
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50 years is a long time. Tough prediction.
But I don't think amateur radio licensees will grow in number at any alarming rate simply due to the "no code" change. Anybody really interested in getting a license always could learn code, so only those really interested did so.
Eliminating that marginal requirement, which I've taught to many kids younger than age 10 without any problem at all, I doubt will account for any real increase in the number of hams domestically or globally.
It's still a tinkerer's hobby. When there's no more tinkering left to do, that's when the hobby will have no reason to exist.
I don't need ham radio to talk with anyone, anywhere there is telephone or internet service. The "need" for the hobby disappeared long ago. But hams do continue to innovate.
The average person doesn't know how many commonly used, take-for-granted technologies today began with hams tinkering. Just yesterday when I heard of a local auto theft recovery made possible by the owner's "LoJack" system, I remembered that company was started by two local hams, who got the idea for the system while tinkering with 220 MHz repeaters.
An old ham radio Elmer of mine was responsible for inventing the telephone DTMF "touch tone" system at Bell Labs in Whippany, NJ. The parametric amplifier was invented by a ham, as was the early research and development performed at the world's largest radiotelescope in Arecibo, P.R.
The military funded early moonbounce experiments, but it took hams to really make it work, and another ham to develop coding to make it commonplace and easily achievable.
The idea of mirroring data for fault tolerance in data storage was developed by a ham, who's still an active 6m enthusiast.
Fifty years? I don't know. But for now, the "hobby" continues to flourish and spawn innovation.
WB2WIK/6
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W9OY on February 24, 2007
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There won't be any radio, TV or any thing else.
We will all be jacked in permently with wet ware connections.
73 W9OY
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KE7HFQ on February 24, 2007
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In 50 years Amateur Radio will more fun than it is now. There will be a lot more technology to play with as communications branches out to other forms of carriers other than RF and digital modes are increased.
I upgraded to General today. I was going to wait and study more but I only missed one question so I guess I was ready.
Where we'd normally have 20 people taking exams there were 60+. I expect to see the numbers slow some but remain higher than before. I might go back next month to upgrade to Extra just to see how many people show up. I almost took the Extra exam too but the VECs were way behind.
I didn't see any CBer types. There were a few parents with their kids, the whole family was taking exams.
The Tech license is not designed to eliminate everyone except Electrical Engineers. Its only real purpose is to demonstrate that the person has the minimum knowledge needed to get on the air without causing harm to themselves or others.
It then becomes our responsibility to Elmer the new folk into knowledgeable operators.
I see the future of Amateur Radio as being very positive. Elitism is gone. Amateur Radio will benefit.
73 Mike
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 24, 2007
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Hmmm, all this fussing with antennaes, puttin' out alotta $$$, and contesting (where would ham radio be without the DXers) - just to simply talk with other geeks on the radio! It's only a hobby, why all the fuss? It does seem a tad bit extreem now that I think about it. All that to simply talk on a radio - it's just a hobby! God help us - ham radio is going...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC6TOA on February 24, 2007
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if one thinks the vhf/uhf ham bands will be cut away in 50 years, you gotta consider the implications of the elimination of NTSC broadcast television in the USA.
So many televisions are connected to cable or dish instead of a v/uhf antenna to receive programs. One has to wonder what percentage of viewers would be effected if all broadcast television vanish and all tv was delivered on dish and cable.
On the same token, how well will 8vsb propagate into rural america? or will rural viewers be better off with a dish? It all has big implications for the use of 54-88, 174-216 and 500-700Mhz.
and on a related note: Where will the *USA* be in 50 years? dont be so USA-centric. up-and-comers like china and india... what of ham radio in those countries? or for that matter, any other country making technology a priority would be cultivating radio nerds.
<beep> <-end of transmission roger-beep
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Tide is out!
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by AI2IA on February 24, 2007
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Ever notice how most of the posts on eHam.net remind you of the things you see on the beach at low tide?
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AI2IA on February 24, 2007
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Hams will still be enjoying amateur radio. They will still be doing what they like best in ham communications while ignoring the snobs, the scoffers, the doomsayers, the good old boys, and the self-hating hams. Oh, these guys will be there too, on the sidelines hawking their nonsense and being as effective then as they are today, except they might not any longer have a web site to wretch on.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KB5DPE on February 24, 2007
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"You don't see a lot of amateur aircraft builders inventing new aluminum alloys."
Maybe not, but you DO see them using new composites and using existing ones in new ways to build and improve homebuilt aircraft. They, unlike hams, have not thrown away technical innovation.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA8VBX on February 24, 2007
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N6KYS do you fit what you describe? Lets see I am 55yrs old, I run marathons, I shower daily if not more, and brush my teeth, would say I comb my hair, but I shave my head. I am a college grad, retired military, and work full time as a dispatcher for local police/fire/rescue.
Now you might think I am a exception to your entry but I find it to be more the norm, then your entry.
Fifty years from now, to far for me to see ahead even if I am hear. A lot have changed since I was first licensed and it will change a lot faster.
73
Kurt
K8YZK
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RE: Tide is out!
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by KB5DPE on February 24, 2007
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"Ever notice how most of the posts on eHam.net remind you of the things you see on the beach at low tide?"
Like this one? Yes!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 24, 2007
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"homebuilt aircraft. They, unlike hams, have not thrown away technical innovation"
What makes you think hams have thrown away technological innovation? Read QST sometimes.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W5TD on February 24, 2007
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KQ6XA wrore: " Millions of people will die due to lack of food transportation. These problems will start to be solved in year 2058 when a new type of transportable energy source becomes available, but tightly controlled by the Microsoft China Corporate World Government."
Sorry, but the trilateralists will never let that sort of thing happen.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0AH on February 24, 2007
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N6KYS........
Quit making so much fun of the Dayton crowd!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by BHARDIMON on February 24, 2007
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For the most part, QST is technical information rehashed since 1950. It's so old world it gives me the willies. The magazine alone smells like moth balls.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 24, 2007
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"What makes you think hams have thrown away technological innovation? Read QST sometimes."
I'd take that farther and say read QEX sometime.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KX8N on February 24, 2007
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"For the most part, QST is technical information rehashed since 1950. It's so old world it gives me the willies. The magazine alone smells like moth balls. "
Only so much has changed since 1950, though. A dipole is a dipole is a dipole, a yagi is a yagi, and SSB is SSB whether it's 1950, 2007, or 2057. The fundamentals never change, and when you start incorporating things like the internet, people start screaming that it's no longer amateur radio. If QST stays within the confines of what most hams consider to be amateur radio, there's not exactly any groundbreaking developments for them to report on each month.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WD8DUP on February 25, 2007
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Although I don't post very often, this particular topic caught my eye.
I actually believe that the HF bands will, commercially, be abandoned for more noise-free and 24/7 reliable means, such as satellite digital comms and SHF point-to-point.
With the HF bands free, a small band of entrepeneurs (like Hams) will become (as they are now) the emergency communications backbone since things like Hurricanes, Tornadoes, severe winter weather, will continue to destroy homes, etc.
Just my .03 worth.
Floyd
DA1VF/WD8DUP
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RE: Begging the question.
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by PLANKEYE on February 25, 2007
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AI2A POSTED THIS:
KF4HR says, "...and with an amateur license becoming easier and easier to obtain...."
Where is the proof that an amateur license is becoming easier and easier to obtain?
With the progress in technology there will also come changes in the test questions to keep pace with important innovations in radio communications. This is not dilution of the license testing.
The FCC continues to keep the radio rules and regulations such that skill is needed to avoid harmful interference. They will continue to keep a high standard in the license testing to uphold that purpose.
This article for the most part is just a tool to be used by all the same old reactionaries to vent and wail and babble their same old gloom and doom and negativity about the future. As all previous predictions about the future prove, such predictions always turn out to be far from the mark. If you self-defeating hams get your jollies out of this opportunity, then have at it, but no one cares except your own kind.
PLANKEYE POSTED THIS:
Sir, I hope I don't sound self defeating. The license is easier to obtain. Believe it or not. I'm not doom and glooming you. It's just the truth.
PLANKEYE
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1YW on February 25, 2007
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"Ever notice how most of the posts on eHam.net remind you of the things you see on the beach at low tide?"
---------------
I have to agree, since asked.
Then again, the topics I respond to are usually heavily peppered by posts from AI2IA.
73 to all,
Chip W1YW
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W4LGH on February 25, 2007
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Have no idea where ham radio will be in 50 years. I do know I won't be around to see it, as well as the rest of the hardcore Amateurs in the hobby. The new breed of hams are not as devoted to the hobby as much as the past generations, and thats very easy to see, and hear on the bands.
So it would be a hard call to say the way things will be in 50 years. I do have to agree with several of the posts that I read, saying we'll have a mass influx of new hams with the new rules, but I think it will die off almost as fast, and we'll be right back where we started.
Have been listening to a bunch of the newbies, the /AG's coming on the air over the past 48 hours. Everyone has to start at the begining, but these are the most ill prepaired group I have ever heard. They come on right in the middle of a QSO, they don't ask if the freq is clear before making a call, its been interesting. Again, I relaize they are new and used to VHF/UHF comms thru repeaters, where everybody hears everyone. So we'll see what happens...
73 de W4LGH - Alan
http://www.w4lgh.com
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9DG on February 25, 2007
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WB2WIK:
"It's still a tinkerer's hobby. When there's no more tinkering left to do, that's when the hobby will have no reason to exist."
Precisely. And what many fail to recognize is that the nature of "tinkering" is, and will always continue changing. This is not new. For example in the very beginning of radio you had to make you own catwisker detectors, some time latter you could by crystal diodes and vacuum tubes. Once these became available very few people made there own any more.
Today we are moving ever closer to not even soldering components to circuit boards on a component level anymore. Instead it is increasingly becoming a tinkering exercise on a board or module level. It is just the way it is, and if it allows me to keep experimenting with things then I'm completely fine with it.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W8KQE on February 25, 2007
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50 years from now, things may not bode well for Amateur Radio if we let the FCC get 'bought and sold', just like the FDA has been, by and large. Who funds the FDA? Who will be funding the FCC? Major conflicts of interest between large private corporations and our government institutions will increasinlgy come into play, I fear.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA8VBX on February 25, 2007
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Wow, with all the naysayers that are posting here about the demise of ham radio, why not just speed things up and shoot your radio's, give up the hobby and move onto something else. If you want to make some money though there are probably a lot of hams that will buy your radio right now.
One thing for sure it will not be like it is now.
Kurt
K8YZK
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W5TD on February 25, 2007
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"Who funds the FDA? Who will be funding the FCC?"
Both are and will continue to be funded by the CFR and the Trilateralist commission. They fund and control every government entity.
73s John W5TD
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NB3O on February 25, 2007
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"Today we are moving ever closer to not even soldering components to circuit boards on a component level anymore."
Very true. Eventually there will be enough of a reduction in price to home-brew the RF/DSP ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit). This will become a valuable part of our tinkering. I have watched it go from a 7 to a 6 figure price point in latter years, mostly because the big guys will allow you to put your experiment on a portion of their cookie sheet (still a house mortgage).
However, there is also a consortium of major ASIC manufacturers who work closely with DARPA to provide reasonably priced prototyping resources for small businesses that win some of the DARPA SBIR's (small business innovative research awards).
Many of the big guys are running silicon-on-silicon processes below 0.2 micron thick, which will even get smaller, lower power, higher frequency, and higher density.
For high performance RF applications, the ones to watch are the guys breadboarding on silicon-safire and gallium-nitride substrates.
It will probably be a while before these processes become as cheap as expresspcb.com breadboarding. And you will not be able to easily "white-wire" around your mistakes. However this will eventually become part of the future of our hobby (if we don't flame-out before then).
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 25, 2007
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"I'd take that farther and say read QEX sometime."
Agree.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 25, 2007
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"Today we are moving ever closer to not even soldering components to circuit boards on a component level anymore."
Absolutely......System on a Chip (SOC) technology is advancing rapidly and accounts for our ability to manufacture cell phones that fit in a shirt pocket.
Take a look at the latest TV tuner designs for HDTV and other consumer products - especially ones that require TV applications in a very compact package. This is the smallest TV tuner on the planet and is about the size of a dime:
http://www.xceive.com/technology_XC3028.htm
Where will this technology be in 50 years? Moore's Law is still applicable, but as lasers and optics will evolve and replace copper wires, the normal constraints on speed will diminish. Performance will increase and size will decrease by several order of magnitude: a radio chassis as we know it will become a thing of the past.
My technology projection for ham radio:
>> Amateur transceivers will likely be the size of a small brick and completely self contained including the power supply. They will controlled with a combination of wireless controllers; one built into a headset with virtual holographic display and voice prompts for controls and/or a desktop unit with a larger holographic display and integrated audio and RF amplifier systems.
>> Amateur communications will evolve from analog to completely digital signal transmission. Present day "data modes" will be obsolete because video and audio will be available over the same digital signal stream - and obsoleting the need for email.
>> Last but not least, the G5RV and automatic antenna tuner will finally become obsolete, replaced with the "Autotune Dipole" and lossless feedline.
......WA1RNE
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RE: Ham Radio Will Be in 50 Years!
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by K3NG on February 25, 2007
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>Fifty years from now amateur radio will still be functioning. However, most of the doomsayers, naysayers, self-hating hams, ham scoffers, BPL supporters, and ARRL bashers will have long since bitten the dust. eHam.net will be written up in the psychopathology textbooks.
We can only hope...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3OX on February 25, 2007
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I like WA1RNE's predictions ;-)
Maybe the superconducting magnetic loop antenna too...
In fact, there was such a thing built in a lab, and showed great efficiency increase over one that wasn't superconducting, and would have been much better if they'd made the matching network superconducting as well ;-)
Dan
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NB3O on February 25, 2007
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One of the most important aspects of the future of our "anachronistic" hobby is to remember "What's new is old and what's old is new". For example, AM-740 (CHWO-AM) is one of the very few (maybe last) AM broadcast stations to use the "Doherty" AM modulation technique (I.R.E., September 1936).
http://beradio.com/transmission/radio_doherty_linear_amplifier/
However, this technical relic has been brought back into the state-of-the-art due to the tenacity of investigative engineers who have made remarkable advances in the wireless 802.11 RF power amplifier ASIC designs (just search "doherty" at ieee.org). Our more savvy "future" experimenters can and will learn much from our history, providing we leave some legacy more useful and positive than some of these internet forums.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KE7HFQ on February 25, 2007
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W4LGH,
"They come on right in the middle of a QSO, they don't ask if the freq is clear before making a call, its been interesting."
Knowing code would have prepared them for this situation? I am assuming you are talking about phone.
They should know to ask if the frequency is in use. That was question G2B12: “What is a considerate way to avoid harmful interference?” Answer: “Ask if the frequency is in use, and say your call sign.”
You must also consider the condition of the band at the time. This is going to happen more often as more people come on board.
It is possible they did ask if the frequency was in use but neither party could hear each other at that time.
73 Mike
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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50 years: Ham radio will go beyond sight and sound to enable smell-o-radio and taste and touch. The electronic wheelchair bound op (the obesity and laziness will result in the atrophy of limbs necessitating robotic control of everything) will twitch his nose to smell the aroma of coffee and chocolate dounts that will emminate from his transceiver. Radio will decade to obsenity and chatroom like behavior (as on the internet) in that sensual vibrations will also be emitted from the radio. Wiggle your ears and get an electronic thrill. Antennaes will protrude from the head of the operator (as in MY FAVORITE MARTIAN). CW will be done by the blinking of the eyes. Computers will be implanted in the brain, and the op will enjoy playing video games whilst chatting on his radidio.
That's a start...
Don
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RE: Ham Radio Will Be in 50 Years!
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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Part two 50 years: Mankind will have to live under the oceans after he has blown all the land to bits and contaminated it to the point of inhabitality. Radio will go back to long wave, and antennaes will float on the surface (no need for towers anymore). Cars will be replaced by submercibles, and mobile radio will also have SONAR cabaility instead of global positioning. Maybe Ringo was not that far off singing about his Yellow Submarine and the Octopuses Garden! CQ CQ glub glub I got a leak in my roof!!!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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>> Last but not least, the G5RV and automatic antenna tuner will finally become obsolete, replaced with the "Autotune Dipole" and lossless feedline.
......WA1RNE <<
No wire at all from XMTR to tower can be done today, by using IR or LASER remote signals from the shack to the top of the tower. It can also be done by very low power RF (like 1 watt) as in an old cordless phone (49MHz). Why aren't hams doing this instead of running long lengths of coax? Two way comm from the shack to the tower top via wireless means! The Transceiver can be computer remote controlled (same way, digital IR or LASER signalling), and be direct coupled to the antenna - NO CABLE problems!!! Maybe Icom will do this with their PCS-5000!!!
Don
PS: Remember whose idea this was, where you heard it first, when this becomes the big deal soon, who first, Yaecomwood? I vote TenTec! And I won't get a cent for the idea!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WR9H on February 25, 2007
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The problem with using lasers for tower control is legion. Simply consider the cost of weather proofing everything!
More seriously, why do we think that we need a "huge" influx of new amateurs? The number of licensed hams has been relatively steady for 30 years even though we went through a technological revolution (computers, cell phones, etc). How is it that we will be happier or better off with more numbers?
Ultimately, amateur radio fills a need for some and has no appeal for others and that's OK!
Herb
WR9H
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 25, 2007
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Nice idea, but most rigs are not designed to stand up to the temperature extremes you would encounter at the top of a tower.
Most of today's HF transceivers are good for -10 to 50C operating temp range. Think about what goes into marine electronics and the temperatures encountered in that environment. Getting an HF rig to survive at 100' on a mountain in Colorado at -40C to 70C is a tall order, certainly at least Mil Spec performance - which would put the cost of the design way out of reach for most amateurs.
The you have to get AC or DC power up there.
Then there's QRO....A no-tune kilowatt amp for HF at 100' would be out of the question.....
....WA1RNE
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RE: Ham Radio Will Be in 50 Years!
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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Part 3 50 years: For electric ""boats and subs"", a STANDARDISED battery pack will make it possible to exchange your vehicles power source quickly when it needs a charge. Just pull into a battery exchange station and do a swapperoo. The Station can recharge the batteries by wind, solor, and other means. The station will also repair dead cells since the charging will be done at the same time the packs are analised for proper function. Likewise the oceanic homes and cities will only use electric power sources. As in the Navy and Coastguard, wireless communications will take on a huge necessity for civillians in a marine envionment. Floating cities, underwater habitats. Wires just get in the way! Wires for power will go through the same conduits that are used for pumping and exhausting air. Maybe this sounds a little fishy, but there is a hell of a lot more water out there than there is land. Maybe you land-lovers hate seaweed and seafood, but perhaps some new nations will form out in the waters that surround us all. Radio is a must for that kind of living!
73, Don
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W1YW on February 25, 2007
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"Then there's QRO....A no-tune kilowatt amp for HF at 100' would be out of the question..... "
....WA1RNE
-----------------------------
Why?
And why do we need to be at 100 feet?
Try the above at 50 feet. Max. No need for anything else.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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<<< WA1RNE
Nice idea, but most rigs are not designed to stand up to the temperature extremes you would encounter at the top of a tower >>>>
Most rigs get mighty hot, especially mobiles. Simple, a fan blowing over the heatsink should do. The transceiver (or even linear amp) can be enclosed into some kind of cooled cabinet, and many towers have POWER for their rotors. If you can run power to a rotor, you can power a rig. It's a good idea to run 120/220VAC to a tower for lighting etc. anyhow. Your objections are minor and easily remedied. I think it would be far better to have a remote rig specially designed for this purpose, but I bet some ham is looking for an old cordless phone, breadboarding some IR remote device, and thinking about setting up such a device with old equiptment. (I am disabled, else I may tinker with the idea). Shoot, why not a simple heat exchanger to air cool the "box"? There usually is a lot more wind blowing around a tower than there is in some really warm ham shacks!!! Coling a box is a lot easier than cooling an attic. All I am saying is that this can easily be done NOW, and not 50 years from now, unless the skeptics keep it from happening. Tom Edison made progress because he did not listen to the negative BS from his opponites.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC7QDO on February 25, 2007
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The ARRL has sold Ham Radio`s sole for members.
I read this statement and the ARRL wanted to keep the 5wpm for extra class. The Fcc after their comment period kicked the proposal back to the ARRL and told them they wanted ARS to have no CW requirement. What that tells me the Ham community at large or at least the most the letters the FCC got wanted to see the code go away. I can understand the agitation but at least get your facts straight.
In 50 years I believe we still will have repeaters and HF to some extent. And who knows we might have sub space or inter dimensional communications.
Personally I don't see to much future with D star. At this point in time it does not have a very good signal to noise ratio. When a analog signal is still usable D star is useless.
The major thing I can see that is positive you are not going to have all those folks that are going to be anti new ham because of the morse code elimination.
But there is that chance it might be down to the grandfathered few that are all that are left anf no new licenses issued and when the last one of the two die that is it.
As time goes by the internet will get boring. I know that is the case with me and I prefer to talk to people on psk with the computer than online. So with that fact alone they will be back.
In 50 years I will be 74 and if I am still alive and still can turn a knob or read the screen to use the radio I will be there with the I remember when you had a radio this big and that technology in them days did not exist.
Happy Dxing to all.
Bruce
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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PS: Since $$$ is no object for the linear class operators, they can use an air conditioned box to cool their mucho $$$ linears and Yaesu FT1000 > on their two-hundred foot towers with Ham IV rotor. They would spend a hell-of-a-lot more to run Heliax, RG213. and rotor cable than a 220VAC 10g line to a tower! Again my point was, NOW rather than fifty years from now! Easily plausable! Icom and TenTec both make PC radioes, and a full spectrum transceiver that has RC cabability would be easy to do NOW if Icom, Yaesu, or Kenwood wanted to. Look what they do with their little HT's! Wireless links between the shack and antenna can go way beyond ham radio in the commercial market, and has with cell phones, they use microwave to go tower to tower. Police, FD, militia, hospitals, and so on can use remote transmitters if they have a large area to communicate in. I think the biggest onjection with hams is getting used to computer keyboard control rather than playing with the knobs and buttones on a box. But this can be done with a box that has lots of knobs and buttones, and no need for a PC, just separate the transmitter/receiver/amplifier that must be located at the antenna, i.e. sort of like a preamp, a control head located in the shack. Inventions start in the shack, and then are sold to the big guys. I wonder if Drake would consider such a rig to get back into the ham market.
Things that may happen in fifty years could have their roots or beginning in the here and NOW! Celery phone began with an idea about thirty years ago.
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 25, 2007
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Why?
And why do we need to be at 100 feet?
Try the above at 50 feet. Max. No need for anything else.
>>> OK, make it 40, 50 or 60 feet.....same thing, the environmental design constraints are the same. I chose 100' because it's a popular tower height.
....WA1RNE
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W7ETA on February 25, 2007
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50 years from now, hams will be playing around with the physics of grand unified theory.
"CQ DX. Checking propagation to the Andromeda galaxy."
73
Bob
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WA1RNE on February 25, 2007
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"If you can run power to a rotor, you can power a rig. It's a good idea to run 120/220VAC to a tower for lighting etc. anyhow. Your objections are minor and easily remedied."
>> I think you are confusing Rotator control power with the motor and brake. Controllers run off 120 or 220 vac, but the motor and brake requires 24 VAC @ ~2-6 amperes.
Even Rotators start to get sluggish at low temps, never mind running a transceiver remotely at negative digits.
Check out the specs for a rotator. Most manuals indicate operation to -30F, with slow or sluggish operation expected at these temps.
As for Tom Edison not listening to the negative BS from his opponites, well unfortunately that's not totally true. If you check the history books, Tom's record wasn't always sparkling when it came to listening. For instance, take the brawls he had with George Westinghouse over DC versus AC power transmission and distribution.
Edison thought DC power was the way of the future and said Westinghouse's AC scheme was too dangerous. Well, Tom was wrong and George's method is still being used today. The reason: Transformers are required to step up/down AC power for transmission over long distances. Transformers don't operate on DC, so Tom's idea was doomed from the start.
Edison's idea wasn't totally wrong, just way before it's time. High voltage transmission via DC was eventually adopted, but not for another 90 years when DC inverter technology caught up with the concept.
Running a fan over the heatsink doesn't help semiconductors in cold temperatures and doesn't take care of condensation when a metal box at -30F starts warming up when the sun comes out.
Consider what NASA engineers and contractors have to go through when they design for the space environment and why these programs cost so darn much. I wasn't slinging negativity toward your idea, just some of the physics and engineering that goes into solving this type of problem.
....WA1RNE
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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<<< Edison thought DC power was the way of the future and said Westinghouse's AC scheme was too dangerous. Well, Tom was wrong and George's method is still being used today. The reason: Transformers are required to step up/down AC power for transmission over long distances. Transformers don't operate on DC, so Tom's idea was doomed from the start. >>>
Funny thing, It was Nicoli Tesla that was the genius/kook behind Westingouse. BUT in a way Tom was right, seems most computerised and modern devices are using low voltage DC power and require a way to convert the 120VAC to let's say 12/5VDC! Tom did a lot of research on batteries, he was not far off after all, it would probably be a good bet that Eveready will be even bigger in fifty years, and the power grid will fall apart. Don't get me wrong, AC has its place, Tesla sure knew his coils! But Solar power is DC, most electronics now-a-days are DC, and batteries are DC, so think about Tom when you use that neat little HT! Furthermore, pulsating DC can also be used with transformers etc!
Well? Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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<<< Running a fan over the heatsink doesn't help semiconductors in cold temperatures and doesn't take care of condensation when a metal box at -30F starts warming up when the sun comes out >>>
Easy fix, use a heater when it's cold! Then a few transmissions, and the heat from the finals will do nicely! Again easily done with currant technology. You'd use IR, low powered RF, or LASER (simular to those in LASER gunsights or pens) to send serial signals to the tower for xceiver remote control, rotor, linear, and climate control. So the tower would only need a power source (120/220VAC 10g line). They do this with X-10 cameras, I was thinking about mounting one of those up on my tower. A simple way to direct couple the transmitter to the antenna! WOW! I sure would like to see TenTec or Drake make such a rig! YaeComWood already has full spectrum HT's, and TenTec has a PC controlled xceiver, with a few mods, this would be a great RC rig (if it has a USB port). I sure would like to see Drake get back into ham radio with such a rig! A mobile rig takes a hell of a lot of heat and cold extreems, and they seem to function OK, and the tower/rotor would work either way, via eight conductor rotor cabling or remote control, same rotor! When the tower is really too cold or too hot, the guys that spend $$$ (sky's the limit) would remotely fire up the heat pump in the ""box"" a top of their 200 foot tower to fix the problemo! Dah! A control head or PC would have the capability to remotely operate the ""box"" with ease! Funny thing, you failed to mention one of the greatest risks, theft! Odds of climbing a two hundred foot tower to get to the box, break into it (when it has motion detection anti-theft), and get away would be much harder than taking from a shack!
Main point, NOW, not fifty years from now - it's very possible, so why wait fifty years.
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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<<< Running a fan over the heatsink doesn't help semiconductors in cold temperatures and doesn't take care of condensation when a metal box at -30F starts warming up when the sun comes out >>>
Easy fix, use a heater when it's cold! Then a few transmissions, and the heat from the finals will do nicely! Again easily done with currant technology. You'd use IR, low powered RF, or LASER (simular to those in LASER gunsights or pens) to send serial signals to the tower for xceiver remote control, rotor, linear, and climate control. So the tower would only need a power source (120/220VAC 10g line). They do this with X-10 cameras, I was thinking about mounting one of those up on my tower. A simple way to direct couple the transmitter to the antenna! WOW! I sure would like to see TenTec or Drake make such a rig! YaeComWood already has full spectrum HT's, and TenTec has a PC controlled xceiver, with a few mods, this would be a great RC rig (if it has a USB port). I sure would like to see Drake get back into ham radio with such a rig! A mobile rig takes a hell of a lot of heat and cold extreems, and they seem to function OK, and the tower/rotor would work either way, via eight conductor rotor cabling or remote control, same rotor! When the tower is really too cold or too hot, the guys that spend $$$ (sky's the limit) would remotely fire up the heat pump in the ""box"" a top of their 200 foot tower to fix the problemo! Dah! A control head or PC would have the capability to remotely operate the ""box"" with ease! Funny thing, you failed to mention one of the greatest risks, theft! Odds of climbing a two hundred foot tower to get to the box, break into it (when it has motion detection anti-theft), and get away would be much harder than taking from a shack!
Main point, NOW, not fifty years from now - it's very possible, so why wait fifty years.
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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A suppose a quick way to sum it up is that in fifty years feedline and tuners will not exhist - obselete! I don't like coax and the matchbox, won't miss it, will be glad to do away with the blasted things! They kind of remind me of having a Heathkit DX-100 in my shack as a paper weight!
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB2WIK on February 25, 2007
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I have the real answer:
In 50 years, an SX-88 will sell for one million dollars on eBay.
No doubt about it.
WB2WIK/6
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WR8D on February 25, 2007
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Alan there's another aspect to them too. Cbers never ask if the freq is in use or even care. They try to conduct several chats right on top of each other. No respect for themselves much less for anyone else or any rules and regs. I suspect some of those you mention to be hearing are from that element. Keep ur power dry! We gonna need it! John WR8D
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB7JK on February 25, 2007
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Is all this supposed to happen after the upcoming nuclear war with China and civil war in the United States?
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on February 25, 2007
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KC7QDO
I think you missed the message here. You picked one item out of years of abuse to the Ham Bands by the ARRL. I`ve been licensed for over 30 years and have seen the ARRL slowly destroy the ham bands so they can get more members. The ARRL has bills to pay and there is always the cost of living going up. They are a business. Non profit or not, business does not belong in Ham Radio. Especially when the FCC throws decisions in the ARRL`s lap. With the ARRL as with any business, Business comes first. You will not make a business decision that will hurt or shut down your business. You want your business to grow. So when I say that the ARRL has sold Ham Radio`s sole for members, what I`m saying is the ARRL through many years, has kept on one path. Keep people coming into the Ham Bands any way possible. Licensing`s gotten much easier than it use to be. When I took my general, AT THE FCC OFFICE, I had to send and receive 13 WPM and of course take the General theory. Taking the exam at the FCC office was a filter in it self.
I suggest you look at the history of the ARRL`s actions before you make another narrow minded comment.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB7JK on February 25, 2007
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In the meantime CW will be used for emergency/tactical comms.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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<<<< WR8D: Alan there's another aspect to them too. Cbers never ask if the freq is in use or even care. They try to conduct several chats right on top of each other. No respect for themselves much less for anyone else or any rules and regs. I suspect some of those you mention to be hearing are from that element. Keep ur power dry! We gonna need it! John WR8D >>>>
2007 is nearly fifty years for CB!
Have you actually listened to the CrazyBand lately? I am not in the big city, so I really cannot say what goes on in Cleveland. I got an old Lafayette rock bound tube rig, (HE20c), off of ebay. That was my very first transceiver back in the 60's, and CB in the suburbs was really pretty kewl back them. We were licensed, had calls, and the protocal was friendly pretty much. Many hams either were also on CB, or came out of it. So this HE20c hears pretty good for an old rig - surprizingly (I think it sat on a shelf, probably, for over thirty years, and it was from a Canadian police station). I also had a Sears Roadtalker, and the Lafayette is better. What I am getting at here, is that lately, if I turn it on - it is pretty much like 10m, DEAD! Even Ch19 is pretty quiet (unlike the 70-90's). I used to hear the SKIPLAND SKIPLAND, the music, the power mics w/roger beeps, the rude cussin' creeps, whistlers, malicious fighting, and even some truckers way back when. But lately, not much of anything on 11m around here. When some of the new guys hear the ranting and slammin about CB, they may not understand that this was how it WAS when Radio Shack was rakin' in the $$$ in its hayday. Maybe there are the bozoes still at it in the big city, but I live near a truck route, and it's dead most times if I turn on the ol' CB. Heck, maybe they all ended up on two meters?
73, Don
PS: I'll never forget my first hamfest when they first had the tech-lite in early '92. (I got my ticket just before, and I was a plus - CW didn't bother me, I liked the idea that I could take the test locally). I saw a CBer trying to buy a two meter mobile, he thought it was a CB. The ham was trying to explain that it was two meters and not a CB, but the guy just did not get it. All he knew was that it looked like a fancy CB to him! Back then, the ham refused to sell it to him! Since then, I wonder how many of those VHF CB's were sold to unlicensed or underlicensed dudes via ebay or flea markets?
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KX8N on February 25, 2007
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"Non profit or not, business does not belong in Ham Radio."
Other than amateurs using the bands themselves for business, business is in every part of amateur radio, and it always has been, with very few exceptions. Radios aren't free, companies are making profits by building them and selling them to us. Build your own? If you build from a kit, someone is making money from selling the kit to you, and unless you build entirely out of a junk box, someone is making money from selling you the parts to build with. Companies and individuals make money from selling mics, keys, power supplies, antennas, etc., etc., etc.
The FCC makes money from selling spectrum. The FCC makes money from issuing licenses. The FCC makes money from processing vanity applications. The ARRL (or some other VEC) makes money from administering the tests to get your license.
Keep going? Some hams are making money from amateur radio, too. There are hams that make money by printing QSL cards, making shirts, making hats, making badges, making wooden cutouts of callsigns, or any other personalized thing you can imagine.
Does the ARRL make money? Sure. The only problem I personally have with that is that they are using it in the wrong places. For our $39, we get a $20 magazine subscription (of which the cost is most likely covered by it's advertisers), and the "opportunity" to buy insurance from the ARRL, as well as being "allowed" to spend money on the outbound QSL service. Instead of wasting money lobbying the FCC about BPL (which is burning itself out anyway due to the fact that nobody NEEDS it), the ARRL could be giving us free insurance, free QSL service, a beefier magazine with free adverts from subscribers, AND they could still afford to lower their membership prices.
But my point is, EVERYBODY is making money off of amateur radio except for most amateurs themselves.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on February 25, 2007
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KC8QFP
I understand. There are allot of people making money from Ham Radio. BUT, they arn`t making decisions like the ARRL does as far as our rules and regs. Many times the FCC asks the ARRL for their opinion on changes to the Amateur service. The FCC has final say. But they listen to the ARRL. Do they ask the guy making the hats or qsl cards? The FCC depends on the ARRL, a Business, to help with decisions that effect all Amateurs. Thats where the problem is. Without the people selling equipment, these days, there would be no Amateur Radio. Some of the Radio Manufactures try to influence what happens to Amateur Radio, from what I`ve heard. I have no Proof of that. If they are doing that, it`s wrong. But I understand why they do it. They have a business to run and they want it to grow.
Ham Radio will never be perfect. There is no such thing as perfect. But where I see problems with it, I will let it be known. I guess I`m tired of the downward cycle but with cycles, everything repeats in time. I`ll just wait till people get so fed up with the CB type Hams that they demand change. The cycle, I hope, will go back up.
Note: I heard a guy on 40 meters today with a echo box.
Please, leave them back on CB.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on February 25, 2007
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My last was for KX8N not KC8QFP. Sorry for the mix-up.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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"Non profit or not, business does not belong in Ham Radio."
There's more $$$ to be made from ""non-profit"", it seems, than from profit type busines. Look at all the $$$ the churches are taking in! And I still say ham radio is another religion.
I think back when most rigs were US made (B4 the 70's). Heathkit, Collins, Hammerlund, Halicrafters, Drake, SBE, Swan, to name a few. Wha happened? What is made in the USA today? Even Motorola and GE was US made back then. I doubt that ham ops were their biggest customers since some of those same manufacturers also had military or govy contracts. Was it Nixon's trip to China that changed all this? World trade, ham's bought Toyata, Honda, Datson, Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood and JRS because they had the bells and whistles. Even PC's were US made at first.
I have some old ham rags from the 70-90's, and there is NO DOUBT that the majority of each mag was advertisements or recruitment. I recently went through a bunch of old mags, I wanted to get rid of them (funny thing they did not sell on Ebay, and they were cheap). I had dozens of QST, and scanned the tech articles that I wanted to save (had I known they would not sell, I would have simply cut out the pages and toss the rest for the recycle bin). I ended up with only a dozen pages of material, and that is generous. Contesting, political commentary, operating technic (SOSDD), most of their rag is a waste of paper. SOSDD ads too. Hams are tired of it, and there is no prestige from being a member of the ARRL, who cares!
The Candy stores are struggling to survive too. Even Radio Shack is getting away from the electronics hobby. Olson Electronics, Lafayette, Allied Radio, and many electronics chains are gone, like the US made rigs. Now the thing is mail order - DIRECT FROM AISA! I bought some stuff from Europe on Ebay, and it seems it gets here faster than the domestic mail??? I see all kinds of junk from China on Ebay, very cheap, and they get very good feedback, especially for FAST shipping!!! The WalMart story; MADE IN CHINA and we Americans just cannot get enough! Thank you Richard Milhouse Nixon for opening the flood gates to Asia!
Where are we headed? Our jobs are going to Aisa! Our gas is coming from Aisa. Our toys come from Aisa. Americans are obsessed with AISA! Hell my brother converted from being a Methodist elder to a Buddist, Dolli Lama and all! Ohm has a whole different meaning! Anticipating the trends, perhaps we all need to learn to speak Chinese or Arabic! I sure like my TenTec, but I wonder when they will move from Tenessee to Hong Kong? Aaaassoooo!
I think some of my Chevy Venture was made in the USA??? Ford/Mazda, Dodge/Mitsubishi, GM/Toyata??? Who knows? Damnit, my next vehicle is gonna be a 60's muscle car that I can work on myself, and my next rig will be a Drake TR4C!
73 Dammit! Don
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AE6CP on February 25, 2007
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How many of you folks have read '200 Meters and Down'? It was written in 1939 and most of the book talks about the evolution of ham radio from about 1910 to 'present day 1939'. The changes that took place during this timeframe were rapid and great, the biggest one being the great 'spark vs CW' debate. In the last two chapters of the book it talks a little more in depth of the 'current 1939' state of ham radio and the biggest issue at the time was the 'CW vs Phone' debate. At the end the author makes his predictions for the next fifty years. He mentioned that SSB might not catch on because the technology is too complicated and expensive. TV was on the horizon and he said it was doubtfull that it would ever replace radio as the main form of entertainment and highly doubtfull that hams would ever have a use for it.
But the most amazing thing I learned is how much the hobby HAS NOT CHANGED in 68 years! OM's are still OM's and now it's the 'code vs no code' and next I'll bet it will be 'analog vs digital' and then 'brain implant radio vs external rig' etc...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB4QNG on February 25, 2007
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To look where ham radio will be I look back as where it has come in the last 30 years since I got my license. My biggest thing is not how much it has changed in those 30 years but how much hasn't change. While my HF rig doesn't have tubes like it did 30 years ago it still puts out 100 watts and I talk on SSB or do a little CW. Just like I did 30 years ago. My two meter rig now has 200+ memories instead of 10 channels but I still monitor the same repeater I did 30 years ago. So if this holds true in the future a lot of what I call minor changes will happen but the basics will still be here.
Terry
WB4QNG
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4APG on February 25, 2007
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I predict that the ham population will decrease.
The tests will have less importance on theory.
CW will be used by less than 10%.
Radio prices will go up.
D-Star will go by the way side.
The ARRL will still be wanting your money.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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Right on Terry, 50 years from now... SOSDD - SNAFU
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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Sometimes I wonder if it really would be better than now if the Japs take over the USA, are they happy over there on Mt Fuji? AAASSSSSOOOOOOOO!
Who knows, maybe the Japanese companies will move from Japan to the USA - ha ha, oh that already has happened, Honda and Toyota are made in the USA!!! What the heck, did it already happen!!!
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K3WVU on February 25, 2007
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It'll still be here. I don't want to venture any guess as to what technological changes will be made, but there are some things that will be the same, such as:
1. There will be those who will be predicting the imminent demise of ham radio, just like there were 50 years ago, and just like there are now.
2. You'll probably be able to get a ticket by sending in a coupon from a cereal box, but there will still be people posting on Eham (or whatever replaces it) without callsigns, and they'll be complaining about how unfair it is that they have to clip the coupon and pay for the postage to send it in, and how it has kept them from getting on HF.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KX8N on February 25, 2007
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"The FCC has final say. But they listen to the ARRL."
Yeah, I see what your saying, and I really wasn't trying to argue with you or anything. I just don't think that the ARRL has as much pull with the FCC as we tend to think, or at least it doesn't appear that way. The ARRL was fighting HARD against BPL (or at least we are led to believe that). However, the only thing that has made BPL slowly dissapear is the fact that there are SO many other reliable, more dependable methods for highspeed internet already in place. The ARRL's "fight" has had little to no impact. Also, if they are telling the truth, the ARRL itself lobbied for the FCC to KEEP a morse code requirement for the Extra class license. Obviously, that didn't work, either (besides the fact that the ITU dealt the death blow to CW requirements, not the FCC).
I actually can't think of much that the ARRL has accomplished as far as what it has persuaded the FCC to do, that actually has gotten done. Even trying to get a 60 meter allocation turned into very little. The ARRL doesn't seem to be very effective in getting the FCC to do anything.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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"The FCC has final say. But they listen to the ARRL."
Consider the administrative and political changes that have happened to the FCC since Billy boy Clinton. Clinton made some big changes in communications - ala ""define is"" and ""don't ask, don't tell""! The lax of enforcement can been seen as evidenced on the itnernet.
IMO: Tricky Dick opened the can of worms with Aisa, and HillBilly Clinton opened the can of worms with telecommunications. Then there was Howard Stern...
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 25, 2007
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"oh that already has happened, Honda and Toyota are made in the USA!!!"
Only a few, a very few. And they are made with inported parts.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KX8N on February 25, 2007
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Also, in answer to the original question, I think that in order to know where ham radio is going in the future, you've got to look back and see where ham radio has been in the past. Take away any pettiness about testing requirements, and look at what changes have actually happened over the past 50 years. We've been given new bands (three full bands and one channelized, which could become a full band in the future), we've gotten new modes, and we've got lots of people to talk to. Bad operating habbits aren't something that have just happened recently - there have been bad operators in the past, too.
I think amateur radio has a bright future once the current rift between operators either heals or dissapears as one generation "leaves" and another one takes their place. There's lots of new, energetic hams with good attitudes who are actually excited about getting their license and are eager to get on the air and have fun. Those are the hams of tomorrow, and that's what amateur radio of tomorrow is going to be like. There's some decent, interesting people out there if you just give them a chance and don't drive them away before they've had a chance to learn.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AI2IA on February 25, 2007
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The future of ham radio is DIGITAL.
The sooner old hams and young hams accept this idea, the better off ham radio will be. Start to move your ham time, experiment time, learning time, equipment purchases, and activities in the direction of digital. Don't wait. Begin now.
Our spectrum space is valuable. Use it so it will continue to be there in the future. Focus your talent on the future.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 25, 2007
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>>> The future of ham radio is DIGITAL. <<<
Is "Digital" still in business? What ever happened to DEC? I had a DEC-Talk once. Maybe they will make a comeback and be there in fifty years??? But I thought Digital Electronic Corp went under a long time ago. Any ham's remember having a Digital dumb terminal? Hi Hi!
The future of ham radio is TELEPATHIC as in ESP.
I will be able to read your thoughts!
Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on February 25, 2007
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Hopefully there will still be lover's of the Morse world despite the dumb dropping of the Element 1 tests
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500,000 Chinese Ham Operators in 2057
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by KQ6XA on February 25, 2007
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KQ6XA wrote:
"Millions of people will die due to lack of food transportation. These problems will start to be solved in year 2058 when a new type of transportable energy source becomes available, but tightly controlled by the Microsoft China Corporate World Government."
W5TD wrote:
"Sorry, but the trilateralists will never let that sort of thing happen."
Hi W5TD,
Like many americans, you are living in the past, and sheltered by a false sense of cultural superiority. Trilateralists and America saw the golden years in the history of the 20th century. In the last part of the 20th century, trilateralists were superseded by multinationalists. In case you missed it, the Hong Kong stock market surpassed the New York Stock Exchange last month. China once embraced communism with ferver, but China learned from the experience and actions of other nations, and like them, has skipped by the democracy thing, going straight to rampant capitalism according to the USA model :)
You better start teaching your kids to speak and read Chinese. I am... China's new domination of the world's energy and technology through economic resources is the nature of the 21st century.
The largest expansion of industrialisation and civilisation the world has ever seen is happening right now in China. China is quietly buying up all the world's oil, and they have the capital to do it, to feed their newfound prosperity. Gasoline is now US$1.25 per gallon in China. It is like america's 1950's good life, with families buying cars and homes for the first time. Multiply that simple equation, times a billion people, and you will soon see the trend. The number of hams in China is also expanding more rapidly than ever before. Considering the huge number of people in China who are familiar with electronics, the ham population has the potential to exceed that of the rest of the world. I predict 500,000 Chinese ham operators in 50 years.
73---Bonnie VR2/KQ6XA
.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KU4UV on February 25, 2007
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I hate to be a downer, but assuming I'm still around in 50 years, I have a feeling ham radio will be a distant memory. All radio communication by then will most likely be via satellite, including cell phones, and it will all be digital. Ham radio will most likely not exist at all, as the frequencies we now use will probably have been swallowed up by other entities by then.
KU4UV
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N0UDR on February 26, 2007
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Bottom line! If we as Amateur operators do not lead no one will follow. I remember being fascinated with radio seeing it for the first time in a store parking lot and the operators talked with me and explained what they were doing. I was much younger then and that was what made me want to become a HAM. Unless we ELMER and get younger folks interested we will succeed in killing our own hobby. Do you want to be a part of a great future then get involved show enthusiasm it is contagious!
73
N0UDR/OX3UR
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N5GLR on February 26, 2007
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Unless we stand our ground ... with-in 5 yrs. HF freqs. will become an extension of the internet for transfering email and other data files. There will be no room for other signals.
If you don't think so, check the ARRL website ... they're at it again.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 26, 2007
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<<<<< Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? Reply
by KU4UV I hate to be a downer, but assuming I'm still around in 50 years, I have a feeling ham radio will be a distant memory. All radio communication by then will most likely be via satellite, including cell phones, and it will all be digital. Ham radio will most likely not exist at all, as the frequencies we now use will probably have been swallowed up by other entities by then.
KU4UV >>>>>
Perhaps we will regress to two tin cans connected by a string. I play drums, hmmmm, drums and smoke signals! I will be a senile delierious old man with dementia or alsheimer's sittting in front of my old rig, turning its knobs and calling CQ CQ from my nursing home wheelchair as I stare out my window wondering why I can't hear anybody (no antenna, no wires, just a radio put there by my daughtor). And that won't take fifty years! Do we really want to live longer and prolong the agony and misery of life, gosh, what are we leaving for the kids? NOW THAT'S A DOWNER! The ARS legacy - remembered for talking on a radio!
73, Don
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RE: 500,000 Chinese Ham Operators in 2057
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by KC8QFP on February 26, 2007
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Learn Chinese, learn KungFu, learn Japanise...
Reminds me of what my wife used to say:
Chinese, Japanise, dirty knees, look at these!
At least they are supposed to RESPECT their elders!
If you can believe what you see on TV grasshopper.
Sayanara! Don
PS: I think that's Japanise for "I'm outta here"!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 26, 2007
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"The future of ham radio is DIGITAL."
Short term, yes. Long term no. The author asked for 50 years out. In 50 years the "digital" fad will be long, long gone. Most people won't even remember the word.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W9WHE-II on February 26, 2007
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"The FCC has final say. But they listen to the ARRL."
NONSENSE. YOUR FELLOW HAMS DISAGREE!
http://www.eham.net/survey/720
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KB1JNN on February 26, 2007
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All new radios will be SDR. Most communication will be some form of digital spread spectrum. Mesh type networks will be the most popular with point to point being considered "quaint". There will be no significant increase percentage wise in the number of Ham's but the total will be more because of growing populations.
The FCC as a stand alone agency will no longer exist. It will be part of the "DGS" Department of Global Security who's major purpose will be control of any alternative thought. This organization will be under control of the Borg AKA Dick Cheney who by then will be mostly machine.
Ham radio exams will be mostly questions based on DSP algorithms and rules and regulations. All experimenting will be software, any new modes will be tightly controlled by the "DGS". Anyone caught using an un-approved mode or frequency will de declared and enemy combatant and be sentenced to life in a labor camp without a trial.
All "old school" radios will be confiscated by the DGS because they will be considered an unacceptable security risk. The only approved radios will be made by Exxon-MicroTel which was formed by the merger of Exxon, Microsoft and Intel. They will only be sold at Wallmart.
Some rogue operators will use clandestine home made stations and CW. These will be hand built using antique salvaged parts. Several of these operators will be caught and executed each year.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? Us in 15?
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by K5HDM on February 26, 2007
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Where will ham be in 50 yrs? Let's focus on where we'll be in 15 yrs...
1. Polar ice caps melt, eats up 1/2 of the planet with water.
2. Whatever President we have angers China and they NUKE us.
3. Canadians go crazy and take over what's left of the USA...
4. People come across some ham equipment and use without a license (OH NO) because they're happy to talk to ANYONE, or see daylight..
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? Us in 15?
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by K5HDM on February 26, 2007
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Where will ham be in 50 yrs? Let's focus on where we'll be in 15 yrs...
1. Polar ice caps melt, eats up 1/2 of the planet with water.
2. Whatever President we have angers China and they NUKE us.
3. Canadians go crazy and take over what's left of the USA...
4. People come across some ham equipment and use without a license (OH NO) because they're happy to talk to ANYONE, or see daylight..
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K5HDM on February 26, 2007
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Where will ham be in 50 yrs? Let's focus on where we'll be in 15 yrs...
1. Polar ice caps melt, eats up 1/2 of the planet with water.
2. Whatever President we have angers China and they NUKE us.
3. Canadians go crazy and take over what's left of the USA...
4. People come across some ham equipment and use without a license (OH NO) because they're happy to talk to ANYONE, or see daylight..
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 26, 2007
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Don't forget the BOMB shelters and the old cold war B movies from the 50's where giant mutated ants (THEM!) eat people up! Or like the movie, "THE DAY AFTER" with all the vintage tube rigs that were used to see if anyone else was out there??? Another funny movie was BLAST FROM THE PAST. I think I watch too much DirecTV!
73, Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 26, 2007
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<<<< Some rogue operators will use clandestine home made stations and CW. These will be hand built using antique salvaged parts. Several of these operators will be caught and executed each year. >>>>
In fifty years... the ARS goes underground! Or was that underwater?
Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WI7B on February 26, 2007
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It will be without most of us.
73,
---* Ken
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N4SL on February 26, 2007
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3. Canadians go crazy and take over what's left of the USA...
Ya, oozing over the border like so much melted cheese!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KG6WLS on February 26, 2007
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"RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years? Reply
by N6HPX on February 25, 2007 Mail this to a friend!
Hopefully there will still be lover's of the Morse world despite the dumb dropping of the Element 1 tests"
Morse code will continue on for those who enjoy the mode, and will continue if we mentor the newcomers. Only time will tell. It's up to you / us. If we want ham radio to stay alive for the next 50 years for our kids and grand-kids to enjoy (as well as the others), then it's in our best interest to keep it alive...instead of complaining and grovelling about change. Morse code is not dead, just the "Element 1". If you have a rig handy...just listen. It was quite busy over the weekend ;-)
73
Mike
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KE4MOB on February 26, 2007
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Doesn't matter.
Earth has a chance of getting smacked in 2027 or 2028 by a rogue metorite. I suspect that if ANYONE survives, they'll spend the last few months of their lives eating bugs and fighting each other over water.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NT4XT on February 26, 2007
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KF4HR- thank you.
Our thoughts shape our world, what a concept.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." A.E.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8VWM on February 26, 2007
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I never eaten bugs but I admit I have used a few of them before.
Perhaps in it's own twisted way, using bugs, instead of eating them, is the subtle key which paves the way of future things to come?
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on February 26, 2007
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Mike I will continue to promote it to those who are willing to learn it, and I hope that 50 years from now there will be Hams who will love it like many before them.
As for the Element 1 I still did not like it being taken away but what else could those who wanted it in place could we do. It was sad for many to see it go.And wished my son or daughter could have passed it but the FCC changed the rules.
As for listening to radio well I wished I could have but was in a place where it would have been very tight. As I was on Okinawa and my only free time was on the Kadena AFB and with the limited time I had I spent most of it towardas family. I did wish to listen but the closes I got was the Japanese Hams that had 2m/70cm in there taxi's. If I had the time it still would have been difficult over the tight security we have here.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by VA3EP on February 27, 2007
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>3. Canadians go crazy and take over what's
> left of the USA...
> Ya, oozing over the border like so much melted cheese!
Sorry, but that would be "Poutine" :-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poutine
Eric
www.va3ep.net
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W9WHE-II on February 27, 2007
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HAM RADIO IS DOOMED.
As soon as the global warming crowd realizes that ham radios consume energy (which is produced by burning fossil fuels) there will be a move to regulate, tax and eliminate ham radio.
Ham radio is doomed, I tell you. Doomed!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on February 27, 2007
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Heck if my kids dont get into radio I will just ask my wife to bury the icom's with me..including the code keyer's and work dx from the grave to real dx'ers..the one's who went before us.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W4VR on February 27, 2007
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A better question would have been "Where will Ham Radio be in 10 years?" In 50 years there won't be any ham radio...and that's a promise!
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W7VI on February 27, 2007
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I agree the world of Amateur Radio is changing I do not know for good or bad. In the last 10 plus years I have seen Ham Radio go down hill. The license is too easy to get. Most of the new hams are plug and play and have little or no idea how and why radio works.
I believe in the next 30 years there will be no amateur radio as we know it today. that is too bad we have let amateur radio go down hill and I believe there is no recovery.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9SD on February 27, 2007
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Ham Radio will be the preeminent communication mode!
Thanks to the no code license and high cell phone costs, everyone will opt for 2m FM for all of their private communication needs.
Every year, thousands of ARES and other public service HAM RADIO operators will receive the personal thanks of the President of the United States, Jenna Bush, for their meritorious conduct in saving people from certain death through public service and expert traffic handling.
MARS will be the backbone of the military communication infrastructure.
Recognizing their superiority in withstanding EMP, Vacuum Tube radios will be the norm.
Collins will begin re-manufacturing the S-Line and the KWM-2A.
Radiograms will be the favorite mode of sending birthday greetings to your grandparents.
Your FCC license will also serve as your organ-donor card.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 27, 2007
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"As soon as the global warming crowd realizes that ham radios consume energy (which is produced by burning fossil fuels) there will be a move to regulate, tax and eliminate ham radio."
But mine isn't using fossil fuels. Electric here is mostly nuclear and hydroelectric. No contribution to "global warming" at all (even if there is such a thing).
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K8YZK on February 27, 2007
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K4JF, you use Nuc power(with the flux cap, as in Back to the Future?), mmhhh got to wonder where they are storing the spent fuel cells, could it be in your back yard..
Kurt
K8YZK
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on February 27, 2007
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Still its too bad they did away with the Element 1 tests it would have been nice to see it around for the next 30 years but heck I won't be around in the next 50 years I might be with King Neptune or with my wife on a real exotic trip not of our choice.
Hopefully DXing will still be the same and hopefully Morse will still be a favorite for those. But cell phones will be replaced by some other mode of communciations,our laptops will be replaced and the new no-codes will be trying to change the license status to some other form of testing.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 27, 2007
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"K4JF, you use Nuc power(with the flux cap, as in Back to the Future?), mmhhh got to wonder where they are storing the spent fuel cells, could it be in your back yard..
Kurt "
++ chuckle ++ Not that kind, Kurt. But most of our energy comes from Oconee Nuclear Station of Duke Energy (which is on Lake Keowee, where my sailboat is usually docked). Of course the boat uses another kind of nuclear... from that big reactor in the sky (solar).
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KG6OMK on February 27, 2007
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Radios will become as easy to use as an electric light bulb. Just turn it on and the rest is fully automated. At the same time radios will become is interesting as a light bulb.
Seriously. I carry a little transmitter around with me full time that has world wide reach and clear audio. All I have to do is point at the name from a list of people I know and I'm connected to that person. I don't even know what frequency it uses. Cell phones "just work".
So what's the point of making ham radios as good as a cell phone? I've already got a cell phone and for 1/10th the price. Why would I care to take a test and spend money on gear that is "almost as easy to use as a cell phone"?
If ham radio is to survive for another 50 years it will have to do things that cell phones and unlicensed (FRS and the like) radios can't do and about the only thing that could be is allow tinkering and experimentation. It can't compete based on quality of service and ease of use. It will have to do something different
I don't see the hobby growing hugely. In the long run it can only appeal to those with the skill and technical background to "tinker" or the desire to learn. That does not describe "the masses"
I think the type of people into ham radio will change. The current generation of hams will fade away as they age and CW skills will become rare but the new people will bring skills in computers and engineering. I actually expect the level of technical knowledge to increase as the practical value of communications becomes less important and ham becomes one of the few areas left open to experimenters and tinkerers.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on February 28, 2007
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Well the last time I checked that a cell phone won't do that a Ham transceiver does is transmit over 5000 miles from sea. As its range will be limited, of course you might be mistaken the irridium phone which is 1.00 per minute and has a hefty price tag. I know of only 2 guys who have one and they spend $800 for the service.
Her on my ship the use of cell phone are used by everyone in the crew but we don't use ATT or Cingular we use local cards but they too have there ranges. Imagine seeing 25 guys walking around in circles trying to find a site. Where my handheld HT can acccess many repeaters and transmit over 25 miles into the same sites.
I travel 24/7 for a living and btw the code will always be around as us die hards won't let it die easily despite the FCC plan.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 28, 2007
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<<<<< So what's the point of making ham radios as good as a cell phone? I've already got a cell phone and for 1/10th the price. Why would I care to take a test and spend money on gear that is "almost as easy to use as a cell phone"? >>>>>
Very good point! We spend a hellofalotta $$$ just to yack on a radio! WHY? That's part of what makes us hams. People probably think that we are crazy, and we are, crazy about the BOX with all the buttons and knobs, and all those other boxes with buttons and knobs. And don't forget all that blasted WIRE, everywhere there are tangled knotted rat's nests of WIRE WIRE WIRE!!! Towers, meekrofones, keys, and speakers all ober the place. Then there are the NOISES - we must like NOISES! Cellery phones aren't as exciting, they just drop out sometimes. We have QRN, QRM, beep beep beep beep beeeeeps, and all those neat digital undescribable noises. Such FUN! If you look a little deeper, you will see little things that have pins sticking out of them, we call them IC's, diodes, resistors, caps, pots, coils, transistors, switches, transformers, PCB's, and a whole 'nother LANGUAGE it seems with all kinds of crazy sounding words.
Another thing that hams like to do is "old stuff", like traffic (whatever that is), nets (not the fishing variety), contests, DX (not XXX), field days, hamfests and hamventions. As of now, you cannot get into a round table of six or more friends on a cellery phone, whereas more can chine right on in with the rest of the gang on the radio.
We like to show off our ""junk""! We have to mess wtth our junk, a computer is not enough, noooooo - we have to interface it to do something MORE MORE MORE! We used to have little radioes BEFORE cellery phones were even thought of. Face it, probably most hams have the cellphone, but that's because WE LIKE OUR TOYS, whether they are old or new! You can buy a kid an expensive toy (like Teddy Ruxpin), or a dollar store toy, they don't care, they just love to play with their toys! Some kids get more fun out of the box the new washing machine came in than the latest big thing from Matell. That's ham radio, it's simply unexplanable why we do what we do?????
Have fun! Don
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KC8QFP on February 28, 2007
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If ham radio went underground, and became illegal, I doubt it would kill ham radio! Ham ops are obsessed, and they love a challenge! We'd love it all the more! So I doubt that ham radio will go away in the next fifty years, it will change, but not go away.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KF4HR on February 28, 2007
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As this thread fades into eham.com history, I'd like to thank those that created the 200+ postings. As interesting as the postings were, I was even more interested in the "trend" of how the postings leaned; be it positive or negative. This says a lot in itself. I was hoping to see a mixture of postings from the newly licensed and/or younger amateurs, as well as us older folk, although it seems most postings were from those that have been in the hobby awhile. In any case, 200+ postings certainly don't represent the ~700,000 U.S. amateurs, but it was an interesting small cross sectional group response.
If you throw out the postings of those that wandered off subject, it was impossible to ignore the many postings which took a negative view toward the future of our hobby. So much so, it made the positive postings stand out. (Polyanna'istic as they may seem to one respondent. hi) Hopefully all the negative postings didn't run the newly licensed off.
As for the negative types and naysayers. Say what you will about this hobby (and it is just a hobby), but I serious doubt if any one of you are willing to turn in your FCC license, sell your gear, and move on. Although it might be better for the hobby overall if some did.
Changes will continue to happen folks. That's just life. Try to keep a positive attitude. It will go a long way. 73
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W9WHE-II on February 28, 2007
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"Electric here is mostly nuclear...."
My god!
You are contributing to nuclear waste? Why, that is even WORSE then global warming!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on February 28, 2007
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""Electric here is mostly nuclear...."
My god!
You are contributing to nuclear waste? Why, that is even WORSE then global warming! "
Not. There is actually very little waste, and the only reason there is any is that breeder reactors aren't permitted.
The nuclear waste problem is political, not technological.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N4XYC on February 28, 2007
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Our nation does not have 50 years left. Ive already had a talk with my children about what they and their children will face. I have advised them to live in a rural area and be completely self reliant. Read Patrick Buchanan's “Death Of West”
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4RWW on March 1, 2007
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Hopefully not wandering-off-topic, giving a negative view or a dire prediction but my sincere opinion is in 50 years, due to the exponential increase in technological change, geopolitical instability and greed, there will be no ham radio. Survival issues of greater proportion will replace our innate rights to freedom, privacy and mundane hobby type activities.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6KYS on March 1, 2007
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K8YZK wrote.....
>N6KYS do you fit what you describe? Lets see I am 55yrs old, I run marathons, I shower daily if not more, and brush my teeth, would say I comb my hair, but I shave my head. I am a college grad, retired military, and work full time as a dispatcher for local police/fire/rescue.
Now you might think I am a exception to your entry but I find it to be more the norm, then your entry.
Fifty years from now, to far for me to see ahead even if I am hear. A lot have changed since I was first licensed and it will change a lot faster.
73
Kurt
K8YZK<
K8YZK,
Thank you .....you made my case (your spelling, grammar, and sentence structure). Did they have dictionaries at your college?
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB6MMJ on March 1, 2007
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Geeeeeze! Some of these comments lead to the end of the world. Lets just all check out now and get it over with! J/K
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on March 2, 2007
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Can your cell phone locate a signal in the middle of the ocean like my HF rig...just the good points of Cells vs HF Ham. In fact the morse that so many wanted to eliminated has better signals even in the persian gulf vs the cellphones.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KG4RUL on March 2, 2007
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"So when I say that the ARRL has sold Ham Radio`s sole for members..."
Now that really sounds fishy!
Dennis KG4RUL
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by DUBCROSS on March 2, 2007
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In 50 years ham radio will be where Cb radio is going now. Although many will test and obtain licenses many more will broadcast illegally. There will be so many people on the frequencies that it will be a non-stop pile up and only the biggest stations will get out at all. 10,000 watts will become commonplace as technology improves the size and cost of components.
Interplanetary communications with space stations will also be commonplace but will take place of frequencies that are bought and sold through the international marketplace.
My predictions, anyway..........
73's
Dub
KE5LYR
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RE: Begging the question.
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by PLANKEYE on March 2, 2007
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AI2A POSTED THIS:
KF4HR says, "...and with an amateur license becoming easier and easier to obtain...."
Where is the proof that an amateur license is becoming easier and easier to obtain?
With the progress in technology there will also come changes in the test questions to keep pace with important innovations in radio communications. This is not dilution of the license testing.
The FCC continues to keep the radio rules and regulations such that skill is needed to avoid harmful interference. They will continue to keep a high standard in the license testing to uphold that purpose.
This article for the most part is just a tool to be used by all the same old reactionaries to vent and wail and babble their same old gloom and doom and negativity about the future. As all previous predictions about the future prove, such predictions always turn out to be far from the mark. If you self-defeating hams get your jollies out of this opportunity, then have at it, but no one cares except your own kind.
PLANKEYE POSTED THIS:
Sir, I hope I don't sound self defeating. The license is easier to obtain. Believe it or not. I'm not doom and glooming you. It's just the truth.
PLANKEYE
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RE: Begging the question.
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by W4SK on March 2, 2007
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You guys think Ham Radio will last another 50 years, huh?
Take a look at the NEW ham radio. Take a look at the comments in the eHam article, under "News", called "Morse Code Still Has its Place".
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RE: Begging the question.
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by KG6WLS on March 2, 2007
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**RE: Begging the question. Reply
by W4SK on March 2, 2007 Mail this to a friend!
You guys think Ham Radio will last another 50 years, huh?
Take a look at the NEW ham radio. Take a look at the comments in the eHam article, under "News", called "Morse Code Still Has its Place".**
I agree. It's starting to get too personal.
************************************************
Hey, Larry!
How far are you from your QTH and ur rigs now?
73
Mike
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RE: Begging the question.
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by N6HPX on March 2, 2007
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As for proof the licensing is getting easier. Its alot easier than 20 years ago. We had hams who had to pass the 20 wpm code tests for the Extra class, and to get there had to go through 5 exams to do so.
Unfortunately we don't have any Hams who wanted to pass the code exams and make the extra effort. They want something for free.
-----------------------------------------------------
Hey mike were on our way to HL0M and be there maybe tomorrow but then again thats relative...i still can't operate HF. Especially from the ship. As we carry classified cargo<just look up Kiska>...
73's from Larry, n6hpx/mm
south japan seas with RGN BG
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Comments and questions
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by KB3BYW on March 3, 2007
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- First the majority of you are right most of the tech hams will upgrade (I being one of them). There maybe a very slight increase for new hams because of the No-Code. The "CBers" scream and yell at each other locally, when there is "skip" there is too much noise to contact another station to scream and yell at anyway. So if these CBer's wanted to scream and yell locally they could have gotten a old tech license and done it, I have never heard any CB antics on the local repeaters. The HF band have little to worry about.
-When it comes to home-brewing I think it is an awesome aspect of radio, and wish I had the time to do some myself, but what is the point today other than antennas. anything you could every want is manufactured for ham radio. I'm only 24 years old so if I'm wrong please tell me, and yes I know an 84 year old HAM is much smarter than a 24 year old HAM so I'm sure I'm worng. But back in the 60's and 70's there were very few antenna turners manufactures selling tuners compared to today. I could understand build your own tuner back then but now its all in front of you to buy.
-I agree with the HAMS who think the FCC will sell a large amount of the HAM bands, remember money talks.
-I agree with N4XYC who must be a 110 year old HAM, what Patrick Buchanan has to say is good stuff. I didn't read the book but I have listen to many of his interviews and I agree with most of what he has to say. This country is in some major trouble we all know it is but we just sit there and watch it implode.
Here is a little quote of soon to be.
Lenin on "How to attack the west" - "Corrupt the young, get them away from religion. Get them interested in sex. Make them superficial, destroy their ruggedness.Get control of all means of publicity and thereby: Get the peoples' mind off their government by focusing their attention on athletics, sexy books and plays, and other trivialities. Divide the people into hostile groups by constantly harping on controversial matters of no importance. Destroy the peoples faith in their natural leaders by holding up the latter to ridicule, contempt and obloquy. Always preach true democracy but seize power as fast and as ruthlessly as possible. Encourage government extravagance, destroy its credit, produce fear with rising prices, inflation and general discontent. Foment unnecessary strikes in vital industries, encourage civil disorders and foster a soft and lenient attitude on the part of government towards such disorders. By specious argument cause the breakdown of the old moral virtues: honesty, sobriety, continence, faith in the pledged word, ruggedness. Cause the registration of all firearms on some pretext, with the view that confiscating them would leave the population defenseless." Vladimir Ilich Lenin 1921
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K8YZK on March 3, 2007
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Wow N6KYS, that is deep what you wrote back to me. I see from your QRZ profile, you are a ring knocker, now I understand your original comment, better then the rest.
Yes we had WEBSTER's.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N5UV on March 3, 2007
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Where will ham radio be 50 years from now? Well, it won't matter for most of you folks griping about our "dumbed-down" pool of operators that will be left by then....most all of you will be dead!
So, enough with the bitching and moaning...there's HF work to be done TODAY, don't worry about 50 years from now...worry about the hear-and-now!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N6HPX on March 4, 2007
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N5UV: I for one am thinking more in step of my 2 kids future's on this or my grandchildren who I hope will still see the love I have for the hobby then, including the CW. This might be bitching to you but its my prayers towards my kids and grandchildren.
I for one pray that the CW will still be there 50 plus years from now, despite the crazy decision to eliminate the Element 1. I also hope that digital,ssb or some other mode's will still be apart of our kids future. If thats bitching then so be it.
As you said I won't be around to see it but my love for my kids and grandkids will still be in there hearts and I hope they see the world of Ham radio as I did.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KK7WN on March 4, 2007
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The headstone reads " Ham Radio RIP"
Nothing lasts forever and Ham radio as a "unique" form of communication has about run its course. Too much competition from other low cost forms of communication and technically becomming too complex and costly for most people to deal with. There will probobly be antique radio hobbyists, just as there are those who collect old cars. But the the vast majority of folks will probably have gone on to other pursuits.Just look at SWL listening. Nothing much to listen to anymore as most foreign broadcasters have left short wave for the interenet.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by ICR71A on March 4, 2007
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At the geometric rate that technology grows, it is an impossibility to forsee where anything will be in 20 years, no less 50. Here are a few things that I think that we will see over the next 10 years (much more realistic):
1. The ranks of ARS will swell over the next two years given the elimination of the code requirement. This includes upgrades and new operators. Bands will become more crowded as many of these new ops will primarily run is some sort of phone (consuming wider bandwidth) or software-defined modes of operation.
2. This influx of operators will spur the production of new equipment parts at all parts of the consumer price spectrum and give a false sense of security to businesses retailing such goods. Products will experience a wider availability, greater quantities, and more diversity.
3. The price of older and "classic" equipment (boatanchors) will experience a sharp rise and demand for almost everything. Many "treasures" now sitting dormant will re-enter the consumer market due to the premium prices they will command.
4. A burgeoning market for better ham software will create a new class of software products with improved features and advanced GUI's, and reciprocally will influence the design of the next generation of transceivers and receivers; Digital modes and processing will also create a new aftermarket of pre-made mod boards and external devices to take advantage of DSP, xmit bandwidth control, and Mondiale transmissions for older solid state rigs.
5. Understanding that interest in communications has been a fad-driven, cyclic affair, at about the 5 year mark we shall see a gradually increasing number of the completely new (no license whatsoever prior to now) hams drop out of the hobby as general interest wanes. Over the course of the following 5 years, the used market will be flooded with gear acquired during the previous 5 year period. Prices will drop to obscenely low levels for a lot of used equipment, and the older classic gear will re-enter the market at much reduced prices.
6. ITU policy determinations will have made a number of changes in frequency allocations, and caused profound regulatory change in end consumer manipulation of transmitter circuitry as well as licensing parameters; in many areas of the world, including the US there will be only one class of license.
7. eSSB will become a much more common mode of operation, with an increasing number of transmitters offering variable bandwidth control to accomodate it, and receivers ready to process it.
8. CW will continue to enjoy a following, and defeatist methods that teach code at less than 15 wpm will be consigned to the dustbin. A substantial portion of the CW QSO's heard will be the result of computer interfaces at the send and decode level.
9. Band plans will change to take into account the increased use of digital modes, and allocations will allow wider bandwidth to accommodate faster data transfer and correction speeds. CW only segments will shrink in size.
10. Even though the real old old timers will be gone, there will still be a strong contingent of those experienced and helpful, as well as a healthy contingent of whiners, new OF's, and doomcriers. The good old days will live on...
73 de Oscar Foxtrot, A1OF
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB5YDK on March 4, 2007
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AB2MH had an interesting comment above regarding the effect that Homeowner's Associations, with their restrictive antenna covenants, would have on the future of Amateur Radio.
Just about every subdivision constructed around my home over the past twenty years has included strong outdoor antenna restrictions within its covenant wording. My current subdivision doesn't even permit outside TV antennas (although small Ku-band satellite dishes are ok if they aren't easily visible from the front of the house).
So, in fifty years (assuming that the HOA covenants don't change), you might need to buy into a 70 year-old neighborhood (20 + 50 = 70 years)if you want to string up an HF aerial around here!
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K9GLN on March 4, 2007
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I'll be long dead and gone but any remnant of Ham radio will be in some history channel episode. I think the last chapter will be when the inter-galactic truck drivers took it over for meteor and smoky checks. Rather than giving out Ham licenses inside cereal boxes, ham licenses are now un-needed because the World Communications Commission (WCC) gave up on the program...reminds me of what????
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 5, 2007
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"CW only segments will shrink in size."
How do you shrink from zero?
There are no "CW only" segments.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB8XA on March 5, 2007
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""CW only segments will shrink in size."
How do you shrink from zero?
There are no "CW only" segments."
The CW/data sub-bands are what I refer to now as the "instant/text messaging" sub-bands.
With a generation coming into ham radio, who text message/email on their cell phones as much or more than they use voice on them, I'm concerned the reduction of that segment in 80m is going to result in overcrowding if these folks gravitate to the keyboarding data modes, rather than phone, as apparently expected.
It seems to me having CW/data comprise roughly 40% of the total 80m band (through 3.700 MHz), as it does on other bands, might be a better plan for the future, even if that cuts the Extra and Advanced phone segments to 50 kHz each. But I could be wrong.
Hopefully, the CW/data segments on other bands won't shrink to match 80m percentage-wise.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by AB3CX on March 5, 2007
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The manufacturers will probably build in keyboard based CW and CW decoders, with small screens in the rigs displaying the decoded CW. People will tend to learn CW on the air more and more, with the rig prompting them when needed. The rig will have an off the air CW learning program built in, so the new ham can start out on phone and move over to CW more easily. Digital modes will definitely see increased use as the computer oriented generation kicks in and the dinosaur generations pass on.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 5, 2007
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"Hopefully, the CW/data segments on other bands won't shrink to match 80m percentage-wise. "
Agree. But I have my doubts..... I think there will be more shrinking.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by WB5YDK on March 5, 2007
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With the total demise of CW, future "Silent Keys" will be referred to as "Silent Keyboards".
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 6, 2007
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"GONE."
Not likely. But just as today it is VERY different from 1957, it will be very different from today.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by W9WHE-II on March 6, 2007
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CB, Ham Radio & GMRS will be merged into one, no-test service.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N4DSP on March 6, 2007
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There will be no ham radio. Thing of the past.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 6, 2007
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There will be new modes and new methods. But anything on Earth will NOT be considered DX. You will have to work at least another planet for the QSO to count for DXCC. Different solar systems for multipliers in contests.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by NI0C on March 7, 2007
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Interesting thoughts in that last post by K4JF. Maybe people will be chasing "grid cubes," instead of grid squares!
73,
Chuck NI0C
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 7, 2007
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How many DXCC "entities" will there be on Mars?
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N3NL on March 8, 2007
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I suspect that there will be people who are experimenting with technology and communications. If there are any people in space colonies, they will experiment with components and circuits using the natural vacuum of space. Others will be experimenting with unusual modes and options that may be available in that future period such as neutrino streams for direct transmission "line of sight" through the Earth. There may even be quantum-mechanical modes allowing rapid long distance communication with non-human species.
The basic spirit of ham radio will continue despite changes in political systems and the rise and fall of various dictatorships. Ham radio emerged in the Soviet Union and elsewhere such as China because it is useful to have experimenters and inventors working on new technologies.
However, not all of the future will be fun and games for ham radio, but it will keep reappearing because of its basic value (the same will apply to other technology experimenters and inventors such as those building sport space vehicles).
Some of the future ideologies will hate new technology and the hams may be part of revolutions against such regimes. Hams will keep rising again and learning how to use "useless" communication frequencies, modes, or pathways (subspace regions?) Hams may also have a role in possible future competition with artificial intelligence entities in future societies.
I think that the future will be interesting but not necessarily pleasant. So fire up your cat brains floating in nutrient and work some DX.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KI4IXU on March 9, 2007
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Now, I may not be an old ham, being 17, but I don't think ham will be around, unless we decide to evolve with current technologies. To me, ARS seems like it has been stagnant for decades, the only real innovation coming in the digital modes, which are not widely used. From what I see in school, most kids want a quick, cheap way communicate with their friends across campus. I assume that the "real" world wants the same. Cell phones are the cheapest and most inconspicuous way to do this, hence their popularity. The way I see it, ham has two choices. Adapt and thrive (or at least survive), or die. Home brew could help with this, if done the right way. Many complain that electronics are just too hard to learn, and are just going to get more complicated. Well, along with that complicated architecture, comes power. Microcontrollers will become the next home brew must have, seeing as how they are cheap, easy to work with, and easily configured.
Now for the on-topic discussion of predictions:
1st scenario (least likely):
Ham is dead. The. End. The fundamentalist old-farts signed the hobby's death warrant, predicting doom and gloom and not changing anything. To me, and other kids like me, you fundamentalists sound exactly like the Red Zealot from Red vs. Blue: "If the flag (ARS) is gone, who will lead us? Who will inspire us with their shiny pole? Who will flag directions to us in battle? We are lost, and the world as we knew it is gone forever from our eyes, only to live in our memories as the days of salad and glory! Truly these are the end of times! Repent! Repent!" and we basically leave you guys alone to rot in your own antiquated spark-gap radios, closing the chapter of ham radio for a well deserved rest.
2nd scenario:
Ham has adapted and has evolved itself into an easy way of local communication, and has survived and maybe even thrived by giving the younger generation an easier, cheaper way of broadcasting their ideas and talking with their friends. Heck, an advertising campaign to raise awareness would easily bring in a few thousand members.
Maybe I came across poorly, confused some people and angered some others.Maybe I'll get flamed for some of this, but these are my predictions and ideas, and I'm not taking it back.
--Cullen Bass, KI4IXU
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 10, 2007
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Cullen, your ideas are interesting, and I surely respect them. But I do have to take issue with one of your basic premises. Ham radio is NOT, and never has been, about "clear local communications". If that is all there was, I wouldn't be hamming, as I always have my little celery phone with me.
Ham radio is completely different, and if we look at it in competition with a utility, then it will always lose. But it's not. Ham radio is about long distance. It is about adventure (which you simply can't do on that little phone). It is about experimenting with electronics, modifying, and trying new things.
It is about direct, one-on-one contact with that stranger halfway around the world with whom you share an interest in electronics for its own sake, and whom you're going to turn into a friend. That's right, a new friend, across cultures, across languages, because of a spark of common interest.
It's about talking directly to people, and finding out how things REALLY are "over there", in spite of the bull the news media feed us.
It's about developing new things. Remember, hams were the first to have computers in their homes, long before Steve Jobs redesigned them and made them available to most people. Remember that cell phones were developed from principles and techniques worked out by hams, who were just having fun trying new things. Who knows what wonderful new things somebody might come up with, if they have a place to dream, to experiment, to try and fail without commercial pressure? THAT is what it is about.
Ham radio has a bright future if people your age will open themselves up to the experimental, the adventure, side of ham radio. It's NOT a replacement for a utility. Never has been - phones have been around a long time and they have never threatened ham radio. Why should they now? That's right, they shouldn't, and don't.
YOU are the future of ham radio - IF you will get away from the "just talk" idea and look upon it as an adventure. Your friends who say electronics is too difficult for them are really saying they are not interested in that aspect. Fine, no problem. Then perhaps another avocation is more suited. But if you DO like electronics, then ham radio is the place to be.
IF we get away from the inane notion that ham radio is a utility, that it in any way competes with cellphones and/or the internet, if we can get the adventure back on the front burner, then ham radio has a bright future.
Ham radio is not a utility. It is an adventure. iT's not about "just talking", never has been. It is about expanding our horizons, about broadening our view of the world.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N1TI on March 10, 2007
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In 50 years you will be reading a 25 year old obit about the death of ham radio as we knew it. All amateur activity will occur via a very thin slice of satellite bandwidth over very efficient digital compression technologies. Terrestial cellular now obsolete also given way to more efficient and global coverage of digital satellite comms. All spectrum is now held by the government in commercial auction queues. Digital modulation occupies 99% of the available spectrum. XM and Sirrius survives merger and develope video transmission technology for mobile video.
Copper wiring manufacturers are nearing end of life. New medical technology brings Carl Sagan back to life so that he can say "told ya". Certificates hanging on the shack wall will boast "Worked All Lunar Seas" awards on 1.6 Terahertz portable.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N1TI on March 10, 2007
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Of course the other technological extreme is the elimination of the "radio" social interface all-together. By then, neural implants will allow you to be virtually connected to others thoughts. No need to PTT, hammar the J38 or waste time typing on your PSK65535 console....
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by N9DG on March 10, 2007
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K4JF:
"Ham radio is completely different, and if we look at it in competition with a utility, then it will always lose. But it's not. Ham radio is about long distance. It is about adventure (which you simply can't do on that little phone). It is about experimenting with electronics, modifying, and trying new things."
Absolutely correct and 100% on the mark.
K4JF:
"It is about direct, one-on-one contact with that stranger halfway around the world with whom you share an interest in electronics for its own sake, and whom you're going to turn into a friend. That's right, a new friend, across cultures, across languages, because of a spark of common interest."
I agree mostly but with a key modifier because the Internet can achieve "one on one" contact with strangers too. The key differentiation with ham radio is that you are predominantly using equipment that is wholly contained within your own property. Same for the station on other side.
Obviously repeaters and IRLP/Echolink do use intermediary equipment and infrastructure to do what they do. But then they tend toward the "clear communications" end of the spectrum. As such I don't see them ever supplanting direct 'radio to radio' ham radio operating. Sure it can be used in a utilitarian way in some circles, but by no means will replace the 100% direct RF paths for a majority of ham radio operating.
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 10, 2007
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"I agree mostly but with a key modifier because the Internet can achieve "one on one" contact with strangers too."
I agree but with a modifier. Those "strangers" may or may not have the common interest factor. Also they are not dealing with a structured, friendy, open medium like ham radio. I have done both, but the internet part quickly got boring. Ham radio does not.
It is interesting to see internet-savvy types go "wow!" when they see my PSK31 operating, and discover that there is no internet, no broadband, no phone line. Direct computer-to-computer through that radio!
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RE: Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by K4JF on March 10, 2007
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"Digital modulation occupies 99% of the available spectrum. "
Nah. In 50 years, "digital" will be as obsolete as spark is now. Accelerating technology will be way, way past digital.
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by KA8N on March 11, 2007
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Why the hell don't we just let people get their licenses from 3 proofs of puchase from cereal boxes!
It all boils down to the quality and the quantity of the operators. The HF band in international, not a local 2 meter Jerry Springer repeater. Now, the entire world can talk to the new No-Code Generals & Extras.
There will be more deaths from hams installing antennas near power lines, more hams flying themselves by playing around with the internal boards on radio gear, less activity on repeaters, and more on HF.
Emergency communications are important, but can not be substituted for electronic theory, RF safety & circuit components.
Welcome the birth of the Codeless licenses...No lids, kids, or space cadets!!!
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
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by G8UBJ on April 2, 2007
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Where Will Ham Radio Be in 50 Years?
Take a step back, that’s better… now a little more and you can start to see the whole picture (Well most of your town).
The future will be very unlike anything we can imagine, but maybe we can learn from history. Talk to some of the earliest hams and they will tell you that nothing and everything has changed.
A better way to look at this is by scenarios, here are three I thought up –
1 – Decline and fall
Slowly the ham population has declined. New equipment does more and more but it just doesn’t capture the imagination or interest of youngsters. The world population of hams is a quarter of what it was 50 years ago. Business is putting a lot of pressure on governments to release more frequencies; just a few more years and it will all be over.
2 – Same Old
Steady as she goes, the appearance of change is an illusion. Basically hams around the world tough it out through the good and lean years. The ham population has grown but so has the world population. You look back and realise its been a great hobby but its just keeping pace with technology, not leading it.
3 – Return of the Golden age
With the advent of digital communications and wireless internet everyone is communicated out. Governments and commercial business have no interest in the HF bands as they are just not cost effective and people need reliable communication. The wheel has gone full circle, there are lots of hams around the world and it’s a great hobby pulling in people who have had enough instant communication and want a challenge… hams now have nearly all of the HF bands.
- So in 50 years you’re older & the great grand children come visit now and then. They live in a networked world where virtual reality merges with reality… Fire up that ancient FT-2000 and tune across 20m, what do they hear….
What do you want the future to be like?
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