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NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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ap.google.com
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January 5, 2008
Website:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hwOy6L3VDvW3rVBHNad3s6BsR0SwD8TVAGRG0
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NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by AC5E on January 5, 2008
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Yea, indeed. However, the first high latitude reversed polarity spot is a only a precursor, not the official start of Cycle 24.
We do not have a lot of history to consult but it appears the first sunspot of the new cycle occurs 10 to 20 months before the official start of the new cycle. Until then, we will see equatorial spots from Cycle 23, as well as high latitude spots from Cycle 24.
But get your antenna work done, because better propagation is coming. But it won't be here by next week.
73 Pete Allen AC5E
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God Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle.
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by AI2IA on January 5, 2008
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"Last April an international panel of solar experts forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus or minus six months. The panel was split between those predicting a strong or weak cycle."
Experts are folks who know more and more about less and less.
When God confirms the start of a new sunspot cycle, then for sure we will see the improvement.
Until then we must wait.
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RE: God Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle.
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by N4CQR on January 5, 2008
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Ray, I am getting concerned. You have made 3 posts recently. I have agreed with all three.
Have a nice weekend, all
Craig N4CQR
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RE: God Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle.
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by AG4RQ on January 5, 2008
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I subscribe to Spaceweather.com. I received this e-mail this morning:
=======================================================
Space Weather News for Jan. 4, 2008
http://spaceweather.com
Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today. This marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the first step toward a new solar maximum. Intense solar activity won't begin right away. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max (expected in 2011 or 2012). It's a slow journey, but we're on our way!
Visit http://spaceweather.com for pictures of the new sunspot and updates.
You are subscribed to the Space Weather mailing list, a free service of Spaceweather.com. To unsubscribe click here: http://www.spaceweather2.com/u?id=481508Y&n=T&l=spaceweather
or send a blank email to leave-spaceweather-481508Y@www.spaceweather2.com
=======================================================
If NOAA and Spaceweather says Cycle 24 officially began, I beleive them.
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RE: God Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle.
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by AC5E on January 5, 2008
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There is a LOT more Cycle 23 activity at the moment than Cycle 24 activity. There is rapidly growing Cycle 23 equatorial activity; the Sun's magnetic dipole is far out of balance, the coronal holes are working overtime, and so on.
There are quite a few things that will have to happen before the official start of Cycle 24, and we are not there yet. If history is any indicator, the official start will be somewhere between next October and July of 2009. And what we find when Cycle 24 reaches its maxima is another matter.
Most of those predicting record or near record solar activity for Cycle 24 have moderated their predictions. If we are fortunate, Cycle 24 will be much like 23. And if we are not a maximum SSN of 40 for Cycle 24 is well within the range of possibility. NASA says very low for sure for Cycle 25, but we shall just have to wait and see.
73 Pete Allen AC5E
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by AG4RQ on January 5, 2008
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AC5E:
Pete,
I didn't know that the predictions for cycle 24 have been moderated. I was looking forward to something in intensity between cycle 19 and cycle 21 for cycle 24.
Can you post URLs to the articles that you've read about the subject. I'd like to read them also. I want to learn as much about cycle 24 as I can.
73 de Mark
AG4RQ
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by N5XM on January 5, 2008
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As a very active op, I've had the distinct feeling that we were moving in a positive way towards the new cycle. Things have been boiling just a little bit, and while propagation has been up and down, you can feeling that things have been improving. This is just a feeling, mind you, but something I've felt strongly about. It sure is nice to think that things will continue to go up for a while!
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NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by VK4TJF on January 5, 2008
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well lets see, i believe with the recent sun spot activity being so close to march 2008 that it is a distinct possibility that we are in the begining of soloar cycle 24. however i will know for sure when i see 180 days of sun spots and no zero or close to zero sunspot days. it's the type of thing that you can forecast but only know for certain until after the fact. kinda like well weather.
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NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by VK4DGG on January 5, 2008
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Halleluyah!!! this will probably save us from global warming. Sunspots are COOLER areas on the sun, the more sunspots the less solar output, the less solar output the less global warming. WE ARE SAVED!!!!!
73's
Mark
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by AC5E on January 5, 2008
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For one recent link to Cycle 24 predictions try....
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html.
For more,Google David Archibald's "Climate Outlook to 2030."
There is also a lot of reading on nzclimatescience.net; icecap.us; and climatepolice.com.
But before you try any of these links go to junskcience.com and read up on junk science. Because most of the alleged science you read about is about as scientific as phrenology or palmistry. After you pass the junk science test, scroll on down and you will find quite a bit about the linked subjects of solar activity and climate change.
73 Pete Allen AC5E
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RE: God Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle.
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by K6TR on January 5, 2008
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Peter Allen AC5E writes:
Most of those predicting record or near record solar activity for Cycle 24 have moderated their predictions.
Really ? To my knowledge only one the NASA Panel member has published a revision to his original report. Early in December Dr David Hathaway revised downward his estimate for his reported based on Geomagnetic Precursor measurements from an estimated peak SSN of 160 to a revised figure of 150. In a conversation I had with another panel member at the American Geophysical Union convention in San Francisco last month Dr Svalgaard said recent solar events had little influence on his estimate that the next Solar Peak would occur at a SSN of 70. I know of no other member(s) of the NASA Panel that are talking to the public about their estimates. I would really like to know if you have information from any other panel members.
Here is a link to a webpage that contains papers submitted to the NASA Panel for consideration.
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Something to keeping in mind regard Cycle overlap time is the last 5 previous minima have all occurred at above normal values. That is between 10-12. The average minimum for all recorded Sunspot Cycles is 6. The SSN for Cycle 23 based upon the most recent data is 7.7 for July 2007. The estimates for the minimum vary but there is little doubt it will be well below average. IPS in Australia is calling for a minimum of 4.3 in February. At these values Cycle 24 won't have to kick up much activity to exert an influence on the SSN.
Peter Allen AC5E writes:
If we are fortunate, Cycle 24 will be much like 23. And if we are not a maximum SSN of 40 for Cycle 24 is well within the range of possibility. NASA says very low for sure for Cycle 25, but we shall just have to wait and see.
The findings of the NASA Panel was divided into two camps. One group lead by Dr. David Hathaway and Dr. Mausumi Dikpati states that Cycle 24 will be an above average with a peak SSN of 140 +/- 20. The second group lead by Dr. Leif Svalgaard and Dr. Dean Pesnell estimates the SSN will peak at 90 +/- 10. The Highest estimate given is that of Mausumi Dikpati who estimates the peak at 169 +/- 12. The lowest estimate is that of Leif Svalgaard's who estimates a peak of 70. Of the 33 Papers submitted only two state values lower than that.
On January 2 NOAA released their latest estimate for Cycle 24 and they expect it to peak at 104.8 in June 2012.
IPS Radio and Space Services in Australia predicts a Peak of 134.7 in March of 2012.
So unless everyone is dramatically off the mark the odds of a very low cycle are extremely remote.
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by KA3NRX on January 7, 2008
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Halleluyah!!! this will probably save us from global warming. Sunspots are COOLER areas on the sun, the more sunspots the less solar output, the less solar output the less global warming. WE ARE SAVED!!!!!
REPLY: Oh Pal-leeeez!!!! Hopefully increased solar activity will, not only improve propagation conditions, but WARM the earth nicely. Thus making the man made global warming crowd look more and more like the fools they are! Bring on the sunspots, baby!!!!
Vince P
KA3NRX
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by W4JBR on January 10, 2008
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Halleluyah!!! this will probably save us from global warming. Sunspots are COOLER areas on the sun, the more sunspots the less solar output, the less solar output the less global warming. WE ARE SAVED!!!!!
Will someone please inform Al Gore.......And Alert the Media!!!
<GRIN>
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RE: NOAA Confirms Start of New Sunspot Cycle:
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by W7GGM on January 15, 2008
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Finally, someone is seeing through all of Al Gores hipe about the "theory of global warming". He hates it when someone refers to it as theory. But theory it is. I firmly believe this sun spot cycle will prove all of the environmentals to be junk science peddlers. Lots of their recommendations on how to save the planet are cannon fodder for even a sixth grader. There is a cure for being an environmentalist. Its called education. Lots of good DX lurking in the future.
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