Propagation Forecast Bulletin #52 de K7RA:
W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL
December 28, 2012
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #52 de K7RA:
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 28, 2012
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
An error crept into data reported in last week's bulletin. Solar
flux on December 19 was 113.4, not 117.5. The average for the week,
117.5, was transposed into the solar flux number for the last day of
the reporting period. The Winter Solstice was on the date of the
last Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP051, on Friday December 21,
Average daily solar flux was down this week about four points to
113.4, which coincidentally was the solar flux number for the last
reporting day of the previous week.
Average daily sunspot numbers were down 6.7 points to 65.4.
Geomagnetic indices were very low and stable, which should please
160 meter operators, who are also enjoying the long periods of
darkness in the Northern Hemisphere.
Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF are 110 on December 28-30,
115 on December 31 through January 4, 105 on January 5-7, 110 and
115 on January 8-9, 120 on January 10-12, 115 in January 13-19, and
120 on January 20-22.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 28-29, 5 on December 30
through January 12, 10 on January 13, and 5 on January 14-25.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH has his own geomagnetic forecast, and he says
conditions will be quiet to unsettled on December 28-29, mostly
quiet December 30-31, quiet on January 1-3, mostly quiet January 4,
quiet to unsettled January 5, mostly quiet January 6, quiet on
January 7-9, mostly quiet January 10, quiet to unsettled January 11,
mostly quiet January 12, active to disturbed January 13, quiet to
unsettled January 14, mostly quiet January 15, quiet to active
January 16, and quiet January 17-19.
Jeff, N8II from West Virginia wrote with some observations: "On
Monday December 17 I got up early to find UA0ZN in zone 19 on 80 and
finding not much else, decided to call CQ which resulted in a run of
JAs around sunrise, most of which were very good copy ending with a
JA5 who was S9+10dB! It was one of the best JA openings I have ever
heard from here and my biggest 'run.' Signals from all over
Australia were booming in on the Southern Cross net on 14.2385 MHz
around 1300Z, and 12 meters was wide open to Central and Western
Europe with a few Southern Europeans on 10 meters. VR2XMT was S7 on
long-path on 12 meters around 1330Z.
"I finally had some spare time on a decent sunny day Sunday,
December 23, and fixed my 160 meter sloper feedline. It still needs
some work, but is working like a champ! With 200 watts I was getting
thru to European stations Sunday night with ease. Worked UX0ZA,
another UR, SM6MCW, two Gs, DJ2EH (S9+), another DL, F6 (S9), OE5O,
OK1DQT, OM2XW, and ON4IA (S9+). I also heard 9K2MU who had many USA
stations calling him he could not hear. He was mainly working Europe
and calling CQ.
"Sunday morning was rather poor on 12 meters with some western EU Qs
and a loud LA4. 10 was pretty close to dead, but there were a few
western USA on in the afternoon. But 17 meters was wide open to
Europe with good signals, whereas they would have been much weaker
with higher SFI."
If you are curious about Jeff's antennas, log into QRZ.com and check
his page at
Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington thinks we are past the peak
of Cycle 24. He writes, "It's pretty evident to me that unless we
see another re-generation of new sunspots, November of 2011 will be
the peak of Cycle 24 (short as the activity was) as actual solar
activity as defined by average monthly sunspots and solar flux. Both
measures have been slowly on the decline since that date. Then we
will all have to prepare for the coming Propagation Winter."
Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas wrote: "The design of the
Yaesu FT857-D requires one to 'scroll' from one band to another
rather than a simple push of a button. I had the rig set on 2 meters
Tuesday evening (December 25), and planned to scroll down to 40
meters for the SKCC 2 hour sprint. Hokey Smokes! Voices on 6 when I
hit that band section! Stopped and made a few contacts into
Tennessee. I only caught things open from 12/26 0046z to 0050z.
"Not too impressive, but more contacts than I have made in the past
2 months on 6 meters. Looking forward to the January 19th VHF
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation at
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at
Sunspot numbers for December 20 through 26 were 53, 55, 67, 90, 53,
58, and 82, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 114.1, 114.6,
115.3, 114.2, 113.1, 113, and 109.8, with a mean of 113.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of
3.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 2.7.
Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.
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