Propagation Forecast Bulletin #43 de K7RA:
W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL
October 25, 2013
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #43 de K7RA:
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 25, 2013
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
Solar activity is increasing, suggesting that perhaps now in Fall
2013 we are in the midst of a second peak in Cycle 24. We hope it
Sunspot numbers this week ran up all the way to 228, a level not
seen in the past decade since October 27 through November 1, 2003
when the daily sunspot numbers were 238, 230, 330, 293, 266 and 277.
Prior to that, on January 11, 2003 the daily sunspot number was 238.
Average daily sunspot numbers increased over 35 points to 162 (when
compared to the previous seven day period, October 10-16).
Average daily solar flux increased over 13 points to 139.6.
Geomagnetic indices indicate a quiet geomagnetic field.
Predicted solar flux this week is 165 on October 25-27, then 160,
155, 145, 135, 130, and 115 on October 28 through November 2, 120 on
November 3-5, 125 on November 6-10, 130 on November 11, 135 on
November 12-13, then 130, 120, 115 and 120 on November 14-17, and
115 on November 18-20. Based on recurrence due to solar rotation, in
45 days flux values are predicted at 130.
Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 8 and 20 on October 25-28, 8
on October 29-30, 5 on October 31 through November 9, then 12, 15,
10 and 8 on November 10-13, 5 on November 14-16, then 10 and 8 on
November 17-18. After November 18 everything looks very quiet (A
index of 5) until 44-45 days out, when the prediction shows A index
values of 12 and 15 on December 7-8.
Those predictions come from the United States Air Force Space
Weather Squadron, and are made available to the public via NOAA.
This set of PDF slides gives a hint at some of the tools they use:
As usual, OK1HH gives us his own predictions for geomagnetic
activity. He sees quiet to active geomagnetic conditions on October
25, quiet to unsettled October 26, mostly quiet October 27, quiet to
active October 28-29, mostly quiet October 30, quiet October 31
through November 3, mostly quiet November 4, quiet to active
November 5, quiet to unsettled November 6, mostly quiet November 7,
quiet to active November 8-12, quiet to unsettled November 13, quiet
on November 14-19, and mostly quiet November 20. He does not expect
any days with active to disturbed conditions.
Pete Markavage, WA2CWA of Sayreville, New Jersey reports great
conditions on 10 meters this week, but using AM and FM instead of CW
or SSB. Pete wrote, "Ten meters has been hot all week. During the
late morning hours of October 22 I worked about 25 stations, all on
AM, in a number of Eastern and Western European countries. AM power
was about 90 watts into a 4 element tri-bander. In the late
afternoon I worked a Japanese station on 10 FM direct with a 40 watt
rig. On October 24 around 6:45 PM EDT, finally worked my first
Japanese station on 10 AM. 6 meters has been dismal for openings
here in the East, but 10 meter activity is making up for it."
A week ago we got this from Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia, but
not in time for last week's bulletin: "10 meter and 12 meter
propagation has been up and down with the degree of disturbed
conditions, but almost every day the Middle East and Southern EU are
booming in on 10 meters here.
"I listened Wednesday October 16 until 1430Z and 10 never opened
well to Europe, but that evening about 75 minutes past sunset I was
able to work a weak JA on 10 meter CW, heard one more and worked
another on 12 meter CW around 2400Z when the band seemed to be
closing rapidly. Jimmy BX5AA (Taiwan) was S7 on 15 phone about 0010Z
and easily logged, so it seemed the K index lowered as the day
progressed. A day or two before 10 was wide open to Scandinavia
around 1300-1400Z as well as several southern UA3 area stations
worked on CW. Paths to Africa have been open very late into the day
with TN2NS (Congo) loud at 2130Z on 10 phone and even later on 12
Chip Margelli, K7JA wrote (also last week): "From what I was able to
hear in a brief tune around 10 meters this morning (October 18), it
is widely open to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Nice signals
were observed from OD5ZZ and OD5NJ, several 4X/4Z stations, SU8JOTA
(Boy Scout Jamboree On The Air in Egypt!), and generally signals
from all of Europe were excellent. F6KHM (0.5 W) and MM3FYA (5 Watts
to an attic dipole) were nice copy this morning (October 18) around
"Last night, 18 October at 0158 UTC, I worked FK8CP on 50.110.6 MHz.
Remi peaked about 579 and was in for at least a half hour. QSB was
very heavy, almost like meteor scatter at times, but he also became
steady, solid copy at times, too.
"It's nice to have some prop!
"I run 200 Watts to a 7-element LFA Yagi on 6 meters, and the same
200 Watts to a 7-element OP-DES Yagi on 10 meters."
Ganesh, VU2TS sends us this message from Karnataka: "Hello and
Greetings from South India! I am the editor of Amateur Radio News of
the Amateur Radio Societies of India - ARSI (
and I wish to take this opportunity to thank you for your
propagation bulletin which we are receiving regularly.
"With the sunspot activity quite low, the band conditions these days
are poor - even though we are supposed to be experiencing the Solar
"However, I wish to share with you my pet theory about amateurs
ionizing the ionosphere. This weekend is the CQ WW DX SSB contest,
and with something like 30 to 40,000 stations on the air at the same
time, and some 30% of them using a kW or more, all the bands open up
for long haul DX! (Remember HAARP?)
"Just listen to the bands this weekend - and you will be surprised
at the unusual band openings! Feedback welcome. 73, Ganesh VU2TS."
That's right Ganesh, in order to feed the ionosphere we have to
call, not just listen. It is part of the magic of radio.
Further evidence of the magic of radio is the fact that I am writing
Friday's bulletin while using an airline Wi-Fi connection during a
flight from Seattle to Washington D.C. Like all other basic
in-flight amenities, such as snacks, it is quite expensive. Of
course, back when snacks were free, I couldn't get an internet
connection in the air.
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at
Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 were 166, 154, 149, 117,
179, 228, and 141, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 136.1,
139.9, 132.7, 133.4, 135.8, 146.3, and 152.7, with a mean of 139.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 4.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 3, 3, 3, 2,
3, and 3, with a mean of 3.9.
Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.
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