The FCC's license restructuring proposal is now the law, after pouring gasoline on the "Code vs. No Code" fire for nearly two years. Neither camp seems willing to accept compromise, meaning that one or the other group will surely be consumed by the flames. Sadly, amateurs on both sides of this argument have completely missed the core of the issue and remind one of passengers arranging the deck chairs as the Titanic goes down.

Surely, the No-Coders claim, removing the obstacle of a high speed test of Morse Code proficiency will open an appealing door to those in the general population who are "on the bubble", presumably with the where-with-all to enjoy the hobby but who are discouraged by the code requirement and bewildered by the need to cultivate such an archaic skill. On the flip side, the Coders cite the appreciation of achievement, the demonstration of proficiency, and tradition as the saving values that will rejuvenate amateur radio and lead to continued innovation and vitality.

If merely increasing the number of amateurs were the ends to which our recruiting efforts were dedicated, we have succeeded, ostensibly, in achieving those ends. As of July 1998 (when restructuring was first proposed), according to the FCC's own database, the number of no-code Technician licensees had swelled to over 187,000, representing steady, continuing growth since 1991, the first year of the license. It is the only license class that has sustained healthy growth in that period and is now the most populous of the classes. One in every 3.6 U.S. hams is now a no-code Tech. We have padded the numbers quite impressively, but have we produced any more real hams? Has this effort resulted in a markedly stronger national organization representing amateurs? Has it safeguarded our precious spectrum for this generation and future ones? Has it once and for all convinced manufacturers of the presence of a viable consumer market for various technologically advanced products?

And, if the goal were instead to pack the bands full of experimenters and communicators who were courteous, conscientious, and competent operators, active in their clubs, active in their local public service agencies, active in on-air activities, have we succeeded? Tragically, neither the experiment of the no-code Technician license nor the existing incentive licensing system (with the Morse requirement) has produced significantly more active hams, nor has it substantially bettered the technical and on-air skills of those who do operate either on a regular or an occasional basis. So, what ails amateur radio, and what is the solution?

To answer this question, one must ask oneself why one became interested in amateur radio in the first place.

For the great majority of us, especially those of us who at this moment have a station capable of transmitting on more than just one or two VHF bands, yes, you could say that we are electronics hobbyists who love to build things, that we enjoy experimenting with lots of antennas on our houses and cars, that we get a kick out of playing with the latest and greatest technological toy. Perhaps what motivates us is the right to brag about that new amplifier we just built, or the rare station just worked, or the high score in the contest last weekend. The reasons are very different.

But there is one, peculiar, very personal, intangible thing that I believe is the essence of amateur radio. It is tremendously difficult to describe, but it is that incredible, magical, exhilarating feeling of joy, wonder and amazement at being able to hear, and more importantly talk to someone who is miles away, who happens to be doing the exact same thing that you are doing at this instant, and who talks back to you!

The kindred soul in the next state or province who was listening on his set, on this band, at this time, on this frequency, and who, when he answers you, is now able to be an intimate part of your life in a way that no two other strangers in the world can be. It doesn't matter if you were tuning the low end of 40 in the middle of a light snow on Christmas Eve, or if you were laying out by the pool with your HT and your feet dangling in, or if you were passing time in your bedroom recovering from heart surgery and listening to packet, or if your contact lasted less than ten seconds because it was Field Day, or if you were ragchewing with your pals at your usual time, or if you can't really even speak each other's language. The fact remains that against the testimony of your senses, although you can't see, hear, feel, taste or smell the radio waves leaving and entering your antenna, you transcended distance, culture, age, politics, time zones, and talked to someone, somewhere.

For this is a fascination that can't be taught during a weekend class, isn't absorbed from a study guide, and won't necessarily come to you through osmosis and by hanging out with other hams. You just feel it; you know it. You either have it or you don't. You may have felt the twinge of this fascination when you were a kid and you sneaked a transistor radio to bed to listen to whatever, thus nurturing that fascination.

Has anyone bothered to think that, maybe, just about everyone who ever felt this feeling has already endeavored to get his license? Isn't it time to admit that the number of real amateurs will not continue to grow indefinitely any more than the number of hot-air baloonists, or quilters, or flute players will, simply because these pastimes, like all pastimes, aren't interesting to everybody, only some folks, and ours is one hobby in an ocean of hobbies. And you could make a very good case that, now, even fewer people will feel the intrigue of this hobby what with the availability of the infinitely more diverse World Wide Web, which encompasses all hobbies into one.

We have oversimplified the question to a choice of either: 1. large numbers of paper amateurs, higher security of spectrum, lower operator quality or 2. dwindling ranks, steady erosion of frequency allocations, presumably higher on-air competence. We forget that, when all is said and done, we are left with about two-thirds of a million people who are already on our side. We forget that there is much work to do with the members that we have, especially the "active" members.

But there's a problem here, too. Just ask anyone who has ever tried to generate interest in some aspect of ham radio at the local club. Maybe you took it upon yourself to run Morse Code drills, or decided to organize a QRP transmitter construction project, or teach the club how to build quad antennas or how to work a contest. When these ideas failed, not because they were bad ideas but because apathy killed them, the nets were cast wider to bring in "new blood": great unwashed masses of newly-licensed no-coders who we were certain would respond more positively.

Why hasn't it worked? I'm afraid that whether we had adopted the ARRL restructuring proposal or not, we will be in roughly the same situation as we are in at the moment: stagnant growth, with declining technical competence, increasing tension in the battle with each other for the rights to a particular frequency and increasing tension with other services in the battle over entire frequency bands.

If what you want is real amateur radio evangelism, figure out how to light that fire under people. Simply put, I don't believe it has anything to do with whether the code test is this many words per minute, or whether this class gains priviliges or that part of the band is expanded. It is a matter of searching the collective soul of hams to determine if they are really, truly committed to taking ownership of the daunting crisis facing us today and doing something about it.

Amateur radio will survive, but in what form is anybody's guess. Almost certainly we will be forced into smaller allocations, and we will be fewer in number, and older. This is no daring prediction; it's simply an extension of what has happened in the last ten years. When we look back on these next ten, what will we see?