25 Years From Now: One Possible Future:

Following exhaustive input from persons concerned about the future of Amateur Radio, a revised version of the FISTS proposal became the basis for new Part 97 regulations made effective in 2004. It was decided only high-quality, technically competent individuals should be licensed; and quality is more important than quantity. Telegraphy testing speeds became 13 wpm for Technician, 20 for General and 35 for Extra, requiring one minute of perfect handwritten copy and demonstration of sending proficiency as well. Written examinations correspond with BS, MS, and PHD curriculum respectively per license class. The prestigious accounting firm Price Waterhouse agreed to monitor and validate testing sessions on the stipulation that examinees agree to a 30 minute presentation on portfolio management.

The FCC license database was finally purged of bad data when Amateur Radio was renamed the Professional Radio Volunteer Service to more accurately reflect the prevailing high standards in the US. It was discovered the database included deceased licensees beyond all estimates. The number of licensees still alive was found to be 28% fewer than indicated by the previous total.

By the end of the first ten-year cycle under new regulations (2004-2013), 61% of existing licensees failed their mandatory retests while 11% chose to return their licenses for cancellation rather than re-sit the test. New licensees entered the ranks at the rate of 13 in the first year, leveling off to a smoothed average of 9 over each of the following years. The median age of licensees reached 76.

Fourteen days each year, major contests stimulated activity on some HF and VHF bands in the US. All other times were declared off-peak. Automated stations (beacons) transmitting high speed Morse code advised interested parties when on-air activity would resume in accordance with the next scheduled contest.

A milestone was reached in 2017 when internet penetration into US Households reached 100%. This allowed for low-cost surveys of all licensees. The Professional Radio Volunteer League (PRVL) headquartered in Oldham, SD posed the question "Do you presently own and operate radio equipment?" A yes response was submitted by 23%. Later it was learned many of the respondents were referring to their Wi-Fi networks. A rephrased question yielded a yes answer from 15%. Analysts determined 11,987 licensees were using their radio privileges for the purpose of communications with others. Some operators expressed dismay over the relatively low numbers and mostly vacant radio spectrum. Persons concerned about the future of the Professional Radio Volunteer Service reminded everyone it's still all about quality and not quantity.

That brings us to the prevailing conditions today in 2028. Medical technology continues to extend life expectancy, but the advances however magnificent, cannot keep pace with the demographic profile of Professional Radio Volunteer Operators, now numbering 2,632 with a median age of 84. The latest survey indicates 4% are active on the air during one or more contest days.

On the international DX scene, the United States is a rare one, prompting great interest in DXpeditions to the US. Until recently, the issue of reciprocal operating permits had not been resolved, as the US is the only country in the world still requiring telegraphy for HF access. The two persons concerned about the future of the Professional Radio Volunteer Service reluctantly agreed to allow operators from other countries access to the HF voice band consisting of15 kHz on 29 MHz. Visitor access to all other HF spectrum, 99 percent CW and 1 percent Data, remains strictly prohibited.

A DXpedition team member asked, "Didn't the Yanks used to have a lot of operators back when they had Amateur Radio?" No one knew.