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Author Topic: Help me understand today's prop numbers?  (Read 10792 times)
N6YFM
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Posts: 502




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« on: September 10, 2017, 10:20:18 AM »

So today, Sunday Sept 10, in California USA, I am seeing what look like
great numbers to me:

SFI:  228
Sunspots:  49
Geomag:  VR QUIET
A=6
K=1

Yet the HF bands are dead, and pskreporter shows I can't even get out of
a 75 mile radius around Los Angeles (Home QTH).

I thought if Solar flux is high, and Geomag noise was low,
we should have a good day?   What other numbers am I missing?

Thanks in advance for the education.

Neal
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HAMSTUDY
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Posts: 419




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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2017, 10:46:16 AM »

Roger That - What's Up?  73
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N5MOA
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Posts: 1560




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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2017, 10:56:17 AM »

What other numbers am I missing?

Radio blackout

R 2    Moderate    

HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.

Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.



Solar radiation storm

S 2    Moderate    

Biological: Passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.

Satellite operations: Infrequent single-event upsets possible.

Other systems: Small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/radio-communications

Bands have been dead quiet here for a good bit, just now starting to hear anything on 20m, and that is fairly local.





« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 11:01:33 AM by N5MOA » Logged
K0UA
Member

Posts: 1371




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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2017, 10:57:38 AM »

Same problem here in southwest Missouri.  No propagation, on any band to anywhere except groundwave.   Saw a little tropo this morning on 6 meters, but not much.  I can't remember seeing such dead bands.
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AA6YQ
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Posts: 2650


WWW

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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2017, 10:57:59 AM »

The current SFI is 107, not 228.

Take a look at the Space Weather Overview panel and you'll see a sharp uptake in the Solar X-ray flux indicative of a solar flare.

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WD4ELG
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Posts: 168




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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2017, 11:04:43 AM »

The only thing I am hearing on any bands is some very weak FT8 on 20 meters....KG5HTH.

Well, there goes the 11 year sunspot cycle theory based upon empirical data.  Like the bankers say regarding stock investments: "Past results are not indicative of future performance."

I wonder if this means we will see a shorter cycle this time?
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KM4DYX
Member

Posts: 62




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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2017, 11:35:22 AM »

What's going on today is D region absorption.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap

73, Al


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AA6YQ
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2017, 03:01:50 PM »

The only thing I am hearing on any bands is some very weak FT8 on 20 meters....KG5HTH.

Well, there goes the 11 year sunspot cycle theory based upon empirical data.  Like the bankers say regarding stock investments: "Past results are not indicative of future performance."

I wonder if this means we will see a shorter cycle this time?

See MASSIVE SUNSPOTS AND SOLAR FLARES: THE SUN HAS GONE WRONG AND SCIENTISTS DON’T KNOW WHY. Despite the blaring headline, this article concludes with

"We don’t yet fully understand everything that is happening. But the activity over the past few days, when the sun should be within its quietest period, shows that significant space weather events are possible at any stage of the 11-year solar cycle"

 not

"well, there goes the 11 year sunspot cycle theory".
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K0UA
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Posts: 1371




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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2017, 03:39:34 PM »

Things look pretty normal at this time.. and what I can tell from the decodes, it was about an 3 hour event.  You west coast guys might not be quite up to normal yet as the absorption might be a bit higher out there yet.
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VA3VF
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Posts: 806




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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2017, 04:27:32 PM »

Things look pretty normal at this time.. and what I can tell from the decodes, it was about an 3 hour event.  You west coast guys might not be quite up to normal yet as the absorption might be a bit higher out there yet.

My WSPR beacon has been an interesting experiment. Looking at the reports on WSPRNet, I can see the effects of the current solar/propagation conditions. Blocks of hours with no reports. Blocks of hours with a single station a few kms from me reporting. Then an opening, and reports from 1000's of kms. Fascinating.
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VA3VF
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Posts: 806




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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2017, 04:29:03 PM »

Well, there goes the 11 year sunspot cycle theory based upon empirical data. 

I'm no physicist, but the current events are not related to the 11 year cycle.
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KM4DYX
Member

Posts: 62




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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2017, 04:41:53 PM »

My only rig is an 817, so I'm QRP. One of my (peculiar?) interests is in just how bad conditions have to be before I can no longer connect with a Winlink gateway. K-index 8? Done that. But today's blackout put the kibosh on my Winlink activity. I don't think that a QRO rig would have fared any better, though.
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KC4ZGP
Member

Posts: 1637




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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2017, 06:15:17 AM »


Ain't no point understanding the stuff. If the band is opened, it's opened. Ham away!

Winter, 20 meters and below.

Summer, 20 meters and above.

There you go.

Kraus
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VA3VF
Member

Posts: 806




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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2017, 06:22:51 AM »

Quote
Ain't no point understanding the stuff. If the band is opened, it's opened. Ham away!

Some of us are easily distracted by other minor aspects of the hobby.  Wink
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K0UA
Member

Posts: 1371




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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2017, 06:30:28 AM »


Ain't no point understanding the stuff. If the band is opened, it's opened. Ham away!

Winter, 20 meters and below.

Summer, 20 meters and above.

There you go.

Kraus

Herr Kraus, some of us have "enquiring minds", and would like to learn a few things as we go along in life.  If all I wanted to do was talk to people I could dial random numbers on my phone.
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