Solar activity in October & November

Propagation may be better from now through much of November:

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 October 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest and only event of the
period was a B1 flare at 27/0044 UTC from Region 2686 (N13,
L=108, class/area Hax/030 on 27 Oct). No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 23 Oct with high levels on 24-29 Oct. The largest flux
of the period was 3,103 pfu observed at 29/1510 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels.
The period began under nominal solar wind conditions with wind speeds
ranging between 330 to 415 km/s and total field measurements under 7 nT.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 Oct. At
24/0730 UTC, wind speeds began to increase and total field became enhanced
due to the arrival of a corotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of
a recurrent,
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed
increase to a period high of 675 km/s at 25/1945, total field achieved a
max of 15 nT at 24/1140 UTC and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field dropped to a low of -10 nT at 24/1017 UTC as a result of
this feature. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1 (Minor)
storm levels on 24-25 Oct and quiet to active levels on 26 Oct. The
remainder of the period was indicitive of waning CH HSS influence with
decreasing wind speeds and a less enhanced total field. Quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed on 27 Oct and quiet conditions prevailed on 28-29
Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 October - 25 November 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance
for C-class flares on 30 Oct - 04 Nov and 15-25 Nov due to flare potential
from Regions 2685 (S09, L=131, class/area Hax/070 on 22 Oct) and 2686.
Very low levels are expected on 05-14 Nov.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to
be at high levels on 30 Oct - 01 Nov, 03-06, 08-15, 17-18,
and 21-25 Nov with very high levels on 11-14 Nov due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
on 02-05, 07-12, 15-17, 20-22 Nov, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on
07-11, 20-22 Nov and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 09 Nov due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.