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Author Topic: Cw activity will die after 2037  (Read 11646 times)
S51M
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Posts: 14




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« on: October 31, 2012, 12:31:20 PM »

Dear CW friends!

CW activity will die near 2037. That opinion came from our two "big" local radioamateurs.

CW robots/ experts/decoders are the only future (especially in the contest).

Is this true? What do you think about this?


73
S51M


« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 01:58:49 PM by N2MG » Logged
AB9NZ
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 12:40:14 PM »

I'll only be 76 then, I hope I'm still pounding brass!
   Tom, ab9nz
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K3STX
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 12:47:37 PM »

Tom. I'll be 74, at least we will be able to talk to each other.

I think there will be plenty of CW then, but I suspect it will be decoded by computer. In the old days RTTY was with a teletype machine, now we use computers. No reason think CW will be any different.

Now guys who use their BRAIN to send and receive, that might be WAY down by then, but I don't think gone.

paul
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AE4RV
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 12:51:05 PM »

I'll be in my 60s!

I think as long as people chase DX there will be individual brains decoding CW.
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AG6WT
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 01:22:37 PM »

But then hand keyed CW will make a resurgence in January 19, 2038 03:14:07 GMT when half the world's computers die.
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AA4PB
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 01:24:08 PM »

"I think there will be plenty of CW then, but I suspect it will be decoded by computer. In the old days RTTY was with a teletype machine, now we use computers. No reason think CW will be any different."

There is a difference. RTTY has always been generated by machine with near perfect timing. It was a natural for being decoded by electronics in lieu of a mechanical computer (the teleprinter). Hand-sent CW however has very loose timing which makes it quite difficult for a machine to decode.

Now computers do a lot better job of decoding CW when a computer is used to generate the CW keying. Still, the simple on/off modulation of CW will never keep up with more modern encoding techniques like some of the newer modes with PSK and error correction, in terms of low-error copy in a noisy environment like HF. If you are going to use a computer to generate the message and another computer to decode and display that message then you will always be better off using a more advanced modulation technique than simple CW.

The primary advantage of CW is that it is simple in terms of equipment needed and it can be encoded and decoded by a human. As soon as you add a computers to the mix you loose the primary benefit of CW.

Of course with computers we could eliminate the human from the on-the-air mix altogether. Computers can call and answer CQs, give out signal reports, and even print the QSL cards. Add a robot arm and they can even pin the card up on the wall  Grin  The only thing we need the human for is to pay the electric bill to keep the computer going.


« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 01:29:22 PM by AA4PB » Logged
W7ASA
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 01:34:38 PM »

Oh - I don't think so.  Even in an age of concert quality music pouring out of our computers, iPods and other products, some of us still play musical instruments for the sheer joy of it.  Morse is much the same.


>de Ray
W7asa ..._ ._
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AG6WT
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 01:36:39 PM »

They use to tell us that computers and robots would do our work so we would have more time for fun pursuits.

Seems ironic that I'm having to work harder and longer to pay for that robot... who is just going to lounge in the shack making q's  Angry
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AB9NZ
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 03:52:32 PM »

You nailed it Ray.
Tom, ab9nz
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GILGSN
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 07:29:43 PM »

Nobody has a clue what will be going on in 2037. Making such predictions is ridiculous. I do suspect however that CW will be used for a very long time. If it ever disappears, it will be resurrected, maybe in a different form, by circumstances, some day. Since people don't like to reinvent the wheel, I'm not worried about CW.. As long as there are radios, there will be operators practicing it for it's intrinsic value and as an art. Sword fighting is still practiced today, even though we've had guns for a long time..

Gil.
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K8AXW
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 09:23:04 PM »

I'll take all bets and give 2:1 odds that CW is still being used in 2037!
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S51M
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2012, 12:58:36 AM »

Thanks for your opinions.

I discussed yesterday with two local radioamateurs. Some opinion is that CW will probably die after year 2037.

I guess nobody knows what will happen on this planet until year 2037. Nature show us last years that we can't dominate  everything and technology is not almighty.

I hope and believe that CW (without help of machines) will stay in our hobby like unique activity, where people still needed  their own brains and  skills. Like sailing. Why do people still enjoy sailing (even more and more)? Instead, why they don't take motor boats with sophisticated autopilots…? Aren't they much faster and easier to controll then older sailing methods?

CW (without help of machines) is great and beautiful activity in our hobby. Unfortunately, some people just can't understand this and they will beat anything in the name of speed, machines... For them are real CW operators slow and old fashioned people.

It seems we are losing our humanity. Like the content is not allowed. Only fast, modern cosmetic world, where competition is increasing every moment.

73

Bruno, S51M
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N4OI
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2012, 07:31:07 AM »

Lord willing, I will be 86 years old then...  Plan to keep pounding brass...  I have enjoyed many CW QSOs with OMs much older than 86! 

But there are many examples of enduring methods of doing things -- not just sailing.  For example, I have made a lot of furniture using hand-cut dovetails and mortise and tenon joints --  those pieces will be structurally sound for decades and perhaps centuries.  And how about muzzle-loaded black powder firearms?  Or archery for that matter?  The list of things and processes that should be obsolete -- but in fact are still extremely popular -- is very long, indeed!

73 ES GOD BLESS U ES URS DE KEN N4OI   Grin
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K8AXW
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2012, 09:13:58 AM »

OI:   Cheesy  I'll be 101 years old then.....
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N2EY
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2012, 12:51:28 PM »

The death of "manual" CW has been predicted since before I became a ham in 1967. Hasn't come true in 45 years. 2037 is only 25 years away.

Computers can produce music that exactly follows any musical score - even a score than no human could play. Yet people still learn to play all sorts of musical instruments, some dating back hundreds of years in design.

Cameras can take pictures in a fraction of a second, yet people still spend lots of time drawing and painting in a variety of media.

Etc.

73 de Jim, N2EY

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