Call Search
     

New to Ham Radio?
My Profile

Community
Articles
Forums
News
Reviews
Friends Remembered
Strays
Survey Question

Operating
Contesting
DX Cluster Spots
Propagation

Resources
Calendar
Classifieds
Ham Exams
Ham Links
List Archives
News Articles
Product Reviews
QSL Managers

Site Info
eHam Help (FAQ)
Support the site
The eHam Team
Advertising Info
Vision Statement
About eHam.net

   Home   Help Search  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Double solar peaks  (Read 1201 times)
W6GX
Member

Posts: 2982




Ignore
« on: March 02, 2013, 10:05:11 PM »

Scientists are now predicting a first peak in late 2013 and a second peak in 2015, similar to what Cycle 14 did in the early 20th century.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j4bl57D_1U&feature=youtu.be

73,
Jonathan W6GX
Logged
NU4B
Member

Posts: 2325




Ignore
« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2013, 03:52:14 AM »

Thanks for the link. Let's just hope the peak wasn't in the fall/winter of 2011/2012.
Logged
KD8MJR
Member

Posts: 2679




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2013, 07:00:49 PM »

If they can't even tell you the weather a month in advance, I would not bet the farm that they have a clue as to what the sun will do in a month much less 2 years from now!
Logged
VK3HJ
Member

Posts: 672




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2013, 07:52:35 PM »

The double peak prediction is interesting, in that we may hold out hope for another lift in higher bands, before the cycle closes down. I am pleased I finished my 5BDXCC last band last year. That was 10m.
However, I still take it day by day.
E.g., both 160m to Europe, and 10m to Clipperton are not working from here the past few days. So, I'll just keep looking! In getting out of bed early for 160m to Europe, at the very least I'll work something nice on 80 or 40, and most certainly 30m, to make it worthwhile.
There's nearly always something on to make it worthwhile turning the radio on. Rarely are all bands dead, all day.
Just worked Clipperton on 17m CW QRP!
73 and have fun,
Luke VK3HJ
Logged
AF5CC
Member

Posts: 996




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2013, 08:22:31 PM »

If we do get another peak, lets hope it is Feb of 2014 to coincide with the Heard Island DXpedition!

John AF5CC
Logged
NU1O
Member

Posts: 2749




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2013, 09:21:48 PM »

If they can't even tell you the weather a month in advance, I would not bet the farm that they have a clue as to what the sun will do in a month much less 2 years from now!


I wrote a similar comment a few weeks ago but said they can't predict the next day's weather, nevermind a month from now.

Chris/NU1O
Logged
NU1O
Member

Posts: 2749




Ignore
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2013, 10:07:49 PM »

Scientists are now predicting a first peak in late 2013 and a second peak in 2015, similar to what Cycle 14 did in the early 20th century.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j4bl57D_1U&feature=youtu.be

73,
Jonathan W6GX

I watched that video twice and it is not the opinion of a group of solar scientists. It is the opinion of  one solar scientist, namely Dean Pesnell.  He is now calling for another peak like we had in the fall of 2011, but for later this year with high solar activity "possibly" lasting into 2014.  The Blue Ribbon panel which forecasted low solar activity for this cycle last met in 2008 according to the story. They are not the group forecasting a double peak. I only heard Pesnell's name associated with that prediction.

If the first part of this solar cycle saw most of the solar activity in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun why must things balance out as this piece speculates?  I realize the Earth is not a star but when the Northen Hemisphere of the Earth is beset by a large number of storms I don't hear weather forecasters calling for an increase in storms in the Southerm Hemisphere because things must balance out.

I don't think we have ever had a cycle where two peaks were spread out over a four year period. If anybody wants to make a friendly wager of that occuring I will gladly take the other side of the wager.

The interesting thing is the video ended with the woman announcer saying, "nobody knows what the sun will do but..."  If nobody knows what the sun will do why bother couching this in scientific terms? It's really no different than somebody looking into their crystal ball, or at tea leafs, or frog entrails.

If I were a solar scientist working in what amounts to obscurity, I would make an outlandish prediction, such as this solar cyle will wind up with a high level of solar activity despite the slow start.  If wrong, nobody in the general public is going to recall the prediction, but if correct one would become the most famous solar scientist in the world. With all the fame, glory, loads of groupie sex, and money that brings.  Wink

I think some of the political forecasters are on to that trick because if one was following the online betting sites which are really extremly accurate markets, Obama was never an underdog, yet prominent political commnetators like Dick Morris were predicting Romney would win in a landslide right until the last day.  The bad prediction didn't hurt Morris' career becasue although his contract wasn't renewed at Fox he was given a multi-year contract at CNN so there was no downside for his failure to pick the winner of the presidency despite a high probabilty that Obama would be reelected. That's a nice job!

I have been waiting for the second peak of this cycle and it has been very frustrating as the months pass by. Like most other DXers, I really hope that short burst of activity we saw in the fall of 2011 is not the best this cycle has to offer. If these cycles weren't so long it wouldn't be such a big deal but one gets old pretty fast following sunspot cycles and the average ham is very lucky if he/she sees five of them.

73,

Chris/NU1O
« Last Edit: March 03, 2013, 10:37:12 PM by NU1O » Logged
K3SF
Member

Posts: 52




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2013, 07:00:30 AM »

actually multiple peaks is a common occurrence,

the following cycles have had two peaks
9, 12, 16, 18, 23 and 23
and
cycle 14 had 4 peaks

this is based on data from
http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/3/1

where you can view each cycle graphs

paul K3SF
Logged
N3OX
Member

Posts: 8847


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2013, 07:52:33 AM »

If they can't even tell you the weather a month in advance, I would not bet the farm that they have a clue as to what the sun will do in a month much less 2 years from now!


If you're not willing to state your scientific predictions, it's hard for you and others to learn what's coming closer to working and what isn't.

Detailed solar prediction (and WX prediction) is very hard, and it's impossible for some things (and predicting single intense events like flares or hurricanes much in advance will likely always be impossible because of the chaotic nature of turbulent flows) but who knows where we'll be in 30 years with more powerful observations, more powerful computation, and better theories that come from making and learning from predictions that don't seem very good.

One of the most important things a scientist can do is be willing to be publicly wrong. Keeps 'em honest. But being wrong in public is not something we allow or value much in today's society, even if it's for good reasons Sad
Logged

73,
Dan
http://www.n3ox.net

Monkey/silicon cyborg, beeping at rocks since 1995.
K3NRX
Member

Posts: 2059


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2013, 04:19:38 PM »

Twin Peaks???....Good Grief!.....Like Yogi Berra used to say, I'll believe it when I believe it!..... Roll Eyes....

V
KA3NRX

Logged
KD8MJR
Member

Posts: 2679




Ignore
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2013, 04:46:54 PM »

If they can't even tell you the weather a month in advance, I would not bet the farm that they have a clue as to what the sun will do in a month much less 2 years from now!


I wrote a similar comment a few weeks ago but said they can't predict the next day's weather, nevermind a month from now.

Chris/NU1O

That's true LOL.  This whole thing is nonsense!  They know just about nothing about how to predict the Suns behavior but right now its a hot topic because of the effects on Satellites and power lines, so these "Scientist" are all making predictions just hoping that something sticks so that they can become famous and get a plush job at some solar observatory and become the leading person in the field.   Same crap in the early days of hurricane prediction.  It was not until enough egg was on everyones face that they stopped talking crap predictions and started to gather info and making software that could do the Job.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.11 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!