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Author Topic: What are the odds?  (Read 6141 times)
NO2A
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Posts: 786




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« on: December 11, 2013, 10:54:03 PM »

On 12/9 I worked W0GAF on 30m. Two days later,same band I worked PA3GAF! As I wrote the second call,which was immediately after the first GAF,it hit me. While I`ve heard the same suffix before with certain calls,it`s unusual to have that happen one right after the other. Has anyone else had a coincedense like this?
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KB4QAA
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Posts: 2381




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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2013, 11:20:25 PM »

Chances are 1 in 17,576 QSO's, all things assumed to be equal on a number of considerations.

The chances of this happening for the succeeding QSO are exactly the same since the two events are not dependent or connected.  Same is true of flipping a coin.

Explaination:  Three letters form the suffix, each has 26 possibilities.  Thus, 26 x 26 x 26 = 17,576

Normal reaction: Pretty rare!  Wow!  Smiley

« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 11:22:44 PM by KB4QAA » Logged
AC4RD
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Posts: 1235




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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2013, 09:20:16 AM »

I think it was last year, I was in the car and replied to a CQ on 15m phone.  The guy came back to me, AC4RD, only he got my call wrong, and called me AC8RD.  Only it turned out AC8RD had ALSO called him at the same time, and that was who he was calling.  :-)  That's a pretty good coincidence, I'd say!
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KU4UV
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Posts: 376




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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2013, 01:19:23 PM »

Rather odd coincidence I'd say, but it happens.  My twin brother and I were camping out doing Field day this year.  I heard a station give their call as KU4V.  My callsign is KU4UV, just one letter off.  The other station's callsign definitely got my attention, and we both had a good laugh over that exchange!  I'd never worked another station with a callsign that similar to mine in my 21 years as a ham operator.  Several years ago, I worked a station on 10 meters one afternoon, that I thought I had worked before.  After checking my log, I realized that we had worked each other at almost exactly the same time, exactly one year prior.  Weird.

73,
KU4UV
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G3RZP
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Posts: 4619




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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2013, 03:54:26 AM »

About 40 years ago, I often worked in an informal 160m net. An occasional participant was G3RPZ, and it usually confused the hell out of any drop in callers!

At one time, G4RZP was active in 2m contests: naturally, that led to plenty of 'Worked before!' replies from people.
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WS3N
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Posts: 705




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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2013, 05:52:46 AM »

Chances are 1 in 17,576 QSO's, all things assumed to be equal on a number of considerations.

The chances of this happening for the succeeding QSO are exactly the same since the two events are not dependent or connected.  Same is true of flipping a coin.

Explaination:  Three letters form the suffix, each has 26 possibilities.  Thus, 26 x 26 x 26 = 17,576

Normal reaction: Pretty rare!  Wow!  Smiley



You forgot about one- and two-letter suffixes.
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KB2FCV
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Posts: 1193


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« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2013, 08:22:04 AM »

I worked EI6JK and EI7JK on the same band, but different modes within a 10 minutes of eachother. Just to make sure, I switched back and forth after and both were there working stations.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 08:24:06 AM by KB2FCV » Logged
K9AIM
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Posts: 1046




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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2013, 11:03:11 AM »

Chances are 1 in 17,576 QSO's, all things assumed to be equal on a number of considerations.

And all things being unequal is the norm so it is even rarer in that it has to be someone within your prop, and someone active at the same time of day as you are for each QSO, and someone active in the same frequency & segment. 

I find it pretty cool when i work someone with the same suffix as i -- one domestic and one DX so far...

i suppose those with the suffix 'DX' do that the most, at least when taking into consideration international stations?

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NO2A
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2013, 01:35:50 PM »

It would be neat to work another call like mine in a different call district. I have yet to hear any other NO-- calls on hf.
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W7ARX
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Posts: 438




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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2013, 08:53:09 AM »

In years past, I would make an "award" regarding working someone with the same suffix as mine, etc.  It was kinda fun to note the calls when I came across them, and they got a hoot from it, when I QSL'd with the "Award". 
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WD8KNI
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Posts: 149




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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2013, 07:32:33 PM »

There are many hams from other countries that get call signs in multiple countries.. a good example here in Orlando if K4ZPZ who is also G3ZPZ in the UK, so depending on what country he is in determines what call he uses... then when he is on echo link, or IRLP back to Orlando I have heard many get confused. 

But I must comment on a actual happening in 1979 on July 17 at 0003 Hrs local.  I was talking to WB4RHS, Frank on 146.520 simplex, Columbus Ohio,  I said:

"Frank wish me happy birthday"
Frank"  "Only if you wish me happy birthday"
Me: "Happy birthday Frank, how old are you today"
Frank: "30, and you"
Me:  "I'm 30 also, where were you born"
Frank: "In a small town you most likely have never heard of Martins Ferry Ohio"

after a long pause..

Me:  " so was I"

We both woke up our mothers on the phone, turns out the place was so small they both remembered there only being one other woman in delivery that night..

So here we both were 30 years later both now hams, talking to each outer on our birthday, born in the same hospital within hours, he was actually 2 hours older than me..  We had known and talked to each other all the time for the 5 preceding years.

... Fred
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WD4ELG
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Posts: 875




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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2013, 05:34:31 PM »

Fred, that is TOO COOL!
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K0RS
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Posts: 718




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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2013, 03:47:55 PM »

K9RS and myself are frequently in the same DX pileups.
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K7KBN
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Posts: 2805




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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2013, 06:46:58 PM »

The Odds are not evenly divisible by 2.  The Evens are.
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73
Pat K7KBN
CWO4 USNR Ret.
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