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Author Topic: Is it worth the time and trouble...?  (Read 6689 times)
KC9YTJ
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Posts: 62




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« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2014, 10:47:06 AM »

Quote
About 50,000 licenses are club call signs and contest clubs, which at one time was allowed to hold more then one call sign per a club.

Figure out how many General, Advanced and Amateur Extra class license holders are dead, but no one turned in their death certificate.

Subtract those numbers from the 715,000 licenses and then divide by 100 - since 715 minus 50,000 minus probably 75,000 = 125,000

Generally "they" don't call a WAG "statistics".  At least that's what they taught my wife when she had to take statistics about a year ago for her Master's program.  And all you have here is a WAG.  Nobody is really going to know how many current licenses are truly inactive (either SK or simply QRT) until they start to drop off for non-renewal.

So maybe next time instead of just asserting that something is so when you can't possibly know for a fact that it is, you might want to preface it with "Well, this is a WAG, but..."
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N2EY
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Posts: 3860




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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2014, 03:22:21 PM »

Upwards of 65% of all licensee's are only a Technician Class license holder.

Where did you get your figures or did you just make up a random number out of thin air?

As of November 13, 2012, there were 348,786 Technicians and a total of 716,672 total licensed amateurs which is about 48%. My source is: http://www.ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

What is your source?

ARRL

About 50,000 licenses are club call signs and contest clubs, which at one time was allowed to hold more then one call sign per a club.

No. Wrong.

The number of current, unexpired licenses held by individuals is now about 717,000. That does NOT include clubs and other secondary licenses. 717,000 individuals.

Figure out how many General, Advanced and Amateur Extra class license holders are dead, but no one turned in their death certificate.

Subtract those numbers from the 715,000 licenses and then divide by 100 - since 715 minus 50,000 minus probably 75,000 = 125,000

716,672 - 125,000 = 591,672

The license totals always include a certain percentage of dead and disinterested folks who are inactive and will never renew. Why do you assume all Techs are active?


It stands to reason that there are more people that holds a technician class license, and most of them are new hams or licensed less then 20 years, so more of them are probably still alive.

No, it doesn't.

The Technician license has been around since 1951. 20 years ago was 1993. A lot of folks getting ham licenses today are older, too.


It stands to reason that a higher % of General and Advanced and Amateur Extra licensee's would be beyond retirement age and closer to their death bed then not.

Not at all. Lots of young folks get their licenses and upgrade fast.


In college they call this stuff Statistic's.

348,786 Technician class license holders,  if you have 325,000 living Technician class license holders and only 291,672 of all of the others, you have more then 50% that are technician class license holders.

Your numbers are based on invalid assumptions.

73 de Jim, N2EY
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N0IU
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Posts: 1255


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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2014, 07:19:38 PM »

In college they call this stuff Statistic's.

When I took statistics in college, both at the undergraduate and graduate level, they call what you are talking about.... BULLCRAP!
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W1JKA
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Posts: 1619




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« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2014, 12:58:34 AM »

BULLCRAP?? Do you mean the study of barnyard statistics where you count the cow patties every morning and try to determine the feed per hoof pound ratio?
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W3HF
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Posts: 678


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« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2014, 05:23:15 AM »

In college they call this stuff Statistic's.

348,786 Technician class license holders,  if you have 325,000 living Technician class license holders and only 291,672 of all of the others, you have more then 50% that are technician class license holders.

Your numbers are based on invalid assumptions.

73 de Jim, N2EY

And even if I were to believe your WAGs (325k Techs and 291,672 others), that's still only 52.7%. You started this discussion saying "upwards of 65%."

In my kindergarten class (not college) I learned this was called exaggeration. And it's used in debates only when someone doesn't have the facts to back up a pre-conceived argument.
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