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Author Topic: FT5ZM solar flux prediction  (Read 13112 times)
AA6YQ
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« Reply #75 on: February 06, 2014, 02:41:31 PM »

With the solar flux above 190 from your QTH in Indiana, there should be a good 15m opening to Japan and the far east around 23Z for an hour after your local sunset; there may be a weaker far east opening on 17m between 4Z and 7Z. If you're trying to work FT5Zm on 15m, your best shot is from 18Z to 20Z, with the opening then weakening until it evaporates at your sunset. The better your antenna and transceiver, the more likely you'll be able to exploit these openings.

okay, thanks for the help!  So, when the chart reports that conditions at night on 15m will be 'good' and on 40m at night just 'fair' -- I should take that to mean compared to normal for that particular band, yes?

Yes. As the flux increases, openings on the high bands become stronger, start sooner, and end later. Openings that don't exist with the flux at 100 can provide excellent propagation with the flux at 200.

anyone have a chart showing quarterly SFI levels over the past 5 years? (or 15 years?) I am trying to get an idea of where we did or will peak for this cycle,



and also maybe what former cycles looked like...  



   73,

         Dave, AA6YQ
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K9AIM
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Posts: 940




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« Reply #76 on: February 06, 2014, 03:54:13 PM »

thanks Dave!  I got my Novice in Oct. 1976 and was pretty much derailed from ham radio adventures by a driver's license & girlfriends by 1978. Then I became active in ham radio again in 2008 till the present.  Both starting points were bad ones in terms of propagation for the high bands, but at least i have a sense of perspective to appreciate where we are at now  Cheesy

In 1976 I used to wonder what working DX would be like and yearned for Alaska & Hawaii and Antarctica seemed like the Holy Grail with my HW-16 and a handful of xtals and a multi-band inverted vee.
I got bitten by the DX bug during VP8ORK and after wearing myself thin in pileups eventually got them on 30 meters.  Getting the card and LoTW confirmations were happy dance times  Smiley

I've heard rumors of 10 meters being open 24-7 during cycle peaks...  Guess I will have to stick around for another cycle or two to see that firsthand.  What flux number would likely yield 10 meter openings thru the wee hours of the night  Huh

Now I have K9W and FT5ZM in the bag and 200 LoTW confirmed.  The next 100 will be a real challenge with my setup, but thanks to tools and tips provided by people like you it should be doable with years of but-in-chair time and maybe some antenna construction...
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QRPNEW
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Posts: 51




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« Reply #77 on: February 07, 2014, 02:11:30 PM »

Regardless of the propagation conditions. Nobody should have to put up with any operation where the operators dont want to turn their beams into other areas of the world.
Its morally wrong expecting the rest of the world to call in a 5/9+20db pileup and be expected to get through with a 20 to 30 db null onto your station.

Its bad enough that conditions have been a bit hit and miss on bands like 10 and 12 meters. Having a  ham made beam  penalty  is  just very unfair to everyone who has to deal with this problem.
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AA6YQ
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« Reply #78 on: February 07, 2014, 02:24:53 PM »

Regardless of the propagation conditions. Nobody should have to put up with any operation where the operators dont want to turn their beams into other areas of the world.
Its morally wrong expecting the rest of the world to call in a 5/9+20db pileup and be expected to get through with a 20 to 30 db null onto your station.

Its bad enough that conditions have been a bit hit and miss on bands like 10 and 12 meters. Having a  ham made beam  penalty  is  just very unfair to everyone who has to deal with this problem.

The FT5ZM operators have been successfully working different areas of the world, and aiming their beams appropriately. Your courageously unsigned post is just the whining of an operator unable to work them. Try improving your technique and station.

     73,

          Dave, AA6YQ
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QRPNEW
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« Reply #79 on: February 07, 2014, 02:55:11 PM »

Spoken well  from a special operator who had the beam turned towards this country and station.

Do me a favor turn your beam away from FT5ZM and work them on 10,12 and 15 meters while they working Europe.

Come back  and if you honest I want to  see if you have  the same attitude. Its great being a legend in your own mind when you dont have obstacles in your path like the
rest of the world has to put up with.

Nothing wrong with my station. Its adequate and I dont suffer from station envy. I do envy operators however who have the beam turned towards as a special area and work  a dx station handed to them  on a platter. I think I should move my station to Europe or NA so I can feel like a special person with a  beam pointed towards me every time their is a dxpedition on.

Thanks  MR Special you have  exposed my failings in  working the DX.  I need to change my aftershave so they turn their beams towards me.

Regardless of the propagation conditions. Nobody should have to put up with any operation where the operators dont want to turn their beams into other areas of the world.
Its morally wrong expecting the rest of the world to call in a 5/9+20db pileup and be expected to get through with a 20 to 30 db null onto your station.

Its bad enough that conditions have been a bit hit and miss on bands like 10 and 12 meters. Having a  ham made beam  penalty  is  just very unfair to everyone who has to deal with this problem.

The FT5ZM operators have been successfully working different areas of the world, and aiming their beams appropriately. Your courageously unsigned post is just the whining of an operator unable to work them. Try improving your technique and station.

     73,

          Dave, AA6YQ
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K9AIM
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« Reply #80 on: February 07, 2014, 03:13:15 PM »

Quote
I've heard rumors of 10 meters being open 24-7 during cycle peaks...  Guess I will have to stick around for another cycle or two to see that firsthand.  What flux number would likely be necessary to yield 10 meter openings thru the wee hours of the night  Huh

sorry if this is thread drift but think of it as some cheese to go with the whines...   Cheesy
If anyone knows the answer to my above question, please respond.  thanks.

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AA6YQ
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« Reply #81 on: February 07, 2014, 03:35:49 PM »

Quote
I've heard rumors of 10 meters being open 24-7 during cycle peaks...  Guess I will have to stick around for another cycle or two to see that firsthand.  What flux number would likely be necessary to yield 10 meter openings thru the wee hours of the night  Huh

I've never experienced 10m being open for DX around the clock, but have only been licensed since 1990. The VOACAP forecasting engine does not predict the MUF being above 28 Mhz around the clock for any realistic solar flux value.

      73,

           Dave, AA6YQ
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AH6RR
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Posts: 803




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« Reply #82 on: February 07, 2014, 05:21:38 PM »

Dave back before I got my ticket in the late 70's early 80's I was able to work 11M 24hrs a day. it started in the east and worked it's way west and back to east again. That is when the DX bug really hit me so I decided it was time to get my ticket before I got one from the FCC that was the wrong kind  Roll Eyes.
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AA6YQ
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« Reply #83 on: February 07, 2014, 05:35:50 PM »

Dave back before I got my ticket in the late 70's early 80's I was able to work 11M 24hrs a day. it started in the east and worked it's way west and back to east again.

Was all of that ionospheric propagation, Roland, or was some of it groundwave?

      73,

           Dave, AA6YQ
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GM4PLM
Member

Posts: 88




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« Reply #84 on: February 07, 2014, 05:49:49 PM »

Spoken well  from a special operator who had the beam turned towards this country and station.

Do me a favor turn your beam away from FT5ZM and work them on 10,12 and 15 meters while they working Europe.

Come back  and if you honest I want to  see if you have  the same attitude. Its great being a legend in your own mind when you dont have obstacles in your path like the
rest of the world has to put up with.

Nothing wrong with my station. Its adequate and I dont suffer from station envy. I do envy operators however who have the beam turned towards as a special area and work  a dx station handed to them  on a platter. I think I should move my station to Europe or NA so I can feel like a special person with a  beam pointed towards me every time their is a dxpedition on.

Thanks  MR Special you have  exposed my failings in  working the DX.  I need to change my aftershave so they turn their beams towards me.

Regardless of the propagation conditions. Nobody should have to put up with any operation where the operators dont want to turn their beams into other areas of the world.
Its morally wrong expecting the rest of the world to call in a 5/9+20db pileup and be expected to get through with a 20 to 30 db null onto your station.

Its bad enough that conditions have been a bit hit and miss on bands like 10 and 12 meters. Having a  ham made beam  penalty  is  just very unfair to everyone who has to deal with this problem.

The FT5ZM operators have been successfully working different areas of the world, and aiming their beams appropriately. Your courageously unsigned post is just the whining of an operator unable to work them. Try improving your technique and station.

     73,

          Dave, AA6YQ

you're sounding like a stuck record - quit the whining

and BTW ... stop hiding behind a tag ... publish your callsign - you sound like the whiners on the clusters hiding behind fake callsigns/tags ... stop being a coward

yes its hard living in a minority area ... try living in OC ...get  used to it and .... I know plenty of hams down here who all made it in the logs.

So stop yer whinging and get the hours in the pileups .. it hasn't been easy but its possible to do it .. but it needs skills and hours in the pileups to get there.

Or are you just a persistent whinger like the rest of your posts seem to be ... in which case ... tough luck

73 Simon ZL4PLM

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N4DSP
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Posts: 124




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« Reply #85 on: February 07, 2014, 05:54:22 PM »

Conditions have been great in North Carolina but get them to work North America on 15 and 10 mtrs has not happened yet. The past 5 days they have worked EU from 6AM EST to late afternoon while they are 599 in North Carolina. Excellent propagation doesn't matter if you have ops who don't take a few hours a day and call for NA stations on these two bands.

Go figure.

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AH6RR
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« Reply #86 on: February 07, 2014, 10:53:39 PM »

Dave back before I got my ticket in the late 70's early 80's I was able to work 11M 24hrs a day. it started in the east and worked it's way west and back to east again.

Was all of that ionospheric propagation, Roland, or was some of it groundwave?

      73,

           Dave, AA6YQ

If you want to call ground wave from South Texas to Australia Roll Eyes and to Malaysia,.  At the time I lived about 300 yards from a US Navy Radio installation and that was right on a small saltwater bay and it was like a signal magnet. When there was no propagation via F layer hops the ground wave was also unbelievable I could talk to Houston (265 Miles) and to Brownsville (125 miles) with just 12 watts on SSB. After I got my license I worked a lot of 2M SSB and I had a good 500 mile range with a barefoot TS-700SP and a 13 element boomer antenna.  10M SSB was fantastic in fact I was able to work JY1 King Hussein just 3 weeks after getting my license I lost the card though on the move to Hawaii.

Roland AH6RR 
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NU1O
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« Reply #87 on: February 07, 2014, 11:05:00 PM »

Dave back before I got my ticket in the late 70's early 80's I was able to work 11M 24hrs a day. it started in the east and worked it's way west and back to east again. That is when the DX bug really hit me so I decided it was time to get my ticket before I got one from the FCC that was the wrong kind  Roll Eyes.

Where were you located when 11 meters was open around the clock and are you including Sporadic E openings?  

This is my third cycle as a licensed amateur (I was licensed in 1988) and I've never seen 10 meters open 24/7.  About 10 PM local time is typically as late as 10 meters is open here in New England.  I keep track of the solar numbers in the margins of my logs and I'm fairly sure I have some daily SFI readings of over 300 from the previous two solar cycle peaks.

Before I received my amateur license I also spent time working DX on 11 meters so I've been closely following either 10 or 11 meters since the early Seventies.  I've worked a lot of sporadic E layer skip on 11 meters but although those openings are possible at anytime of the day they don't last 24 hours.  

Location plays a big role in propagation.  A few weeks ago I was working 9Y4D on 20 meters at around 0400 UTC.  He was the only station I was hearing but he was receiving stations from Europe to which I had no opening.

We have some forum members who've been licensed amateurs for 50 years and longer.  I'd like to see what somebody like Chuck, NI0C, has experienced with regard to conditions on 10 meters.  This topic has come up several times in the last three or four years but I don't recall a definitive answer.

73,

Chris  NU1O
« Last Edit: February 07, 2014, 11:08:04 PM by NU1O » Logged
AH6RR
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Posts: 803




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« Reply #88 on: February 07, 2014, 11:19:00 PM »

Chris, I was first licensed in 86 so it was like 1981-85 that I saw it open 24Hrs to somewhere but read my previous post on where I was located. There was some sporadic E but a lot was F2 skip at 11 pm local I was working VK's and ZL's along with lots of DU's and 9M2's of course they did not have ham calls (well a few said they had ham tickets but had more fun on 11 meters). I was running a 4 element beam and a Cobra 132, Cobra 148 and then a Kenwood TS-520 that when I did get my ticket I changed it back to 10M and threw away the 11 meter crystals and I have not been on 11 meters since 86.
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K9NW
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« Reply #89 on: February 09, 2014, 06:39:55 PM »

We have some forum members who've been licensed amateurs for 50 years and longer.  I'd like to see what somebody like Chuck, NI0C, has experienced with regard to conditions on 10 meters.

I haven't been licensed 50 years but I have been QRV since 1979.  In the fall of 1980 I remember working JAs til near local midnight on occasion, this with a 2 el quad on the roof of my parents' house in Minnesota.  In the springtime there were occasional over-the-pole openings into places like UM8, UJ8, etc., that occurred well after local sunset.

In the 2001 CQWW Phone contest, from Indiana I worked into VU, UA9, 4L, etc. between midnight and 1AM local (0400z - 0500z)  In 2002 CQ WPX Phone contest I worked long path into 8Q, YB, etc. around 0300z.

I'm not so sure I'd go as far a saying there were 24/7 openings (define "opening") but at certain times of the year there certainly were occasional secondary openings, often only noticed because of a major contest going on.
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