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Author Topic: What Percentage of DX Stations are Using LOTW ?  (Read 1214 times)
AA6YQ
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2018, 02:26:30 PM »

In the middle of December, I analyzed the then-current LoTW Callsign list.

Of the ~112K callsigns on the list, 30,936 of them had submitted QSOs to LoTW within the past 3 months.

Of those 30,936 active LoTW callsigns, 13,855 of them were callsigns issued by the US FCC. That's 45%.

55% of the active callsigns being non-US is a larger fraction than I was expecting, but I continue to advocate for simplifying the authentication process for non-US LoTW applicants (without compromising the integrity of that process).

   73,

           Dave, AA6YQ (volunteer member, ARRL LoTW Committee)
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 02:43:08 PM by AA6YQ » Logged
VA3VF
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2018, 02:44:44 PM »

...but I continue to advocate for simplifying the authentication process for non-US LoTW applicants (without compromising the integrity of that process).

   73,

           Dave, AA6YQ (volunteer member, ARRL LoTW Committee)

This is very much appreciated, Dave.
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WO7R
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« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2018, 04:06:11 PM »

We are starting to back (once again) into the question of "how many DXers are there"?

Well, there's a bit of "one true scotsman" fallacy here.  Are you a DXer because you say you are?  Made DXCC?  Made Honor Roll?  If you set the bar at each place, you would get a different answer.

In an earlier thread, I think we generally agreed (to the extent there is ever agreement in a forum like this) that the "secure minimum" number of DXers would be the number of uniques that work the larger DXpeditions.  Even this number shows a lot of flux:

http://www.gdxf.de/megadxpeditions/honorroll.php     ... but you can make good arguments out of that for any number between 30,000 and 40,000. 

And, while the data is limited and hard to analyze, and quite variable, I can discern a rough relationship that suggests 2,000 unique calls a day for the first two and a half weeks and about 1,000 per day thereafter.  There is no obvious termination point; our longest DXpeditions may exhaust the pool of newness, but the available, limited data suggests otherwise.  Apparently, a lot of someones have a rig in the shop or a trip to Aunt Marge no matter how big the DXpedition.

A couple of years ago, Clublog's own analysis (which you can find here:  http://g7vjr.org/2013/04/how-many-dxers-are-there-in-the-world/
. . .suggested a couple of criteria.  I personally like the 150,000 number (based on 6+ QSOs logged with Clublog and is not limited to CL members).

My own informal analysis of LOTW data (I suggest that the slowly rising match rate suggests about 42 per cent of active users are in LOTW, probably much higher if we restrict to more recent years).  That is based on an argument that suggests actual participants would be at the rate of the square root of the match rate.

That leads to a large total population now of about 240,000 in and out of LOTW, but it also includes all the VHFers, contesters, and even those doing WAS.  How far to adjust downward would be an open question.  It would, however, almost certainly represent the extreme upper bound.

I would suggest that however you define it, the DXing population is probably between 40,000 and 150,000 and you can adjust upward or downward based on either your own analysis (which is difficult on the available data) or even your view of how "serious" someone has to be to be counted.
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VA3VF
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« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2018, 04:40:59 PM »

Quote
Are you a DXer because you say you are?

Yes. Wink

Quote
In an earlier thread, I think we generally agreed (to the extent there is ever agreement in a forum like this) that the "secure minimum" number of DXers would be the number of uniques that work the larger DXpeditions.

I think this is indeed the best criteria, even though it would exclude me in the majority of cases.

Quote
I would suggest that however you define it, the DXing population is probably between 40,000 and 150,000 and you can adjust upward or downward based on either your own analysis (which is difficult on the available data) or even your view of how "serious" someone has to be to be counted.

The variation could well be related to how long a DXped was on the air, and how well it was managed, in addition to 'most wanted' status. The casual DXer, and the 'rubberneck' DXer (the guy that sees a pile up and joins, no matter what it is), will be the delta, in my opinion.

The hardcore DXer will be in the logs most of the time, regardless of the conditions I mentioned above.

People like me, will only make it when all others managed to get all the contacts they need.
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WO7R
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« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2018, 05:42:29 PM »

Quote
The variation could well be related to how long a DXped was on the air, and how well it was managed, in addition to 'most wanted' status. The casual DXer, and the 'rubberneck' DXer (the guy that sees a pile up and joins, no matter what it is), will be the delta, in my opinion.

I took the aforementioned site, and plotted per cent of uniques versus total Qs, laid it out by DXpeditiopn days, and got a scatter graph that wandered all over the place.

I'm not sure that we can make any more highly definitive statements about the data (or, at least, not without a smarter statistician than me looking at it) to figure out what's really going on.

And, who really knows about "rareness"?  The Clublog data and the survey data (an old DX magazine used to do an annual survey of its readers, not quite the same methodology) had some interesting disagreements and they were (while both lasted) the most comparable data on "rareness" we had and it wasn't all that perfect.  Clublog has some serious disagreements if you compare global need to regional needs.  The variance there can be quite stark, though it is obviously not so easily comparable.  But, it does show that this data, however you slice it, has significant variance built-in.  So, I don't know that anyone can wisely correct the data we have for "rareness".

I do know that even the best DXpeditions do not move the rare ones completely out of sight.  Many in Clublog fall from the top 5 to (say) the top 150 or top 120 afterwards; even only a calendar quarter later or two.  It's true that not everyone uploads at once, but many if not most do.  The fall off suggests (as does the continuing finding of at least 1,000 unique calls a day in the data we have) that it is beyond our current scope to have an expedition that fully exhausts the need.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 05:46:06 PM by WO7R » Logged
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