For the month of October, 2012, the SSN will be over 100. It will again be over 100 for the months of July and August 2013.
Gentleman's bet. I have never been a gambler.
We already had a pretty big peak in I think Oct 2011 which was followed by dismal numbers 6 weeks later. Are you saying we are just going to get 2 more spikes like that?
If your talking true solar peak I think your statement should be Over 100 SSN Avg from Oct 2012 to August 2013! That would be a true cycle and not just a blip.
I think on average, from now until late 2013 or very early 2014 that it will be a lot like that really excellent 6 weeks we had late last year. The two peaks we will have will be better - and might even feel a little like part of the last cycle - and the dips will be like the peak we had late last year.
This is why I just built that yagi for 17M. I'm guessing that the peaks will give us some killer bursts on 10 and 12M, but as an average, 15 and 17M will be the "stars" - where great DX can be worked. I think 17M will be open really late into the night - and will look like 20M has been at night the last couple of days. I'm betting on 17M - but I have 5 dBd gain and > 20 dB FB on both 17M and 15M. I will be in really great shape for the next couple of years - and will get to HR for sure.
My optimism is fueled by working two of the absolute hardest paths the first half of this year - in huge pileups where I got through - and I am a little pistol (moving from pea shooter to pop gun). I will agree with anyone who says this cycle sucks - but that it just means you have to really pay close attention - way more than last cycle. I have been a ham since 1973, and only have made 4227 QSO's, ever. I was active as a rag chewer from 1973 - 1977, then inactive until 2001. Since July 2001 I have earned 8BDXCC, 1800 DXCC Challenge and 328 entities that count toward HR and 332 total - with deletes.
From my count - you can see that I listen way more than I transmit. I'm more of an SWL than HAM - hi hi. When I do transmit, it usually counts.
The entire cycle will be significantly down from Cycle 24, but the astute will be rewarded by a lot of great surprises.
If I am wrong, I will take a picture wearing a "DX Hair Shirt" and a sad facial expression, and write a blog about it - and if I am right - I will take a picture holding an Honor Roll Plaque in one hand with a bottle of Green Flash "Palate Wrecker" in the other.