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Author Topic: The DX-ing Fun is Just About to Start!  (Read 6003 times)

« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2012, 10:46:06 AM »

For the month of October, 2012, the SSN will be over 100. It will again be over 100 for the months of July and August 2013.

Gentleman's bet. I have never been a gambler.

We already had a pretty big peak in I think Oct 2011 which was followed by dismal numbers 6 weeks later.   Are you saying we are just going to get 2 more spikes like that?
If your talking true solar peak I think your statement should be Over 100 SSN Avg from Oct 2012 to August 2013!  That would be a true cycle and not just a blip.

I think on average, from now until late 2013 or very early 2014 that it will be a lot like that really excellent 6 weeks we had late last year. The two peaks we will have will be better - and might even feel a little like part of the last cycle - and the dips will be like the peak we had late last year.

This is why I just built that yagi for 17M. I'm guessing that the peaks will give us some killer bursts on 10 and 12M, but as an average, 15 and 17M will be the "stars" - where great DX can be worked. I think 17M will be open really late into the night - and will look like 20M has been at night the last couple of days. I'm betting on 17M - but I have 5 dBd gain and > 20 dB FB on both 17M and 15M. I will be in really great shape for the next couple of years - and will get to HR for sure.

My optimism is fueled by working two of the absolute hardest paths the first half of this year - in huge pileups where I got through - and I am a little pistol (moving from pea shooter to pop gun). I will agree with anyone who says this cycle sucks - but that it just means you have to really pay close attention - way more than last cycle. I have been a ham since 1973, and only have made 4227 QSO's, ever. I was active as a rag chewer from 1973 - 1977, then inactive until 2001. Since July 2001 I have earned 8BDXCC, 1800 DXCC Challenge and 328 entities that count toward HR and 332 total - with deletes.

From my count - you can see that I listen way more than I transmit. I'm more of an SWL than HAM - hi hi. When I do transmit, it usually counts.

The entire cycle will be significantly down from Cycle 24, but the astute will be rewarded by a lot of great surprises.

If I am wrong, I will take a picture wearing a "DX Hair Shirt" and a sad facial expression, and write a blog about it - and if I am right - I will take a picture holding an Honor Roll Plaque in one hand with a bottle of Green Flash "Palate Wrecker" in the other.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2012, 11:22:07 AM by KY6R » Logged

Posts: 4438

« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2012, 12:26:51 AM »


What I find odd is that you seem to feel this cycle is going to be better than the conventional wisdom yet it seems like you are spending a lot of time talking about 17 meters.  I've never had a beam for that band and my inverted Vee is still down from last October's storm, but 17 has been one of the best bands for at least a year and it should remain a good band even after the cycle has  peaked. It should be a very good band, at least during the day, except for the years when the cycle bottoms out. In looking at my log I worked a lot of Asian DX last summer before the SFI climbed over 100 with just the inverted Vee although I did add the Alpha around June 1st.

When, and if, this cycle takes out last fall's highs the best bands should be 10, 12 and 15. During  the peaks of the last two cycles i spent virtually all my time on 10 and 15 (I only had the A3S).  In looking at my logs it seems the only time I was on 20 was to work a new one.

I'm looking to put up a replacement for the A3S this fall but I'm also planning for the downturn after this peak so I'm thinking of putting up a Skyhawk for 10, 15 and 20 and using it on 17 with a tuner.  I want to put up a two element beam for 40 so I have an antenna with some gain for when 20 starts closing after sundown. I can't put up more than two HF antennae on the TX-455. so even though I'd love a beam for 17 I have to compromise.

If i was really ambitious I would put up 5 elements for 10 and 15 for the peak and then take those down and put up the Syyhawk and 40 meter beam when the cycle heads down. I am trying to get away from traps as I have burned out two in one year since I added the Alpha 8410.

Rich, there seems to be a contradiction between your prediction and the seemingly inordinate planning for 17 meters.  I read your last post a couple times but it seems full of contradictions. I think you are spending way too much time planning for 17.  If this cycle is as good as you predict you will be spending the bulk of your time on 10 and 15 with the rest of us. I would've built a dual-bander for 17 and 12. I recently read an old QST article that laid out plans for a very compact 2 element 12 and 17 meter beam that would've fit nicely on your mast you have the 17 on.


« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 12:42:00 AM by NU1O » Logged

« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2012, 03:37:06 AM »

NU1O: Yes, I see your point. Basically, I think we will see conditions like late last fall where 10 and 12 are open several times over the next year and a half, but not as much as 20, 17 and 15. In the first half of this year, 17M seems to be the "benchmark" of where I have been working ATNO's - so since 12 and 10M haven't been open much at all this year, 17M has been really great. I expect that to be a sort of "baseline" over the next couple of years - and maybe beyond. I do need to pay attention to 15M as well.

But because my main goal is to work 3 ATNO's to get to HR, when I run VOACAP for the three entities that are either on the air from a fixed location (SV2ASP) or others that are planned (ZL9 and VK0/H), 20 and 17M are by far the two bands where there will be openings that I can work. I have used VOACAP and HFTA to analyze where I have most leverage to work these ATNO's - so having 5 dBd gain on 20M and 17M is my strategy. Most of this comes from when these are on the air - and what bands they will be available to me on the West Coast. VOACAP has been very accurate for me - accurate enough to make antenna bets based on small lot constraints. I have two separate tubular towers though - but stacking is out of the question.

Since I have the A3, I also have half way decent gain on 15 and 10 - so I am ready. I had a nested Moxon on 17/12M, but made the decision to swap it out for the 3 element 17M yagi - and pick up 2 dBd gain for 17M and accept a rotatable dipole for 12M.

I am planning on burning a trap out on the A3S some day - and have looked into re-building them - its not difficult. Of course, if you are running 1500 watts, then that might not be an option - since you might keep burning the trap out - even if you build it / them up.

I have enough aluminum to take the A3S and convert it to a 4 or 5 element 20M yagi - which I will do in 2015 or so. I plan on having HR by then, and will be working on HR #1.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 03:42:55 AM by KY6R » Logged

Posts: 1209


« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2012, 01:19:05 PM »

I think the similarities between cycles are more than coincidence. I think you can probably find one or more cycles that look very similar to But if I were a betting man, I would bet that starting within weeks we will ascend up to the first "highest" peak of Cycle 24 and stay above where we are at today until the end of 2013.

I doubt this really matters ..... Dec 21, 2012 is just around the corner, but I can now go out smiling as I got my WAZ certificate in the mail today Grin   Only a couple things left to complete before Dec and I doubt I'll make it. These include but not limited to .....

Top of the Honor Roll - no way
5BDXCC - possible but highly unprobable
160M DXCC - got a ways to go with only 3 on that band Sad

Gene W5DQ

Gene W5DQ
Ridgecrest, CA - DM15dp

Posts: 5080

« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2012, 10:37:58 AM »

I doubt this really matters ..... Dec 21, 2012 is just around the corner, but I can now go out smiling
Top of the Honor Roll - no way
5BDXCC - possible but highly unprobable
160M DXCC - got a ways to go with only 3 on that band Sad
Gene W5DQ

We could petition the ARRL to upgrade the LoTW servers.  I figure that the DX should be real good for the early part of Dec 21 and unfortunately tapper off a lot by the end of the day Grin  If we have dxpeditions out there ready to go and the Lotw is working fast,  many of us could be on the honor role by Midday Cheesy and the bonus is you could brag about it for a full 2 hours.

“A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”  (Mark Twain)
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