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Author Topic: ODDS on QSO with ZL9HR  (Read 10710 times)
WG5G
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Posts: 150




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« Reply #105 on: December 12, 2012, 05:50:01 PM »

Congrats Don, ZL9HR was a tuff one to work qrp, Larry NU4I shows up in their log 3 times, last time was on 12 mtrs near the end of the operation, it certainly cudnt hurt to email the real NU4I & see if he is claiming these 3 qsos, I bet that 12 mtr contact is you, please give it a shot, GL, Dan WG5G.
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NU4B
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« Reply #106 on: December 12, 2012, 06:02:27 PM »

Are you kidding me? Its just not that far from the South Island. I honestly had no doubt I would work this place - and that may have been my biggest mistake.


That's why I only put my odds at 51% and I'm running a Yagi at 55 feet and 1500 Watts.  I've been in the hobby too long and I've seen too many strange things. With your QRP station I would've put your odds at maybe 10% to 20% but with a huge standard deviation.

On Monday morning (14:09 UTC) I worked XV1X long path on 10 meters and he was 599. Either he  himself or somebody in Europe spotted him today stating he was calling North America.  Conditions were actually a little better than Monday if one goes strictly by the numbers but there was no opening this morning to XV1X and very few stations on although many beacons could be heard. That's typical of 10 meters. In a week or so Europe will be back - for awhile.

Somebody said it well:  throw out those propagation charts and listen, listen, listen. They are based on probability and if you want to work something different it will typically be an aberration and will not show up on those propagation charts. I have a lot of QSOs at the end of the year but many come from contests.  On an average day I do far more listening than transmitting.  Actually, although I had the rig on yesterday and today, I didn't make one contact because nothing interesting was on while I was listening.

73,

Chris/NU1O

Hey Chris,
 I would have put your odds over 95%.  Grin In fact I heard you bust through 1 pile up - I think 15M but I'm not sure. For me that path is too good for low odds. Unless its a polar path, if I can hear them chances are I can work them. Especially with no competition, which I had several times. BUT there's always those times. Now if I had your Skyhawk - I'd be in business!  Grin
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NU4B
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« Reply #107 on: December 12, 2012, 06:23:43 PM »

Congrats Don, ZL9HR was a tuff one to work qrp, Larry NU4I shows up in their log 3 times, last time was on 12 mtrs near the end of the operation, it certainly cudnt hurt to email the real NU4I & see if he is claiming these 3 qsos, I bet that 12 mtr contact is you, please give it a shot, GL, Dan WG5G.

Hey Dan,
 I would except the op clearly said "NIL". I'm sure it was the real NU4I. It didn't happen. So there's no reason to force it. You had to be there. (Unfortunately I was -  Grin ) In any case this is one I didn't feel it was a legit QSO. I'd feel guilty claiming it.

Maybe, the next one will be relatively sooner than relatively later. There were only 15,000 uniques, that's not a whole lot. In the meantime there's antennas to build and many other new ones to work.
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NU1O
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Posts: 2692




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« Reply #108 on: December 12, 2012, 07:49:27 PM »

Hey Chris,
 I would have put your odds over 95%.  Grin In fact I heard you bust through 1 pile up - I think 15M but I'm not sure. For me that path is too good for low odds. Unless its a polar path, if I can hear them chances are I can work them. Especially with no competition, which I had several times. BUT there's always those times. Now if I had your Skyhawk - I'd be in business!  Grin

I know how easy it is to work the South Island of New Zealand and in my gut I felt certain I'd work them but, as I previously wrote in another post I am a gambler and most of us are superstitious.  If I were putting out actual odds and making book with my own money, I obviously would not have used 51%.  N2RJ listed his odds at 100%. Can you imagine how I'd have felt if I put my odds at 100% and then laid a goose egg? I wouldn't have been able to login for months because I'd have felt like a fool.  Wink

So, due to not wanting to brag by listing my odds at 100%, not wanting to jinx myself, and knowing all too well that strange things can happen on HF paths, or expeditions to islands, I lowered my odds to 51% even though I was almost certain I would work them.

10 meters really proved to be difficult due to the dive in solar activity but they were strong on reliable 20 meters where I worked them on CW and phone (I don't bother with RTTY). 15 was more reliable than 10 but not as strong as past expeditions to the Pacific.

I really don't know how you have the patience to work QRP.  That would literally drive me nuts. Life really is too short for QRP, IMO.   Cheesy  Perhaps if I work them all I might take up QRP but absent that, no thanks!

73,

Chris/NU1O
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 07:53:11 PM by NU1O » Logged
W2IRT
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« Reply #109 on: December 13, 2012, 06:37:13 AM »

I agreed with Ryan (N2RJ) and his 100% comment, and deep down I knew I'd have the same success or better. He's not too far from me, has a MonstIR 4-element SteppIR antenna 75' AGL and about 850' above sea level, with a clean takeoff angle to the southwest. I'm considerably lower as far as ASL elevation is concerned and my antennas aren't as good as his on all bands (he beats me clean on 40 and WARC; we're even on the real bands). He has far less bum-in-chair availability as I do, however. I never say 100% for myself cuz frankly you never know what will happen. The DX could go QRV and their generators explode after the first Q or storms take out all their aluminium the first night, etc.
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N2RJ
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« Reply #110 on: December 13, 2012, 07:56:56 AM »

In the end it was about kicking my butt to get at least one in the log... Had I not set myself the expectation I'd be more inclined to just say "eff it" and not even turn on the rig at all.

As for my BIC time, that's somewhat accurate. Actually my BIC problem isn't so much the amount, but rather when I can get my butt in the chair... I'm home after dark most winter nights, and usually the high bands are closed by then. Between a grueling day job, commute, daycare run and taking care of stuff when I get home, it's a wonder I can even get in the chair at all.
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