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Author Topic: ODDS on QSO with ZL9HR  (Read 9315 times)
KF6ABU
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Posts: 351




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« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2012, 04:56:23 PM »

I think 100% for 4 bands.
95% for 5 bands, 2 modes each band.
90% for 5 bands, 3 modes per band.
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AB8MA
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Posts: 738




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« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2012, 05:36:57 PM »

I got the number 23 on the latest PowerBall drawing. So, I used it all up.

I will be interested to see if I can eben hear them. If so, the odds improve greatly. Like buying that single lottery ticket.

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W2IRT
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« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2012, 05:47:01 PM »

My best band to the South Pacific (VK-ZL etc) is 40m at about my local sunrise. (12utc)
At that time, they will be on the boat asleep.

I'm betting that they'll be booming into the east coast on both 20 and 40 between 2 and 5am Eastern, after which their quiet hours come into play. I'd say 10, 12 and 15 should be fairly easy for the east coast after supper, but the pileups will also be frakkin' insane. Unless they have severe antenna or radio issues I suspect most of the average and above-average stations on the U.S. East Coast will get a couple of Qs out of them at the very least. A good gauge for me is ZL's South Island, and I've worked countless ZL3 and ZL4 stations with big signals. Even in CQWW they were pretty easy to hear. Now, of course, a DXpedition won't have the towers and yagis of a contest station, but the propagation should still make it fairly easy on the upper and mid bands.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2012, 05:50:06 PM by W2IRT » Logged

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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll.
W6GX
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« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2012, 09:28:23 PM »

Have they departed from the port yet?  I didn't see any updates today.  I'm getting more worried and antsy by the minute.

73,
Jonathan W6GX
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KY6R
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« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2012, 04:24:35 AM »

Have they departed from the port yet?  I didn't see any updates today.  I'm getting more worried and antsy by the minute.

73,
Jonathan W6GX

The consensus amongst a few of us pilots is that they would have communicated that they were still stuck in port and shelter at Stewart Island if they couldn't leave as they wanted to yesterday.

My gut feeling is that they are on their way - but we have had no communication from the team since they were sheltering in the port at Stewart.

One thing that has been made abundantly clear to me - looking at the WX stats that Gavin and Col have posted is that ANY DX-pedition that crosses the "Roaring 40's" is actually a very dangerous and dicey proposition. I am a sea kayaker and can't even imagine being in a bigger vessel in 11 meter waves with gale warnings - that's really nuts!

It has only increased my respect for these brave souls and even made me wonder why we go to such lengths to activate these kinds of places.

It all ends up with respect and reverence for people who take on these journeys.
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K3STX
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« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2012, 05:23:00 AM »

Jeez, some of you East coast guys are such pessimists! I am in MD, and I am giving my dipoles and my 400 watts 95% chance for my ATNO! It will be a huge DXpedition with experienced ops, for crying out loud! It's not like they don't KNOW that East coast USA will be begging for them. We'll get our chance. 2am-5am on 40 would be best for me; my best antenna is on 40. 5am in MD is 2am in CA,  we'll get 'em while you left coasters are sleeping.

paul
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KY6R
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« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2012, 05:27:50 AM »

5am in MD is 2am in CA,  we'll get 'em while you left coasters are sleeping.

paul

Great strategy. Here's another "trick":

Look at the propagation predictions that K3EL and I have linked on the ZL9HR web site. Don't just look at what propagation looks like for YOUR area - but when your competitors will NOT have propagation.

If you find a "hole" where your competition is "blacked out" on a band or bands - and you have decent propagation - then you will have a much higher chance of working them.

I am going to do this with the competition from JA / Asia.
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KB2FCV
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2012, 06:12:17 AM »

I find 40/30m in the wee hours of the morning are the best times for me to hear that part of the world. I'm hoping they'll be on those bands at that hour.

It was mentioned in this thread that we might hope they limit QSO's to 1-2 per station so that everyone gets a chance at getting a new one. Just curious, has a dxpedition ever asked/enforced that?
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N2RJ
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« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2012, 06:29:52 AM »

OK well given that they will get on the island, I'm fairly certain I can at least get them for ATNO.

Of course if they never make it, all bets are off.



You are already hedging your bets.  Are you having second thoughts about that 100% prediction?   Grin

73,

Chris/NU1O

Only if they don't make it.
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NI0C
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Posts: 2391




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« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2012, 06:31:43 AM »

By all means check propagation data to plan your operating strategy.  Beyond that, though, have confidence in your station and operating ability to make a QSO.  Listen well and get beyond those bound by the information provided by clusters, skimmers, etc.  
73,
Chuck  NI0C  
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W2IRT
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« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2012, 07:02:03 AM »

Great strategy. Here's another "trick":
Don't just look at what propagation looks like for YOUR area - but when your competitors will NOT have propagation.

Shhhhhh! Don't go giving away my secrets!!!!   Grin Grin Grin Shocked

I use the ARRL Antenna Book's propagation tables to do precisely that and they've never let me down.

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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll.
N2RJ
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« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2012, 07:42:18 AM »

Boy, all my secrets are being exposed today!  Roll Eyes
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KY6R
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« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2012, 08:05:01 AM »

Great strategy. Here's another "trick":
Don't just look at what propagation looks like for YOUR area - but when your competitors will NOT have propagation.

Shhhhhh! Don't go giving away my secrets!!!!   Grin Grin Grin Shocked

I use the ARRL Antenna Book's propagation tables to do precisely that and they've never let me down.



Limit your competition via "natural selection".

And make sure your antennas are better than others that are in that "naturally selected" area that you are competing against.

Finally - if you can't hear them - make sure you re-build your antenna farm adding 2 dBd gain and drop the takeoff angle by a couple of degrees. Worry more about Signal to Noise ratio than Front to Back. Front to Back is the next thing to worry about.

And make sure you are an EXPERT at working split and tracking how the DX runs the pileups and where they will be next.

That's it. KY6R's Guide to WINNING! (Which I am sure I learned from Bob Lochers book . . . )

Here's the thing. If everyone did this - the pileups would become more orderly and there would be no frustration. There would actually be a LOT less competition - you'd just wait your turn. It would be more like Christmas Shopping online than going to the Mall and getting into a fist fight buying naughty skivvies at Victoria's Secret (cymbal crash!).

Some people like fights and doing things the hard way I guess . . . . missing a few choice DX-peds was the best thing that ever happened to me - motivated me to stop trying to roll a boulder up a hill . . .

Metaphorically speaking of course . . .
« Last Edit: November 30, 2012, 08:14:44 AM by KY6R » Logged
K3STX
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« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2012, 08:18:48 AM »

Maybe I missed this. I read they are not permitted to stay "overnight" on the island. Presumably that means they will not operate during their "overnight" hours, does anyone know what the OFF THE AIR hours are in UTC?

paul
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N5UD
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Posts: 798




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« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2012, 08:26:36 AM »

From KY6R website, off time is 0800Z.
I forgot back on air time. I assume their sunrise. 1630Z ?

This will be tough IMHO because of QRM/pileups.
Well tough for us modest stations.

Tony N5UD /M in Texas
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