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Author Topic: ODDS on QSO with ZL9HR  (Read 9082 times)
AF3Y
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Posts: 3700




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« on: November 29, 2012, 12:33:44 PM »

When they get there and get fully operational, I am putting MY odds for at least one QSO to be
around 30%, if I can hear them of course. (also assuming at least 7 days of operation. Any less,
and the odds drop like a rock.)

Thats with a 1/4 wave wire vertical and 1KW QRO.

How do you feel about YOUR odds of getting this rare one?  Huh

73, GL to all who need this one, Gene AF3Y
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N2RJ
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Posts: 1155




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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2012, 12:41:03 PM »

Probably 100% on at least one band/mode.
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KB3LIX
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Posts: 1101




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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2012, 12:56:55 PM »

Much worse than yours Gene.

10% if I am DAMN LUCKY !

VOACAP agrees with my prognosis.

100 watts and either a 4BTV or a chunk of zip cord
makes things difficult, PLUS
I am fighting a 300+ foot ridge just west of me.

The South Pacific is WSW of me.

All of the Pacific is difficult from here.
Now if I was ON TOP of that RIDGE, things
would be a boatload better.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2012, 01:02:16 PM by KB3LIX » Logged
NU1O
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Posts: 2612




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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2012, 01:03:47 PM »

Although I feel I have sufficient equipment to work them I would never list my odds at 100%, or certain.  Firstly, I'm a gambler and most of us are superstitious (whether we all admit it or not is another story) therefore I'm afraid I'd jinx myself, and secondly, anything can happen on the short wave bands or with their trip, especially when you are dealing with rough seas and a boat.

I'll say 51% and leave it at that.

73,

Chris/NU1O
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N2RJ
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Posts: 1155




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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2012, 01:18:39 PM »

OK well given that they will get on the island, I'm fairly certain I can at least get them for ATNO.

Of course if they never make it, all bets are off.

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K7KB
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Posts: 605




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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2012, 01:20:50 PM »

I always try to believe I'm going to get a QSO, unless I don't get a QSO Smiley There are not too many DX'peditions that have come up in the last couple of years that I haven't been able to work. And at least on one of those (VU7), not even the local big guns with the monobander's could work that one.

So unless I have a major catastrophe, I would say my odds are pretty damn good Smiley

John K7KB
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NU1O
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Posts: 2612




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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2012, 01:28:11 PM »

OK well given that they will get on the island, I'm fairly certain I can at least get them for ATNO.

Of course if they never make it, all bets are off.



You are already hedging your bets.  Are you having second thoughts about that 100% prediction?   Grin

73,

Chris/NU1O
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N6PSE
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Posts: 509


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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2012, 02:20:35 PM »

ZL9HR will be easy from the West Coast and I imagine quite a challenge on the East Coast for the smaller stations.  I hope their leader will follow the propagation and ask everyone to stand by for the East Coast.  I also hope they disable the Leaderboard and ask everyone to make only 1-2 contacts so that everyone has a chance to work this shortened DXpedition.

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W6GX
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Posts: 2343




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« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2012, 03:32:26 PM »

One thing I did notice is that band condition has been dismal the last few days.  I hope things will improve just in time when they go QRV.

73,
Jonathan W6GX
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AF5C
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Posts: 123




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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2012, 03:43:52 PM »

I figure my odds are 50%-either I work them or I don't

John AF5CC
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KB3LIX
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Posts: 1101




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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2012, 03:44:17 PM »

I may have been a bit too optimistic with 10%
I forgot about the limitation they have about being
on the island during darkness.
My best band to the South Pacific (VK-ZL etc)
is 40m at about my local sunrise. (12utc)
At that time, they will be on the boat asleep.

That not to say the higher bands may open up,
but during the recent contests, I have not heard
VK-ZL etc on the higher bands, only 40m.

Only time will tell.

R A T Z

Lets drop to maybe 2-3 %
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KY6R
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Posts: 3133


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« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2012, 03:52:34 PM »

Exactly 2 dBd better than it was before I replaced my entire high band antenna farm this past month. And this is on all bands from 20 - 10M. I used the VOACAP plots on http://ky6r.wordpress.com as well as on the ZL9HR web site, HFTA, EZnec and this past weekends CQ WW contest to test all of this.

I tested for days on air with ZM1A and ZM4T, ZL's and VK's. I am very encouraged.

So the way I feel is that I have studied the best I can before a final exam, and now its time for the test. What happens at the ZL9HR as far as antenna placement, hills in the way, etc is beyond "the sphere of my control".

I agree 100% with Paul, N6PSE, and have forwarded those suggestions to the team. This should help us all with our probabilities.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2012, 03:55:46 PM by KY6R » Logged
N1UK
Member

Posts: 1390




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« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2012, 03:54:19 PM »

I don't think not being on the island at night is going to be an issue for us. We aren't going to work them on the low bands. The higher bands are our best hope. With good prop we might just be in luck.

I am looking for one qso if possible and will be very pleased with that.


Mark N1UK

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W4VKU
Member

Posts: 342




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« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2012, 04:18:17 PM »

We say 51% and the rest of it is a toss up. Anything can go wrong.
There are no guarantees in life. Smiley

Btw, with the last VU7, the conditions were not that good. However, i knew of folks
in the east coast that worked VU7 with a high dipole at 90ft. I was not lucky enough
to work them on my return, with my dipole at 65ft and still need VU7 for an ATNO.

Krish
w4vku
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N8XI
Member

Posts: 121




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« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2012, 04:24:24 PM »

Hmm their website says LP favors NA and EU.
A program I have says LP=15,762 Miles and SP=9140 Miles.

I might be 6622 Miles out of the running  Sad
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