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Author Topic: Will There Be More Peaks in Cycle 24?  (Read 4991 times)
KY6R
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« on: December 28, 2012, 04:48:48 AM »

You probably have seen this (their January 28, 2012 issue):

http://spaceweather.com/

or this (he has two really great charts on his blog - the cycle comparison as well as the "pole switch"):

http://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/solar-cycle-24-is-underperforming-its-predecessors/

So - the two big questions I have are:

1) Any more peaks like a year ago - which was 6 weeks of awesome conditions on 10 and 12M (and other bands too), and,

2) Why no announced DX-peditions for 2013 (yet)? All of the rumors I have heard seem to now be pushed out to 2014 . . . but I still expect between 1 - 3 really rare activations in 2013. I would bet more than that in 2014 - starting off with Heard Island, which should be a very serious "crowning achievement". From what I know, 2014 will be another banner year as far as really rare one's go - along the lines of 2012.

These really rare dx-peditions just take a hell of a lot more planning . . . . patience is a requirement.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 04:51:08 AM by KY6R » Logged
NU1O
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2012, 05:45:11 AM »

You probably have seen this (their January 28, 2012 issue):

http://spaceweather.com/


As I stated months ago, when you had two charts side-by-side and were predicting a bunch of solar activity because chart A looked like B, I don't think it's possible to predict these things, but I would not be very surprised if last fall's peak turns out to be the peak for the cycle. It is starting to look more and more like that will be the case.

73,

Chris/NU1O
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K3NRX
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2012, 05:50:01 AM »

You probably have seen this (their January 28, 2012 issue):

http://spaceweather.com/


As I stated months ago, when you had two charts side-by-side and were predicting a bunch of solar activity because chart A looked like B, I don't think it's possible to predict these things, but I would not be very surprised if last fall's peak turns out to be the peak for the cycle. It is starting to look more and more like that will be the case.

What he said.  This cycle SUCKS eggs!...compared to the last two anyway....

V
KA3NRX

73,

Chris/NU1O
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NK7Z
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2012, 05:55:21 AM »

You probably have seen this (their January 28, 2012 issue):

http://spaceweather.com/


As I stated months ago, when you had two charts side-by-side and were predicting a bunch of solar activity because chart A looked like B, I don't think it's possible to predict these things, but I would not be very surprised if last fall's peak turns out to be the peak for the cycle. It is starting to look more and more like that will be the case.

73,

Chris/NU1O

Party Pooper...  I fear you are correct...  I expect we have seen the best of 24 so far already...
73's
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Thanks,
Dave
For reviews and setups see: http://www.nk7z.net
NU1O
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2012, 06:02:23 AM »

Party Pooper...  I fear you are correct...  I expect we have seen the best of 24 so far already...
73's


I didn't mean to be a Party Pooper but I was doing my Jack Webb imitation. Just the facts, just the facts.  Wink

73,

Chris/NU1O
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KY6R
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2012, 06:02:50 AM »

I had an absolute banner year in 2012 DX wise despite the "solar numbers". But yes - I agree, compared to the peak(s) of the last cycle - so far, this one is "anemic". Even weaker than predicted.

Personally, I think there will be another spike like a year ago. But that lasted only about 6 weeks.

From my memory of the second peak of the last cycle, the years following the peak were especially good for 30M and 40M, so I do look forward to that. In fact, I worked as much rare DX on these bands as I did on 20M and above during the peak.

I will become a 20, 40 and 160M fanatic after 2013 . . . . when I can re-build my antenna farm (yet again). I have the aluminum and coils needed to do something decent on my small lot.

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N3QE
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2012, 06:06:13 AM »

There is no indication that low cycles are short cycles, are there? We still have 2 to 3 years left in this peak, many opportunities for it to pick up and make 10M active again.

It'd be easy to be pessimistic because of the low sunspot numbers in the past month but 10M and 12M were quite usable and productive in November, just a month ago. I got at least one "new one" on 12M in the past month too. And while none of the openings on 10M in the ARRL 10 were ones that could be foretold by VOACAP et al... I am beginning to learn that 10M is full of surprises if folks would try pointing their antennas in different directions :-). There was an astonishingly good opening to the far east, both mornings on 10M.

And on DXpeditions in 2013, I'm fully sure there will be some surprise announcements coming out, just like in 2012.
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W2LO
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2012, 06:12:58 AM »

 This is by far the worst cycle that I have experienced in over 50 years; its so-called brief "peaks" would have been just fair conditions in any other cycle. Real peaks with loud QRP high band signals day after day for weeks on end from all over the world have been essentially non-existent.

 There's no doubt in my mind that the best is behind us but I hope that I'm wrong.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 06:57:06 AM by W2LO » Logged
NU1O
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2012, 06:23:20 AM »


It'd be easy to be pessimistic because of the low sunspot numbers in the past month but 10M and 12M were quite usable and productive in November, just a month ago.


On Wednesday I heard a station in CT working some Europeans on CW but the phone section of the band was absolutely quiet. I put out a CQ DX call on 28.490 and I ran Europeans for an hour straight. Most were S7 and stronger and one German station was 30 over S9.  I could've easily worked the pileup for another hour but I needed something to drink and when I went back to the band it had closed to Europe.

10 meters is open to some area most everyday.  Just get on and call CQ and you maybe very surprised with who comes back to you.

Also, do not ignore the long path openings despite the low SFI.  I worked Vietnam LP a few weeks ago and on Wednesday there was an Asian station working the US LP but he was mainly worked by stations in the Southern US but as far North as NC.


73,

Chris/NU1O
« Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 06:30:48 AM by NU1O » Logged
KY6R
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2012, 06:30:15 AM »

I worked V5/DL3DXX a couple days ago on 10M - very easily, and Namibia on 10M from the West Coast is really good DX. My home brewed 2 element yagi was pointed toward the Long Path too. He was the only CW signal on the band at the time.
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K9NW
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2012, 06:53:36 AM »

2) Why no announced DX-peditions for 2013 (yet)?


DXpeditions often happen when they happen, especially those to places that might be in the Top 25 or so.  Permissions may be long in coming but when they do come, one says "Thank You.  Let's go!", not "Thank You.  Now let's see if we can maybe push this back a year or two."  (Obviously, this assumes many logistical details are already in place.)
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W1VT
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2012, 06:59:50 AM »

Why would one wait considering the accuracy of long term forecasts?
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KY6R
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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2012, 07:02:07 AM »

Permissions may be long in coming but when they do come, one says "Thank You.  Let's go!", not "Thank You.  Now let's see if we can maybe push this back a year or two."  

Good point - although one DX-pedition leader told me they like to announce far enough in advance to generate as many up front donations as they can.

But only two of the 6 ATNO's I worked in 2012 had a lead of 6 months or more as far as announcement was concerned (HK0NA and ZL9HR). 3 were single op DX-peds and one was "at home".
« Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 07:06:05 AM by KY6R » Logged
WS3N
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« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2012, 08:12:22 AM »

I put out a CQ DX call on 28.490 and I ran Europeans for an hour straight.

Forget the mysteries of the solar cycle. The real puzzle is why Europeans will stand in line to work an average station in NE CONUS.  Cheesy
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K0YQ
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2012, 08:41:55 AM »

I worked V5/DL3DXX a couple days ago on 10M - very easily, and Namibia on 10M from the West Coast is really good DX.

Some days I leave my rigged parked on 28076 monitoring the JT65 signals, and almost daily the band opens to southern Africa, even on my pathetic antenna.

My guess is that this solar cycle has already peaked, but who knows.  And if it has I can't wait to see Rich's stacked 160M beams he's going to build!
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