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Author Topic: Will There Be More Peaks in Cycle 24?  (Read 5031 times)
NU1O
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Posts: 2592




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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2012, 09:10:16 AM »

I put out a CQ DX call on 28.490 and I ran Europeans for an hour straight.

Forget the mysteries of the solar cycle. The real puzzle is why Europeans will stand in line to work an average station in NE CONUS.  Cheesy

I have wondered the same thing but your question applies both ways since many US stations will stand in line to work common European countries.

I've come up with the following answers.


1) I am putting a strong signal into Europe, and although not as strong as a contest station or a big DX station with an array, when there are not many signals coming out of the US it is strong enough to generate interest.

2) Once a few stations start calling others jump in to see how they compare. IOW, a small pileup eventually generates a larger pileup. The "snowball effect."

3) I have worked many of the stations before, either on 10 meters or other bands. Stations like to touch base every so often.

4) I think many of the stations are limited to 10 meters only. The lot sizes in Europe are often smaller than the lots here in the North East, and some stations can only erect their antennas a few meters above the roof line. I work many stations running very simple antennas with 100 Watts and under. Although I did not work any the other day, I often work a lot of mobiles on 10 meters.

5) Working any signal across the pond is better than working nothing at all.

6) it is more common than you may think. I have a friend who mostly operates on 20 meters and although my limit at the microphone is about an hour, he calls CQ DX mostly everyday and he answers common European countries for hour on end.  He is not a Dxer. He doesn't use a PC for spots or logging purposes. He is just perfectly content to work the same countries day-in and day-out, and those working him are obviously content to work a highly populated North Eastern state, day-in and day-out.

73,

Chris/NU1O
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W1VT
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Posts: 809




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« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2012, 09:54:04 AM »

Not many stations call CQ and run DX stations--when someone does so it is a great opportunity for the smaller stations to make contacts.  When I was working a bunch of Europeans to get 100 on 17M I worked at least two QRP stations, as well as few who were even weaker.
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N6ORB
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Posts: 242




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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2012, 10:35:52 AM »

I guess the guys at Radio Arcala, OH8X, saw this puny solar cycle coming before the rest of us did.

http://www.radioarcala.com/nbspStation/TowersandAntennas/Tower7/tabid/358/Default.aspx

Be sure to scroll down.

Dave, N6ORB
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KY6R
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Posts: 3133


WWW

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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2012, 11:22:43 AM »

I guess the guys at Radio Arcala, OH8X, saw this puny solar cycle coming before the rest of us did.

http://www.radioarcala.com/nbspStation/TowersandAntennas/Tower7/tabid/358/Default.aspx

Be sure to scroll down.

Dave, N6ORB


P'shaw, Radio Arcala only wishes they had one of these baby's:

http://www.hy-gain.com/Product.php?productid=AV-18HTJR

(click on the picture to see the future of what we will be using soon - as Cycle 24 bottoms out) . . . .
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KD8MJR
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Posts: 2044




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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2012, 01:20:31 PM »

It's a crying shame about cycle 24!
I know some guys are up their in age and waiting for 25 might be very hard if not impossible.  It really would have been nice if we even got 6 months of really good propagation but alas that seems almost impossible at this point.
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K3VAT
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Posts: 700




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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2012, 02:44:52 PM »


So - the two big questions I have are:

1) Any more peaks like a year ago - which was 6 weeks of awesome conditions on 10 and 12M (and other bands too), and,


"Short term" peaks and excursions that occur within the much longer interval for natural phenomena like sunspot cycles are the data point variance.  The trend is determined on a longer scale than these short term peaks and excursions, often in months and years.

The trend for sunspots and hence for increase in usable MUFs (like 12M and 10M, and even 6M) is still on the way up, predicted to peak - depending on who you believe - sometime mid-2013.  The variance over the past number of the years, and the expected value variance will be, to quote an economics term, volatile.  So these swings in high sunspot numbers (like someone pointed out) then low numbers are NOT out of the ordinary - they're just the normal swings of natural phenomena.

Bottom line: don't fret too much about recent poor sunspot numbers - we'll get many more opportunities for high band openings later this winter and throughout spring.  Summer may even bring some awesome F[2] openings on 6M.



GL, HNY, Rich, K3VAT
« Last Edit: December 28, 2012, 02:47:25 PM by K3VAT » Logged
KD8SAV
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Posts: 4




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« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2013, 11:42:11 PM »

We are in an increase in the sunspots right now. It's at 196, and has been for a couple of weeks now.

I'm looking forward to the next couple of contests this year if this holds up.
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WS4T
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Posts: 179




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« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2013, 12:25:17 AM »

And if it has I can't wait to see Rich's stacked 160M beams he's going to build!

Rich doesn't want to spill the beams yet, but I've got a distant cousin who works in the Orinda permit department and she gave me the head's up. Here's a hint: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCZcjqltJVA
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KY6R
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Posts: 3133


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« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2013, 04:44:37 AM »

And if it has I can't wait to see Rich's stacked 160M beams he's going to build!

Rich doesn't want to spill the beams yet, but I've got a distant cousin who works in the Orinda permit department and she gave me the head's up. Here's a hint: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCZcjqltJVA

Shhhhhhhhhhh! Its a secret! The Craftsman Drill Press and Pop Riveter are all lined up and ready to go!

I need to make good friends with your distant cousin  Grin
« Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 04:51:42 AM by KY6R » Logged
W1VT
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Posts: 809




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« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2013, 07:41:07 AM »

Figures--I just spend two days putting up an 80 meter vertical in the snow.  Now the sunspots come back.  Cheesy
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AF3Y
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Posts: 3695




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« Reply #25 on: January 08, 2013, 09:32:46 AM »

Figures--I just spend two days putting up an 80 meter vertical in the snow.  Now the sunspots come back.  Cheesy

SNOW???  What's that? Roll Eyes  Oh, you mean that cold, white frozen rain?  I see some on TV every now and then.  I dont think I want any. hi hi
73, Gene AF3Y Cool
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WS3N
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Posts: 648




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« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2013, 10:52:07 AM »

I would gladly trade some snow for days when both the temperature and humidity are in the 90s. Growing up in PA, that was called a heat wave, and it ended after a week. Here it's the standard weather from June through September.
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KB3LIX
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Posts: 1096




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« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2013, 11:12:53 AM »

The SFI is at 150 and SN is at 196.
A quick spin iof the dial on 10m reveals...NOTHING !
No beacons either.

Even the chickenband is quiet.
(I keep one programmed "channel" 27.025, the BOWL setup)
I use the BOWL to check for propagation.

If I hear the chickens, I know that 10 meters might be open.
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AF3Y
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Posts: 3695




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« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2013, 01:00:13 PM »

I would gladly trade some snow for days when both the temperature and humidity are in the 90s. Growing up in PA, that was called a heat wave, and it ended after a week. Here it's the standard weather from June through September.


Yep....... 80o days and 65o nites forecast for the next week. (Just another week
in paradise Cool)  But the 98o days and 80o nites dont bother me much either. Just stay
in the pool or at the beach Cheesy.

Only thing is if walking around at nite in an unlit area, in the summer, you
have to be careful of ol Jake the Snake laying around.  Now that the damned Pythons are
slowly coming north from the Glades, I will be even more careful. I am NOT wanting to walk
up on a 15 foot snake Shocked, without my 12 gauge......

73, Gene AF3Y
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WS4T
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Posts: 179




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« Reply #29 on: January 08, 2013, 01:27:29 PM »

On a more serious note (Rich's original question about more peaks in Cycle 24), I've been thinking lately about these two charts:

Comparison of various cycles with Cycle 24: http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Chart of just Cycle 14: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl14.html

Seems to me that in Cycle 14, there was a first major peak in February 1905. This was followed by five more major peaks, with the last occurring in August 1908. So there were major peaks occurring over a span of 3.5 years. Extrapolating to Cycle 24 and putting the first major peak at October 2011, that would keep us going somewhat until April 2015.

I know I'm probably wrong, but I'm trying to find something positive to say about Cycle 24.  Angry

Gary, ES1WST
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