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Author Topic: Will There Be More Peaks in Cycle 24?  (Read 5634 times)
KY6R
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« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2013, 01:38:59 PM »

On a more serious note (Rich's original question about more peaks in Cycle 24), I've been thinking lately about these two charts:

Comparison of various cycles with Cycle 24: http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Chart of just Cycle 14: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl14.html

Seems to me that in Cycle 14, there was a first major peak in February 1905. This was followed by five more major peaks, with the last occurring in August 1908. So there were major peaks occurring over a span of 3.5 years. Extrapolating to Cycle 24 and putting the first major peak at October 2011, that would keep us going somewhat until April 2015.

I know I'm probably wrong, but I'm trying to find something positive to say about Cycle 24.  Angry

Gary, ES1WST

I do the same thing - my "predictions and comparisons" have been all "wishful thinking". Just a guessing game while bored and between ATNO's - that's all  Grin

See my blog about this:

http://ky6r.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/solar-cycle-24-and-cycle-10/


I like the joke about Pessimists having a better outcome than optimists. Pessimists don't expect things to go well - so  when they don't they can say "I told you so". When things go right - or better than expected, pessimists then can say "Wow - what a great surprise" . . . .

Chris, NU1O will love this comparison:

http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp2.html
« Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 01:46:35 PM by KY6R » Logged
NU1O
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« Reply #31 on: January 08, 2013, 09:45:54 PM »

Figures--I just spend two days putting up an 80 meter vertical in the snow.  Now the sunspots come back.  Cheesy

SNOW???  What's that? Roll Eyes  Oh, you mean that cold, white frozen rain?  I see some on TV every now and then.  I dont think I want any. hi hi
73, Gene AF3Y Cool

So far it has been a pretty mild winter here in MA. We had a couple of very cold days - meaning 0 F. at dawn - last week but we have not had a lot of snow.  Two years ago the snow was as high as my 6 foot fence and I had to hire somebody to go up on the roof and shovel it off. Rooves were caving in all over New England that winter. I'm sure, Zack, W1VT, remembers that one all too well.

I like to go to Florida during spring training. I get to see some baseball and get away from the lousy winter weather up here, and when I get home spring is just around the corner. I just don't know how you people live there year round. In the summer it is 90 everyday and very humid. To me, that is as bad as our New England winters.  I've always gone to South Florida. I went on spring break to Ft. Lauderdale in Freshmen year and have just kept going year after year. The only bad thing was the NY Yankees used to train there and they stayed two hotels down from where I stayed.

My biggest thrill was sitting by the pool with some college girls from Texas sipping cocktails when a big commotion broke out. It turned out to be Ronald and Nancy Reagan campaigning against Carter. They both looked like movie stars and I did get close enough to shake hands with RWR. I guess that was the spring of 1980. Boy, has time flew by!  That was almost 33 years ago!

73,

Chris/NU1O
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AF3Y
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« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2013, 04:36:06 AM »

Chris...... the 90o days are perfect, if you are near the beach. Makes for really great girl watching Grin.

And speaking from experience (good old Ft. Devens), Mass. can be a bitch. I remember having to dig my car out from my back yard in Ayer, Mass. to get to the base.

I was the idiot driving the 60 Chevy CONVERTIBLE. hi hi

73, Gene AF3Y
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WD4ELG
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« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2013, 06:10:07 AM »

Chris, that's a great story.

Gene, I remember the heat of Florida well.  We got back yesterday from Naples...took the wife down for her birthday for a few days.  It was 84 every day.  Loved it, but honestly...I still remember the 95 every day from June til August here in North Carolina with no rain and very high humidity this year....it was brutal.  Worse than anything I remember in Florida.  Then the rain came and it cooled off the second week in September and we opened the windows here in NC.  So after a week of pleasant reminder in Florida, I was actually glad to get back to cooler weather in NC.  72 this weekend both days, I will take it.  After going to college in CT and living there in the early 80's and through the winters of 93/94 with mind-numbing Siberian cold and a major snowstorm every 3 days, I hope I never see snow again.  At least not for home QTH.  Work may take me there, and that's OK for a reminder.

One thing I do remember about living in Jacksonville.  I only had a dipole at 32 feet and lived on a brackish march, but the prop was pretty incredible.  I remember breaking through some big pileups in 97/98, and the logs reflect that it was good "hunting" there on the coast.

Unfortunately, I missed the first peak of 2000 and some of the good DXpeditions from that time, as I did not get active again until early 2002.
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NU1O
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« Reply #34 on: January 09, 2013, 08:41:21 AM »

Chris...... the 90o days are perfect, if you are near the beach. Makes for really great girl watching Grin.

And speaking from experience (good old Ft. Devens), Mass. can be a bitch. I remember having to dig my car out from my back yard in Ayer, Mass. to get to the base.

I was the idiot driving the 60 Chevy CONVERTIBLE. hi hi

73, Gene AF3Y

Gene, when you saw the leaves falling off the trees didn't you think it might be time to look for a clunker to get you through the winter?  Wink

What about your buddies in the Army Sec. Agency. Didn't one tell you convertibles and New England winters are not typically a good combo?  You must have got a good ribbing if you actually drove the convertible in the middle of winter.

I don't like New England winters any better than hot and humid Florida summers. If I could move, I would. Were I able to move I'd probably opt for one of those islands in the South Pacific.
Tahiti has always had a nice sound to it but it has been spoiled by tourists from what I've heard.

73,

Chris/NU1O
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AF3Y
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« Reply #35 on: January 09, 2013, 09:45:43 AM »


Gene, when you saw the leaves falling off the trees didn't you think it might be time to look for a clunker to get you through the winter?  Wink

What about your buddies in the Army Sec. Agency. Didn't one tell you convertibles and New England winters are not typically a good combo?  You must have got a good ribbing if you actually drove the convertible in the middle of winter.

73,
Chris/NU1O

Oh Yes...  Lotsa wisecracks from the guys, and the wife was not happy with New England winters either. I recall one morning the doorhandles were frozen/iced over, and a push on the button sliced my thumb open. Shocked

Went from there to Two Rock Ranch Station in Petaluma, California. Beautiful and BETTER weather.

I will still take the heat over the cold.

73, Gene AF3Y
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KY6R
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« Reply #36 on: January 09, 2013, 09:51:18 AM »

Went from there to Two Rock Ranch Station in Petaluma, California. Beautiful and BETTER weather.

Escaped the east coast weather in 1982 and never looked back . . . . I kayak in Tomales Bay all the time. Northern California weather is superb - year round. Not too hot, not too cold, low humidity.

Now lets see - what was this thread about?
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NU1O
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« Reply #37 on: January 09, 2013, 10:16:34 AM »

Now lets see - what was this thread about?

It was about predicting solar cycle peaks which can't be done yet, so we may as well have some fun reminiscing about the old days and talk about the the weather. 

Nobody is forcing anybody to read posts they aren't interested in.

73,

Chris/NU1O
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KY6R
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« Reply #38 on: January 09, 2013, 10:21:10 AM »

Now lets see - what was this thread about?

It was about predicting solar cycle peaks which can't be done yet, so we may as well have some fun reminiscing about the old days and talk about the the weather.  

Nobody is forcing anybody to read posts they aren't interested in.

73,

Chris/NU1O

Surely, I jest  Grin
« Last Edit: January 09, 2013, 10:59:15 AM by KY6R » Logged
ONAIR
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« Reply #39 on: January 09, 2013, 12:43:53 PM »

Warm weather is nice, but there is just something about firing up that old rig on a cold winter's night in the middle of a blizzard!  It was even better years ago, when you had the heat from all those glowing tubes to keep you warm.
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AF3Y
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« Reply #40 on: January 09, 2013, 03:01:38 PM »

Now lets see - what was this thread about?

It was about predicting solar cycle peaks which can't be done yet, so we may as well have some fun reminiscing about the old days and talk about the the weather.  

Nobody is forcing anybody to read posts they aren't interested in.

73,

Chris/NU1O

Surely, I jest  Grin

Sorry for hijacking the thread. When you get my age, you tend to think about old times a lot.
I could have said reminisce, but dont know how to spell it. hi

73, Gene AF3Y
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KY6R
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« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2013, 03:24:45 PM »

no problem, my response was a bad attempt at sarcasm - meant as a joke.....
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AB8MA
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« Reply #42 on: January 09, 2013, 03:48:37 PM »

Who is Surely?
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ES1TU
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« Reply #43 on: January 09, 2013, 09:34:46 PM »

http://adok.dyndns.org:8090/sfi?size=800x200&pen=2

I'd say ol' Sol heard the whining here and decided to show some muscle Wink
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KY6R
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« Reply #44 on: January 10, 2013, 03:29:07 AM »

http://adok.dyndns.org:8090/sfi?size=800x200&pen=2

I'd say ol' Sol heard the whining here and decided to show some muscle Wink

NICE!

The death of this cycle and the doomsday agronomists proclaiming that "It has already peaked" might be proved wrong after all.

I still think its fun to try to second guess what will happen - especially when people are bored, waiting for their next ATNO . . .
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