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Author Topic: A depressing forecast/picture  (Read 1738 times)
WD4ELG
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Posts: 875




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« on: February 05, 2013, 12:30:10 PM »

Not that we can do anything about it, but it's not very cheery news regarding the forecast.  Cleary the lower-than-normal predictions appear to be accurate, and the peak will occur later this year.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

What really blows my mind is how fast the first half, since 2009, has passed.  Hard to believe it is already February 2013!  I guess time goes by faster as I get older.  I guess we'll be back in the lull doldrums pretty soon.  Maybe I need to improve my 80 meter antenna instead of worrying about the high bands.
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W2IRT
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2013, 12:56:20 PM »

Maybe I need to improve my 80 meter antenna instead of worrying about the high bands.

Yup. 40, 80 and 160 will be where it's at. I really had fun on Topband during the last (lonnnnnnnnnnnng lulll).
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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll.
KD8MJR
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2013, 01:03:05 PM »

I think Oct-Nov 2011 was the solar peak.   It's been all down hill since then.

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W6GX
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Posts: 2789




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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2013, 01:21:19 PM »

I'm a newbie (licensed in 2009).  Condition is great and I'm loving life!  I worked Reunion Island on 10m today.  I'll take anything that is better than 2009 Smiley

73,
Jonathan W6GX
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NU1O
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Posts: 2692




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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2013, 02:51:04 PM »

I'm a newbie (licensed in 2009).  Condition is great and I'm loving life!  I worked Reunion Island on 10m today.  I'll take anything that is better than 2009 Smiley

73,
Jonathan W6GX

I have noticed an improvement on 10 meters with respect to Africa of late. I think the band is starting to make its seasonal change.

Three weeks ago we had a SFI of about 150 and one can work a lot of DX on the high bands at that level.  That was when we had some nice long path openings to Asia on 10.

As for the predictions, I don't place a lot of stock in them. 

73,

Chris/NU1O
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K3VAT
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Posts: 730




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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2013, 04:16:51 PM »

Not that we can do anything about it, but it's not very cheery news regarding the forecast.  Cleary the lower-than-normal predictions appear to be accurate, and the peak will occur later this year.
... <snip>

Hi Mark,

Thanks, the graphic is very descriptive.  I commented on a few of the subtle points re: the current sunspot cycle in this recent thread: http://www.eham.net/ehamforum/smf/index.php/topic,87168.15.html (see page 2).

As one gets closer to the solar maximum there is more variability in the # of spots - this means that the probability for significant excursions above the mean are greater than for any other time (take a look at the graphic to see what I mean).  It also infers that we could get several months of vastly improved numbers (>150 SFI) around solar max.

Looking at the graphic one could also conclude - "hey, better times are ahead".  Of course only time itself will tell - late next year someone could say, "yea, solar max was in late 2011 - ugh!".  So just hang in there - you'll have lots of good openings this summer, albeit may be short and geo-specific.

73, Rich, K3VAT


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KY6R
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2013, 08:09:16 PM »

I just worked RI1ANF on 160M - pretty darn great DX from the West Coast. I think this ties my VK-ZL distance record on 160M.

I'm addicted. Who needs sunspots?
« Last Edit: February 05, 2013, 08:29:31 PM by KY6R » Logged
WD4ELG
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Posts: 875




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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2013, 08:59:50 PM »

Thanks for the encouragement, fellow hams.  I guess I should not listen to the predictions, and just get on the air.
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KY6R
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2013, 09:09:35 PM »

Last years "numbers" were a joke compared to the peaks of the last cycle, but I worked the last 7 in 2012, and it ended up being the best DX year ever for me. Maybe not in terms of year with most ATNO's - but by far, the year with the most RARE ATNO's.

Sure - I had to have much better antennas than I did back in 2001 - when I started DX-ing, but that's what made all the difference.

Low cycles require better antennas. We are 2 years away from the start of the slide - and it will be a long slow slide - so we probably have 2 - 4 more good years before you really better have a low band strategy . . .

I actually like the low bands way better anyway - so there is always some good DX to be had. 40M saved me from going bonkers during the last low.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2013, 09:14:15 PM by KY6R » Logged
KH6DC
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Posts: 645




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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2013, 09:15:39 PM »

I'm a newbie (licensed in 2009).  Condition is great and I'm loving life!  I worked Reunion Island on 10m today.  I'll take anything that is better than 2009 Smiley

73,
Jonathan W6GX

Welcome to hamming.  I remember in the early '90s you could run a random wire out your window and work the world on 5 watts.

73, Delwyn KH6DC
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73 and Aloha,
de Delwyn, KH6DC
NI0C
Member

Posts: 2408




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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2013, 05:01:34 AM »

Quote from KY6R:
Quote
I just worked RI1ANF on 160M - pretty darn great DX from the West Coast. I think this ties my VK-ZL distance record on 160M.

I'm addicted. Who needs sunspots?


Rich,

I heard both sides of your QSO last night!  Congrats!  I got him a few nights ago-- I had been pursuing him on Top Band since Tim, N3QE, reported working him.  You should get a pretty fast LoTW confirmation.

I'm copying JH2FXK on 160m at my sunrise as I type this.   

73,
Chuck  NI0C
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KY6R
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2013, 05:08:32 AM »

Quote from KY6R:
Quote
I just worked RI1ANF on 160M - pretty darn great DX from the West Coast. I think this ties my VK-ZL distance record on 160M.

I'm addicted. Who needs sunspots?


Rich,

I heard both sides of your QSO last night!  Congrats!  I got him a few nights ago-- I had been pursuing him on Top Band since Tim, N3QE, reported working him.  You should get a pretty fast LoTW confirmation.

I'm copying JH2FXK on 160m at my sunrise as I type this.   

73,
Chuck  NI0C

Excellent. Before I was a ham I was an SWL, and before that a "BCB DX-er". So - to work anything just above the AM band this far away just boggles my mind.

Oleg was an S9 here on my K9AY loops - but on average - about S7. His signal did take some deep fades, but he has amazing ears. I was only running about 300 watts on TX.

I also heard a YO station last night that was S9. This is crazy - that 160M is so good near the peak of a cycle - but then its 160M - where anything can happen I guess.
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K3STX
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Posts: 1001




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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2013, 06:14:40 AM »

i look at the same graph and think "this is great, conditions will be good till 2015". I guess its all about expectations.

I would prefer almost no sunspots, I like the low bands.

But we don't get to place orders.

paul
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NI0C
Member

Posts: 2408




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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2013, 06:19:21 AM »

KY6R wrote:
Quote
Excellent. Before I was a ham I was an SWL, and before that a "BCB DX-er". So - to work anything just above the AM band this far away just boggles my mind.

Oleg was an S9 here on my K9AY loops - but on average - about S7. His signal did take some deep fades, but he has amazing ears. I was only running about 300 watts on TX.

I also heard a YO station last night that was S9. This is crazy - that 160M is so good near the peak of a cycle - but then its 160M - where anything can happen I guess.

Top Band, our Medium Frequency band, holds the same appeal for me, Rich.  I first worked the band around 1963, running about 50 watts output to a low, long piece of magnet wire that I ran down the alley behind the neighbor's yards, tying it to the garage roofs. It worked for a few weeks, and my best "DX" was a VE3 worked from St. Louis. 

When I worked Oleg, I experienced the same fading, and found I had to "surf" the QSB in order to get a solid QSO. 

I still need YO on Top Band.  The eastern regions of Europe have been scarce for me this season; conditions just aren't as consistently good as a few years ago, but listening every night pays off. 

73,
Chuck  NI0C
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