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Author Topic: DXCC Sleuth => Wake Island  (Read 4770 times)

« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2013, 08:47:25 PM »

I agree with you on this and there is one additional factor - the leaders who have led all of the most rare DX-peditions are getting close to 70 years old.

Who will pick up the baton where these guys leave off?

I think it's more than age here, it's money. Unless we're talking about doctors, lawyers and engineers, today's yoot, in our current economic morass in the U.S. will probably not be able to afford the mega-DXpeditions. Costs for everything are rising much faster than ever due to fuel prices, environmental regulatory concerns and the fees associated therewith as well as the need to bring along compliance officers, like in the case of ZL9--all the while wages probably won't rise more than a few percent over the next 3 decades. So what was an affordable trip for a 45 year old middle-class ham five or 10 years ago will become a trip for the super-wealthy only in the near future.

I think you'll see a far greater number of European DXers traveling the world in the coming generations since the economy there (and especially in DL) is in much better shape. Meanwhile, U.S. hams will be more content to stay home and pay for the EU guys to do the traveling.

Interesting ideas.

I think DX-peditions will become smaller - there will be more "2 guys in a sailboat" type dx-peditions and also - for larger ones - more the size of what ZL9HR did.

I'd guess we have 10 more years of mega dx-peditions before that starts waning.


Posts: 2071

« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2013, 09:26:07 PM »

I think the "off limits" places will be truly hard to activate and extremely rare.

But I think there will be more DXpeditions to far flung places that are easy-ish to activate by 1-2 people like KY6R said.

The really rare places that are guarded by Government force such as KP1, KH5 etc have a very tough obstacle, namely the US Government. That is different from days past.

But today we have a lot more cheap air travel and a lot more research missions and opportunities to activate places than in times past.

« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2013, 09:41:57 PM »

But today we have a lot more cheap air travel and a lot more research missions and opportunities to activate places than in times past.

You are right. I've done some research and was surprised to find that there are tour companies (maybe call them "eco-tours") where you can go to many very exotic and rare entities. They are already cleared as far as access and whatnot are concerned, so maybe that's an avenue to explore.

I have also wondering about tagging along with scientific research trips. A little imagination could go a long way.

It will take some $$$ though.

Posts: 3664


« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2013, 12:00:10 AM »

Fair enough, but how many of these places are anywhere near the top 100 or top 50? We'll just see how many more small operations to places everybody has in their logs every few years. I don't know about you, but how many more E5, FW, KH8S, T32 and VP6 bandfills do you need? Even E8, now? Sure there will be a smattering of big operations from rare entities from time to time, as opportunity presents itself and wealthy DXpeditioners get the urge to travel but I think Rich is right, that in a few years, it will cost upward of $2M to stage a voyage to a place like Peter I or Bouvet. I fear that the upcoming operations to Heard and Amsterdam will be the last ones for most of our lifetimes, and I'm hoping a group can put Crozet on the air in the next few years as well, before it, too, becomes a financial impossibility.

I can see a few African entities changing (easier becoming harder, harder becoming more frequent) as regional politics shift. I can also see SV/a going silent for an extremely long time if Monk Apollo leaves the airwaves.
Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll.

« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2013, 07:12:04 AM »

In a very short while - ZL9HR and FT5ZM will look like they got a killer deal on transportation. We are right on the "cusp" of being forced to be a lot more "creative" about how we organize these DX-peditions. There is hope - but the "way its always been done" is not sustainable - at least not the large DX-peds. I do think we will go back to the way it was "pre-Mega" DX-peds, and I agree - mainly due to cost. Maybe there will be more but smaller DX-peds? At least until those who can afford to go get past an age that allows for this (?) There are a lot of avid  DX-ers retiring, and they are in better shape than ever - so I expect an increase in small DX-peds for the next 10 years or so.

I've got to say that I think the IOTA program has an "agile" look and feel to it - a few guys jump in a boat and activate a place quickly. They look like small "startups" as opposed to the mega DX-peditions - which look like large corporations. I like the spirit of the IOTA program - it seems to be well poised for any future demographic changes. I can see why younger DX-ers might even be more drawn to IOTA than DXCC. I know many young software engineers who would much rather jump in a sailboat and activate an island than go through all of the big planning for a major DX-ped.

I have the history of the DXCC program here:

I think what will happen to the program will be a lot like what will happen to anything that has been influenced by the population explosion that followed WWII (aka "Baby Boom").

We have seen an increase - sharpest after WWII and remaining fairly steady with a few uplifts, but I expect this chart to start dropping downward.

I think there will only be new entities where there is a legitimate new country, and that places like Scarborough Reef will not be added to the list. I think the days of (as a mentor of mine told me about the DXAC) they won't have to say "Good Grief, Another Reef" . . . I'm glad the DXCC Desk is waiting to add Kosovo until its legit - they weren't pressured into adding an entity like they were with Scarborough - and more recently - Swains. No more "changing the rules so someone can get an entity on and run out to be the first to activate it". At least I hope this is the case.

In other words - I think some of the rules have already been changed to weed out bogus entities "by attrition". That's the only way to keep the OOT's, OT's and YF's (young farts) all happy and participating.

I think the Deleted rule was the silliest thing ever - but that's another topic. I mean - when they have "The Last Man Standing" - they don't qualify that with ("minus your Deletes") . . .
« Last Edit: May 12, 2013, 07:29:43 AM by KY6R » Logged
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