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Author Topic: I would never have guessed  (Read 5675 times)
KD8MJR
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« on: July 12, 2013, 03:34:40 PM »


http://www.space.com/21937-sun-solar-weather-peak-is-weak.html



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AF3Y
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2013, 03:44:53 PM »


And........ 25 to be weaker yet? I hope Vince does not read this... He will burst a blood vessel. Cry Cry

73, Gene AF3Y
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AD9DX
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Posts: 1507




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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2013, 04:09:09 PM »

Well, this is my first two years DXing. So I guess for the next decade and a half, this is as good as it gets. I guess it's a good thing I have DXCC on 10m already.
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EX, KC9TRM, KB9IRZ
KD8MJR
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2013, 05:23:28 PM »

It gets worst,the BBC program I saw the other day talked about this possibly being the start of a 70 year cycle that they think happens every 300 years.  If that's true we will not have another good solar cycle for almost 70 years.  Isn't that Ironic for all of us new Hams  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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AD9DX
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2013, 05:31:52 PM »

It gets worst,the BBC program I saw the other day talked about this possibly being the start of a 70 year cycle that they think happens every 300 years.  If that's true we will not have another good solar cycle for almost 70 years.  Isn't that Ironic for all of us new Hams  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


While I am not a "new" ham I had my general by 10, but got wrapped up in chasing skirts and my license lapsed. I am 31 now so when I am 100 things will kick butt again.

The good news is that technology will continue to improve and DX will still be there for the taking.
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NU4B
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2013, 07:07:46 PM »

Even at 5 watts I worked some great DX during the solar min. All is not lost. Well... 10 meters might be a little hard to find, but depending on what DXCC entities somebody needs, there will still be openings.
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AD9DX
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Posts: 1507




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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2013, 07:11:13 PM »

Even at 5 watts I worked some great DX during the solar min. All is not lost. Well... 10 meters might be a little hard to find, but depending on what DXCC entities somebody needs, there will still be openings.

I would feel a lot better if I could get 12m done. I don't know if I will as I don't spend the time on it that I should.  Guess I'll get cracking.
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VK3HJ
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Posts: 672




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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2013, 05:42:45 AM »

I think the message is: push hard for your 10 and 12 m band DXCC at every opportunity, and start planning your low band antennas to keep DX-ing after this Cycle drops away.
There were some Contests towards the end of last year that helped put me over the 100 mark on 10 m.
Now I'm looking for ideas for 30 and 40 m beams, and perhaps 3 el for 20 m, to put on a new tower in the side paddock.
73 es GL.
Luke VK3HJ
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WX2S
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Posts: 744




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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2013, 05:56:19 AM »

Or get into satellites/EME.

- WX2S
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73, - Steve WX2S.
I subscribe to the DX Code of Conduct. http://dx-code.org/
WH7DX
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Posts: 1029




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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2013, 01:18:45 PM »

We'll see.    They say a period of COOLING.   Might explain why the temperature hasn't increased even though Carbon PPM is higher.. 

I'm not concerned with Climate Change at the moment.   But if we are entering a period similar to the 70s where we have cooling related to the sun than the next increase after that might be a really interesting period *if* Carbon PPM is as factor.

Back in the 1970s everyone was saying that we were entering Global Cooling because of our pollution.   

http://ktwop.wordpress.com/tag/solar-cycle/

Cycle 24 might just be a fluke - it wouldn't be the first time.  We'll just hafto wait and see.

It might be a steady increase in Cycles strength..

It might be a pattern with a "Dalton Period"...

It might just be Cycle 20 repeating and another strong cycle is coming up....

http://www.oneminuteastronomer.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Sunspot-Cycle.png


Cycle 20..

http://www.google.com/search?q=solar+cycle+20&client=safari&rls=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=4LXhUc2XEoe9igK2rYCABw&ved=0CEMQsAQ&biw=1729&bih=954#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=jookVuei3vKSjM%3A%3BgyPIjtaIs1cvcM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.workingonthemoon.com%252FLSBf3-16.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.workingonthemoon.com%252FWOTM-Radiation.html%3B881%3B617

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KD8MJR
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2013, 01:07:20 PM »

The show on the BBC said that they have good sunspot records going back almost 500 years because early astronomers kept journals that had drawings of the sunspots for each month.

Based on these records they know that 300+ years ago the sunspots slowed down and stopped
For a 70 year period.  In the middle of this period a mini ice age hit the planet including the year when the Thames river in London froze over for the only time in recorded history.

I find it all a bit strange that a lack of sunspots are the reason but I can believe that maybe they are an indicator of the sun having a 300 year cycle of cooling and it shows up as a decrease in sunspots.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2013, 02:05:44 PM by KD8MJR » Logged
WH7DX
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Posts: 1029




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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2013, 02:51:26 PM »

They just don't know.

Looking at the long term chart and drawing a median line through...  You'd get a increasing pattern so I would think that any call for a sudden dead period would be guessing. 

The fact that the last dead period also coincided with a mini ice age is pretty interesting.

Based on the chart - if I had to BET, I'd go with and increasing period with cycle dips like #20.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/nasa-we-may-be-on-the-verge-of-a-mini-maunder-event-is-a-planetary-cooling-spell-straight-ahead/5318725
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KY6R
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2013, 03:59:39 PM »

Phased vertical arrays on 40 and 30M. Lay down as many buried radials as you can. If you have a massive tower - put 40 and 30M yagi's up at least 1/2 wl.

Or - move to a place with a dock over salt water and phase two 1/2 wl verticals using the Christman method. One for 20M and one for 40M. One more for 30M if you can.

Won't matter what happens sunspot wise.
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K3NRX
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2013, 04:24:39 AM »


And........ 25 to be weaker yet? I hope Vince does not read this... He will burst a blood vessel. Cry Cry

73, Gene AF3Y

 Grin....already did, Geno....already did!..... Angry Roll Eyes Shocked.....the other sad part of these poor forecasts is that it not only will effect radio propagation, but it may even have an effect on the earth's climate.....Gird your loins ladies and germs, and start chopping fire wood.....cause it's gonna get butt ugly cold cold cold in these here parts if these solar activity forecasts hold true.....

 Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry....

V
KA3NRX
« Last Edit: July 15, 2013, 04:41:43 AM by KA3NRX » Logged
VK3HJ
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Posts: 672




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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2013, 06:23:26 AM »

Oh well, if there are no sunspots *and* it is going to be cooler, I'll be lighting the big thermionic valves and keep warm working DX on Low Bands!

As with financial systems, one cannot predict the future from what has happened in the past.

73,
Luke VK3HJ
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