Cycle 25 Possibilities
Reading many wishful thinking “hopes” on cycle 25 being a clone of cycle 19, a little objectivity, history, and practicality is needed.
It looks as if this “Propagation Winter,” DXers have endured for the last 4 years may be coming to an end. Cycle 24 very definitively bottomed late November/December of 2019.
Cycle 25 sunspots developed January of 2020 (High Latitude Reverse Polarity.) Early August saw cycle 25 sunspots exceeding cycle 24's and not only staying on the solar disc for more than just a few days, but offering a good increase in size (100 millionths) compared to the 10 to 30 millionths we have been seeing. So far so good. (Solar Flux rose to approximately 75). Keep in mind cycle's that start slow are low cycles...there are NO exceptions.
Turning back the sunspot cycle history pages, let us take a look at cycle 22 (one EVERYONE remembers) Prior to the start of cycle 22 in October of 1986, we had a low, (Solar Flux 66) but nowhere even close to the long deep low of cycle 24. (Lowest extended low in 100 years.)
Cycle 22's solar flux made a steady upward progression – 70s, 80s, 90s, and crossing 100 Fall of 1987. (Notice I am using solar flux as a gauge NOT Sunspots, as spots without sufficient Size, Strength, and Magnetic Complexity will have little effect on solar flux levels.) A few15 meter openings happened in late July, and solid openings on 15 meters were the norm Fall into Winter of 1987. Total elapsed time back in the saddle on 15M - 1 year. We are 8 Months from the start of cycle 25 in January, or coming up on a Month from the flurry of cycle 25 sunspots in early mid-August.
What happens in the next 6-9 months will be key. Should the solar flux follow the path of previous high cycles (21, 22, and the infamous cycle 19) we are “in the money” If not, cycle 25 will be most likely be a replica of cycle 24.
We are at a critical juncture – this Fall and Spring of the new year will set the pace and be the indicator of what type of cycle we can expect.
Randy
W7TJ
| K4FMH | 2020-09-21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Re: Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| Hi, If you listen to my interview, you’ll find out why they are two different forecast models! Frank Reply to a comment by : W6QW on 2020-09-16 Just read yet another Cycle 25 forecast (NOAA) stating that it will be similar to Cycle 24. But any good weatherman knows that sticking your head out the window to check the actual weather is far superior to its previous forecast. So, only time will tell... Reply to a comment by : K4FMH on 2020-09-10 Hi, Worth listening to this interview of Dr. Scott McIntosh of NCAR in Boulder CO for a different method to predict sunspot cycles: https://www.icqpodcast.com/download-the-show/2020/8/30/icq-podcast-episode-332-exciting-bumper-new-solar-cycle 73, Frank K4FMH | ||
| W7RF | 2020-09-21 | |
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| Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| One good thing about what we endured in cycle 24 was the fact we have the best radios ever and, as during all sunspot minimums, we have the low bands that are quieter (less noise) than during higher sunspot activity. Another good thing, virtually no old style TVI. Bad news is more hams in HOA communities and more noise into our receivers generated by RF generating consumer devices. No matter what cycle 25 turns out to be, it will definitely be better than the last few years of 24! 73, Dan W7RF | ||
| N5UD | 2020-09-19 | |
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| Re: Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| Let us hope this cycle is a big bang. I had a friend say that "last cycle" during previous cycle. Sadly it was prophetic. Let us hope for another one after this one. Reply to a comment by : G8FXC on 2020-09-10 Let's keep our fingers crossed - I would not be too surprised if this is my last cycle, so let's go out with a bang! Martin (G8FXC) | ||
| W6QW | 2020-09-16 | |
|---|---|---|
| Re: Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| Just read yet another Cycle 25 forecast (NOAA) stating that it will be similar to Cycle 24. But any good weatherman knows that sticking your head out the window to check the actual weather is far superior to its previous forecast. So, only time will tell... Reply to a comment by : K4FMH on 2020-09-10 Hi, Worth listening to this interview of Dr. Scott McIntosh of NCAR in Boulder CO for a different method to predict sunspot cycles: https://www.icqpodcast.com/download-the-show/2020/8/30/icq-podcast-episode-332-exciting-bumper-new-solar-cycle 73, Frank K4FMH | ||
| K4FMH | 2020-09-10 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| Hi, Worth listening to this interview of Dr. Scott McIntosh of NCAR in Boulder CO for a different method to predict sunspot cycles: https://www.icqpodcast.com/download-the-show/2020/8/30/icq-podcast-episode-332-exciting-bumper-new-solar-cycle 73, Frank K4FMH | ||
| G8FXC | 2020-09-10 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle 25 Possibilities | ||
| Let's keep our fingers crossed - I would not be too surprised if this is my last cycle, so let's go out with a bang! Martin (G8FXC) | ||