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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #45 de K7RA:

from W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL on November 10, 2017
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #45 de K7RA:

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 10, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots are visible so far in November, and as of November 9 we have seen nine days of blank Sun. But the past few days had strong geomagnetic activity, with planetary A index on November 7-9 at 36, 47 and 20, and so far on early November 10, at 21. 28 is the predicted planetary A index for November 10.

According to Spaceweather.com, 24% of 2017 so far (76 days) have seen 0 sunspots. In all of 2016 there were only 32 days (9%) with no sunspots. There were no periods in 2015 with any visible sunspot activity.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 17.7 last week to 0 this week, November 2-8. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.4 to 70.8. Average daily planetary A index changed from 6.4 to 15.6, and average mid-latitude A index rose from 4.7 to 12.4.

Predicted solar flux is 66 on November 10-11, 68 on November 12-13, 70 on November 14-17, 75 on November 18-30, 72 on December 1, 71 on December 2-3, 70 on December 4-10, then 71, 72, 73, 73 and 74 on December 11-15, and 75 on December 16-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 28, 24, 12, and 8 on November 10-13, then 5, 16, 12 and 10 on November 14-17, 5 on November 18-19, 20 on November 20-22, 5 on November 23-28, 10 on November 29-30, 5 on December 1-2, 10 and 27 on December 3-4, 30 on December 5-6, then 28, 25 and 10 on December 7-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-14, 5 on December 15-16, 20 on December 17-19, and 5 on December 20-24.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 10 to December 6, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, who has been compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since 1978.

"Geomagnetic field will be:

"Quiet on November 13-14, 19, 24-28, December 2-3
Mostly quiet on November 18, December 1
Quiet to unsettled on November 16, 20, 23, 29
Quiet to active on November 12, 15, 17, 30, December 30, December 4, 6
Active to disturbed on November 10-11, 21-22, December 5

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on November 11-15, (16-19,), 20-24, (29-30,) and on December (1-5,) 6-8.

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Current forecasts remain less reliable."

Also we got this from Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism at Budkov observatory, also in the Czech Republic.

"Geomagnetic activity summary:

"At the Budkov observatory, we observed a minor storm event on November 7, peaking at 1842 UTC. After this event, the conditions are between unsettled to active and through November 10 we expect the same level. Further, we expect at most unsettled conditions till Sunday, November 12, and also probable unsettled event at the end of the forecast period, Thursday, November 16.

"Between Monday, November 13, and Tuesday, November 15, we expect at most quiet conditions only with minor unsettled event."

Hisako Koyama appears in the news again this week. Check out "Ms. Hisako Koyama: From Amateur Astronomer to Long-Term Solar Observer" at, http://bit.ly/2xXk24E .

Check out this article about an unusual solar event:

http://cnet.co/2mc7T9P

Bruce Smith, AC4G of Taft, Tennessee wrote:

"In April 2013, I was so excited to hear and make a QSO with VK9CZ, Cocos-Keeling on 80m CW as reported in the ARRL Propagation Report. The VK9CZ signal appeared all of a sudden out of nowhere with 579 signals at my sunset 2343z via long path. Other stateside operators made the QSO including N4II who studied the technical aspects (science) and wrote a few articles on the path of the VK9CZ signal at grey line for April 2013.

"Recently, in Nov 2017, 4 years and 7 months later, VK9CZ put on another DXpedition to Cocos-Keeling. To my surprise, I heard their signals once again pop out of nowhere on 80 CW at my sunset (from 2235z until 2325z) early-November renewing my excitement. The signals long path (SE Beverage antenna) were surpassing 599. I could not pass another chance to say hello this year by giving the op on that side a 599 signal report. His sigs peaked via long path at 10 dB over S9 at my Taft, TN QTH this year Nov 2017. Perhaps Fall long path sigs are better than April sigs? There were several stateside hams who made the 1 Nov logs on 80m. The online log only showed about 36 QSOs in NA who had made the logs according to the Clublog statistics that I was monitoring on 1 Nov.

"On 5 Nov, I could barely hear the VK9CZ signals long path via SE Beverage antenna. Since then, a few other lucky operators logged an 80m QSO via LP with VK9CZ for a total of 71 80m QSOs as late as 6 Nov.

"November 6 was one of their last operating periods closing out their operation with another long path opening. The VK9CZ signals peaked via LP about 539 on this day in Taft, TN. All other days not described above, there were no apparent signals being received at my location in southern Tennessee on 80m.

"My observations revealed one great long path opening at my sunset and one mediocre opening, while the other long path openings were nil to barely readable. As it was in 2013, both VK9CZ and my QTH were in sunlight for both QSOs taking advantage of another sunrise enhancement.

"I also monitored 160m on days no sigs were heard on 80m, but not a whisper from the VK9CZ 160m signals at my sunset on many days monitored or when 160m cluster spots indicated VK9CZ operations on 160m.

"By the time the readers read this, the DXpedition will have ended. Hopefully, the next few years may bring other surprises on 80m/160m for us all renewing the DX Spirit for all low band operators."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 73.2, 72.1, 71.1, 69.4, 68.3, and 67.6, with a mean of 70.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 4, 3, 2, 36, and 47, with a mean of 15.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 7, 2, 1, 0, 26, and 39, with a mean of 12.4.
NNNN
/EX

Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.

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