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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #02 de K7RA:

from W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL on January 11, 2019
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #02 de K7RA:

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 11, 2019
To all radio amateurs

ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

In this reporting week, January 3-9, average daily sunspot number increased from 4.1 to 7.7. Average daily solar flux increased from 70.4 to 71.6.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.3 to 7.4, and average mid-latitude A index went from 7.6 to 6.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days appears to mostly toggle between two values, 70 and 71, with one exception.

Predicted solar flux is 69 on January 11-17, 70 on January 18-19, 71 on January 20 to February 2, 72 on February 3, 70 on February 4-15, and 71 on February 16-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 11, 8 on January 12-13, 5 on January 14, 8 on January 15-16, 5 on January 17-23, then 20, 12 and 8 on January 24-26, 5 on January 27-30, then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on January 31 through February 3, 5 on February 4-11, 12 on February 12, 5 on February 13-19, then 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, and 5 again on February 23-24.

No updated OK1HH geomagnetic forecast until January 31.

Back in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP049 on December 7, 2018, I mentioned a new revised solar cycle prediction through the end of 2022 in the current Space Weather Highlights from NOAA, and how some aspects didn't make sense. I hoped to see this corrected in the next monthly update, but alas the one that came out this month is unchanged, and inquiries to NOAA remain unanswered.

Perhaps this is because the people who might respond are all furloughed during the federal government shutdown.

This report is from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania:

"While monitoring the 11 meter citizen band at 7 pm EST (0015 UTC Sunday, January 6, 2019) I started to hear long distance stations along the central and south-eastern states; North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

"Then Alabama, Texas that were blending in with locals with the Es MUF at 59 MHz above Washington, DC (FM18).

"At 7:34 pm EST 0034 UTC reports were coming in from central Pennsylvania (FN11) of FM broadcast stations that were skipping in and out from Melbourne and (EL98) Miami (EL95), Florida.

"Two minutes later, analog TV video carriers were observed on channels 2, 3, 4, 6; 55.250 to 83.25 MHz. No VHF-Hi band channel 7 (175.25 MHz) video carrier was noted

"Then the unexpected, 91.7 MHz ZHN Nassau, Bahamas (FL15). MUF reached to the top end of the band, 107 MHz.

"At 0040 UTC, if we account for space weather, the Aurora Forecast Ovation-Prime Model hemispheric power registered 36.84 GW. Solar Flux Index was 71.

"Then from 8:36-9:05 EST (0136-0205 UTC) local and semi-local stations were vaporizing while distant stations' signal strengths were becoming stronger with a fair amount of fading as the Es was heading westerly from overhead Florida. The Es paths were bound north to south.

"This is when the Es MUF reached 99 MHz over Missouri (EM37). This is the time when it seemed as if there was a focused direct metal duct over my QTH to all those stations mentioned above, as far west as Houston, Texas.

"TVDX'er in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania (FN20) in the Lehigh Valley detected Cuban analog television channels on three and five with a baseball game in effect."

"(Update) - He later reported to me that he was scanning the digital TV low-band channels and something was detected on channel 5, but the video did not decode.

"My reply to him: Since I was getting Houston, TX I suspect that his non-decoded signal was KCWX running 23.7 kW effective radiated power (ERP) from Fredericksburg (north of San Antonio), TX at a distance of 1491 miles, azimuth 250 degrees.

"TVDX'er in Akron, Ohio (EN91) was receiving Es from Cuba at 1300 miles with a Cuban baseball event on both analog channels 2 and 5. Channel 3 had unknown programming with co-channel interference (CCI).

"The distance from Akron, Ohio to Bethlehem, Pennsylvania is 322 miles. For both TVDX'ers to be receiving the same broadcasters shows how intense and wide-spread the single-hop sporadic-E became. A bizarre feat indeed.

"By 9:30 pm local, sporadic-E was waving goodbye."

This report about LF propagation is from Arliss Thompson, W7XU of Parker, South Dakota. Be sure to check out his bio page on

"I'm writing to pass along a 2200m (136 kHz) propagation report from here in South Dakota (EN13), portions of which you may find interesting.

"While I have been monitoring 630m for over a year, it was just within the past 2 weeks or so that I tuned down to 136 kHz to check out the 2200m band.

"I was rather surprised to copy 2 experimental stations in Arizona (WH2XXP and WH2XND) the first time I listened to the band. Since then, I have also copied the WSPR transmissions of stations in British Columbia, WA, UT, IL, TX, PA, MD and ME. I have also copied a CW beacon from Colorado on the band.

"What was amazing to me, however, was that on 5 January 2019 (UTC), I copied the WSPR signal from EA5DOM in grid square IM98. His signal first appeared at 0042 UTC and was then decoded again several times around 0200 UTC. Signal strength ranged from -28 to -31. The distance between our stations is approximately 7660 km.

"I later read reports of some US stations (including K9KFR in Indiana) working England on 630m that same evening.

"My station consists of a K3s and a 1500' Beverage (long, but still a short antenna at 2200m).

"I'm including EA5DOM's reply to my report below.

"Thanks for writing the propagation bulletin.

"73, Arliss Thompson, W7XU"

>From EA5DOM:

"Hi Arliss

"Thank you for the amazing report! This is my 'three kings' present this year.

"It is a pity you don't upload the spots to the wsprnet server. Can you try please? Would be important to have the spots uploaded to be also in the map.

"According to your location in it's a 4760 mile, 7660 km path!

"So far, I have just got reports from the East coast down to Virginia, but nothing inland as far as South Dakota. I bet the reports can be much better in WPSR-15. It is about 13dB better than WSPR-2 and really worth the Tx effort. I'm blessed with living in a high building tower, 80m high and managed to use the height of the building as active part of the antenna. So, my antenna is in fact a 90m vertical top loaded and top fed at the last 10m where the coil and PA are, so the high voltage is just on top section. The rest is connected to a fire-extinguish water pipe which runs to the basement and only conducts RF current.

"This setup worked very nicely on MF and lately I'm testing it on LF. The PA is a D-Class G0MRF style and powered by a 600W 26V PSU. The RF current last night was 3A RF and power would be around 400W.

"You are also my ODX in LF, Arliss. And thank you for listening. Much appreciated.

"73 de Luis EA5DOM"

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at

Sunspot numbers for January 3 through 9, 2019 were 16, 13, 13, 12, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72.6, 71.5, 71.1, 72, 71.5, 71.3, and 71.5, with a mean of 71.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 15, 9, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 7, 11, 9, 6, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.1.

Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.

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