Propagation Forecast Bulletin #02 de K7RA:
W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL
January 11, 2019
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #02 de K7RA:
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 11, 2019
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
In this reporting week, January 3-9, average daily sunspot number
increased from 4.1 to 7.7. Average daily solar flux increased from
70.4 to 71.6.
Average daily planetary A index went from 9.3 to 7.4, and average
mid-latitude A index went from 7.6 to 6.1.
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days appears to mostly toggle
between two values, 70 and 71, with one exception.
Predicted solar flux is 69 on January 11-17, 70 on January 18-19, 71
on January 20 to February 2, 72 on February 3, 70 on February 4-15,
and 71 on February 16-24.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 11, 8 on January 12-13,
5 on January 14, 8 on January 15-16, 5 on January 17-23, then 20, 12
and 8 on January 24-26, 5 on January 27-30, then 10, 15, 12 and 10
on January 31 through February 3, 5 on February 4-11, 12 on February
12, 5 on February 13-19, then 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, and 5
again on February 23-24.
No updated OK1HH geomagnetic forecast until January 31.
Back in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP049 on December 7, 2018, I
mentioned a new revised solar cycle prediction through the end of
2022 in the current Space Weather Highlights from NOAA, and how some
aspects didn't make sense. I hoped to see this corrected in the next
monthly update, but alas the one that came out this month is
unchanged, and inquiries to NOAA remain unanswered.
Perhaps this is because the people who might respond are all
furloughed during the federal government shutdown.
This report is from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania:
"While monitoring the 11 meter citizen band at 7 pm EST (0015 UTC
Sunday, January 6, 2019) I started to hear long distance stations
along the central and south-eastern states; North Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
"Then Alabama, Texas that were blending in with locals with the Es
MUF at 59 MHz above Washington, DC (FM18).
"At 7:34 pm EST 0034 UTC reports were coming in from central
Pennsylvania (FN11) of FM broadcast stations that were skipping in
and out from Melbourne and (EL98) Miami (EL95), Florida.
"Two minutes later, analog TV video carriers were observed on
channels 2, 3, 4, 6; 55.250 to 83.25 MHz. No VHF-Hi band channel 7
(175.25 MHz) video carrier was noted
"Then the unexpected, 91.7 MHz ZHN Nassau, Bahamas (FL15). MUF
reached to the top end of the band, 107 MHz.
"At 0040 UTC, if we account for space weather, the Aurora Forecast
Ovation-Prime Model hemispheric power registered 36.84 GW. Solar
Flux Index was 71.
"Then from 8:36-9:05 EST (0136-0205 UTC) local and semi-local
stations were vaporizing while distant stations' signal strengths
were becoming stronger with a fair amount of fading as the Es was
heading westerly from overhead Florida. The Es paths were bound
north to south.
"This is when the Es MUF reached 99 MHz over Missouri (EM37). This
is the time when it seemed as if there was a focused direct metal
duct over my QTH to all those stations mentioned above, as far west
as Houston, Texas.
"TVDX'er in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania (FN20) in the Lehigh Valley
detected Cuban analog television channels on three and five with a
baseball game in effect."
"(Update) - He later reported to me that he was scanning the digital
TV low-band channels and something was detected on channel 5, but
the video did not decode.
"My reply to him: Since I was getting Houston, TX I suspect that his
non-decoded signal was KCWX running 23.7 kW effective radiated power
(ERP) from Fredericksburg (north of San Antonio), TX at a distance
of 1491 miles, azimuth 250 degrees.
"TVDX'er in Akron, Ohio (EN91) was receiving Es from Cuba at 1300
miles with a Cuban baseball event on both analog channels 2 and 5.
Channel 3 had unknown programming with co-channel interference
"The distance from Akron, Ohio to Bethlehem, Pennsylvania is 322
miles. For both TVDX'ers to be receiving the same broadcasters shows
how intense and wide-spread the single-hop sporadic-E became. A
bizarre feat indeed.
"By 9:30 pm local, sporadic-E was waving goodbye."
This report about LF propagation is from Arliss Thompson, W7XU of
Parker, South Dakota. Be sure to check out his bio page on QRZ.com.
"I'm writing to pass along a 2200m (136 kHz) propagation report from
here in South Dakota (EN13), portions of which you may find
"While I have been monitoring 630m for over a year, it was just
within the past 2 weeks or so that I tuned down to 136 kHz to check
out the 2200m band.
"I was rather surprised to copy 2 experimental stations in Arizona
(WH2XXP and WH2XND) the first time I listened to the band. Since
then, I have also copied the WSPR transmissions of stations in
British Columbia, WA, UT, IL, TX, PA, MD and ME. I have also copied
a CW beacon from Colorado on the band.
"What was amazing to me, however, was that on 5 January 2019 (UTC),
I copied the WSPR signal from EA5DOM in grid square IM98. His signal
first appeared at 0042 UTC and was then decoded again several times
around 0200 UTC. Signal strength ranged from -28 to -31. The
distance between our stations is approximately 7660 km.
"I later read reports of some US stations (including K9KFR in
Indiana) working England on 630m that same evening.
"My station consists of a K3s and a 1500' Beverage (long, but still
a short antenna at 2200m).
"I'm including EA5DOM's reply to my report below.
"Thanks for writing the propagation bulletin.
"73, Arliss Thompson, W7XU"
"Thank you for the amazing report! This is my 'three kings' present
"It is a pity you don't upload the spots to the wsprnet server. Can
you try please? Would be important to have the spots uploaded to be
also in the map.
"According to your location in qrz.com it's a 4760 mile, 7660 km
"So far, I have just got reports from the East coast down to
Virginia, but nothing inland as far as South Dakota. I bet the
reports can be much better in WPSR-15. It is about 13dB better than
WSPR-2 and really worth the Tx effort. I'm blessed with living in a
high building tower, 80m high and managed to use the height of the
building as active part of the antenna. So, my antenna is in fact a
90m vertical top loaded and top fed at the last 10m where the coil
and PA are, so the high voltage is just on top section. The rest is
connected to a fire-extinguish water pipe which runs to the basement
and only conducts RF current.
"This setup worked very nicely on MF and lately I'm testing it on
LF. The PA is a D-Class G0MRF style and powered by a 600W 26V PSU.
The RF current last night was 3A RF and power would be around 400W.
"You are also my ODX in LF, Arliss. And thank you for listening.
"73 de Luis EA5DOM"
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at
Sunspot numbers for January 3 through 9, 2019 were 16, 13, 13, 12,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72.6, 71.5, 71.1,
72, 71.5, 71.3, and 71.5, with a mean of 71.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 2, 9, 15, 9, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 7.4. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 2, 7, 11, 9, 6, 5, and 3, with a mean of
Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.
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