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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #27 de K7RA:

from W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL on July 8, 2019
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #27 de K7RA:

ZCZC AP27
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 5, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity remains very low. Over the past two weeks only four days had visible sunspots, so average daily sunspot numbers went from 6.7 in last week's report to 1.6 this week.

Average daily solar flux remained the same, moving only from 67.4 to 67.5. Geomagnetic activity was also flat, with average daily planetary A index changing from 5 to 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 5.1.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is also flat, with solar flux at 68 on July 5-12, 67 on July 13-19, 68 on July 20 through August 3, 69 on August 4-5, 68 on August 6-7, 67 on August 8-15, and 68 on August 16-18.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 10 on July 5-6, 5 on July 7-8, then 10, 15, 12 and 8 on July 9-12, 5 on July 13 through August 1, 8 on August 2, 5 on August 3-5, 8 on August 6-7, and 5 on August 8-18.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 5-31, 2019.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on July 12-16, 25-26
Quiet to unsettled on July 8-9, 17, 20-21, (27)
Quiet to active on July 10-11, (19, 21, 24)
Unsettled to active on July 6-7, (18, 22-23, 28-31)
Active to disturbed on July 5

"Solar wind will intensify on July 5-7, (8-9,) 10-11, (17-19, 22-24).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

"Next Geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued on July 18."

Thanks to N7SO for this site:

https://bit.ly/2xvU1dr

Spaceweather.com reported this week that a sunspot from new (next) Solar Cycle 25 appeared briefly on July 1. This is based on the polarity of the sunspot (which was visible so briefly that it was not assigned a number), opposite from spots from current Solar Cycle 24.

So far Solar Cycle 25 sunspots appeared on December 20, 2016, April 8 and November 17, 2018, May 28 and July 1, 2018.

Several months ago some new solar cycle predictions were published. Note there is no expectation for another Maunder Minimum:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

On July 1 K1HTV made what may be the first documented Trans-Atlantic 50 MHz 2-way contacts using the new FT4 mode. At 1854Z the first FT4 QSO was completed with F5SSD and 5 minutes later, with IZ8WGU.

Wayne, W2ZDP in Clinton, North Carolina reports: "On 7/1/19, starting about 1400Z, when I first noticed it at my location in FM04, 6 meter FT8 was like 20 meter FT8, with Europe coming in all day long, lasting until about 2000Z

"I'm sure that I'm not the only one to comment on this but I only have a modest 6 meter station, 100 watts to a 4 element beam at 30 feet. I have never witnessed such a prolific opening to Europe since I moved from FN02 to FM04.

"When was all said and done, I managed to work 14 countries and 22 grids. This would have been a normal day on 17 meters but on 6...Spectacular!"

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Sunspot numbers for June 27 through July 3, 2019 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67, 68.1, 67.6, 67.4, 68.2, 67.3, and 66.9, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 3, 3, 10, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.1.
NNNN
/EX

Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.

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