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Solar Activity and the Next Maunder Minimum:

from sunlive.co.nz on July 19, 2019
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Solar Activity and the Next Maunder Minimum:

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Solar Activity and the Next Maunder Minimum:  
by W7TJ on July 19, 2019 Mail this to a friend!
No comments yet...I'll comment.
First I wrote an article for E ham net September of 2014 Titled: "Preparing for the Propagation Winter" The reality of this is upon us. As this Link summarizes, there have been no sunspots of significance for 2 Months. ( we went for 55 consecutive days July/August of 2008 & now that has been surpassed ) Even though there are tiny tiny sunspots using "higher resolution " :) the solar flux has hardly budged from the high sixties. The driving force behind this is the lack of size, strength, and magnetic complexity of sunspots that has been on the decline since 1995 and is now such that what few sunspots that do form are not strong enough to make significant increases in the solar flux ( cycle 24 or 25. ) <Google search the Livingston and Penn studies> The author of this article is correct in that many forecasters do not want to face the implications of what is in store. There are three possible outcomes:

1. We could see a definite bottom of cycle 24 and a
QUICK start to cycle 25 with Large Strong high l
latitude reverse polarity sunspots and be on our
way to a Super Cycle. The probability of this is
VERY LOW.

2. We could see a long extended drawn out low similar
to the period between cycle 23 and 24 thus ushering
in cycle 25 that would be a mere fraction of a
shadow of cycle 24. ( Historically one very low
cycle will usually be followed by 1 to 2 other
very low cycles.)

3. Sunspots could abruptly vanish, ushering in a Dalton
or God forbid - Maunder Minimum.

Scenarios 2 and 3 are the most likely- which one manifests itself ...time will tell. Grand Solar minimums have occurred in the past, however no one is alive to remember them. One of the most chilling things was mentioned in an article posted some time ago on E Ham Net stating that we as Radio Amateurs have had the benefit of experiencing one of the highest longest periods of solar activity 1950 to 2009 - nothing as we all know lasts forever. Strong Sunspot cycles will eventually return.... most likely not in our Ham Radio Lifetimes.

Randy W7TJ

 
RE: Solar Activity and the Next Maunder Minimum:  
by WB2QIG on July 24, 2019 Mail this to a friend!
If figures, at 70 & just retiring, got my General class, have my antenna up & you give the news I really did not want to hear.
I do not love you any more!
Maxwell
 
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