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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #34 de K7RA:

from W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL on August 23, 2019
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #34 de K7RA:

ZCZC AP34
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA August 23, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

Spotless days continue this week, with consecutive days without sunspots now at 16 days, according to spaceweather.com as of August 22.

Average daily solar flux for all practical purposes was unchanged, from 67.4 last week to 67.5 this week. Average daily planetary A index went slightly lower from 6.3 to 4.4.

Predicted solar flux looks the same as it has been for months now, at 67 on August 23 to September 11, 68 on September 12 to 21 and 67 again on September 22 through October 6.

The forecast for planetary A index stands at 5 on August 23 to 25, then 12, 12 and 8 on August 26 to 28, 5 on August 29 to 31, then with a recurring coronal hole, 38 and 14 on September 1 and 2, 5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on September 6 and 7, then 5 on September 8 to 15, 7 on September 16 and 17, 6 on September 18, 5 on September 19 to 21, 8 on September 22 to 24, 5 on September 25 to 27, then with the return of that coronal hole 38 and 14 on September 28 and 29, 5 on September 30 through October 2, 8 on October 3 and 4 and 5 on October 5 and 6.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 23 to September 18, 2019 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH who has issued weekly forecasts since January, 1978.

"Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on: September 4 and 5, 9 to 15
Quiet to unsettled on: August 29 to 31, September 3, 6 to 8
Quiet to active on: August (23 to 25,) September 16 to 18
Unsettled to active on: August (26 to 28), September 2
Active to disturbed: September 1

Solar wind will intensify on: August 27 to 29, (30 and 31,) September 1 and 2, (4 to 7)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

There was an error in last week's bulletin, in which we misidentified a call sign from Reunion Island when it was really St. Pierre et Miquelon. Because of the proximity to Nova Scotia, I always thought it part of Canada, but it is really a French possession.

Ken, N4SO reports working XP3A (Greenland) with FT8 on 18.1 MHz, a new one for him.

Interesting course from WX6SWW about indices:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc

And her latest forecast:

https://youtu.be/GlpdWxXUnAk

Curious about spotless days?

http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Note that 1954 had more spotless days than last year, and it was just prior to the biggest solar cycle (cycle 19) in recorded history.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Sunspot numbers for August 15 through 21, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.6, 67.5, 68, 67.5, 67.7, 67.3, and 66.8, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 6, 7, 4, 7, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.
NNNN
/EX

Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.

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