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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #37 de K7RA:

from W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL on September 13, 2019
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin #37 de K7RA:

ZCZC AP37
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA September 13, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots this week. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 3.4 to 0. At the same time, average daily solar flux rose from 67.4 to 69.4.

Geomagnetic activity quieted, with average daily planetary A index declining from 19.9 to 8.9, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 16.7 to 7.7.

Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 13-22, 69 on September 23 through October 5, 68 on October 6-19, 69 on October 20-24, 68 on October 25 and 69 on October 26-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 13-22, 8 on September 23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on September 26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, 5 on October 4-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-22, then 8, 25, 30, 18 and 8 on October 23-27.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 13 til October 9, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: September 14-16, 20 (-21,) November 8-9
Quiet to unsettled on: September 13, 17-19, 22, (24,) November 4-7
Quiet to active on: September 23, 25, 30, November 1-3
Unsettled to active on: September (26)
Active to disturbed: September (27-29)

"Solar wind will intensify on: September 16, (24-27,) 28-30. October 1 (-4, 7-9)

"-Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
-The predictability of changes remains lower at present."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "There was some sporadic-E skip on 6 meters September 1 from the Midwest to Mexico to W6 and W7. From Kansas, I worked XE2OR in Mexico, and several stations in Arizona and California.

"On September 7, stations in New England worked the Gulf Coast. The Es may have been associated with active geomagnetic field conditions."

Ken Brown, N4SO of Grand Bay, Alabama reports on his recent FT8 contacts on 17 and 40 meters: "17 Meters remains stable and a very good daylight band for DX. Here is a sample of contacts on the FT8 digital mode.

"18.100 FT8 Sept. 11
135800 -15 0.1 1795 N4SO SP9DWT RR73 (Poland)
170830 -17 0.3 1278 N4SO 5B4ALJ RR73 (Mike in Cyprus)
170900 -16 0.4 779 CQ AL ON5CD JO20 Belgium (Note calling CQ for Alabama.
171130 -11 0.4 779 N4SO ON5CD RR73
171700 -16 0.2 1676 CQ MM0CEZ IO75 Scotland

"40 Meters remains an excellent band for DX contacts during the night with a world-wide range of countries on the FT8 digital mode.

"7.074 FT8 Sept. 9
131415 -1 0.5 1705 CQ KH2L QK23 Guam
132945 -9 0.1 2340 N4SO KH2L R-23
133000 Tx 2378 KH2L N4SO RR73"

Mike, K6THZ in Santa Clara, California reports unexpected propagation on 15 meters via FT8 late at night, including a QSO with Norway.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 68.9, 73.9, 67.5, 68.8, 70, and 68.1, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 8, 7, 10, 14, 4, and 5, with a mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A index was 11, 9, 6, 9, 11, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.
NNNN
/EX

Source: W1AW Bulletin via the ARRL.

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