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Author Topic: Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23  (Read 2202 times)

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Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23
« on: February 24, 2007, 07:17:17 AM »

It would be fun to second guess when the bottom of the sunspot cycle #23 was or will be.

From my own experience - chasing DX and monitoring many bands - I think the bottom of the cycle was December 2006.

I think cycle 23 will have proven to have a "high low" as far as the bottom is concerned.

This is not scientific at all. I base this on monitoring the MUF - just with my radio, and how all of a sudden I am starting to hear DX on higher and higher bands, with pretty rapid jumps in signal strength - just in the last 2 weeks.

Again - this is totally second guessing. We won't know until 13 months after it happens. My guessing is surely rooted in more wishing than science (heh heh).

My favorite band is 40M, but I remember at the second peak of cycle 23 how easy it was to work the world with an 11' Force-12 Sigma 5 short hatted vertical dipole and 100 watts.

Its been hard work working new ones this past year, so I look forward to hearing all the bands crowded with DX again.

Best DX to you - what is your personal prediction?
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WB2WIK

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Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2007, 03:21:58 PM »

I'm not sure we hit it, yet.

The only way to know when the bottom is is to pass it, see the continuous upward trend in sunspot numbers, SFI, etc. and then go back and define where the bottom "was."

Based on that, I'm not sure we've even hit the bottom yet; however it's very likely to occur within the next few months (if it didn't already).

Some experts are predicting a ho-hum Cycle 24 that won't even be as good as Cycle 23; other experts are predicting a hum-dinger that may even surpass Cycle 19.  I favor the latter, out of hope and not science!

WB2WIK/6
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N3OX

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Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2007, 07:54:38 PM »

"I favor the latter, out of hope and not science! "

Yeah, but it's a tradeoff... the excellent cycle 24 prediction is followed by a lame cycle 25.

I'd be OK with that, though.  Graduate from grad school, get myself set up at a new house starting with the higher band stuff and then I can build the low band superstation after Cycle 24 starts to slide down...

Dan
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73,
Dan
http://www.n3ox.net

Monkey/silicon cyborg, beeping at rocks since 1995.

NI0C

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Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2007, 10:48:41 AM »

"Its been hard work working new ones this past year, so I look forward to hearing all the bands crowded with DX again."

The reason its so hard, Rich, is that you've already worked the easy ones!  

Working the last 15 countries on the list is proving harder than working everything else to date!  I'm working new countries at a rate of about one per year now, and it was nearly two years between the last two band-zones!
 
73,
Chuck  NI0C
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WW5AA

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Your prediction on bottom of the cycle 23
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2007, 01:42:53 PM »

Wow, here I am hoping the cycle will wait till summer. Low band DX has been great this winter and I need a few more on 160 meters SSB. (;-)

73, de Lindy
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