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[KM4DYX]

My QTH is about 470 miles from the NCDXF beacon 4U1UN. I would think that a station at that distance would be difficult to copy on 20 given current condx and the take off angle involved. The VOACAP prediction program gives it a 0% probability at this moment (1330 UTC). Yet, the beacon is strong and I can even copy the 100 mw dash.

This is not a new or rare instance. I can usually copy the NY beacon most of the day. Anyone care to comment?

Thanks,

Al

[K0UA]

Well, it is Es season.  And there are E clouds nearly every day up in your part of the world.  Perhaps this might explain it. See if you still copy it in a month when the E clouds disappear.

[OZ8AGB]

Sunday 10m and 12m was open here in the EU in the late afternoon. Lots of FT8 and CW activity.

[WA4DOU]

Propagation programs, including VOACAP aren't capable of 100% accuracy at any time in the year and should only be regarded as predicting fairly accurate trends. Frequent operation on a single band only, will give you far more insight into it than any propagation program.

[OZ8AGB]

Turn on the radio on the band of interest and:

1) Call CQ on CW and check Reverse Beacon Network
or
2) Call CQ on a Digital mode and check Psk reporter

[K0UA]

Propagation programs, including VOACAP aren't capable of 100% accuracy at any time in the year and should only be regarded as predicting fairly accurate trends. Frequent operation on a single band only, will give you far more insight into it than any propagation program.

Exactly.

[K0UA]

Turn on the radio on the band of interest and:

1) Call CQ on CW and check Reverse Beacon Network
or
2) Call CQ on a Digital mode and check Psk reporter

This.  ^^

[KM4DYX]

Thanks all. I've used PSK Reporter and RB quite a lot and also WSPR. My interest was in the actual mode of propagation over this particular path. E-layer sky wave would seem to be the most likely, but I seem to recall hearing this beacon last winter as well.

[AF5CC]

There is a winter Es season as well.  Often centered around Christmas to New Years.

73 John W5TD

[N9FB]

There is a winter Es season as well.  Often centered around Christmas to New Years.

isn't E skip primarily 10 meters and above?  i am trying to understand the dynamics of working stations outside ground wave distance but in the 100 - 400 mile range on 20 meters in order to potentially obtain 20m WAS and states like OH are proving difficult from central Indiana (on 20m). 
I did work a station just 130 miles away in KY on SSB this year on 20m, copy was very weak but confirmable. 

any insights into what conditions make short distance contacts outside ground wave possible will be appreciated

[K0UA]

There is a winter Es season as well.  Often centered around Christmas to New Years.

isn't E skip primarily 10 meters and above?  i am trying to understand the dynamics of working stations outside ground wave distance but in the 100 - 400 mile range on 20 meters in order to potentially obtain 20m WAS and states like OH are proving difficult from central Indiana (on 20m). 
I did work a station just 130 miles away in KY on SSB this year on 20m, copy was very weak but confirmable. 

any insights into what conditions make short distance contacts outside ground wave possible will be appreciated

Plenty of Es on 20 meter too.