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Author Topic: Solar Cycle 25?  (Read 4530 times)

N9FB

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Solar Cycle 25?
« on: November 03, 2019, 07:43:44 AM »

so today i am seeing the "sunspot number" being listed as 13, but i dont know much about solar cycle science.

questions:

1. does 13 mean there are currently 13 sunspots in existence or, is that in the last month, or ...? (i thought we were at, or near, 0) 

2. has solar cycle 24 ended and 25 begun -- or is the picture too "gray" right now to know with certainty?

https://spaceweather.com
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AB4ZT

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 04:35:20 AM »

SSN (average of global observations) = 10g + s

g = number of sunspot groups

s = number of sunspots

so SSN 13 = 1 group with a total of 3 sunspots

The current sunspot group is from Cycle 24

There just was a spot from Cycle 25 that faded away quickly

The sun is transitioning from Cycle 24 to 25

73,  Richard

AB4ZT
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W1VT

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WA2ONH

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 07:06:51 AM »

From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
http://k9la.us/

My presentation at the 2019 Vette City Hamfest (Bowling Green, KY) titled “Vette City Hamfest October 2019 K9LA” is in the General link
http://k9la.us/Vette_City_Hamfest_October_2019_K9LA.pdf

Downloads: Approx 3,661 kb size PDF file of 30-page slide presentation

TALK OVERVIEW: Taking the Mystery Out of Radio Propagation and Solar Forecasts

TOPICS WE'LL COVER:
• Preliminaries
• Solar-Terrestrial data at www.qrz.com and its relation to propagation
• Cycle 24
• Propagation at solar minimum
• Cycle 25

Carl, Any Cycle 25 Sunspots yet?
Finally, a long duration Cycle 25 sunspot on July 8, 2019
• Assigned AR2744
• Likely the first ‘official’ Cycle 25 sunspot


Enjoy!
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73 de WA2ONH  <dit dit> ... Charlie
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Never be satisfied with what you know, only with what more you can find out."
   Dr David Fairchild 1869-1954 US Scientist

KF5KWO

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2019, 06:40:32 PM »

From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA.........

Thanks for posting that, very informative!  I’m still curious about how you can tell a cycle 24 sunspot from a cycle 25.  I’m off to look it up...
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KF5KWO

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2019, 06:42:29 PM »

From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA.........

Thanks for posting that, very informative!  I’m still curious about how you can tell a cycle 24 sunspot from a cycle 25.  I’m off to look it up...

From spaceweatherarchive.com:

“Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2744 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.”
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2019, 06:43:39 PM »

From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
http://k9la.us/

My presentation at the 2019 Vette City Hamfest (Bowling Green, KY) titled “Vette City Hamfest October 2019 K9LA” is in the General link
http://k9la.us/Vette_City_Hamfest_October_2019_K9LA.pdf

Downloads: Approx 3,661 kb size PDF file of 30-page slide presentation

TALK OVERVIEW: Taking the Mystery Out of Radio Propagation and Solar Forecasts

TOPICS WE'LL COVER:
• Preliminaries
• Solar-Terrestrial data at www.qrz.com and its relation to propagation
• Cycle 24
• Propagation at solar minimum
• Cycle 25

Carl, Any Cycle 25 Sunspots yet?
Finally, a long duration Cycle 25 sunspot on July 8, 2019
• Assigned AR2744
• Likely the first ‘official’ Cycle 25 sunspot


Enjoy!

tks for the helpful post!

looks like more good news may be popping: https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM
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KC6RWI

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2019, 04:36:47 PM »

That was a good tube link, I just saw another video one week newer! Thanks
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2020, 04:36:45 AM »

Reversed Polarity Sunspots Appear on the Sun
          by: Dr. Tony Phillips

Dec. 24, 2019: Solar Cycle 25 really is coming. Today, for the first time, there are two new-cycle sunspots on the solar disk–one in each hemisphere. This map of solar magnetic fields from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows their location:



We know these sunspots belong to the next solar cycle because of their magnetic polarity. Simply put, they are backwards. According to Hale’s Law, sunspot polarities flip-flop from one solar cycle to the next. During old Solar Cycle 24, we grew accustomed to sunspots in the sun’s southern hemisphere having a -/+ pattern. However, look at today’s southern sunspot:



It is the opposite: +/-. This identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 25.

Likewise, today’s northern sunspot has a reversed polarity compared to northern spots from old Solar Cycle 24. It, too, therefore, belongs to Solar Cycle 25.

The sun is currently in Solar Minimum–the nadir of the 11-year sunspot cycle. It’s a deep Minimum, century-class according to sunspot counts. The scarcity of sunspots has been so remarkable that it has prompted discussion of a possible “extended Minimum” akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century when sunspots were absent for decades. Such an event could have implications for terrestrial climate.

Today’s new-cycle sunspots (along with isolated new-cycle spots earlier this year) suggest that the solar cycle is, in fact, unfolding normally. A new Maunder Minimum does not appear to be in the offing. Forecasters expect Solar Cycle 25 to slowly gain strength in the years ahead and reach a peak in July 2025.

source: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/25/reversed-polarity-sunspots-appear-on-the-sun/
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2020, 08:57:25 AM »

anyone have a good update, article, or stats on the present status for solar cycle 25 (and/or the transition from 24 to 25)?
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AF5CC

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2020, 10:45:39 AM »

Yes, here is a message that was on the CQ-Contest reflector yesterday:


Early this month SWPC published their official updated prediction of
Solar Cycle 25 in a new user-interactive graph format. Their updated
prediction is based on the results of NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction
Panel.




www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression



SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125 with the
peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026. There is
broad consensus that Solar Minimum is ongoing this year -- or may
have already occurred -- and that Cycle 25 will have no major change
in the level of solar activity compared to Cycle 24.

For many years SWPC's solar cycle predictions have used the Royal
Observatory of Belgium's International Sunspot Number. SWPC's official
solar cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The
International Sunspot Number is typically about one third lower than the
SWPC sunspot number.


While this is SWPC's official Cycle 25 prediction, its important to note
there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members
of the space weather forecasting community. Most forecasts and
forecasters agree that the Cycle 25 is likely to be within plus or minus
20 percent of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027.


link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2020, 05:59:43 AM »

While not-so-optimistic predictions suggest solar cycle 25 will be similar to, or a slightly depreciated version of cycle 24, there are some optimistic prognostications out there too.  :)

Here is an example of a very hopeful prediction:
 
Quote from: https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/maybe-theres-hope-for-cycle-25.718000/
Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.

In the June 27, 2020 document titled “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude” they write:

“... we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”
[....]
They predict with 95% confidence that the cycle 25 amplitude will fall between 153 and 305 spots. This would be in the top five of those observed. There method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous.

source article: Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
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KC6RWI

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2020, 09:20:51 AM »

Are ham radio operators the only ones that benefit from strong solar cycle? It seems to me that these positive reports can only be aimed at radio operators, but is there any other use for a strong solar cycle.
I'll make a answer that I think would fit. (I'm guessing) It gives science a chance to learn more and every event is worth studying.
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K6AER

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2020, 10:11:25 AM »

A year ago, 20 meters was dead. Now we have propagation into the night. We are on the upswing. This will be my 6th cycle. Every 11 years there is the predictable gloom and doom from new hams.

Build the best station possible and enjoy what mother nature has provided for free.

If you want to see the sunspot cycle improve please send your $15 donation to the Propagation Fund at K6AER.com. I will guarantee the sunspot situation will improve.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 10:16:40 AM by K6AER »
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KC6RWI

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2020, 10:32:51 AM »

I'm too busy to send money right now, I am trying to figure how young you could be to have remembered 6 cycles, don't tell me I'll figure it out..
Also if I send money to your fund will it come back to 4 fold ?
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