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Author Topic: Solar Cycle 25?  (Read 4531 times)

W6RZ

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #45 on: January 11, 2021, 02:16:25 AM »

note-to-self: when you think of the "graphs" you learned to make by hand decades ago in school, expand the term to include charts and plots

The program used to create that Penticon solar flux graph is called xmgrace. As far as I know, it only runs on Linux.


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W6RZ

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #46 on: January 11, 2021, 03:02:07 AM »

Same graph updated to current date.

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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #47 on: January 11, 2021, 03:14:38 PM »

Same graph updated to current date.



that is awesome RZ -- thank you!  now if you could return to this thread and post an update every couple months that would be superb  :D

It's basically overlaying cycle 24 data with 25 data at the same juncture in the overall cycle and thus yields a good picture of whether cycle 25 is surpassing / mimicking / or underperforming cycle 24, right?
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #48 on: January 16, 2021, 07:35:07 AM »

Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:



is this a completely new hardware design or the same kind that was used by hams in 1958?
if the release date has been delayed due to lack of resources, please start a gofundme campaign -- you should be rich in no time...
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K1FBI

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #49 on: January 16, 2021, 09:54:34 AM »

I don’t know about charts and graphs. I do know that yesterday I talked on 10 meters from Connecticut to Ohio. That was done with 40 Watts and an indoor antenna. It seems like we’re heading in the right direction now.
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WB8VLC

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #50 on: January 22, 2021, 12:06:02 PM »

Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:



is this a completely new hardware design or the same kind that was used by hams in 1958?
if the release date has been delayed due to lack of resources, please start a gofundme campaign -- you should be rich in no time...

N9FB you need to think bigger, why settle for a flux number of 250, go for some gusto and try for a fun number like 1000 or how about 10's orders of magnitude better than a Carrington event and shoot for a number of 5000.


Just think of how much fun some 1.2 GHz or maybe even 2.4 Ghz F2 propagation would be.
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #51 on: January 23, 2021, 07:24:41 AM »

Quote from: W6RZ
Same graph updated to current date.



thanks again for that (and for calling it a graph!) :)  Looks like we are moving back to an upslope trend:


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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #52 on: January 30, 2021, 06:38:35 AM »

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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #53 on: February 28, 2021, 05:08:52 AM »

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K0UA

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #54 on: February 28, 2021, 07:02:45 AM »

Yeah according to that prediction we have to wait to late in 2022 to even get back to what we had with the spike in early December of 2020. That sucks. I need to finish out my 9 band DXCC and guess what two bands I need?  yeah you guessed it 12 and 10 meters. I still need 8 on 12 meters and 6 on 10 meters. And 60 more on 6 meters for that matter. Personally I think predicting sunspots is crap. I don't think it can be done. The spike in December 2020 proves that in my mind.
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73  James K0UA

N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #55 on: March 01, 2021, 04:17:52 PM »

Yeah according to that prediction we have to wait to late in 2022 to even get back to what we had with the spike in early December of 2020.  Personally I think predicting sunspots is crap. I don't think it can be done. The spike in December 2020 proves that in my mind.

wasn't the spike in 2010 similar to the one we saw in late 2020? i agree that predicting Nature is beyond our ken, but past patterns can be helpful in trying to make guestimates.  and in that context, we dont necessarily have to wait till late 2022 to get back to the recent spike because the predicted red curve is a smoothed average of spikes and dips, right?.  maybe a spike is just around the corner (hope springs eternal).
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W6QW

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #56 on: March 25, 2021, 01:46:09 PM »

For those optimists out there, here's a study that suggests that SC25 will be significantly stronger than the NOAA consensus prediction.  In the words of the authors:

"Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, depending on when the upcoming termination happens, and it is highly likely that it will certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e. similar to that of SC24."

Here's that article:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y

Please don't shoot the messenger - it's provided for you to just understand their methodology - draw your own conclusion.  Please hold your comments for five or six years to see if this radical assessment bares fruit.  I, for one, am rooting for them to be correct.
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N9FB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #57 on: April 22, 2021, 07:23:27 PM »

For those optimists out there, here's a study that suggests that SC25 will be significantly stronger than the NOAA consensus prediction. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y

Quote
Conclusion
Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, depending on when the upcoming termination happens, and it is highly likely that it will certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e. similar to that of SC24. Indeed, as can be seen in Figure 4b, if our prediction for the 2020 terminator time is correct, such a low value would be a severe outlier with respect to the observed behavior of previous sunspot cycles. Such a low value could only be reconciled with the previously observed sunspot cycles if the next terminator event is delayed by more than two years from our predicted value, which would extend the present low activity levels to an extraordinary length. We note also that the relationship developed herein would have correctly predicted the low amplitude of SC24 (from a terminators separation of 12.825 years) following the 2011 terminator—three years after the 2006 NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel delivered their consensus prediction (Pesnell, 2008). Finally, the arrival of the SC24 terminator will permit higher fidelity on the forecast presented.

thanks!  i keep thinking we may be on the brink of the big one :)  and i will continue that optimism till reality says otherwise :)
here is a real graph (so far) --

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KC6RWI

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #58 on: April 24, 2021, 07:12:03 PM »

I'm looking at solarham and the spots are not on the edge of the sun, they are getting closer to the middle (equator). Thats a good sign?
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K4EMF

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Re: Solar Cycle 25?
« Reply #59 on: April 25, 2021, 08:06:33 AM »

I'm looking at solarham and the spots are not on the edge of the sun, they are getting closer to the middle (equator). Thats a good sign?

I don't know...but I sure hope so.
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