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[GREYLINE]

Hello,

The current numbers are: SF 71  A 4  K 0, which isn't too bad considering where we are in the cycle, yet the bands have been total crap lately. Last week when the numbers were  67 11 3 I worked a ton of DX. The more I follow these solar numbers the more I feel like they really don't jive to real world conditions very often, except when the A index sky rockets and a noticeable disturbance is taking place. The only thing i'm noticing that's reliable is watching the auroral zone. If it dips too low I know with certainty that my path to EU will be effected.

Is there an explanation why the bands can be so bad yet the solar numbers are ok?

[K0UA]

Hello,

The current numbers are: SF 71  A 4  K 0, which isn't too bad considering where we are in the cycle, yet the bands have been total crap lately. Last week when the numbers were  67 11 3 I worked a ton of DX. The more I follow these solar numbers the more I feel like they really don't jive to real world conditions very often, except when the A index sky rockets and a noticeable disturbance is taking place. The only thing i'm noticing that's reliable is watching the auroral zone. If it dips too low I know with certainty that my path to EU will be effected.

Is there an explanation why the bands can be so bad yet the solar numbers are ok?

yep, I would agree with you. I don't have an answer, but I do agree with you.

[KC6RWI]

I asked the same question here on march 1 2019, my first question was "propagation numbers do they mean that much? I got a little better with my next question asking if the numbers were really good does that guarantee good propagation? The answers were complicated but in general the answer is no.
But I would love to see sfi at 100 or higher that is when things start to happen.

[W1VT]

If you read the fine print on propagation forecasts like VOACAP you will find that the correlation between propagation and the prediction models is only on a monthly basis.  Trying to fine tune the model with daily numbers doesn't improve the accuracy.

[OZ8AGB]

While not being an expert on this there are more factors than just SFI, K and A index.
First of all where on the planet was these numbers measured? The US? Europe?
What time of the day? And your band observations were they at the same time of the day?
Were you just listening to the bands or trying to call CQ for example on CW or digi and then check sites like Reverse beacon network and/or PSK reporter?

I guess that in these low sunspot days we are balancing on an edge and the MUF is sometimes just on the low side.