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Author Topic: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out  (Read 519 times)

N9FB

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A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« on: April 22, 2020, 08:52:13 AM »

Where the Power Might Go Out     source: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/04/

April 9, 2020: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out. New maps released by the USGS show where the power is most likely to fail: The Denver metropolitan area, the Pacific northwest, the Atlantic seaboard, and a cluster of Midwestern states near the US-Canadian Border.

Bright yellow and orange trace the trouble spots across the contiguous USA



Power companies have long been wary of the sun. Solar storms can cause strong electric currents to flow through commercial power lines–so strong that the lines can’t handle it. Fuses blow, transformers melt, and circuit breakers trip. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours.

Whether or not *your* power goes out during a solar storm depends on two things: (1) The configuration of power lines in your area and (2) the electrical properties of the ground beneath your feet. In areas of more electrically resistive rock, currents struggle to flow through the ground. Instead, they leap up into overhead power lines – a scenario that played out in Quebec in 1989.

The new maps are possible thanks to Earthscope–a National Science Foundation magnetotelluric survey of the upper 2/3rds of the contiguous USA. Earthscope mapped the electrical properties of deep rock and soil on a continent-spanning grid with points about 70 km apart. USGS researchers led by Greg Lucas and Jeffrey Love combined this information with the layout of modern power lines to estimate peak voltages during a century-class storm.


Electric powerlines
Sprawling power lines act like “solar storm antennas,” picking up currents and spreading the problem over a wide area.[i/]

They found a huge variation in hazard across the USA. “The largest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 27.2 V/km at a site located in Maine, while the lowest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 0.02 V/km at a site located in Idaho. That is more than 3 orders of magnitude difference,” they wrote in their research paper “A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid.” Notably, some of the most vulnerable regions are near big cities: Denver, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC.

To complete the hazard map, the researchers are waiting for a new magnetotelluric survey to cover the rest of the USA. It can’t come soon enough. The last “century-class” geomagnetic storm hit in May 1921 … 99 years ago.
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KC6RWI

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2020, 11:12:35 AM »

Its to bad they can't be underground, although the cost would be 10x I imagine.
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K5BM

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2020, 11:56:16 AM »

Inductance from the storm can wipeout power grids. Always have and always will!
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AC7CW

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2020, 04:25:40 PM »

Its to bad they can't be underground, although the cost would be 10x I imagine.

I once read that underground utilities cost less in the long run due to lower maintenance costs.
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KD0REQ

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2020, 11:17:21 AM »

but when an underground feeder goes, all your deferred maintenance costs are gone in a flash. not to mention the cost of plowing down the ducting.
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KH6AQ

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 02:34:22 PM »

Overhead vs. Underground, INFORMATION ABOUT BURYING HIGH-VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINES, Xcel Energy

Here are two of several sections:
"Life expectancy
Underground high-voltage transmission lines have a life expectancy of 40+ years, while overhead lines have a life expectancy of more than 80 years.

Costs
An underground 230 kV line costs 10 to 15 times the cost of an overhead line due to time, materials, processes, the need to include transition substations and the use of specialized labor."

https://www.xcelenergy.com/staticfiles/xe/Corporate/Corporate%20PDFs/OverheadVsUnderground_FactSheet.pdf

My comments
Underground lines should be less susceptible to geomagnetic fields because the loop area is smaller; the conductors are closer together. The earth offers essentially zero low-frequency magnetic field shielding.

The line-length challenges (higher 60 Hz VSWR on low-Z underground vs high-Z overhead lines) can be mitigated with HV DC transmission. Of course this comes with additional complexity in the AC-DC and DC-AC conversion stations.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 02:39:53 PM by KH6AQ »
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KM1H

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2020, 10:12:47 AM »

And Im right in the hottest spots for both!
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N9FB

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2020, 06:21:53 AM »

Quote
Sprawling power lines act like “solar storm antennas,” picking up currents and spreading the problem over a wide area.[i/]

They found a huge variation in hazard across the USA. “The largest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 27.2 V/km at a site located in Maine, while the lowest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 0.02 V/km at a site located in Idaho. That is more than 3 orders of magnitude difference,” they wrote in their research paper “A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid.” Notably, some of the most vulnerable regions are near big cities: Denver, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC.

To complete the hazard map, the researchers are waiting for a new magnetotelluric survey to cover the rest of the USA. It can’t come soon enough. The last “century-class” geomagnetic storm hit in May 1921 … 99 years ago.

so, the reason places like Texas, Arizona and California are not on the map is not because they are not vulnerable too, but rather because they have yet to complete their research...
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AC7CW

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2020, 02:30:22 PM »

One thing about a solar storm is that we have time to prepare. The power companies will have time to take vulnerable equipment offline. They could just take the vulnerable transformers offline or short their windings I suppose. From what I've heard discussed on radio shows the lead time for the transformers is measured in years and the skills involved to make them are rare. That is scary..

The White House took some action recently so at that level of government at least they are aware.
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K6AER

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2020, 01:44:24 PM »

How much is actual hard core data and how much is supposition.

In New Mexico power goes out all the time. Not from solar storms but from drunk drivers.
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K6BRN

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2020, 06:43:43 PM »

I've been through one solar storm that knocked out power in my lifetime.  Not really a big deal so far.  Been through several that knocked out comsats.  A direct hit from a very strong CME, as likely happened in the 1800's would be something new and likely to knock out power, satcom and ground comms for a while, globally.  But then, I live in CA at the moment.  From my perspective, a strong earthquake, which is MUCH more common, would do the same thing.

Plenty of possible disasters lurking about.  Like pandemics.  And war.

Hard to predict which ones will be most significant in our lifetimes.

Brian - K6BRN
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 06:51:06 PM by K6BRN »
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KD0VE

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2020, 02:31:03 AM »

"A solar superstorm can make your lights go out"  In September 1859 a massive solar flare (the "Carrington Event") damaged or destroyed telegraph systems all over the world.  A similar event today would decimate orbital assets and plunge the globe into darkness.

This effect can also be induced artificially by a properly designed nuclear weapon detonated at the right height over the center of the USA.  This effect was 1st noticed when above ground testing in the Pacific around 1950 trashed the street lights and phone system in Hawaii 600 miles away.

Such a weapon would virtually destroy the grid.  A congressional report done several years ago estimated that 90% of the US population would be dead in a year.  A very authorative book was written about this called "The Blackout Wars". 
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KC6RWI

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2020, 10:05:40 AM »

I have heard of the Carrington effect, I just read an interesting article about it on wikipedia.
In the last post there was mention of widespread death, I assume that this was due to food logistics that would loose communication?
Anyway I'll keep my rf gain set low so my radio can endure the EMF..
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KD0VE

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2020, 10:16:33 AM »

"In the last post there was mention of widespread death, I assume that this was due to food logistics that would loose communication"

The predicted loss of life was due to starvation and the complete breakdown of civilization.  Think for just a few minutes of the impact of the electricity for months or, more likely, years.  cities would be unlivable in a few days with no water or waste treatment not to mention most have at best only a few days of food.  Amish would likely make out fine (until the starving refugees from the cities showed up) but everyone else not a dedicated prepper would be in big trouble.
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K6BRN

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Re: A solar superstorm can make your lights go out
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2020, 11:17:01 AM »

Mark (KD0ZGW):

EMP caused by a high altitude nuclear event is local and momentary.  It will disrupt a lot of things for a short while in a limited area.  There are MUCH worse weapons. Hope NONE of them are EVER used.

Regarding a Carrington Event...  There will be widespread but limited damage.  Power grids will trip off wholesale and continue to do so for days.  But the base generating system is largely protected and the ground infrastructure has moved mostly to optical fiber, which has a high degree of immunity.  Local areas will move to backup power (you have your own generators and emergency fuel store, or solar, right?  I do.) for a time, while the power distribution system, which is hard to protect, is repaired.

The space infrastructure, and especially manned space vehicles will suffer badly.  But in the aftermath there will be a lot of learning and opportunity for improvement.

No "End of civilization as we know it".  Just another significant event in history, nowhere even close to WWI and WWII.  More like a .... pandemic.

Brian - K6BRN
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