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Author Topic: Emergency Preparedness Concerns  (Read 1559 times)

NA7V

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Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:13:29 PM »

Some background regarding my personal experience:
-Emergency Operations Coordinator for a large corporation (site was ~10,000 people)
-Trained in the various levels of FEMA incident command
-Some ARES experience with one 2 week deployment for a regional disaster
-Currently certified as a structural and wildlands firefighter and EMR medical responder

So, I have seen the emergency operations scene from the inside of a large corporation, the local county, the Medical Reserve Corp. and the CERT city organizations.

I have always been prepared at a basic level with 2 weeks supplies and equipment in my truck and a longer list of supplies at home. I am not a prepper so to speak, but just trying to be reasonably prepared for an unknown situation.

The recent virus situation has prompted me to think more about how quickly things can go sideways and in ways we don't expect. I have always been quite aware of how our "just in time" supply management has set us up for running out of perishables in about 48 hours. The general public hasn't seemed very aware this in the past but maybe we are all going to be more aware of this in the future.

My primary concerns are the following:
1. How disconnected the state and counties are from amateur radio resources (at least in my area of the country).
2. The lack of awareness of a solar storm incident and the potential outcome of one.

Here in Western Oregon it seems the subduction zone earthquake and potential tsunami are on the minds of the leaders and some planing and simulations occur. However, I hear nothing about preparation for a solar storm event. My understanding is we are overdue for another event and depending on the severity it could take out the power grid and most electronics. The last one melted all the telegraph wires but we weren't depended on electricity or electronics when it happened. Given that most gear we use and is used in public service is all solid state and we are depended on computers for everything, where would we be after a solar event? A solar event kind of makes a good argument for tube gear  as a possible back up.

I also sometimes wonder if many other areas of the country are better prepared just because they have to deal with the typical hurricane or tornado seasonal events. Here in Oregon we have not had a major situation since the floods in the early 90's. Other than an annual simulation we get no real practice. However, in regards to a solar event there seems to be no discussion.

Thoughts anyone?

Dave
NA7V

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
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K7AAT

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 03:55:46 PM »


    You ask,  "thoughts, anyone" .... and I must respond.....as a resident on the central Oregon coast,  I try not to think about the potential disaster awaiting us.... hoping to outlive the arrival of the impending Cascadia Event.   I have prepped a fair amount.... but dubious if it is sufficient. 
    Regarding a potential Carington event.... that would likely be the only other disaster that could supersede a Cascadia event,  it affecting the entire planet.   I do keep a KX3 wrapped and sealed in an EMP bag but am also dubious as to its ultimate effectiveness.  A vacuum tube radio would survive ...but what are you going to power it with.      We will see what others have to say on this subject.....
K7AAT
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KG7LEA

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »

There are a lot of moving parts to fitting volunteers of all kinds, not just hams, into emergency preparedness.

The first element is the emergency manager and his or her willingness to organize, train, and accept volunteer help. Untrained, unvetted volunteers are of little use. No EM interest—no volunteer hams. FEMA has a course and process for managing spontaneous volunteers. In one local city hams are not permitted in the amateur radio room without a city employee.

ARES can offer communications resources, but is also a pool of trainable team players. In my city there are standing slots in the EOC for volunteers, both ham and civilian. Volunteers in the EOC complete the same training as city employees. In North Carolina the hams are baked into the emergency management plans as volunteers who know how to use radios, not radios with volunteers attached. Different communities, different approaches.

Absent official recognition, ARES groups can help non-governmental organizations like neighborhood hubs, churches, shelters, feeding stations, and CERTs. These groups will need to talk to each other in an emergency, but won’t have phone numbers or even phones. The key is planning and training with the community groups involved. As with other endeavors, it is not who you know, it’s who knows you.

The biggest limitation I see from the volunteer end is the number of fit volunteers willing to train and be available, and the leadership. I do not over state in saying that the amateur radio community is pretty mature and not everyone is able to fall out for overnight field deployments. I interviewed the ARES head in one rural county after a major demonstration came up. His team of eleven was physically unable to respond to a multi-day, 24-hour response. He reached out to a nearby metro area and they responded. The rural county emergency manager had never really considered the hams as a resource and came away very impressed.

Amateur radio response in an emergency is more than throwing up a tent and camp chairs in the local park. Who are you going to talk to? Who is in charge? Hurricane Michael offers some lessons in deploying volunteers and the coordination necessary with emergency managers.

[Proud owner of a safety vest. It has pockets for candy bars. Make fun of me and no candy bars for you.]
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NA7V

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2020, 04:58:26 PM »

K7AAT,

Yes, living at the coast of Oregon would make you think about things. You don't have a lot of time to move to higher ground. You would be surprised at the number of people inland that ask what the sirens and signs are all about and are completely unaware of the issue.

KG7LEA

I won't make fun of your vest.

Yeah, the emergency managers make a big difference. The floods I was deployed to in Vernonia were interesting. We worked through the problems but it was quite chaotic for a while. However, that was back in the early 90's and I see a bigger disconnect between the governmental agencies and hams now. Recently I was working with some city managers and a fire dept. and there seemed to be very little understanding of how EOC's operate and how volunteer resources are utilized.

Dave
NA7V
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WB5X

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2020, 05:01:32 PM »

Keep several deep cycle batteries and a solar charger for use at your shack.  Keep a good supply of spare parts for the communication equipment that you will be using.  Keep up with the latest emergency training.  Get into a good active radio club that is into emergency services.

My emergency service started in 1960 and with the exception of my time in the army, has continued to the present.  I am currently active with the Texas Baptist Men's Disaster Relief communications.
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KA1CNK

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2020, 05:10:53 PM »

A brief look around the web and other things makes me think that in the current solar environment, we might be currently at the lowest risk for a CME impact.  Then again seems like correlation between other solar activity is not well understood.

If the implications of a major event seems to call for pretty ambitious actions and/or much more spare equipment and manpower than currently exists.  I think looking historically, there will be lots of resistance to having the estimated resources sitting around gathering dust somewhere until needed.  Look at the difficulty experienced getting relatively inexpensive supplies like PPE and medical equipment.  What happens if the grid goes down and hundreds of substation transformers need replacement and the lead-time to build them is about a year?  I don't have a clear idea of how hardened  the infrastructure is.  Me having extra ham gear in a metal box is an easy thing to do but, I don't know how much help that will be.  Even supplies stockpiled can't last indefinitely.
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NA7V

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2020, 05:30:31 PM »

A brief look around the web and other things makes me think that in the current solar environment, we might be currently at the lowest risk for a CME impact.  Then again seems like correlation between other solar activity is not well understood.

If the implications of a major event seems to call for pretty ambitious actions and/or much more spare equipment and manpower than currently exists.  I think looking historically, there will be lots of resistance to having the estimated resources sitting around gathering dust somewhere until needed.  Look at the difficulty experienced getting relatively inexpensive supplies like PPE and medical equipment.  What happens if the grid goes down and hundreds of substation transformers need replacement and the lead-time to build them is about a year?  I don't have a clear idea of how hardened  the infrastructure is.  Me having extra ham gear in a metal box is an easy thing to do but, I don't know how much help that will be.  Even supplies stockpiled can't last indefinitely.

To me  the fundamental issue is the grid can be hardened. I saw one estimate that it would cost around a half a billion in federal funds to achieve. If you think about the outcome it seems like it would be a high priority. A half a billion in today's federal budget isn't that significant if a country could prevent having the grid down for a year or more. I have seen estimates that say it might be 2-3 years to build all the needed transformers which apparently the system doesn't keep spares for.

Even if the grid was hardened most electronics would be damaged and since we rely on computers for our infrastructure and personal lives the impact would still be severe.

Before the early 1900's the country was not dependent on electricity and so the event in 1859 had little consequences (some sparks and a few telegraph operators got shocked) but now almost everything we need to keep the infrastructure healthy depends on computers. Can't pump fuel or process orders and the whole system is emptied in 48 hours from panic buying. We got a glimpse of it recently.

I think we haven't lived in the "electronic age" long enough to realize how fragile the "system" really is.

Dave
NA7V
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K9RJ

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2020, 06:31:27 PM »

Dave, You are right to focus on the grid. If we are really prepared for a "grid down" situation, most likely we will be prepared for almost everything else. Here are 5 good ones for where I live. If you live for example in the NorCal area,  you need to plan for regional forest fires. Your risk assessment will be unique to you.
1.   Grid Down: Could be caused by major earthquake (regional), Carrington event or EMP (national). Assume no government assistance, no power, no telephone, likely no texts. Local broadcasters may be able to operate temporarily but ultimately they will run out of power and go off-air. Pretty quickly nothing functions. You are on your own indefinitely.
2.   Earthquake – damage to property but grid is up or will be up in a short period.
3.   Pandemic
4.   Accident which causes someone in family to lose their mental capacity or physical capacity.
5.     Loss of health insurance.
I agree that the grid should be hardened although I think the cost will be way more than half a billion dollars. considering how much money is being wasted by Congress now, this will be "noise in the system".
There is no government plan for an EMP/grid down type of event that will help you. A great book on this subject is Lights Out: A Cyberattack, a Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath, by Ted Koppel.
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KD0REQ

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2020, 11:01:52 AM »

CNK, just saying, but solar panels are big sensitive diodes. an EMP shock or solar equivalent has a real good chance of blowing them. don't know what the Pentagon has discovered in this vein....
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N9AOP

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2020, 11:35:11 AM »

Since the sun rotates and the earth rotates hopefully the next Carrington event will strike the opposite side from us.
Art
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KD8SKM

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2020, 01:22:37 PM »

To all:

From what I know about solar panels I do not think a large Geo-magnetic storm would damage them - here is why:

Solar panels are wired up and down in series so any current induced in one direction would have an equal and opposite polarity in the other direction and effectively cancel itself out.  The physical size of a solar panel does not lend itself to picking up enough magnetic energy to cause damage either.  This could be considered common mode interference and a solar panel is pretty immune to that.  Differential mode would be problematic if it happened at a high enough level but is highly unlikely.

Far different a case for that 200+ mile long power transmission line.... it will resonate at a very low frequency electrically and induce large currents that the transformers at each end would see.  If they are high enough the transformers could fail or burn out if for a long enough time by saturation of the core in the transformer which turns into heat.

Also from what I have read the Severe Radiation Storms can cause reduced solar panel output - but they would still function at a useful level.

As for an EMP - again most of that energy is in the 10-30 MHz range and those bypass diodes can't respond that fast and an EMP would present itself as a common mode interference on a single panel.... long series strings depending on how they are wired could make that energy differential mode but again the diode is a standard silicon usually and not high speed.  EMP is here and gone in a few tens of nanoseconds.  I think today's solar panels and most of today's electronics would survive an EMP if its designed to Automotive or Military / Aerospace standards because of EMC / ESD protection that is employed.  Cheap stuff from overseas.... maybe not.

Hopefully we never have to test that theory...

Unplug your antenna coax when the radio is not in use as a precaution...

Cheers,

Rob
KD8SKM
DIY Solar for U
https://www.diysolarforu.com

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KF5LJW

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 01:11:21 PM »

Save the last bullet for yourself.
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AK4YH

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2021, 10:05:59 AM »

Hello. You say you are not a prepper but I beg to differ  ;) Prepper means being prepared, and that's what you are. There is no shame in it  :)

You are looking at emergency communications from the EmCom perspective, where the goal is to help the community at large... You might want to consider an alternate plan where focus, because of the gravity and extent of the situation, shifts from everyone to a small group of people... Gear and tactics then change quite a bit. You will have to worry about inter-group communications for instance, and low-current HF radios. Charging batteries will become much more of a challenge, assuming the power isn't coming back for months or years, as well as weight. I am not suggesting abandoning the community, but when things are dire, even first responders need to take care of their families. So have two plans... One from the EmCom perspective, and a second from a prepper's perspective...

Gil.
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K3XR

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2021, 10:22:21 AM »

Many hams find a niche in the hobby.  Involvement with emergency communications is one way to pursue the hobby.  I believe most participants are sincere in their endeavors.  As long as the activity is helpful and not harmful I don't see a problem.
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KK4GMU

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Re: Emergency Preparedness Concerns
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2022, 09:14:26 AM »

There are a lot of moving parts to fitting volunteers of all kinds, not just hams, into emergency preparedness.

The biggest limitation I see from the volunteer end is the number of fit volunteers willing to train and be available, and the leadership. I do not over state in saying that the amateur radio community is pretty mature and not everyone is able to fall out for overnight field deployments. I interviewed the ARES head in one rural county after a major demonstration came up. His team of eleven was physically unable to respond to a multi-day, 24-hour response. He reached out to a nearby metro area and they responded. The rural county emergency manager had never really considered the hams as a resource and came away very impressed.

I agree.  I've just started in a Florida emcomm group.  Average age is probably 70.  They are very experienced in radio and emcomm procedures, most with over a decade of experience with both. And the volunteers are exceptionally integrated into the County Sheriff's department.

But when it comes to deployment to shelters pre- and during the event, which is the primary mission, more than half opt out for several reasons:
- Physical limitations
- Need to be home with spouse, although spouses are invited to accompany, but how many spouses would agree?
- Concerns with shelter security.  No personal weapons allowed by volunteers.  But are shelterees vetted for weapons or sanity?

I believe it is incumbent for such emcomm groups to equip and train those who cannot be deployed to do what they can do from home, although I'm not sure yet what productive function can be provided from the home location.
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