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K9LA ARTICLE: Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
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WA2ONH
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Posts: 714
K9LA ARTICLE: Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
«
on:
August 01, 2020, 10:31:06 AM »
From the Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA site ...
This is my Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
http://k9la.us/body_index.html
NEW for August 2020 in the MONTHLY FEATURE link:
Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
http://k9la.us/Aug20_Cycle_25_Predictions.pdf
An 8-Page downloadable file of approx 530 kb in size
"I’m writing this at the end of July, and at this time I’m aware of 27 predictions for Cycle 25."
"The following table lists the 27 predictions that I’m aware of, and they are in ascending
order of the predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number. There’s quite a range to the predictions
– from a low of 50 +/-7 to a high of 229 +/- 25. What this tells us is that we still don’t
fully understand the process that makes sunspots."
"What we’re seeing in all 27 predictions is the scientific method. You propose a hypothesis, and
then validate or shoot down the hypothesis. Predicting a football game, and then waiting several
hours to validate your prediction is very common. But a solar cycle, being on the order of 11
years, means the validation could be a long way off."
"Even a prediction at solar minimum may take 4 years to validate since the average rise time
of a solar cycle is around 4 years."
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73 de WA2ONH <dit dit> ... Charlie
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Never be satisfied with what you know, only with what more you can find out."
Dr David Fairchild 1869-1954 US Scientist
K6SDW
Posts: 528
Re: K9LA ARTICLE: Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
«
Reply #1 on:
August 01, 2020, 11:54:51 AM »
Excellent reference ~ thanks
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KM1H
Member
Posts: 11155
Re: K9LA ARTICLE: Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
«
Reply #2 on:
August 20, 2020, 01:23:26 PM »
Having experienced Cycle 19 even up on 6M for world wide openings I hope to live thru another and for others to join in the fun.
At least there wont be any reason to give away bands to Techs.
Carl
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K6SDW
Posts: 528
Re: K9LA ARTICLE: Cycle 25 Predictions - August 2020
«
Reply #3 on:
August 20, 2020, 05:47:28 PM »
Sunspot cycle? IMO, man made noise and lack of hams getting on the air, probably too busy surfing the Internet, is cause of crappy propagation.
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