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Author Topic: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???  (Read 710 times)

K3NRX

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The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« on: August 20, 2020, 05:49:12 AM »


https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1775-new-research-suggests-solar-cycle-25-could-be-strongest-in-50-years/

Being the sardonic sarcastic snarky skeptical doubting Thomas that I am, I vote: ain't buying it...I will believe it when I believe it....what say you?...

V
K3NRX
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K3NRX

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The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2020, 05:50:09 AM »


https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1775-new-research-suggests-solar-cycle-25-could-be-strongest-in-50-years/

Being the sardonic sarcastic snarky skeptical doubting Thomas that I am, I vote: ain't buying it...I will believe it when I believe it....what say you?...

V
K3NRX
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KA1CNK

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2020, 06:34:12 AM »

I've seen opinions ranging from we're heading into a maunder minimum type event to a cycle of epic proportions.  I'm absolutely sure I don't know.
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K4HB

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2020, 07:03:59 AM »

Don't know anything about the experts making this forecast, but hope they are right. Would love to see a good solar cycle before checkout time. But I've come to the conclusion we can only wait and see. These guys are good at what they do, but they can't forecast future solar activity as easily as meteorologists can forecast the weather. Dr. Hathaway first forecast Cycle 24 would be huge, then changed that later.  I respect his knowledge and ability, he's one of the best astrophysicists we have. But we saw how Cycle 24 turned out.

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WA9AFM

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2020, 07:04:41 AM »

Am I buying it, well I would have to answer with a 'definite maybe'.
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K0UA

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2020, 07:18:38 AM »

Weather men can do a lot of things, but forecasting the weather more than about 3 days with any accuracy is not their strong suite.  And solar forecasters go to the same school of thought.
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73  James K0UA

W5RG

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2020, 07:47:49 AM »

Boy lets hope so..I would sure like to live thru another one..Time to start thinking about a Sterba Curtain for 10 & 12 meters.
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WA9AFM

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2020, 08:33:36 AM »

Am I buying most of it, but I would have to answer with a 'definite maybe'.
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K6AER

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2020, 08:55:03 AM »

Boy lets hope so..I would sure like to live thru another one..Time to start thinking about a Sterba Curtain for 10 & 12 meters.

Sterba Curtin? That is a lot of work to get the same gain as a 3 element beam.

This will be my 6th sun spot cycle. 20, 17 and 15 are recovering sooner than I expected. Twenty Meters is even open late at night.

Still the biggest hindrance to HF propagation is man made noise. I live in the high desert. When I tell someone my noise level is zero they don't believe me. I spent a year in Michigan on the St.Clair river. My noise level was S9+15. If it was not for hams running a KW I would not have had any HF contacts.

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N9AOP

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2020, 10:11:55 AM »

I remember a time when 10 was open to the world 24/7.  But this time I believe we are going towards a Maunder.  About 5 years ago a group of astronomers looking at other stars the mass of our sun said that Maunder occurred 1/5th of the time.
Art
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KC6RWI

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2020, 10:20:51 AM »

It does say that they where correct in predicting other cycles. I'm not buying it, but we are probably always in the path of extra energy being blasted towards us from the sun.
I wonder how they kept records in 1740, maybe they just able to the spots?
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KC6RWI

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2020, 10:32:38 AM »

I remember 10 being open, about 1974, there was a constant change going on and sometimes just good condtions. It was entertaining enough to just sit there and listen to the stations coming in. An sort emission would be answered with a return call. Its spoiled me as I left the hobby for quite some time and expected to have similar experience.
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K0UA

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Re: The Latest Cycle 25 Speculation Are you buying it???
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2020, 11:16:36 AM »

Boy lets hope so..I would sure like to live thru another one..Time to start thinking about a Sterba Curtain for 10 & 12 meters.

Sterba Curtin? That is a lot of work to get the same gain as a 3 element beam.

This will be my 6th sun spot cycle. 20, 17 and 15 are recovering sooner than I expected. Twenty Meters is even open late at night.

Still the biggest hindrance to HF propagation is man made noise. I live in the high desert. When I tell someone my noise level is zero they don't believe me. I spent a year in Michigan on the St.Clair river. My noise level was S9+15. If it was not for hams running a KW I would not have had any HF contacts.

You got that right. When I do screen shares with new hams and look at their waterfall, I see tons of "junk" on a lot of them.
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73  James K0UA
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