Whether or not we can have successful hamfests of course hinges mostly on the progress of vaccines and the rate at which governments loosen regulations. But there is also the mob psychology of any gathering to consider.
If "everyone" believes that it's safe to go to a hamfest, and they believe that "everyone" else is on board with that, hamfests can proceed. But if some believe that lots of others will not attend, and therefore the event will be small and sparse with nobody bringing goodies for sale, then they may well decide to roll over and get more sleep and blow the whole thing off. This is not as unusual as it may seem. In the past,, when there was a chance of rain within miles, many would just decide that "nobody" will go, so they didn't either and the prophesy was fulfilled, and it was a rather sparse event.
Years ago, I was one of the three fellows who founded and ran the Hosstraders in New England for 34 years. Those were different times. People would come in the rain. Somehow it seemed urgent. Now, with Ebay, QTH and online ordering from the dealers, it isn't as urgent that we go. We can text and email our pals if we can't find them on the air. We can buy things without effort.
Certainly I know that hamfests are not just "stuff". They are social gatherings as well. But when attendance falls off, and your old buddies stay home, it's a downhill snowball. I'd like to think I could go to a few more plain old hamfests before I make the trip beyond the ionosphere, but my optimism is fading.
73 de Norm W1ITT