It might take longer but ham radio will die like model trains. Todays youth has little patience for learning.
Hi Mike (K6AER):
Chin up! It's not THAT gloomy!
Humanity, as a whole, changes very slowly. Based on my own experience with my own children and with mentoring newly minted engineers and techs, its roughly the same percentages as it was 40 years ago:
Some people have brains, know how to use them and do.
Some people are lazy (rich or poor, smart or stupid) "entitled" and squander whatever they have, doing as little as possible, then blame everyone else for their situation.
And some people are just average (or even below), but do their best, work hard and don't give up. They tend to do well.
That said, there is an entirely new world of relevant and key technologies that have gone far, far beyond ham radio. Particularly in the multiple fields of communication. And most productive, young people put their efforts into them rather than the sideline that is this hobby.
It really doesn't matter - amateur radio has always been in the minority, and gets along just fine. Most hobbies are like that.
For example, model trains.
My next door neighbor in CA is a surgeon and has an enormous (to me) train layout designed to drop down from a (large) garage ceiling. He's WAY younger than me.
I have train sets in CA and CT. Pretty decent ones (that I take down when not in use - NOTHING like my neighbor's above) that Steven Cryan helped with - look him up. He's an East Coast train enthusiasts hub for this hobby and professional layout designer/builder.
https://ctrivermuseum.org/events/connecticut-river-museum-speaker-series-steve-cryan-steam-power-of-the-ct-river-valley/https://www.zip06.com/local-news/20211208/cryan-leads-steam-trains-talk-on-dec-16/The nearby city of El Segundo CA has a yearly christmas block party near Imperial Blvd. that features an entire front yard of automated trains that almost every young child delights in - while the older teens help set it up and run it.
My kids, now in their late 20's still look forward to putting up our trains, every year, and playing with the layouts, though they've completed college and been out on their own for some time.
So, like ham radio, the model train hobby is still alive and well. But it's one of MANY, and there are so many interesting choices, today. So perhaps it's not "THE" hobby anymore. But it doesn't need to be.
Brian - K6BRN