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Author Topic: Rolling Blackouts in the South  (Read 1393 times)

K6BRN

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2021, 11:16:13 AM »

Dereck (KF5LJW):

The purpose of storage rather than primary batteries is to store power, not produce it, so any "cost to produce vs. value of energy supplied" is pretty meaningless.

Spacecraft have phased in Li-Ion storage cells on busses capable of supplying 15KW and more  - a LOT of power for a satellite.  After some early hiccups, they are proving to have excellent capacity, charge/discharge life and calendar life - a great many satellites have a 15 year or better design life (12 year contract life).  But Li-Ion batteries are expensive.

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/goes-r_liion_batt_life_test_and_batt_perf_jtucker.pdf

"The answer is nuclear energy. Clean with more than 1,000,000 years of proven cheap supply right under your feet. Problem is the Green Mafia is in control of your lives, and you do not even know it. They have most people brainwashed. The brainwashing started when you were young and in school and continues to this day."

If only that were true ...  I loved the concept of nuclear energy as a child, then I worked with it as an adult, first in college in the physics lab and then professionally, investigating space radiation effects using particle accelerators for upset testing and isotope based total dose radiation sources.  I realized through direct experience just how very, very dangerous it is.  Let me repeat that in technical terms:  "This sh***t is fri**ing dangerous!"

Nuclear energy (fission) is "clean" - until you lose containment, are exposed or have to dispose of used nuclear fuel.  Then the picture changes - abruptly and with finality.

Loss of containment, as with Fukishima and Chernobyl, means depopulation of hundreds of square miles for an indefinite period, and elevated cancer rates far beyond that.  In the USA, Three Mile Island is the most commonly known disaster - but there are others, like the ill-fated Santa Susana sodium cooled plant in California that melted down in 1959 and the more recent cooling loop failures (leaks) that is driving shutdown and scrapping of the San Onofre twin reactors.  Health impacts and cleanup costs, now in the $Bs will be accumulating for many more years.

Scrapping of the Nuclear carrier Enterprise carried a $750M bill just to clean up waste from its EIGHT reactors, before disassembly could proceed.

https://laist.com/2018/11/13/santa_susana_nuclear_site_woolsey_fire.php#:~:text=In%20July%201959%2C%20one%20of,Valley%2C%20Chatsworth%20and%20Canoga%20Park.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/06/06/this-is-how-the-navy-plans-to-break-the-big-e/#:~:text=Enterprise%2C%20the%20world's%20first%20nuclear,the%20Pentagon%20gets%20its%20way.&text=Five%20years%20and%20%24750%20million,and%20the%20Navy%20decommissioned%20it.

And there is no place to store this deadly material, with fuel from many decommissioned power plants stored on-site indefinitely, usually right next to critical waterways formerly used for cooling.

While the Northeast has greatly benefitted from nuclear power plants, many laid down under Admiral Rickover's civilian nuclear program (the "Yankee" series of New England power plants), we've made absolutely no progress in setting up a system to make them safer, or dispose of the waste properly.  One of my best friends used to work in the nuclear industry in CT and she left it because there is virtually zero research going into these areas (fission plants).

I don't think Uncle Joe has much to do with it - we all got here together - reality caught up with us.  If we are going to use nuclear in the future, fusion still offers the promise of really clean power - but the big major breakthrough to make it nondestructive and practical is yet to come.

On the other hand - if we COULD pave over half of Nevada with solar cells, and somehow store and distribute the energy, we'd have more than enough power to go around in CONUS.  If.  If.  If.

Maybe we could exclude Vegas and Reno from paving over and make Nevada the new "gold mine" of energy for the country.  Very lucrative for the Nevada tax base, too!  :)

Brian - K6BRB

« Last Edit: February 17, 2021, 11:22:42 AM by K6BRN »
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KF5LJW

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2021, 01:15:55 PM »

Brian with all do respect, most of what you have said are man made problems and way out of date. I started my career with a large utility before switching to communications, and now working for the same utility with nuclear reactors. Still doing communications, but I keep my eye on the ball. 

You keep bringing up WW-II era nuclear reactors and the issues from 60 years ago. France, Japan, Russia, and China have no spent fuel rod problems, nor should the USA. The USA are the only morons who store spent fuel rods. All other countries reprocess the spent rods like aluminum cans and reship back to nuclear plants. In 1974 the USA was building a reprocessing plant, Kerr McGee until the traitor and anti-nuke Jimmy Carter put an end to it. Then Jimmy went to work brainwashing the country with Green Peace and other members of the Green Mafia enlisted to spread disinformation and propaganda. They went to the heart, our public schools system.   

Today Green Peace admits they got it all wrong and were part of the conspiracy and brainwashing. Chernobyl was a WW-II reactor and the Russians caused the accident by seeing what happens if you turn off the cooling system. They found out, it blows up. Japan built reactors on a fault line and on a coast line prone to Tsunami. Guess what happened?

Renewables have a place but can never be a primary source or relied upon. FWIW people in TX, OK, AR, and LA are tired of shoveling Global Warming off the streets, walkways, driveways and doing without power because renewables failed them. Unlike California, TX is not going to put up with that nonsense policy anymore coming from the left coast island called Austin.

As for Nevada, quit drinking the Kool-Aid folks. Physically impossible to transport power across country without loosing most of it transporting from point A to B. There is no voltage high enough that man could contain and control to transport electricity across the country. If you think it is possible, you are either brainwashed believing lies, or ignorant and do not know anything about Ohms Law.

The Smart Grid being developed by utilities and government are fast breeder reactors, one in every neighborhood like cell towers that can fit in a home size basement out of sight and mind. If a reactor needs to go off-line, the adjoining reactors pick up the capacity. It is called distributed power. With the smart grid the government and utilities will control your energy usage telling you when you can and cannot use power. You shall comply like it or not.

I have no problem with renewable energy. You can use all of it you want. I made a lot of money off renewables. Built hundreds of off-grid solar mico-tower sites and pipe line telemetry on I-10 through TX, AZ, and NM. Even built a couple of commercial interactive 250 Kw systems on a couple of Walmarts in TX. Walmart used the Green Mafia to pay for it with your tax dollars saving them a $500 a day to add to profits, all paid for by YOU.

As for utilities they will have the last laugh. Right now they are not investing a lot of money on infrastructure watching and waiting. Right now they let the public pay for everything. You put up solar and maintain it at your expense while they enjoy the profits shared among stock holders. Once the public figures it out and begins rebuilding the grid with new power plants, they know exactly where the money will come from, YOU!
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K6BRN

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2021, 04:36:51 PM »

Dereck (KF5LWJ):

With all due respect... :)

"Brian with all do respect, most of what you have said are man made problems and way out of date."

Nothing out of date about my nuclear plant info - and none of it dates from WWII.  Shippingport (the oldest commercial plant) went on line on 1958, 13 years AFTER the war.  San Onofre was a more modern plant, was completely refurbished during the last decade and then taken off line just a few years ago due to systemic leaks in the primary cooling loop and small radiation leaks to the outside.  It's just down the road from me.

There are about a hundred operating, commercial, power generating reactors in the USA and about 40 that have been decommissioned due to age, persistent leaks or accidents - more every day.  Most of the operating plants in the USA are quite old, with the newest (two) being in Tennessee.

The events I described are pretty well distributed over 60 years.  And they are not the only incidents.  And the consequences of these incidents have in each case, with the exception of San Onofre, resulted in permanent abandonment of the area.  That's a pretty big consequence.

"France, Japan, Russia, and China have no spent fuel rod problems, nor should the USA. "

The USA has NOT handled spent fuel reprocessing well.  But neither has it supplied reprocessed fuel to questionable 3rd party nations intent on building a nuclear arsenal (explosive or simply poisonous), the way some other nuclear capable countries have.  Our poor handling of this matter is a problem in the making.  A big one.  Glad you agree!

"Chernobyl was a WW-II reactor and the Russians caused the accident by seeing what happens if you turn off the cooling system."

Chernobyl experienced a hypercriticality event that lead to a steam explosion AFTER numerous safeties had been disabled - for what was basically a safety test,  Ironic.

THREE MILE ISLAND suffered a cooling system event that lead to their partial core melt-down.  And a bad movie.

Don't even get me started about Homer Simpson and Springfield Nuclear!  :)

"The Smart Grid being developed by utilities and government are fast breeder reactors, one in every neighborhood like cell towers that can fit in a home size basement out of sight and mind."

I remember that dream - from the '60's.  What a great opportunity to put a nuclear disaster in your neighborhood.  The ultra-low enrichment reactors were supposed to be self-moderating and very safe - unless they leaked, which is a persistent problem.  Or unless the sodium cooled cores caught fire (in some proposed more compact approaches, others had only a single water cooling loop). And they are NOT small due the the use of steam generation.  Turbines, pumps, cooling loops and towers are never 'basement sized".

As far as using "fast breeder reactors" - and putting them in every neighborhood... I don't think so.  A byproduct of that process is Plutonium, the deadliest poison on earth.  I don't think it'll get the UL Seal of Approval any day soon.

"Unlike California, TX is not going to put up with that nonsense policy anymore coming from the left coast island called Austin."

Ummmm... Dereck .... Texas just fell into that deep pit hook, line and sinker, deeper and farther than California ever did - and will be fixing the problem for the next ten years, IF they decide to act on it.  And it's NOT just Texas and California that have neglected power grids.  This problem is widespread.

"Physically impossible to transport power across country without loosing most of it transporting from point A to B."

Maybe - think"  "Room temperature superconductors."  THAT would be a game-changer, wouldn't it?

Regardless, there are plenty of 1,000 mile transmission line up and running, and a few that approach 2,000 miles.  And with HVDC its estimated to be economically feasible up to 4,000 miles or so, with current prime power sources.  And IF we use renewables, loss is not quite as important.

The REAL problem is STORING the generated renewable solar, wind and even tidal power for use when it is needed, and then maintaining a reliable reserve capacity to use when these "periodic" sources go offline.  Using renewables without planning and care can and has destabilized electrical grids, now that it makes up a significant fraction of prime power.

This is a PART of what happened in Texas.

BTW - utilities very likely will not have the last laugh- they may just screw up - never underestimate the power of stupidity.  In the Enron scandal, the company was destroyed and major executives responsible for the mess went to jail or died (in some interesting ways).

Dereck - I respect your opinion, but we just disagree on these issues.

Best Regards,

Brian - K6BRN

« Last Edit: February 17, 2021, 04:41:10 PM by K6BRN »
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KBKZ2105

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2021, 04:54:58 PM »

Here is what you do.  You get a bunch of wood and a wood burning furnace or stove in addition to your HVAC system.  You get a storage tank that can hold fuel for your generator that you are going to need.  Problems solved.  I trust you will already have food. 
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N8AUC

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2021, 05:11:56 PM »


Yes.  There has been great pressure to shut down nuclear, natural gas, coal and oil fired generators and phase in "clean, renewable" wind and solar power.  Much of this has been done without regard to preserving system reserve capacity and redundancy. 
<snip>
Deterioration of our national electrical grid is one reason why I have backup generators at all of my QTHs (and have to USE them at least a few times a year) as well as a modest solar backup capacity for the amateur stations, a few lights and charging purposes.

Brian - K6BRN

Brian,
That's what happens when we allow a bunch of environmentalists, with no knowledge of electrical generation and distribution, to be in charge of deciding the future of both. Perhaps some consultation with people who actually KNOW what they're doing, with a new set of goals in mind, might have led to a better outcome. But you're right. At the moment, it a giant, epic faceplant.

The second item is a pet peeve of mine, and exactly the reason I have a backup generator at home (like you). How in God's name can you expect to run any business, let alone an electric utility, without maintaining your means of production and distribution? I attribute that shortsightedness to letting a bunch of people with nothing more than a shiny MBA run a business, who know little to nothing about the business they're trying to manage, except the accounting needed to reach the bottom line. Then they manage the bottom line for next quarter's financials, without regard to whether or not they'll be in business in 3-5 years. If I had a dollar for every company I've ever worked for that suffered from "terminal MBA syndrome" like that, I'd be comfortably retired by now.

The boneheads who inhabit "disneyland on the potomac", and their "green new deal" cronies don't know diddly squat about energy production or distribution. Case in point, look at Texas this week.

73 de N8AUC
Eric
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K6BRN

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2021, 08:07:21 PM »

Hi John (N8AUC):

"How in God's name can you expect to run any business, let alone an electric utility, without maintaining your means of production and distribution? I attribute that shortsightedness to letting a bunch of people with nothing more than a shiny MBA run a business, who know little to nothing about the business they're trying to manage, except the accounting needed to reach the bottom line."

I worked as an executive  for a major Aerospace firm for quite some time.  During that period, I had to wrestle with corporate offices moving from 1990's "Five Year Plans" for business paths and new technology development, to one year (2000's) and then an emphasis mostly on quarterly results (2010's).

I suspect the electric companies are doing exactly the same thing (as are many others), and it creates a very myopic and ineffective corporate culture.

My own incentives, which were the majority of my compensation, shifted from a balance of  technology development, sales and delivery to mostly P&L and RONA (which was OK, too) and then finally to 95% stock price (shareholder return) with monthly rather than yearly bonuses.  The latter incentive policy is and was simply destructive.  Not only did it focus leadership on VERY short term goals, but it vastly diluted the link between accomplishment and reward.  It was driven by pressure from major stockholders (primarily mutual funds and their managers) to increase stock price immediately, at any cost, and never, ever let it sink.

Of course, that means that internal R&D and infrastructure development/maintenance is BAD, because (even with tax incentives) this is cash flow that COULD be diverted to boost traditional financial metrics that help stock price rise.  And it discouraged any risk taking at all, as any failure, big or small, could be noticed and impact stock price.  So leadership began to minimize R&D funding and moved to quarterly rather than annual or 5-year planning.  While this may be a fund managers dream, it drains the firm of vitality and is insane, in the long term.

Another side effect was that companies with existing product lines had to lean on them for a much longer time and look to startup (and other) company acquisitions rather than internal development for new technology - because that was viewed as less risky by investors.  But after the new company was "digested" (a few years), they fell under the same rules and soon became stagnant, too.

Having spent time with our (several) CEOs, CFOs and in corporate training events at the special school they built for just this purpose, I was TRAINED in this mindset as it evolved, and this training included competitive simulations and face-to face, staged scenarios (including professional actors), with close observation and grading that determined our upwardly mobility.

In the years just prior to my first retirement, it became very, very difficult to develop and field new technology.  Every way possible had to be explored to circumvent conventional doctrine in order to remain competitive and relevant.  Very luckily, myself and some close friends and colleagues had previously developed an evolving line of systems that performed and sold very well and generated a lot of positive cash flow.  Because of this we were allowed to be a little ... different.  But it was very, very hard work.

You will find similar situations at many large firms today, in many fields.  The consequence is that we are losing our efficiency and technology edge at a rapid pace.  And not just in the USA.

Brian - K6BRN
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NQ3M

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #36 on: February 18, 2021, 01:00:15 PM »

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KF5LJW

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #37 on: February 18, 2021, 06:32:27 PM »

Dereck - I respect your opinion, but we just disagree on these issues.

Best Regards,

Brian - K6BRN
I am good with that Brian, but you already know that. Take care.
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WB8VLC

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2021, 10:43:40 AM »

northwest oregon we were without power until today, in total 9 days others will be out weeks and we are in the city of Salem. 

2 inch ice of radiall ice on everything started last  friday and power went out to 650000 thousand people.
Half had power restored in 2 days then others over the next 2 or 3 days while the rest of us about 90 percent of another 25000 yesterday and today.

Stores and gas stations only started working after day 2 and cash only, by day 3 and 4 most was back online except for a couple hundred thousand homes.

I had a brand new 4KW harbor freight predator generator which we bought last september after our devastating wildfires and the generator died after 5 minutes, and my luck Harbor freight will not stand by it.

I was fortunate to receive a 1500 watt loaner from a friend and with the generator and a fireplace and wood we faired fine in my neighborhood, sunnyslope of salem oregon, 90 % of  2500 houses had no generators and many no fireplaces due to historically moderate winter weather.  for 8 days perople were living in cars half the time using car heaters.

Warming shelters were not open because the temps were in the high 30's to mid 40's and some pencil neck emergency co-ordinator for salem and most of oregon determined that shelters would only open when the airport temp was under 32 F, the salem airport is around sea level while the sunnyslope area of salem is 500 to 1200 feet elevation so temps here were 32 and below.


The only thing working was cell phone texting and no other cell services work, we couldnt even research city or state updates because cell sites were limiting communications for first 3 to 4 days to text only so we could not get info on what to do.

The city of salem gets a F grade and the state of oregon also and F for lack of communications contrary to what politicians in warm homes will say there was no emergency declaration done that reached ground zero, a paper declaration on local news channels is no good if people are starting indoor warming fires and starting residences on fire as were monitored by salem fire throughout the 8 days for us and there is no way to get info.

Since oregons covid vaccination is a total failure, we are still vaccinating 80 and above and prisoners, people do not want to co-ordinate with neighbors to share aid and comfort, again the state and city gets a double F failing grade here, and any state city rep can come to my neighborhood if they say the contrary but I'd bet they would get hung out to dry if the had the guts to come to the sunnyslope are of Salem Oregon which none have the integrity or guts to do so enough said on useless city and state reps.

Politicians will say its there finest hour but when you are at ground zero and see no city services for 8 days you realize that politicians give on air happy talk while people are freezing without help.


As to what worked, NUMBER 1 WAS HEAT AND ONLY WOOD FOR HEATING IN WOOD STOVES AND GAS FOR GENERATORS.  WOOD WAS PLENTY FROM CUTTING UP ANS INSIDE DRYING OF DOWNED TREES CUT WITH ONLY GAS CHAIN SAWS, GAS WAS AVAILABLE AND ONLY GAS GENERATORS WORKED.  PROPANE WAS LIMITED IN AVAILABILITY BUT SOME HAD IT AND IT WORKED ALSO BUT WOOD AND GASOLINE WERE MAJOR LIFE SAVERS.


None of the usual ham radio HF nets worked nor were they on the air, i only had contact on HF with the veterans net on 20 meters and KL2AX  in new mexico was invaluable for wahtever info he could get, I was trying to get info on wife and son in Austin texas who got hit the same time Oregon did and KL2AX stayed around for several hours checking on my health and wellfare until I received an limited text notifying all ok with my texas family although they were evacuated to a safe location.
 
In the first  3 days local VHF was used, 2 meters but unfortunately after the major 2 meter players had power restored most local weather related info dissapeared and 2 meters was of no use and we left in the dark for 5 more days were designated the forgotten 25 thousand.


 Again HF radio use was limited use and while there were no real oregon emergency nets to be found the only info net was the VA group on 20 meters throughout the entire ordeal and KL2AX gets an AA grade while others get a C grade such as 2 meters nets which is still a better  grade than our states and cities F grades.


 As of today 95 % are back with power and power crews from every area of Oregon are working here in the hardest hit are of Salem restoring power.

These linemen are working in groups 24/7 and my sincere notice of appreciation especially to the Pendleton, Herrmiston and Chemelaw linemen who came from hundreds of miles outside of Salem for working 8 days non stop to get our sunnyslope neighborhood of Salem Oregon back on, these kids, linemen as young as newbies only 19 years old receive a AAA grade.
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K6BRN

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2021, 01:13:22 PM »

Michael (WB8VLC):

Sorry to hear about your power outages due to ice storms.  Even when everything is in the best of shape - trees, electrical lines, etc.,  a few inches of ice adds massive weight and things break and come down.

Went through quite a few of those is CT and MA in my earlier years.  I still keep backup generators ready at my CT (and CA) homes.

"I had a brand new 4KW harbor freight predator generator which we bought last september after our devastating wildfires and the generator died after 5 minutes, and my luck Harbor freight will not stand by it."

Yes - that's why any generator used for emergencies needs to be from a reliable brand, and has to be stored AFTER draining the gas from the tank, lines and carburetor float bowl.  In fact, it's best to run a little "engineered gas" (just gasoline with NO alcohol in it) through the engine and lines BEFORE draining the system.

I have Hondas at my homes on the West and East coasts - they've never let me down - and they see plenty of use in blackouts.

Yamaha is another good brand.

It pays to be prepared in the days of declining electrical power grids.

Brian - K6BRN
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WB8VLC

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2021, 02:27:57 PM »

Brian just a little while ago I worked on the dead generator and what I found is simply stupid, the generator has an emissions control module to meet a state of cali mandate but I'm in oregon and why the crap does a generator need an emissions module anyway? 

The emissions module appears to have failed but get this, the generator still turns over but it spits out black gray smoke similar to a 1800's steam engine which brings up the point what's the use of this dang module if the generator still turns over but spews so much smoke that it's now polluting more than my 30 year old loaner Champion generator that ran 24/7 for 6 days without any issues does.

I checked the head gasket and it is fine, just that ridiculous emissions module, pure environmentalist stupidity putting my life in danger.

When the generator failed with black gray smoke spitting out I was upstairs with a door open briefly letting some pets in on my upper deck i ran down to shut the generator off leaving the upper door half open and the smoke pored into the house from the upper door and it was so much that our CO2 detectors went off.

 We had to evacuate for 45 minutes to clear the house which did nothing for warming us down, thank you so much to the rampant ignorant environmenal idiots who make Mfg's put crap on a product that will at most get used for less than a week in any year.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 02:33:21 PM by WB8VLC »
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K6BRN

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2021, 02:49:07 PM »

Michael:


Black, grey smoke?  Sounds like it's running super-rich.  If it were blue, I'd say it was an oil issue.

Since you pulled the head, I presume you checked for oily deposits on the plug and all you found was black carbon.

You don't mention the size of the generator, but the Honda EU2200is has enough power to run most refrigerators, furnace oil guns and blowers or an 8.000 BTU A/C unit.  It's also fairly light.

Unfortunately, Honda recently felt the need to add a CO safety shutoff and Bluetooth remote control to their inverter lines (and others, too).  I'm a big fan of KISS.

Brian - K6BRN
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KE8SOK

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Re: Rolling Blackouts in the South
« Reply #42 on: October 04, 2021, 10:56:47 AM »

Time to wake up. Rolling blackouts have ZERO to do with lack of power in the South, just like the West. Its about the AGENDA, and their AGENDA is not good for freedom or your wallet in any way.
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