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Author Topic: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?  (Read 1270 times)

W4JF

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Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« on: December 15, 2022, 07:08:20 AM »

We keep hearing that to sustain ham radio, we need new blood.  Well, seems the new blood these days does not burn as hot for ham radio as it did years ago.  Why is that?  I have my own opinions, but I would certainly like to hear from some of the new licensees concerning your challenges and anxieties of moving forward in ham radio and advancing your skill levels.  What is it that you want or need from us old guys that would help you along?
Thanks,
Joe W4JF
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K1KP

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2022, 07:17:20 AM »

My guess would be it's because they get their ticket, then go buy an HT, and never get on HF. They never get their feet wet in the experience of HF propagation, long distance QSOs, day/night variations, etc.

It's easy to get a Tech license. It's actually harder to put together an HF station and get on the air.

Local clubs and mentors need to step up to provide welcoming assistance to newbies to get them on HF.

-Tony, K1KP
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KG6BRG

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2022, 07:28:12 AM »

My theory as to why, is there are so many other techie things to do now.  Personal computers were a new thing when I got my tech license, in fact my license info was snail mailed to the FCC and it took about 6 weeks to see my tech license.  My general upgrade and code test was emailed along and I had a new license class about 3 days later.  My neighbor got his tech license and made a couple of contacts with me and that was it.  He is massively into radio controlled flying devices.  And of course mobile phones and texting are a reliable way to communicate and I suspect young people don't see why to go to the bother of setting up a radio station and antenna.  Logically, I guess they're correct.  I just like radio, I always have, so it matters little to me in the end.
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KF4HR

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2022, 07:40:24 AM »

This is the first time I've seen that 55% of Tech's drop out.  I'd be interested in knowing where that particular matrix came from.  In any case, I have heard of certain hams getting their license, then losing interest.  Perhaps as easy as it is to obtain an amateur license these days, for some, having an amateur license is not as cherished as it was in decades past.  Easy come, easy go?

Or perhaps with Tech's being able to talk to the world with just a HT using the VoIP modes, it's difficult from them to rationalize why they should spend hundreds or thousands of dollars building a HF station to do the same thing.
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K5LXP

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2022, 07:47:00 AM »

How would you know until 10 years later?  What are the stats for the other classes?

Mark K5LXP
Albuquerque, NM
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WA3SKN

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2022, 07:50:01 AM »

I have never heard or seen the dropout rate you quote.  And all the technicians licensed by our club seem to keep their licenses current... and are also active.

-Mike.
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WA3SKN

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2022, 08:05:22 AM »

12/9/22 388,182
12/1/22 388,703
11/25/22 389020 technicians
11/21/22 388,763
11/18/22 389,065
10/25/22 389,585
10/17/22 389,060
10/14/22 389,856
10/4/22 389,787

Where is the 55% dropout rate?

-Mike.
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VE3WGO

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2022, 08:35:07 AM »

My guess would be it's because they get their ticket, then go buy an HT, and never get on HF. They never get their feet wet in the experience of HF propagation, long distance QSOs, day/night variations, etc.
It's easy to get a Tech license. It's actually harder to put together an HF station and get on the air.
Local clubs and mentors need to step up to provide welcoming assistance to newbies to get them on HF.

-Tony, K1KP

I agree with this.  Imagine a new ham presented with a VHF/UHF HT.  He or she looks at this HT and compares it to their multiband digital multimedia 5G handheld radio (a.k.a. "smartphone") and wonders why bother with the ham HT?  An HT would seem to be like a 1995-era cellphone.  If all they know about ham radio is through the HT, then I think the result is no surprise at all.

73, Ed
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W1ITT

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2022, 08:37:50 AM »

I'm coming up on 56 years continuously licensed in January.  I suspect that if all I had was a Tech license, I'd drop out too.  I listen on 2M FM when I'm in the truck and hear very little and little of that is interesting.  The fellows who signed up thinking that they would save their neighborhood on EmComm are still waiting for the big one to hit.  Our State, County and Local emergency communications were upgraded after the 9-11 terrorist attack and more recently with the ARPA Federal money from heaven drops. We are not needed for much more than charity walk/run events. 
Yes, we can have all sorts of fun with weak signal VHF and UHF, and that's what the Tech license originally envisaged, not a bunch of guys chatting on the repeater,  but it's a bit much for most beginner level amateurs.  Most "Techs" don't start out being very technical at all.  We've been beating the drum for new blood for decades now.  I'm afraid I don't have any original ideas, and I haven't heard any.  On a happier note, I'm just in from cutting down a couple maples for firewood and to make room to move one leg of my 80M wire beam.  It seems that the best we can do to keep Amateur Radio alive is to keep on the air, try new modes,  and doing things to improve our station.
73 de Norm W1ITT
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KA4DPO

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2022, 08:44:33 AM »

My guess would be it's because they get their ticket, then go buy an HT, and never get on HF. They never get their feet wet in the experience of HF propagation, long distance QSOs, day/night variations, etc.

It's easy to get a Tech license. It's actually harder to put together an HF station and get on the air.

Local clubs and mentors need to step up to provide welcoming assistance to newbies to get them on HF.

-Tony, K1KP

I hear that a lot, and it is not true.  Techs have HF privileges in the form of CW, and before anyone starts lamenting CW, please recall that as novices we were locked in to CW, low power, and crystal control on HF.

Think of it as a novice license and help new techs get their feet wet on HF CW.  No one helped me, didn't need it, I was thrilled to be able to contact stations around the world on CW.  I never viewed CW as drudgery, I was like, oh boy, I get to be a ham.  People today don't seem to want to invest anything into their hobby, they just want instant gratification.

Those who truly want to be hams will stay, those who just want instant gratification will leave no matter what we do.  The notion that we should give techs phone on HF just doesn't fly.
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WO7R

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2022, 08:50:30 AM »

In "olden days" there use to be a class of Tech that couldn't cut the 13 WPM test.

What they tended to do was put up a 6m station and settle for that.

These days, 6m is an exciting thing.  It might not be year round, but for some people, with limited time, it might actually be attractive.  You can work a lot of exciting DX every summer on 6 and also stateside if your station is more limited.  Fred Fish could keep someone active for a very long time.

True, the "action" is mostly FT8 on 6m (with a vengeance), but since we're talking about the newly licensed, they won't know or care that some old coots think it is bad.

So, if we're losing a lot of techs (and, I haven't seen the evidence for that) it is probably because, like a lot of other hobbies, they tried it and never found anything to sustain their interest.

Ham numbers are reasonably stable.  I have had trouble detecting one.  About six months ago, someone posted up some numbers suggesting, for the first time, that there might be a decline.  But, if it was more than statistical flux, it's going to take a long time to "do us in".  Any other time these last 30 years, we've had between 600,000 and 700,000 US Hams.

Note:  The nearby FCC License Count thread suggests nothing to panic about.  It's currently around 770,000 total.  "Technician" licenses are falling off, but that's because it's been "Tech Plus" for a lot of years now.  There should be a decline in "Tech" licenses "as such".  So, if that's what someone reacted to, it's an artifact of the data.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2022, 08:53:42 AM by WO7R »
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K4FMH

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2022, 09:12:42 AM »

Hi Joe,

Interesting post. A few Qs that a couple of others have posted as well as some additional info.

a. Please supply the source of the 55% quit or drop out.
There are some issues with using aggregate license counts to reach this conclusion. One cannot just compare total numbers at two points in time to determine that individual Techs let their license expire (the official measure of "quitting"). The total numbers are composed of "birth" (licensure) and "death" (license cancellation or expiration). In addition, a segment of those Techs at T1 move up to General or Extra so counting them as "quitting" is not accurate. A third issue is activity: we have no generalizable measures or data on activity nor do we have an accepted conceptualization of what "activity" in ham radio is, in terms of behavior.

At some point when time permits, I plan to use my database of end-of-year FCC licenses from 2000 to present to match individuals (not call signs) to create annual metrics for when each cohort of licensees leave the ULS database. That would be a start.

b. While my post was mainly about ARRL's declining share of the market that the database of amateur licenses represents, I wrote about some of this discussion on growth and decline in the various license classes over the past few decades in a Social Circuits article:

"In 1997, there were 73,737 Extra Class licensees as compared to 314,532 Technicians. Technicians were by far larger than the top license class. By 2021, the respective license numbers had climbed to 154,347 Extras, an effective doubling of 109 percent over the two decades or so. Technicians, by comparison, had reached 396,232 in number or just a gain of 26 percent. Hmm. Well, a share of those Extras began as Technicians which makes the crude comparison of static numbers like this complicated with regard to the full interpretation of such change. We need to assess the “ham career” of individual licensees making the sequential transition (or not) from Technician to General to Extra but that’s for another column. Suffice it to say, the rise in no-code Techs is part of the change. But Extras were a strong element, too."
https://foxmikehotel.com/2022/03/31/arrl-market-share-elvis-has-left-the-building/

Please do reply with your source on the 55% figure, ok?

73,

Frank
K4FMH
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W1RKW

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2022, 09:48:56 AM »

Techs have HF phone and cw privileges on 10m
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WB8VLC

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2022, 09:51:02 AM »

We keep hearing that to sustain ham radio, we need new blood.  Well, seems the new blood these days does not burn as hot for ham radio as it did years ago.  Why is that?  I have my own opinions, but I would certainly like to hear from some of the new licensees concerning your challenges and anxieties of moving forward in ham radio and advancing your skill levels.  What is it that you want or need from us old guys that would help you along?
Thanks,
Joe W4JF

My guess would be because they end up on 10 meter SSB, in particular on 28.425 MHz listening to a certain Lunatic ham in Ga. calling CQ CQ CQ CQ..... endlessly for 24/7.
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W1VT

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Re: Why do more than 55% of new Techs drop-out or quit?
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2022, 10:14:19 AM »

Yes, 10M privileges.   Nothing on the market like the Radio Shack 10M HTX-100 radios of old for new Techs to buy.
Cycle 24 wasn't very good for 10M propagation.  Sure, I worked over 250 countries on 10M, but I have more DXing experience than the average ham.

From my Connecticut perspective 6M DXing is harder than 160 meters.  Pileups to Europe are brutal. 
There are areas where the 200 mile range of a good SSB station on 6 would be great, but a lot of areas where that doesn't reach enough hams in a big country like the USA.

Zak W1VT
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