Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion  (Read 309 times)

AC9O

  • Posts: 14
    • HomeURL

Hi all, I need only WV on CW to complete my WAS Triple Play. Hope it's ok to post this here. Hoping to find someone that can do a Sked and uses LoTW to get me over the finish line. I would guess 40, 30 or possibly 20 would be best, depending on time of day. I am very time flexible. QRZ email is good.

Thanks and 73
Paul, AC9O
Logged

W8BS

  • Member
  • Posts: 14
    • homeURL
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2022, 10:47:54 AM »

Every night at 7:00 pm on 3.567 is the WV CW Net.  There's usually 7 to 9 guys that check in.  You could check in and I'm sure someone will quo with you.

Jim W8BS
Logged

KH6AQ

  • Member
  • Posts: 9292
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2022, 01:14:19 PM »

ARRL Triple Play WAS rules:   https://www.arrl.org/triple-play
Logged

WO7R

  • Member
  • Posts: 6041
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2022, 07:11:06 PM »

Probably the most significant rule for this (as AC9O doubtless knows) is this:

Quote
The Triple Play WAS (Worked All States) Award is available to all amateurs worldwide who must use Logbook of the World (LoTW) to confirm QSOs with each of the 50 states on voice, CW, and digital modes.

However, my estimate is that the raw LOTW match rate these days is about 75 per cent.  That is, 3 of 4 stations you call are LOTW participants.  That's way up from the past, so if one calculates one's own rate based on one's own all time log or some public source from the beginning of time, one usually ends up with a lower fraction than is actually achieved in 2022.  But it is only the "today" fraction that matters.

So, if you find that net and contact, say, two of them, your odds are about 93 per cent that one of them will confirm.  So, if you find the 'net, work two or three of them and you should be "good".
Logged

AF5CC

  • Posts: 1664
    • HomeURL
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2022, 10:17:48 PM »

Look for N8II or K8JQ in some upcoming contests.  They both do quite a bit of CW contesting and use LOTW.  The NAQP CW is coming up next month.  One or both will probably be on for that.

73 John AF5CC
Logged

M0LEP

  • Member
  • Posts: 554
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2022, 04:34:59 AM »

That is, 3 of 4 stations you call are LOTW participants.
Hmmm...

Of my USA contacts in 2022, about 50% have confirmed on LotW. Of my USA contacts since I started using LotW in 2010 about 53% have confirmed, so Ive not seen much of a change in USA participation in LotW over the years. This year is slightly below average, but then it's not over yet, and not everyone uploads to LotW immediately.

Counting all my contacts, my LotW confirmation rate's 18% for 2022, and 28% since I started using it in 2010. I think the difference there is that this year I've been operating almost entirely from home, with just a couple of brief /P activations in other DXCCs, and more than the average number of local chats, wheras the "since I started" tally includes a number of times I've operated from 5Z (Kenya). The LotW confirmation rate for my 5Z operations is 51%, and my overall QSL rate for 5Z is 73%, with most of the difference made up of paper QSLs.
Logged

WO7R

  • Member
  • Posts: 6041
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2022, 11:43:54 AM »

Quote
Of my USA contacts in 2022, about 50% have confirmed on LotW. Of my USA contacts since I started using LotW in 2010 about 53% have confirmed, so Ive not seen much of a change in USA participation in LotW over the years. This year is slightly below average, but then it's not over yet, and not everyone uploads to LotW immediately.

Your 2022 numbers will approach their final percentage by 1 April 2023.  There's a very long tail, and so will grow "forever", but almost everyone who will ever upload will do so by then.  That's what my numbers show and I've done things like post-process the LOTW reports, so I have a good idea about the populations that upload quickly. . . and slowly.

Your numbers do seem a little low.  I always knew European participation in LOTW was lower than stateside, but I really didn't think it would be that much.  That's a surprise, I must admit.

In any case, even your numbers are better than the global-from-the-start-of-time numbers on the LOTW site.  That shows only a 21 per cent match rate, which is lower than I have generally achieved any old year.  Too pessimistic.

Moreover, in my case (and as far as I can tell, most cases), my LOTW confirmation percentages have crept up year by year (I do track confirmation dates I get from LOTW).  A little SQL gives me:

ConfirmedTotalFract. CfmYear
236238460.6142013
239533940.7062014
174425320.6892015
166625090.6642016
175327810.6302017
281535700.7892018
308041620.7402019
297740130.7422020
240430500.7882021
78911210.7042022

Of course, 2022 is not done and should go up to at least .75 by the first quarter of next year.

I haven't tested for statistical significance, but the trendline shows an average improvement of about 1.5 per cent a year.

This is consistent with other times I have looked at the data.  AC9O's results are likely to look more like mine than yours I think.

Meanwhile, even assuming a mere 50 per cent match rate, a handful of stations still makes one an odds-on favorite to get that confirmation.  The probability of a match seems to be statistically independent (borne out by practice, not just assumption).

Given that, then elementary probability suggests the odds of finishing Triple Play are:

50 per cent for one station worked.
87.5 per cent for two stations worked.
95.7 per cent for three stations worked

The math is basic -- you can extrapolate from there.  I did have one unlucky station in some prior thread suggest they had worked twelve (!) qualifying calls without a match, so there are problems possible here.  But that is very much an outlier and it wasn't clear that the correspondent had waited long enough to see if any of those twelve might still have uploads coming.
Logged

M0LEP

  • Member
  • Posts: 554
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2022, 12:06:31 PM »

I don't generally record when LotW confirmations come through, but I've noticed that sometimes they come through more than once, and I recently received a new one for a contact in 2014...

I did enter one big international contest this year, and over 70% of those contacts confirmed via LotW. I also played, briefly, with FT8 and FT4. Over 70% of those contacts have been confirmed through LotW. However, most of my contacts from home are either club Nets (very few of which result in LotW confirmations) or SOTA chases. Most of the SOTA chases are of activations within Europe. Fewer than 25% of those SOTA contacts have been confirmed via LotW. I figure DX chasers and DX contesters are much more likely to use LotW than other folk. I guess it's the nature of the game...
« Last Edit: December 24, 2022, 12:10:23 PM by M0LEP »
Logged

WO7R

  • Member
  • Posts: 6041
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2022, 09:50:12 PM »

Quote
Fewer than 25% of those SOTA contacts have been confirmed via LotW. I figure DX chasers and DX contesters are much more likely to use LotW than other folk. I guess it's the nature of the game...

Indeed.  Now that you provided this detail, your results make more sense to me.

I do tend to contact mostly contesters, DXpeditions, and whatever interseting stuff I find on FT8.

Back in the dark ages, contesters (especially for stateside contests) used to be the worst QSLers.  Getting some of those cards was like pulling teeth.

They probably still would rather not deal with cards.  But, most apparently have discovered that LOTW cuts down on even the number of requests they get -- and they can always tell folks it's LOTW or nothing, too,  I suppose.  Whatever the exact reasoning is, I can now count on the majority of contest QSOs to match me on LOTW.  It's great.   I recommend LOTW for that reason alone.
Logged

K3TN

  • Member
  • Posts: 1014
    • My Blog
Re: Looking for a CW Sked with someone in WV for Triple Play completion
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2023, 04:29:03 AM »

Contesters were definitely early adopters of LotW - mainly because they were also early adopters of computer logging of contest QSOs. I remembering demo-ing an early version of K1EA's CT program in 1986 or so at a Potomac Valley Radio Club meeting.

Long before LotW, the contest logging software started to support printing QSL labels with multiple QSOs per card, and maintaining a database of band/QSOs that had already been confirmed. It was faster for big contest stations to just send out cards for new band/QSOs and say "No QSL required" than it was to manually respond to buro cards - everyone was happy!

Today, I'd say 1/2 my buro cards are those type of cards because of so many new contest call signs being used.

These days my lowest response rate seems to be on 6M - I'm not a big VHFer, but seemed much  slower to get LotW grid confirms on 6.

73 John K3TN
Logged
John K3TN
Pages: [1]   Go Up