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Author Topic: The Next Big Show In Town?  (Read 1232 times)

VK3HJ

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The Next Big Show In Town?
« on: February 16, 2023, 05:59:17 PM »

Now that the excitement is starting to settle down over (#2) Bouvet, and (#3) Crozet (still on air for a bit), one might ask "When is the next big one?"
A quick check of the ClubLog Most Wanted rankings against NG3Ks excellent "Announced DX Operations" show that there is nothing announced yet for anything in the Top 20, let alone Top 10 Most Wanted. There is one right down the bottom of Top 30, being #29 Minami Torishima that I saw mentioned somewhere else that will be active again later this year. And wasn't there something planned for (#28) Swains Island that was postponed from last year? There was also a hint at a possible (#9) Peter 1 Island activation at the end of this year.
For any highly-ranked entity to be activated of course requires a lot of planning, and a year or two to raise funding. I know that in the past there has been some conflict with early announcements, but I can't believe that, with the solar peak coming up in the next few years, the news is very, very quiet. Perhaps it would be inappropriate to gossip about rumours about so and so thinking about activating such and such, but don't you think it is a bit strange that it is so quiet?
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KJ4Z

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2023, 06:03:25 PM »

Here are my ATNOs for the last 5 years:

3Y/B   BOUVET ISLAND   2   2023-02-07
FT5/W   CROZET ISLAND   3   2022-12-25
T33   BANABA ISLAND   59   2022-11-05
3D2/C   CONWAY REEF   53   2019-06-01
VP6/D   DUCIE ISLAND   56   2018-10-20
KH1   BAKER HOWLAND ISLANDS   31   2018-06-28

Have we had any top-10 activations between KH1 and FT5/W?  That's a gap of 4 years and I would say yes, that is very quiet.

Here's what I still need.  It is bleak.

P5   DPRK (NORTH KOREA)   1
BS7H   SCARBOROUGH REEF   4
CE0X   SAN FELIX ISLANDS   5
BV9P   PRATAS ISLAND   6
KH7K   KURE ISLAND   7
3Y/P   PETER 1 ISLAND   9
FT/G   GLORIOSO ISLAND   10
FT5/X   KERGUELEN ISLAND   11
YV0   AVES ISLAND   12
KP5   DESECHEO ISLAND   18
EZ   TURKMENISTAN   23
YK   SYRIA   25
ZL8   KERMADEC ISLAND   27
HK0/M   MALPELO ISLAND   41
FT5Z   AMSTERDAM & ST PAUL ISLANDS   44

Edit: I have heard vague rumors of something in the Pacific.  I hope maybe KH7K but I'm afraid KH3 or KH4 might be more likely.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2023, 06:24:13 PM by KJ4Z »
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W2IRT

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2023, 07:16:07 PM »

Edit: I have heard vague rumors of something in the Pacific.  I hope maybe KH7K but I'm afraid KH3 or KH4 might be more likely.
No chance they'll get permission for KH3. I wish! Ditto Kure.
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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll

Great times are at hand, and soon there will be DX for all—although more for some than for others.

K1VSK

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2023, 07:18:36 PM »

Here are my ATNOs for the last 5 years:

3Y/B   BOUVET ISLAND   2   2023-02-07
FT5/W   CROZET ISLAND   3   2022-12-25
T33   BANABA ISLAND   59   2022-11-05
3D2/C   CONWAY REEF   53   2019-06-01
VP6/D   DUCIE ISLAND   56   2018-10-20
KH1   BAKER HOWLAND ISLANDS   31   2018-06-28

Have we had any top-10 activations between KH1 and FT5/W?  That's a gap of 4 years and I would say yes, that is very quiet.

Here's what I still need.  It is bleak.

P5   DPRK (NORTH KOREA)   1
BS7H   SCARBOROUGH REEF   4
CE0X   SAN FELIX ISLANDS   5
BV9P   PRATAS ISLAND   6
KH7K   KURE ISLAND   7
3Y/P   PETER 1 ISLAND   9
FT/G   GLORIOSO ISLAND   10
FT5/X   KERGUELEN ISLAND   11
YV0   AVES ISLAND   12
KP5   DESECHEO ISLAND   18
EZ   TURKMENISTAN   23
YK   SYRIA   25
ZL8   KERMADEC ISLAND   27
HK0/M   MALPELO ISLAND   41
FT5Z   AMSTERDAM & ST PAUL ISLANDS   44

Edit: I have heard vague rumors of something in the Pacific.  I hope maybe KH7K but I'm afraid KH3 or KH4 might be more likely.
I found it interesting that many years ago when I was still working ATNOs that 9 of those 15 you listed where among the last ones I needed.

Moral of that story - hang in there and don’t let the DX doom and gloom folks here  dissuade you or make you think it’s “too hard”.
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KJ4Z

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2023, 07:44:25 PM »

A while ago we go a two-fer with the VP8s, South Georgia and South Sandwich.

Is it too much to dream of a KH7K/KH4 double header?  They're just a few miles apart...   ::)
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VK3HJ

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2023, 08:38:55 PM »

After a nice little kick-along with Crozet, Bouvet and Libya in my pot, here's my Wanted list:

Prefix   Entity   Most-wanted Rank
BS7H   SCARBOROUGH REEF   4
CE0X   SAN FELIX ISLANDS   5
BV9P   PRATAS ISLAND   6
KH7K   KURE ISLAND   7
KH3   JOHNSTON ISLAND   8
3Y/P   PETER 1 ISLAND   9
FT5/X   KERGUELEN ISLAND   11
YV0   AVES ISLAND   12
EZ   TURKMENISTAN   23
YK   SYRIA   25

Of those, only Peter 1 has been even *mentioned* as under consideration. Any of the above Wanted Entities will put me on Honour Roll. As I discussed before, I missed a few like Syria, Scarborough and Peter 1 when I first got back on air and started to think about DXCC!
Anyway, I'm steadily ticking off the DXCC Challenge confirmations, with a score of 2369, including 21 new points in Lotw already this year, plus a few more with cards, so the magic is still trickling into my pot.
I would think that one of the Top Ten, or two of the Top 20 each year might be a reasonable expectation, as we head towards this Cycle peak.
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W2IRT

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2023, 09:43:48 PM »

I would think that one of the Top Ten, or two of the Top 20 each year might be a reasonable expectation, as we head towards this Cycle peak.
Before about 2017 or so that actually did happen, but the world has changed a lot since then. Aves used to be on every couple of years until things went to hell in Venezuela. Syria was the same. Not common but not super-rare either. I don't think Peter 1 has been off the air long enough to warrant a million dollar attempt. Johnston will never come back on due to the contamination and the rabid environmentalists. Kure is likely closed for the foreseeable future, but it'll be on before Johnston I'd imagine. I'd heard Kerguelen's closed for environmental concerns but I'm not 100% sure. Turkmenistan will be QRT until the dictator in charge is no longer in charge. I'd sell body parts for San Felix and Pratas but I doubt either will happen anytime soon due to military installations on both and the tensions between China and Taiwan further putting Pratas out of reach. China and Scarborough, same scenario.

Of course we all said Yemen would never see a big activation, and then one day that wasn't the case. And Zorro briefly activated Myanmar and Eritrea, so anything's possible. But Zorro's an SK now, sadly.
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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll

Great times are at hand, and soon there will be DX for all—although more for some than for others.

WO7R

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2023, 10:10:18 PM »

Quote
I don't think Peter 1 has been off the air long enough to warrant a million dollar attempt.

Do you have better information I missed?  The last Peter I of any size was last activated on February 2006 and required a helicopter.  I think that's long enough ago to rate a major attempt -- with an understanding some of these might fail.

But I would be happy to hear of something more recent and helicopter free.

Quote
Johnston will never come back on due to the contamination and the rabid environmentalists.

I don't get how the "rabid environmentalists" figure into this one.  I just read about it lately because of these threads.  The place is polluted with plutonium.

The short answer is:  You don't want to be exposed to this stuff.  At all.  There is a lot of uncertainty of what it can do to you.  Some of the older information I read was perhaps excessively scary, but this source:

https://sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/lanl/pubs/00818013.pdf

. . .is scary enough.

It suggests a killing dose that is fairly low.  It also suggests that an unknown but possibly much lower dose will give you things like lung cancer. The trick is, even small exposure might concentrate in the more vital areas and give you cancer.  And, it is almost impossible to get out of the body once absorbed.  Just nasty stuff.

This text compares it to radium, something we once naively allowed all over the place, but got rid of because of its toxicity.  You don't want to be around much radium, either.

Now, if you are worried about immediate death, the doses are somewhat higher.  But me, I don't need nasty cancer from this kind of crap.  Neither does anyone else.

If the environmental pooh bahs don't want us going, I would be included to take their advice.

And, that's before we consider that Agent Orange contaminates the place as well.

It's basically been the military's toxic waste dump for decades.
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VK3HJ

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2023, 10:12:13 PM »

Johnston will never come back on due to the contamination and the rabid environmentalists.
I think that your first reason would be grounds enough for not wanting to send anyone there! Larry elaborates.
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WO7R

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2023, 10:19:45 PM »

Quote
Of course we all said Yemen would never see a big activation, and then one day that wasn't the case.

A lot of places in the world have leaders that distrust ham radio.  We mostly have to wait for these sorts to die and see if the new one changes things.

In North Korea, I would suggest that Daddy was more friendly than the current one, his son.  There's speculation that the current leader's sister or daughter is being groomed take over.  Who knows what they think about hamming.

EZ could drop its ham radio prohibition tomorrow.  Or, thirty years from now.  We have no clue and less leverage.  If there is a replacement for the indispensable Zorro, I don't know who it is.

The other problem is that there is kind of a rotating cast of characters to this.  It might take 40 years at the key to live long enough to thread the needle against all the prohibitions as new ones replace old ones and old ones drop off on a long and irregular schedule.  If they do at all.  Just because they have doesn't mean they will.  It's just too easy to forget we give these pooh bahs such power over us.

The devil of it is, if EZ stays off the air for 40 of 50 years, we won't know until after the fact.  It's hard to make policy prospectively unless you decide that X years puts them in some "suspended" category or other and have something intermediate to HR and #1 HR to cover them.

Meanwhile, a lot of DXers have died waiting for EZ to come back.
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W2IRT

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2023, 12:29:18 AM »

Quote
I don't think Peter 1 has been off the air long enough to warrant a million dollar attempt.
Do you have better information I missed?  The last Peter I of any size was last activated on February 2006 and required a helicopter.  I think that's long enough
17 years is a long time, but for a $1M (or likely more) operation I really think it should be longer, to generate more interest. 3Y0X did over 86,000 QSOs, and 3Y0PI did another 62,500 in 1994. I was around for 3Y0X and I recall they had a hell of a time even with a helicopter (mainly due to fog), and they had to cut their operating time short. Given the ordeal that this Bouvet team went through, and not to mention the last attempt, I think the DX community might balk at the idea of another operation of this nature soon. If Dom or a lone wolf can do it that's great, of course, but for a big operation? Let's just say I'd much rather see a miracle happen to successfully activate something equally as rare.

Maybe it's time to consider Clipperton again? It's been 10 years since it was last activated, and 14 since the last big Glorioso operation. I wonder if the French authorities might be persuaded to allow that one to pop up again?
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Night gathers and now my watch begins. It shall not end until I reach Top of the Honor Roll

Great times are at hand, and soon there will be DX for all—although more for some than for others.

N4UFO

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2023, 01:31:43 AM »

And wasn't there something planned for (#28) Swains Island that was postponed from last year?
Still trying, but they can't arrange for a ship to/from: https://swains2020.lldxt.eu/category/geen-categorie/
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EI2GLB

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2023, 01:51:11 AM »

I was only reading an article on DX-World yesterday by a French station saying that the authorities are not going to allow any radio from the rare French Islands for the foreseeable future,

But as Thierry got permission to go to Crozet maybe they are more flexible,

https://www.dx-world.net/project-for-an-expedition-to-crozet-and-glorioso-islands/

I remember missing Glorioso and at the time I was only getting into DX and I remember just not being able to hear them, I can't remember what I had as an antenna back then as I was mainly 6&2M it was probably a doublet of some sort,

When I look back if I got the DX bug earlier from when I was Licensed in 2004 I could have them all nearly worked by now  :-[

Trevor
EI2GLB

 

and 14 since the last big Glorioso operation. I wonder if the French authorities might be persuaded to allow that one to pop up again?
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VK3HJ

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2023, 02:55:28 AM »

Thanks for the info on Swains. The last group there was NH8S in September 2012. I had a clean sweep with that one, 160 - 10 m, CW, Phone, RTTY. Same with Clipperton TX5K March 2013. Glorioso would be most welcome, but not new for me. I worked FT5GA in September 2009 on just a couple of bands.
And Trevor, yes, if I'd started one or two years earlier... If I'd been more stable and focused on DX from when I was licenced in 1981, I'd be on 350 or 360 entities, with lots of Deleted ones! But I didn't. I've done well though and I hope I can have fun with this good station for a good cycle or two more.
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K7KB

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Re: The Next Big Show In Town?
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2023, 03:47:07 AM »

Here are the five I need for Nr. 1 HR:

P5 North Korea
BS7H Scarborough Reef
BV7P Pratas Island
3Y/P Peter I Island
EZ Turkmenistan
FT/G Glorioso Island

The only one out of those that I hold little or no hope of being activated again is BS7H, Scaffold Reef. How that ever got approved as a valid entity is beyond me, but my thought is that it needs to be deleted. For one thing, the Chinese will never allow another operation from there because they claim most of the territorial waters in that area. And eventually global warming will make it so that the rocks will be completely submerged anyway. The other one I hold little hope for, and many of the same reasons, is Pratas Island. Too much of a political and military hotbed for it to become active.

As for the other four, well we will just have to wait and see. Perhaps we can convince Dom to activate Peter I instead now that Bouvet has been activated. 
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