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Author Topic: Solar Cycle 25  (Read 679 times)

K4HB

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Solar Cycle 25
« on: March 13, 2023, 07:18:27 PM »

Cycle 25 has been looking good thus far, and if things keep progressing at this rate, we may see another Cycle 23 or better. I've had a good feeling about this cycle since 2020, even with this prediction...



What's that they're saying now? Exceeding expectations?
Well, exceeding expectations = OOPS, we must have gotten that one wrong.

I have respect for Dr. Hathaway, solar physicist for NASA. His knowledge of the sun has helped solve crimes. But I just don't believe anyone on earth can predict what the sun will do years from now, like meteorologists can predict what the weather will do a week from now. (And they can be wrong about that too)

Dug into the archives and found some of my posts about Cycle 25 from 2020...

DXing / Re: Sun Spots!
« on: November 26, 2020, 02:24:57 PM »
Made a comparison between SC24 and SC25. Those of us who were active between 2007-2009 may remember wondering if SC24 would ever kick off. That finally happened around Jul 2009. I guess these cycles are considered underway when the sunspots show the correct polarity. I'm basing the progress here by kickoff, or when the SN started upward and didn't bounce back to the bottom.

Noticed today's SN is 40. If my memory is correct, we had that number 2 weeks ago. It took about 17 months for SC24 to reach 40 from kickoff. SC25 was predicted to reach SN 40 a little quicker, but this happened in a little over 10 months. We're off to a fast start, but of course that doesn't necessarily mean a good finish. Hope we see a fast upclimb like we did in 2011. Would love to see 150 again.



DXing / Re: Sun Spots!
« on: November 30, 2020, 05:55:10 AM »
It keeps getting better and better. SC 24 took about 2 years from takeoff to reach 80 SN. SC25 did it in 11 months! Of course we don't know how this will end up when SC25 peaks, but if it keeps up this pace, HOLY MOLY!



I may have exaggerated just a little bit here...

Cycle 25 to be a whopper !
« on: February 25, 2021, 09:26:13 AM »
Here's the whopper. Remember, you saw it first here...
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NU1O

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2023, 07:40:52 AM »

Your click-bait worked.  I read the article about solving crimes. 

Nice prediction.  I'm a contrarian so I was betting against the consensus.  One doesn't make a ton of dough riding with the herd.
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KD8MJR

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2023, 04:43:30 PM »

I kind of disagree with you about not being able to predict the cycle.
Predicting how a cycle will turn out before it starts is of course impossible with current technology, but once a cycle has started and it is trending upwards faster than normal  I think that suggest that a lot of potential energy is in the tanks waiting to be used. 
 IMHO it's kind of like Volcanic eruptions.  You have no idea when they will happen until there are earthquakes.   The size of those earthquakes is usually a good indicator that not only is an eruption coming but of roughly how big it will be.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2023, 04:48:32 PM by KD8MJR »
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K3TN

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2023, 05:09:11 AM »

This quote has been attributed to many, but I choose to believe that it came from modern philosopher and childhood favorite of mine, Yogi Berra:

Quote
It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

I've reviewed an article by Frank Donovan W3LPL that will be in May QST (online QST on  7 April) with good hints on what to expect on the bands if Cycle 25 does live up to new predictions - ARRL tweet here.
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AF5CC

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2023, 07:32:05 AM »

We have had F2 propagation into South America on 6 meters almost every day this week!  It is great to have that again. Don't recall getting any F2 on 6 during Cycle 24-this cycle is certainly off to a better start!

73 John AF5CC
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KD8MJR

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2023, 10:32:19 AM »

We have had F2 propagation into South America on 6 meters almost every day this week!  It is great to have that again. Don't recall getting any F2 on 6 during Cycle 24-this cycle is certainly off to a better start!

73 John AF5CC

Yes 6m has been very good of late.  I got ZD7 on 6m about a week ago.
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EI2GLB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2023, 10:43:03 AM »

With the SFI under 150, it's probably TEP with some E enhancement,

As most paths seem N-S
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K4HB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2023, 01:00:23 PM »

With the SFI under 150, it's probably TEP with some E enhancement,

As most paths seem N-S

I was thinking the same. When PSK Reporter shows my signals reaching the southern tip of South America, no where else in SA, and only close stations in NA, I've been attributing that to TEP. This happened recently, then I worked a station in KY, and my signals were heard in AZ and MI. I figured that F2 was also in the mix. So is that happening? If not, please enlighten me to what is going on.

We had some of what I believe to be TEP  earlier today. Now I'm seeing stations from VE7, Caribbean, & Europe coming in? F2 maybe? Whatever it is, I like it. And it sounds like a good recipe for Alaska on 6M before long. Hey, PY just came in here +10. Think I'll stick around on the radio for a while.
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K4HB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2023, 01:51:23 PM »

I kind of disagree with you about not being able to predict the cycle.
Predicting how a cycle will turn out before it starts is of course impossible with current technology, but once a cycle has started and it is trending upwards faster than normal  I think that suggest that a lot of potential energy is in the tanks waiting to be used.

When I said, "But I just don't believe anyone on earth can predict what the sun will do years from now, like meteorologists can predict what the weather will do a week from now" maybe I was vague in the way I said it. What I meant is I don't believe solar scientists at NASA, nor any place else can predict solar weather years from now with the same degree of accuracy meteorologists can predict the weather here. (And that turns out wrong sometimes too)

As I recall, Dr. Hathaway and other scientists first predicted Cycle 24 would be a humdinger. As it started upward, they changed their minds and made predictions that pretty well came to be. This is the NOAA/NASA Prediction for Cycle 25 made in Dec 2019. I made my comments about a year later, based on how the cycle was progressing.

 
 IMHO it's kind of like Volcanic eruptions.  You have no idea when they will happen until there are earthquakes.   The size of those earthquakes is usually a good indicator that not only is an eruption coming but of roughly how big it will be.

A football team can be leading 20 to nothing at halftime, and that's a good indication who will win the game. But not necessarily. You never know until it's over, and hindsight is 20-20. I just hope Cycle 25 keeps "exceeding expectations," but not to the point our power grids are knocked out or we have problems with satellites we are now dependent on.
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KD8MJR

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2023, 02:48:16 PM »

 
 IMHO it's kind of like Volcanic eruptions.  You have no idea when they will happen until there are earthquakes.   The size of those earthquakes is usually a good indicator that not only is an eruption coming but of roughly how big it will be.
A football team can be leading 20 to nothing at halftime, and that's a good indication who will win the game. But not necessarily. You never know until it's over, and hindsight is 20-20. I just hope Cycle 25 keeps "exceeding expectations," but not to the point our power grids are knocked out or we have problems with satellites we are now dependent on.

I think that is a bad analogy.   Nature and Space driven events are created and driven by energy.  Sports are driven by Skill, Motivation and luck.
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AF5CC

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2023, 04:23:59 PM »

With the SFI under 150, it's probably TEP with some E enhancement,

As most paths seem N-S

Probably not when I am working Ecuador and Colombia a lot, as they are both on the same side of the equator as I am.  We are getting Ecuador about every day in here.  I think I have worked the 3 main grids in that country.

73 John AF5CC
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K4HB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2023, 11:48:14 AM »

Me thinks these openings into the southern portion of SA were TEP, and maybe those into the northern part were F2. Isn't it a bit early for Es? While Ecuador is mostly south of the equator, don't believe it's far enough south for TEP. When HC came in here +43, wasn't that a blast of F2?


Of 39 contacts with CE, CX, LU, OA, & PY, on 6M starting Feb 16, 32 were between the times listed below in the characteristics of afternoon TEP. The others were in the the characteristics of evening TEP. But whatever is going on, I hope it keeps it up and F2 brings Alaska to the Southeast. Hello Alaska!

The following is from https://www.amateur-radio-wiki.net/trans-equatorial-propagation/...

What are the characteristics of afternoon TEP?
  • Maximum usable frequency (MUF) up to about 60 MHz
  • It occurs from around 1500 to 1900 local time.
  • It is more prevalent near the equinoxes and at times of high sunspot numbers.
  • Typical path lengths will be from 5000 to 6500 kilometers.
  • Signals will normally be strong with limited fading and distortion
What are the characteristics of evening TEP?
  • Occurs around 2000 to 2300 local time, and is more frequent around the equinoxes and  especially at times of high sunspot activity
  • Signals may have doppler spread
  • Signals subject to rapid fading and strong distortion
  • Path lengths are usually between 3000 and 8000 kilometers
Is it possible to predict TEP conditions?

At the moment it is not possible to predict TEP conditions, but the following are indicative that those conditions may be possible.
  • The receiver and transmitter should be located at equal distances from the magnetic equator
  • The time is around the equinoxes
  • The path must be within about 15 degrees of geomagnetic north-south
  • The Solar cycle is at a maximum – leading to higher ionospheric ionization
  • The higher the F2 layer is over the geomagnetic equator the higher the occurrence rate of TEP
  • The further the equatorial anomalies are from the geomagnetic equator the higher the probability that afternoon TEP will occur
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AE5X

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2023, 01:01:59 PM »

We had some of what I believe to be TEP  earlier today. Now I'm seeing stations from VE7, Caribbean, & Europe coming in? F2 maybe? Whatever it is, I like it. And it sounds like a good recipe for Alaska on 6M before long. Hey, PY just came in here +10. Think I'll stick around on the radio for a while.

CE3SAD (Chile) copies commercial FM stations from Miami FL 3 weeks ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET8JI4MhANg&t=2s
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KD8MJR

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2023, 02:28:45 PM »

South Americans where working EU stations this morning at around 16:00Z
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K4HB

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Re: Solar Cycle 25
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2023, 02:47:52 PM »

That's CE3SX in Santiago, and he's 4,120 miles from Miami. Didn't know that was even possible. WMIA is pumping 100,000 watts, but stiill didn't know 93.9 MHz FM could be heard in via TEP in Central Chile. Cuba can probably hear them fairly well.
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