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Author Topic: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?  (Read 722 times)

K0IZ

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Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« on: March 20, 2023, 07:42:05 AM »

I didn't work it back in 2007.  So hoping climate change hurries up so it can be deleted from DXCC list ...
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K1VSK

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2023, 08:32:44 AM »

I didn't work it back in 2007.  So hoping climate change hurries up so it can be deleted from DXCC list ...
It still shows up on current navigation charts of that area as 11 feet above MHW.
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K4HB

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2023, 08:46:45 AM »

Most likely not. Considering how many want it to be underwater, someone would have sounded off by now if it was. And it must be above water at high tide to remain on the list. There may be a better chance of China and the Philippines kissing and making up before that happens.

<edit> With very limited knowledge of nautical navigation, had to look up MHW at the NOAA site... The average of all the high water heights observed over the National Tidal Datum Epoch. For stations with shorter series, comparison of simultaneous observations with a control tide station is made in order to derive the equivalent datum of the National Tidal Datum Epoch.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2023, 09:00:44 AM by K4HB »
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WA9AFM

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2023, 10:12:50 AM »

Our club uses the photo of the Scarborough Reef 2007 Dxpedition, with operator wearing a life vest on his platform with gear, antenna, and generator, as part of our Tech class.  We use it as an example of how dxpeditions are one of the 'fun parts of amateur radio'.
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W1BR

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2023, 10:33:56 AM »

Must be underwater; last active in 2006...

The traditional "Scarborough Fair" no longer exists, but a number of low-key celebrations take place every September to mark the original event. Scarborough Fair in July 2006, witnessed medieval jousting competitions hosted by English Heritage in addition to the usual attractions.
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KD6KVL

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2023, 10:35:35 AM »

I remember my little station, IC-706 and little Butternut vertical on the roof.  Near the end of the expedition I still had not heard them.  I took a vacation day off work and sat around the radio all day, barely eating, holding it when I had to go and they finally lifted out of the noise around 6pm PST and I worked them in a few calls.  Then he faded back out and that was it.  Glad I got them....It really lit a fire under me to make improvements.  I skipped a few years here and there, missed a lot of the early 2000's expeditions to some rare ones I still don't have, but I just keep adding a tweeking things where and how I can and it gets better every year.
Frank KG6N
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Frank KG6N

W2IRT

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2023, 10:53:33 AM »

They were not audible along the east coast at all for the first three days -- well, maybe to they guys with stacks and 150' towers, etc, but not to most. On the fourth day they were somewhat loud on 20 phone around 10am my time, with a massive pileup as you'd expect. Surprisingly it took me only about 45 minutes of (desperate) calling. No online logs, no DXA, etc, so I duped an hour later. The next day it was the same scenario on 20 CW. A couple of my friends came over and worked them as well. That first 20m BS7H phone QSO was easily the most memorable of my 43 years in amateur radio.
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KD6KVL

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2023, 10:56:37 AM »

I've got a great first DX story that came full circle 30 years later.  I'll post after work with pictures.
Frank KG6N
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Frank KG6N

WO7R

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2023, 05:11:35 PM »

FWIW, I once talked to a guy who had been on one of these expeditions.

When most people try and determine the fatal spot that is (or is not) above the water, they usually are looking in the wrong place according to him.  I'm not sure where the "right" place is, but apparently it is not reliably known to those that haven't been there.
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KD8MJR

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2023, 01:17:47 AM »

I wonder if Marty could go back in time with what he knows today, would he still do that Dxpedition.
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K1VSK

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2023, 09:08:32 AM »

FWIW, I once talked to a guy who had been on one of these expeditions.

When most people try and determine the fatal spot that is (or is not) above the water, they usually are looking in the wrong place according to him.  I'm not sure where the "right" place is, but apparently it is not reliably known to those that haven't been there.
Cartographers who compose nautical charts rely on observation and GPS data rather than hearsay like “according to him”
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K3NRX

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2023, 09:26:25 AM »

I wish!

V
K3NRX
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K6OK

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2023, 09:56:42 AM »

It still shows up on current navigation charts of that area as 11 feet above MHW.

11 feet is too high, isn't it?  A quick Google produced a nautical map that shows low double digits as the depth of water in the lagoon. 
Wikipedia: "The shoal's highest point, South Rock, is 1.8 m (5 ft 11 in) above sea-level at high tide."  That sounds more like it to me...

Depending on which model is used and actual CO2/methane emissions between now and 2100, sea level rise is estimated around 1 to 2.5 meters, so it's reasonable to guess that Scarborough will be submerged most of the time around 2100 or so.  Plenty of time to reactivate Scarborough.  Chinese military, will you kindly allow it?
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VA3VF

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2023, 10:25:58 AM »

Quote
...so it's reasonable to guess that Scarborough will be submerged most of the time around 2100 or so. 

That's assuming none of the area's claimants won't start pouring concrete on it to keep it above water, provided there is a benefit to it, things like Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) maintenance/expansion. Japan did/does that, the name of their rock escapes me now.
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K1VSK

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Re: Is Scarborough Reef under water yet?
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2023, 10:56:29 AM »

It still shows up on current navigation charts of that area as 11 feet above MHW.

11 feet is too high, isn't it?  A quick Google produced a nautical map that shows low double digits as the depth of water in the lagoon. 
Wikipedia: "The shoal's highest point, South Rock, is 1.8 m (5 ft 11 in) above sea-level at high tide."  That sounds more like it to me...
Regardless, it’s still there. And high tide levels are generally used only when clearance under a bridge is noted.

Quote
Depending on which model is used and actual CO2/methane emissions between now and 2100, sea level rise is estimated around 1 to 2.5 meters, …
I think the consensus is more like 1 to 2 inches but no one has ever quantified the effect of anthropogenic climate change so it’s a moot point unless you want to debate dueling models.
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