The price pressure that the new 710 and the 7300 are making in addition to "demographic" effects, I expect that the prices of used rigs will drop significantly in the next years.
You make a good point for yourself here.
I have been surprised that the old rigs have held their value so well. But, suppose you are correct and current old rig prices are a fool's paradise?
Well, then that means that an old rig, bought
today, is false economy because there is significant risk that it won't hold its value. Losing money -- lots of it -- on rigs at the upper end of the spectrum is old news. You pay 2000, 3000 dollars for a rig, you expect to lose a lot of that when you resell it four or five years hence. That is not something one has heretofore expected for the under 1000 class simply because there isn't as much money in the first place. But, in this current circumstance, maybe not. Especially as 7300s start to show up in larger numbers in the
used market.
If one's money is limited to begin with, then this risk makes the older rigs an even worse idea. Why buy a rig for 500 and then sell it for 250 a couple of years later?
Because, that is very likely what will happen if your judgement is correct. I know of virtually nobody that holds on to their first rig,
especially if it was bought used and budget overwhelmed other factors. Most of us do move up the line over time.
Would you rather spend 500 and sell it for 250 or spend 750 and sell it for 500? I can't say this will happen -- a lot of old rigs
have defied economic gravity. But, you yourself suggest they might not.